Thursday Forecast

112 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-29)…
Regarding the overnight wild weather (wind, thunderstorms, warmth), comments from you all are encouraged below, and I’ll be adding more later today, as my time for this update is limited this morning. As far as the forecast goes, no big changes for this update so will just move onto the updated forecast.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with greatest chances for sunshine mid morning to early afternoon. Early lingering rain showers and a few downpours Nantucket and Cape Cod. Scattered rain showers returning from west to east late-day. Temperatures falling slowly through the 50s. Wind SW to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of late-day rain showers. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)…
Medium range models still having some issues with the pattern but the leaning is now for a rain/snow shower potential March 1, fair March 2, a storm threat with a track more likely through the Great Lakes March 3-4 favoring rain here, and fair weather returning March 5. Will fine-tune in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)…
Trending colder including unsettled weather threats including mix/snow at least 2 times during the period.

112 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Tom good luck today. I heard Marshfield mentioned on news

    TK rainshine said she was hearing on ham radio….I believe…storms traveling around 100 mph. No?

  4. Question. Was there ever any danger of rotation in those storms. I know never is not realistic but I asking low low chance…because of time of year. Or is anything possible which seems to be the rule of late?

    1. With the intensity of those storms and the helicity available, yes it was possible, but not likely as it was missing high Cape values.

  5. Unbelievable event for you guys last night. 83mph gust at Blue Hill!! Probably the severe weather outbreak of the year for SNE, regardless of what happens this summer. Will be very hard to top, at least in terms of amount of areas meeting severe criteria.

      1. House shook for an hour or better. Sleep was out of question. There are some sleep deprived and grumpy grandchildren here this morning.

  6. Oh what a night indeed! Schools are closed in Coventry, CT due to numerous power outages and trees/branches down. The message from the school district this morning said there were 10 roads blocked in town. Fortunately I have power but there are still 66,000 without in CT.

  7. Good morning again. Amazing night!

    69 mph at Logan. I heard/felt that one. It was at least 60 mph at my house, perhaps
    a tad more. No Damage. No trees down in my area and not even any branches. They went down last time. 😀

    Pretty loud thunder and very bright vicious lightning. I like night time thunderstorms
    so long as there isn’t a threat of tornadoes.

    I have not heard of any of them rotating during the night? Anyone else?

  8. None of the storms rotated in this area. Top forward speed was 50 to 80 MPH. The 115 was a NWS error.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    What a night indeed! When I shut off my computer I had trouble falling asleep – got little sleep but stayed in bed a bit longer this morning.

    Besides the ferocity and the time of year for those storms, what really amazed me was the speed of the storms as they moved along. When TK said the storms weren’t 115 mph, that seemed more realistic – but I think he said in the earlier post something like 92 mph. That is still impressive, no matter what time of year.

    Last few mornings we have heard birds singing and this morning’s warmth makes it really feel like spring. But it’s still Feb. and I am not crossing snow off the calendar yet. It is still winter. I am glad everyone is safe; earlier I did see on tv there was some damage in areas.

  10. NWS says trending -NAO for late next week. This does seem to match TK’s thoughts on snow events for March 6 and beyond. We will see. Probably our last opportunity.

  11. At wayside inn Sudbury for breakfast. I mentioned to hostess that it was quite a night. She said yes but beautiful. It won’t Surprise you that I have written whw blog address down for her. She loves weather.

      1. Actually I think you should get the complimentary breakfast for promoting the blog. 🙂

    1. I was up for the storms. My lights flickered didn’t lose power thankfully. Those winds were gusting pouring rain lightning thunder.

    1. Boston at around 3am. I’m a very light sleeper so practically anything wakes me. These storms really woke me up. My cat was terrified.

      1. I was awake through 4:30 or 5. First it was the wind and rain (the whole house was shaking). The the vivid lightning and thunder along with more rain and wind. There were lightning strikes within a 1/4 mile of the house here. Surprisingly no damage…just one tired guy from Hingham.

      2. Lol yes, never heard or saw a thing. Was just talking to a few folks, and they slept through it also, yet 1 person said he woke up at 3am to it pouring. I guess it depends on light sleeper, deep sleeper. Wish it came through earlier, o well, next time. 🙂

  20. Slept through the whole thing last night. Apparently slept through my 7 year old coming in and waking us up! Lost a huge pine limb–about 2.5 inches in diameter and 8-9 feet long.

  21. Storms reminded me of the ones that came through RI and SE Mass in August, 2000, the ones that prompted the National Weather Service office in Taunton to take cover because a tornado was headed towards it! This morning’s storms weren’t that bad, but “freaky” lightning. It was as if the storms were moving too fast to cause severe damage.

    Just got done with my last class of the day on autopilot. Didn’t sleep much this morning. Bristol County, MA (as I posted at 4:30 this morning when I couldn’t sleep)…had five consecutive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from 2:40 am-5:00 am. And the amazing thing still…it’s FEBRUARY 25!

  23. I don’t ever remember a Thunder Storm in February except for Snow Thunder. Is this something that happens a lot or is it a fluke? My cat looked up once or twice but could not be bothered even though some lightning strikes were within a few hundred feet of the house. Hope you all are having a happy day!

    1. I don’t remember thunder in February but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened – my memory is aging. I’m not…just my memory 🙂 I wasn’t sure what the dog would do since we have not had him during a thunder storm but I didn’t hear any barking so that is good.

  25. Loved the wild storms last night. I knew before bedtime that there could be some thunder overnight, but I certainly didn’t expect that intensity! Thunderstorms are my absolute favorite weather phenomenon.

    That said, can we all cross our fingers for beautiful weather on March 11? I’ll be flying out of Logan that morning!

  27. Thundersnow (with thunder and lightning) happened last February during one of the storms. Jim Cantore was on the air in Plymouth and went berserk (in a nice way) when it occurred. Thundersnow (with thunder and lightning) also occurred in April 1997. That’s a storm that I’ll never ever forget. I’ve never seen it snow as hard as it did that night around 2am. I’m hoping for another March or April surprise this year. Not going to happen, of course.

    1. We had Vicious lightning with thundersnow and thunder sleet with the
      Super storm of 1993.

      I have witnessed thundersnow probably 20 times in my life, not exaggeration, but none as vicious as that 93 storm. we got 15 inches, even though it sleeted
      near the end. 😀

      1. I’m not up to 20 times but then I’m a spring chicken 😉

        Kidding. I have seen it maybe 10 times. December when ….9?…was really bad. December 9 1978 also.

  29. Just took a peek at the 12Z Euro.

    First of all, with the INSIDE RUNNER on 3/3, Euro already showing some
    elevated severe parameters!! A repeat performance? Way too early to say, but
    for one thing, the early hints are that there will be at least some thunder.

    Secondly, shows a really juiced up storm parked over Eastern TN, Western, NC.
    on the 6th. This could be another inside runner, but looking at upper winds, this one has a chance at least and it would be BIG if it materialized. Would be up here sometime on the 7th. Right 11 days out. 😀

  31. I have see thunder and lighting a few time while plowing. It’s crazy and awesome!!! Every time except Onec it was at night. The whole sky goes blues and the snow fall rates are incredible.

  32. Traveling north, near the Braintree split, headed to the Garden to see Bucks-Celtics. Haven’t been there in a few years, looking forward to it. On a bus because one of my daughter’s and her dance team are dancing on the parquet pre-game. I’m trying to introduce my wife and daughters to the Celtics roster, lol ……

    Passed through a pretty good shower in the Rockland area.

  33. Channel 7 said last nights thunderstorm complex happens once every 30yrs. Tk would you concur with this statement?

  35. Hopefully no repeat with that POTENTIAL inside runner middle of next week.
    As I said earlier we don’t usually get strong to severe storms in the overnight hours.
    First time in my life I remember have a severe thunderstorm watch and a severe thunderstorm warning in the winter.
    TK I hope you could do a post mortem blog on the severe weather last night. What was going on in the atmosphere to make the thunderstorms as strong as they were in the overnight.
    Many Thanks.

  37. Couple interesting tweets I found with regards to severe weather last night one from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan another retweeted
    Last night’s severe thunderstorm watch in Connecticut was the first in February on record

    severe thunderstorm watches across New England in February are roughly a once in 25 year event

    I am thinking Massachusetts has not had a severe thunderstorm watch in February but I could be wrong.

  38. I was wrong just found out from this tweet from NWS in Boston Massachusetts
    Many thanks to @NWSSPC: Connecticut and Rhode Island had their first Feb Watch last night. Massachusetts had one back on 2/22/1997

      1. This is non snow related Vicki.
        When were looking back at the end of year weather events 2016 this one will most certainly be talked about. This was a good size outbreak of severe weather even during the usual times when we do see severe weather.

          1. And most of did. It was totally awesome.
            My wife was scared to death! I enjoyed every minute of it. 😀

  39. Euro
    system 1: well to the north and weak, Maybe some rain showers monday
    system 2: inland run over the lakes crosses northern new england (rain showers)Wednesday
    system 3: pushed south (friday/Saturday)
    system 4: forms over southeast USA (upper winds look favorable to send it northeast)

    GFS
    system 1 well to the north and weak, some rain and snow showers
    system 2. forms over west virginia. moves south of the area digging in colder air and making its own. gives the region, snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain with a good snow storm for ski country
    system 3 goes south of the region (ensembles send it further north)
    Will not talk about the 4 storm as it just looks disfunctional
    Canadian
    system 1, to the north
    system 2 (2 seperate systems one forms over the lakes the other forms to the south merging southern storm becomes dominant. rain to snow for the area. (wednesday/thursday)
    then system 3 goes south of the region glazes eastern areas with snow.
    My point is that there are a lot of possible times for storms to give us snow. Nor Do I think it will necessarily be a quiet march.

    tk, is this a possible because of El-nino weakening???

  40. I’ve begun the 1st visits already, but this Monday and Tuesday are big days for visits. I would like to see what Wednesday had is in store, and just how much rain will fall?

    1. It’s crazy that one year ago it looked like Siberia around these parts with cold and chances for snow for the foreseeable future. I might add there was 2-3 ft across most areas, and I was having a heart attack, lol, ok, not really but you get my point. Personally very happy with our early start this year.

  41. Kids had not had their dog (will be 2 in March) during a thunder storm so I asked if he was bothered by the noise. They said he jumped up on their bed….which he never does…about 15 minutes before there was any indication of anything. Good warning system

      1. Funny what animals know and we do not. Years ago when there was an earthquake in the area …1990s…the horses where my daughter had hers all reacted. No human felt it as we were too far away.

  42. I can’t wait to see what the traditional times we see severe weather have to offer.
    This would be something if our biggest outbreak of severe weather for 2016 occurred in February a month you would not expect this to happen in.

  43. Slightly better news up north in ski country. Snowing at Bretton Woods – several inches overnight. They’ve had quite a bit of melting today, but at least it’s back to winter again. And, the coming week looks pretty good for snow-making and some natural snow. I’m going to plan ahead and spend a night up there next Thursday and do some cross-country skiing with a friend on Friday. Based on what I’m seeing in the forecasts they’ll have much better snow coverage by then than they do now. Of course, all is subject to change. But, it’s looking promising.

  44. I’m glad Eric wrote that blog and saved me the trouble. 😉
    Truth is, I’ve been feeling a little “under the weather” and running in slow motion… 😛

  45. Wasn’t expecting another windy deluge tonight by that’s what’s going on outside and has been a while. I know showers were in the forecast but this is like this morning.

        1. It’s bad…been raining for a long time and a hard rain too. The radar doesn’t show it as a heavy band but it is dumping rain and occassional wind blasts. Not what I would define as showers.

          1. They actually are showers, but they are lined up in a 3-mile-wide elongated band that has been centered right over Woburn/Winchester, points west and east, and moving straight west to east.

            1. Yeah pretty uncanny. I know I joke with you about Woburn being a magnet for this stuff and here you go HA. I see one strip just left and another is arriving…

  46. Get better soon TK! If you are still “under the weather” don’t worry about a new blog as we can take care of ourselves here until you are fully recovered. 🙂

  47. Good morning,

    Now I see the 18Z GFS was just an aberration, as per usual. Later runs back to a cutter
    for next week.

    Euro looks like Crap for the next 10 days, although it has a few systems
    passing South of us, so perhaps there’s a chance that will change and they come North?
    Nah, not going to happen.

    Our snow chances appear to be getting slimmer and slimmer.

  48. Interesting tidbits from the NWS

    Curious where in the climate record we’re ending up with the temperatures this winter? Find out with the top 10 warmest winters and the most number of 50 degree winter days! Still have a few more days to go in meteorological winter (December, January, and February), but expect we’ll still be in the top 10 – just a matter of where in the top 10!

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t1.0-9/12791075_955182804576091_2951354946309299017_n.png?oh=ccfacb6d3e8bff7b1d60b3290aa8190e&oe=575B002A

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/1916938_955182801242758_6614052392473720333_n.png?oh=4e5f9577ba6380859497d1a63b0380c1&oe=574DFB9B

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