Saturday Forecast

46 Comments

1:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)…
A split weekend with warmth and a bit of humidity today, then a cool and gusty Sunday. In between, the second frontal passage in as many nights will bring a couple bands of showers and even a few thunderstorms, with all activity occurring between dark and dawn. It will be a great weekend for outdoor activities, though a limiting factor on Sunday for some activities will be some potent wind gusts, so keep this in mind when planning. Another cool and breezy day will occur Monday, followed by a tranquil Tuesday. A system approaching from the west will bring at least cloudiness and potentially some shower activity by Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon then clouds move in from west to east mid afternoon through evening. Highs in the 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere, with a few interior locations reaching the lower 80s. Moderate humidity. Wind W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms west to east, ending before dawn. Humid. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower possible. Highs in the lower to middle 60s. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH becoming common during the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower possible. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunshine giving way to clouds late. Lows in the 30s with patchy frost possible in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)…
Additional showers possible early May 19. Fair weather expected May 20-23. Temperatures near to above normal and may end up quite warm on the May 21-22 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)…
Rain risk May 24. Shower risk around May 26-27. Fair weather returns at the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

46 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK
    Those thunderstorms should they happen don’t look impressive at all. Looking at 6z runs of American models best instability is west and southwest of SNE. Marginal risk for parts of the Mid Atlantic and general thunderstorm risk for all of SNE with the exception of eastern sections with the latest SPC outlook.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    1. Support this time is to the south and west and the timing is also not good for New England.

  4. First widespread 80s and maybe the first shot at 90 for May 21-22 weekend.

  7. Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (6:50 am EDT)
    1050 GMT on 05/14/2016:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 50.4 °F

    That’s a couple of mornings in a row where the starting water temperature was
    50 or above. Safe to say that the water temperature has officially reached
    50 Degrees.

    Next goal is 60. Wonder when we reach that? Somewhere around June 15th or so
    I would guess. 😀

  8. Thanks TK !

    Glad the weather worked out today, first Communion for our youngest daughter.

  9. Thanks TK. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF for the next 10 days, precip wise… Most places will be lucky to get a half inch of rain over that period as it stands now.

  10. Brief report on weather in Minnesota. Thought I wouldn’t see snow again until at least 6 months from now. Well, I did see snowflakes last night in St. Paul where temps dipped into the 30s by early evening. This Canadian front is not fooling around. It’s windy and cold outside. By the time I leave tomorrow conditions will be improving. Oh well, one cannot order weather like it’s on a menu, especially not in the northern tier of the U.S.

    1. That is a pretty serious trough and batch of cold air for this time of year, as you’re finding out. It’s probably the last legit shot of chill coming to the Northeast before the pattern changes. We’ll feel it here later Sunday, Monday, and early Tuesday. A few areas are going to see frost Tuesday morning.

      1. Gotta cover that bleeding heart again….thanks for the heads up TK

        Joshua, snowflakes? Fun ❄️❄️❄️

  11. According to the latest climo data for Logan, the average snowfall is now 43.9″.

    TK – Is the 0.1″ increase due to the record snowfall from the previous winter being calculated into the 30 year average?

  12. Fantastic day! I was out running errands. It is beautiful.
    72.1 here in JP. Love it!!! It has a great beat. I rate it a 98.

  13. nice day out, parents getting patio stuff out while Im at work, hopefully, when I get home the table is set up so I can study outside.

  14. Went out golfing for first time this year today. What a beautiful day today. I am going to enjoy this now since 3 H weather will be here before we all know it.

    1. I’m in the minority on this one, but I love the HHH too. Classic summer days ending with those red ball sunsets, or isolated t-storms around. Maybe a line of storms if you have an approaching front.

  15. I do enjoy tracking thunderstorms. Last year we really didn’t have a lot of thunderstorm days. From everything being said fans of 3 H weather this looks to be your summer after the past two summer’s where we really didn’t have too much in the way of 3 H weather.

    1. In theory there should be a lot of t-storm days this summer. This does not necessarily translate to a wet summer, as I think the types of storms we get will be associated with air mass heating and fast-moving disturbances.

      The first half of the warm season (now through early July) will probably feature a lot of northwest flow disturbances.

      The second half of the season (mid July to September) will probably see more air mass type storms bubbling up in heat and humidity.

      And at any time you can have your frontal activity.

  16. TK I know you mentioned derecheo was possible late spring early summer but do you see most of the thunderstorm as pulse type or more organized thunderstorm chances this summer?

    1. Should be a split, with the organized being favored early, and the air mass and pulse later.

  17. Clouds moved in here a bit ago as forecast. 72 with 50 DP and wind gusting to an occasional 15

    It was a beautiful day. First cookout get together here

  18. Was reading about another fan being injured by a bat at Fenway. Time to get rid of maple,bats. I was not interested that hitting is considered single more difficult thing to do in sports

      1. I hope it isn’t anything else. I have serious problems with standing records of those who set them using skill being broken.

        I haven’t followed Ortiz so don’t know if you are joking though

  20. He was on the list for testing positive before they put in all the testing and penalties that are in place now.
    I dunno, it was really more joking, but he does have a history. I hope he’s not juicing, but you never know.

  21. Am i hearing thunderstorms west of here through central mass? I’m in Burlington and hear short rumbling but can’t tell if it is fireworks or thunder

    2. Westford had their annual Apple Blossom Festival and at the time you wrote this, the fireworks finale was happening.

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