Thursday Forecast

71 Comments

1:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)…
Today will be dominated by easterly flow from high pressure to the northeast of New England, which will then turn southerly ahead of an approaching cold front on Friday which will bring some scattered showers. During this time the remains of what was once briefly TS Bonnie will pass harmlessly out to sea south of New England, as had been anticipated. High pressure builds in for a great Saturday but quickly gives way to low pressure approaching from the west Sunday, which will bring a chance of rain (timing uncertain at this point). By Monday, this area will be on the back side of the system, the center of which passes to the north early in the day, with a moderate westerly flow but some unstable air, meaning that the chance of a few showers or thunderstorms will exist.
TODAY: Variable amounts of low ocean cloudiness, likely most prominent near eastern coastal areas of MA. Highs ranging from the lower 60s Cape Cod and immediate coastal areas of MA and NH to around 70 over the interior. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to around 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of scattered showers. Highs from the middle 60s South Coast and Cape Cod to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, upper 70s to lower 80s interior locations. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Increasing chance of rain. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs middle to upper 60s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight risk of thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)…
Another disturbance coming through a broad trough over the northeastern US brings a chance of additional showers June 7. Fair weather returns June 8 and 9. Progressive pattern brings the next disturbance and shower threat June 10 before fair weather returns June 11. Temperatures generally below normal from early through mid period warming back to seasonable levels by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)…
A continued progressive pattern dominated by a broad trough Great Lakes to Northeast will bring a couple of disturbances through the region with uncertain timing this far in advance. Episodes of wet weather would likely be brief and on the lighter side. Temperatures near to below normal.

71 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. TK, thank you and I am wondering if tomorrow’s showers will reach Boston and if so, when.

  2. Thanks TK !

    I think we may have an op run of the GFS (00z) that actually isn’t too bad. At 500mb, it looks like the trof – ridge – trof pattern that the ensemble mean showed a few days ago on TK’s post.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    And thanks for the addendum to my post on the `historic’ rainfall in France. You’re right about 150 years being a minuscule amount of time in relation to the age of the earth, or even in relation to the time between the last Ice Age and today.

    1. It’s still a very significant and impactful event, but I was adding some perspective. 🙂

      1. I totally get that events such as this can be used incorrectly to support the warming theory. Somehow we need to figure out how to get people to separate warming from destroying in their minds. I think the right is to blame because it closes its collective brain along with continuing to try to ease regulations on some of the worst pollutants we have. I think the left is to blame because it rams a theory down the throats of everyone that cannot be proven for the very reasons you gave, TK. In the middle of it all, the entire point is being missed; and therefore, nothing is being done.

        1. And the right dismisses all of climate change as
          malarkey, a Left Wing Hoax.

          I understand completely that the problem is determining how much of what is happening can be attributable to Man’s influence and how much can be attributable to normally occurring climate cycles.

          Climate cycles are there, no denying that. On the other hand man has been spewing crap into the atmosphere since the Industrial revolution and anyone who thinks that has ZERO effect has their head buried in the Sand.

          Therefore, I am with TK. Earth is the only planet we have. It makes common sense to do everything in our power to protect it and if that means spending money
          to clean things up, then so be it.

          1. It does make common sense….so where is the common sense because we are heading backwards in too many instances.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    In your discussion you stated: “Variable amounts of low ocean cloudiness, likely most prominent near eastern coastal areas of MA. “

    Ya think? 😀 😀 😀

    It SUCKS in the City. Driving in today I can see a light to moderate Fog bank Right along the harbor and draping over downtown buildings. It is PUTRID!!!!!
    Low clouds, light fog. All we need now is the fackucta drizzle and that wouldn’t
    surprise me.

    Then to add insult to injury, through June 16th Below to “Perhaps” near normal
    temperatures.

    End of rants and complaints for the rest of the day.

    How bout Mookie Betts?

    2 more homers in his first 2 at bats last night, which gave him 5 home runs in 7 at bats. Pretty astonishing. Too bad they lost, but they can’t win them all.

    It also looks like after a spectacular first appearance, Joe Kelly has settled into his old self, a simply HORRIBLE PITCHER. Thankfully, we have Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez to go along with an improving Price.

    I am optimistic for a great season and a run in the playoffs and hopeful that there
    will be a World Series appearance. 😀

  8. Thanks for the update TK. I see that you responded to my post from yesterday. I understand that much of the shower activity early to midweek will be diurnally driven. However, will we see much in the way of sunshine during the Monday – Wednesday time frame?

  9. It looks and feels like it does at the ocean today, in Hudson, NH. That ocean influenced marine air is here 🙂

    1. I said that to my daughter when I went out this am. It does have that cool, rawish, ocean feel.

  10. Loving that ocean feel and the blanket of stratus that defines the marine aspect of eastern New England. And now ironically some clearing will come….from the east. You can thank the east wind for the partial or more sun that appears at times.

    2. Honestly, it felt so good to be outside, I didn’t want to go into the office 🙁

  14. The fog that’s enveloped Boston’s skyline this spring (and summer) on occasion has been pretty awesome. I’m not a fan of fog, but to see layers of clouds shroud the tops of buildings, and have there be multiple layers at different heights is a sight to behold for a weather nut like me.

    Political rhetoric on the right and left has harmed our discourse, even when the debate is supposed to be scientific. There was a time not too long ago that many Republicans were environmentalists. Grand ideas about national parks, sanctuaries, and wildlife preserves mostly came from Republicans, intent on “conserving” our land. Conservatism did not (does not) mean unbridled capitalism. Conservatives led the charge to declare that where appropriate our government must take regulatory action to ensure we are prudent stewards of our country’s resources, commercial or otherwise. Yes, even Richard Nixon could be counted on as someone who firmly believed in protecting our environment. Sadly, in my opinion, times have changed. And this is not only a critique of new manifestations of conservatism which have blind faith in the market as a self-correcting device for everything. American liberalism has veered in a direction that I believe is unhealthy for a constructive dialogue. To declare all of our environmental woes as man-made and vilify scientists who dissent from the conventional wisdom view is wrong, plain and simple. Democracy and freedom of expression implies that all people – libertarians, Tea Partiers, religious conservatives, mainstream Republicans and Democrats, atheists, socialists – are entitled to a viewpoint and that we respect one another’s differences. Moreover, government is not the solution to all of our environmental issues. In fact, being prudent stewards should begin at the level of the individual as ultimately we’re responsible for our fate. Not our government, not the U.N., not even God.

      2. Well, I’m trying to imagine myself in a debate with Bernie and Donald. Because some of my funding for my research comes from the drug industry I’d be persona non grata in Bernie’s view. “Joshua’s in the bag of Big Pharma, and you know what they’re trying to do to us in this country, destroy us root and branch, all those millionaires and billionaires atop the corporate structure of this insidious, corrupt industry … And Joshua takes money from them to do his research! Don’t believe anything that man says because it’s tainted. What we need is a government takeover of the industry to give it back to the people, a political revolution!” And because of my academic credentials and attempts to be civil I’d be a “loser” in Donald’s view: “We need to win, you know folks, winning is everything. We’re not winning anything right now, people. And with Joshua, you know, we’ll just continue to lose. We’ll talk a lot, but we won’t be cutting deals, folks. And it’s deals we need to cut. Uuuge deals, as big as Trump Tower. People love me, they love a winner. And we’re going to win.”

        1. I could hear Bernie and Donald speaking your words in my head – excellent! You’d be better than both of them!

        2. Excellent again. I’d love to have a conversation with you about the pharm industry to figure out if there is a disconnect between those who do the research – who in my opinion we owe more gratitude than we can ever express – and the roadblocks I see set up in the lobbying end of the picture.

          BTW – I’ve not seen Bernie other than respectful in debates so I think it would be interesting to hear you one on one with him.

          1. Ive been in pharma R&D for 20 years, we’re not the boogy man.
            Talk to the hospital administrators about how much they charge us to do clinical trials. You’d be astounded. That’s where the money goes on the R&D end.

        3. I don’t agree with everything Joshua says, but from my experience here on the blog, he is a voice of reason, which is a very good thing.

          😀

    3. Excellent commentary. I do believe that we have veered too far. My party shifted right out from under me while I was watching. And I firmly believe every group is entitled to an opinion. However, it seems to stop there. Every group is also has an obligation to work with other groups toward the best possible outcome for our country….compromise is dead.

      I also agree wholeheartedly with your statement …”In fact, being prudent stewards should begin at the level of the individual as ultimately we’re responsible for our fate.” The sad part is we are totally incapable of regulating ourselves which has forced the government to step in.

  16. Re: Red Sox, some news regarding “Just Another Joe”

    BALTIMORE — Following a 13-9 loss to the Orioles on Wednesday night, the Red Sox optioned right-hander Joe Kelly to Triple-A Pawtucket and recalled right-hander Noe Ramirez from Triple-A.

      1. I Guess SOE.

        We replace an 8 something ERA with a 5 something ERA.
        An improvement, IF you would like to call it that.

        We might as well call up my 8 year old Nephew.

  18. Checking Environment Canada I noticed that frost alerts are still up for many locales in Newfoundland. It’s been a relatively cool spring there, and that trend has carried over into the first two days of meteorological summer. Of course, our weather is barely impacted by that happens in Newfoundland. This said, the Labrador Current traverses around Newfoundland and dives southwestward towards Maine. This will impact water temperatures along the Maine coast. Also, when we get a northeasterly wind over still cool ocean water our weather will obviously be impacted somewhat.

  19. I’m not complaining about this weather one bit. I can’t stand heat (and especially humidity), so sunshine and temps in the 60s is perfect for me. Besides, my office shuts off the AC at night, so when its too warm outside, it gets too warm inside for me to work.

    Bonnie is finally a TD, or at least looking like one finally. I don’t care what NHC says, that was NOT a tropical storm this past weekend. Of course, it’s just going to head out in the open waters of the Atlantic, only a threat to the fish and fishermen. We’ll have to see what happens in the Gulf next week. Most of the models have something, and luckily not heading towards Texas, where they don’t need any more rain.

    1. Fortunately, we are not all the same.

      Imagine the world if we were all clones of each other.

      I was never impressed with Bonnie.

      Hey, I knew a girl named Bonnie, in fact 2 in the same town, 1 class apart
      in high school. 😀

      1. I had a neighbor named Bonnie for a couple years. She had a giant crush on me and I wanted no part of that. I felt bad though. 😛

  20. Quick read of the NWS out of Taunton discussions maybe some thunderstorm chances early next week.

  21. I’d say the temperature here is spectacular regardless of what number you put against it.

  22. Something neat to see on the visible satellite pic now as the low clouds retake eastern areas. Further, tomorrow in the morning as the surface winds shift to south and then southwest, the low clouds will change direction and it may be visible at least partially on visible provided there is not a solid middle overcast above it, blocking the view.

    1. Sun and blue sky with whispy cirrus still overhead here but fascinating clouds building to my east and somewhat southeast.

    2. If something is partially visible on the visible doesn’t that mean that it is also partially invisible on the visible?

      1. Well if it is invisible, it would be impossible to tell if it existed. Perhaps, what we see is all there is. And of course if there are middle clouds…..well, that’s all I can do after a mojito so you are on your own 🙂

        1. Although now I wonder what would happen if it were not a solid middle overcast and only a partially visible solid middle overcast.

          Pssstttt see what happens when you get me started 😈

  23. Seeing there is a discussion of an Environmental issue and as I have worked in a hospital I have some good ideas about that to.

    first off with what Im studying.
    Yes republicans use to be environmentalists but they were a certain kind There are three major types of Ethics Or environmental philosophies..
    Republicans now a days more resemble Egocentric ethics (grounded in the self): the ethic of “freemarket” capitalism, private entrepreneurs, and corporations
    whose primary goal is maximizing individual self-interest or profit from the development of natural resources.

    then there is

    Homocentric ethics (grounded in the social good): the ethic of
    conservationists, environmental justice activists, eco-socialists,
    social ecologists, and sustainable development advocates
    whose primary goal is social justice and/or fulfilling human
    needs ( this is what past republicans that Joshua is referring too.)

    Ecocentric ethics (grounded in the whole ecosystem):
    the ethic of preservationists, land ethicists, deep ecologists,
    spiritual ecologists, and many indigenous people’s movements
    whose primary goal is maintaining the stability, diversity, and
    function of healthy ecosystems

    With each one there are subgroups. Such as myself I am a scientific Ecocentric ethic (eco- centric is where most ecology and biologists fall)

    there is a major difference between conservation and Preservation.

    Joshua look up the different ethics I have listed and you will realize which one you fall under.

    The change in the environment is yes a natural cycle but events that should be taking much longer, is happening in a very short period of time, We have more carbon dioxide. We are experiancing the start of the largest mass extinction this earth has seen and humans are the asteroid.
    we are seeing 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, which classifies a mass extinction. Background rates generally is one to five species a yea.

    So please tell me again how humans do not effect our planet. With climate change happening at a rate that species can not adapt fast enough habitats being destroyed, by humans, where CO2 is the highest we have seen since the last mass extinction. of this magnitude….. IN the dino’s .. Please show me your information and facts that its not human caused.

    with the hospital

    1. with the hospitals, I hear alot of things about how expensive the drugs are that they need but most of the expensive stuff is covered by insurance. Part of the reason for the increase in the drugs, is because hospitals need to now deal with people that are not really sick but try to take advantage of the freaking AC and Heat depending on what season it is. I have not disliked obama but there is alot of things to be fixed with the health care system.

        1. my point is that hospitals are trying to make up for the increase amount of people going to them that would not have gone. I can not tell you how many times I see patients just walk into the ER that have nothing wrong with them

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