Tuesday Forecast

78 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A small area of low pressure comes up the coast today and delivers some rain to the region. Fair weather returns for the balance of the week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 52-64, warmest southeastern areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 40-48. Wind light NE becoming variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 50-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 35-42. Highs 48-56.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 35-42. Highs 50-58.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 35-42. Highs 50-58.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Rain risk November 20. Turning windy/colder November 21. Fair and chilly November 22-23. Watch a possible storm system for Thanksgiving but low confidence this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
A little more active weather pattern may bring a couple storm threats.

78 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NWS has a special weather statement for possible flooding today.
    Looks like the small system is set to Deliver. 😀

  4. A couple of newer tunes.

    The Head and the Hear, Rhythm and Blues

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U_mCn4JXpE

    The shelters, Rebel Heart

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1G_5cDlWeM

    I only occasionally post these, but I found these 2 most enjoyable and I am hoping
    some here may like them as well. If not, no harm, no foul.

    Have a wonderful day all.

    Looking forward to Winter and some snow. “Hopefully” we’ll at least get some.
    Would truly LOVE a white Thanksgiving, but it’s not likely.

  5. Saw the extended forecast go out to the 25th. I thought to myself “wow that is far out the n time”. I then realized it’s the 15th holy shit is this month flying

    2. don’t remind me, im falling behind on school work and physics is giving me a run for my money… its worse than chemistry

      1. Sending healing thoughts your way TK! I know how much you love the holidays so I sure hope you are 100% soon.

  7. lots of time between now and then but here the differences in models for around Thanksgiving
    Euro (hour 216)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111500/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png
    EURO (Hour 240)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111500/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
    EURO tracks over southeast mass ( to warm of us for snow)

    EPS ( EURO Ensemble)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111500/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Takes it south

    00z GFS (snowy)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111500/gfs_T850_us_40.png
    the GEFS does not have it
    The 06z gfs now has it as rain with the lakes system being dominate then secondary development and it just spins out in the Atlantic. Shooting periods of rain

    an active pattern possibly forming yes, I just don’t think it will be in the form of snow or at least accumulating sno

    1. Probably not. We shall see.

      I no longer have my Euro Service as They required payment
      through PayPal. I cancelled my PayPal subscription because they
      supported Trump.

      I may be able to pay them by check. I am looking into that.

      1. On a related note, we were shopping at TJ Max last evening
        and my wife found a great top that she really liked.
        She looked at the label and saw that it was Ivanka Trump
        so she promptly threw it on the floor.

      3. hmmmmmm – I have a dilemma. I didn’t know they supported Trump. I won’t go to Chick fa lay or however it is spelled because of their treatment of gays. I am not sure what I’ll do without paypal. I’ll have to struggle with this for a bit.

          1. Info on PayPal:

            Paypal Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel is an official Trump campaign surrogate but is no longer directly involved with Paypal as a company and does not sit on its board. Given his current non-involvement with the company and given that many small businesses rely on Paypal for purchases, we’ve chosen to move Paypal to the Not Boycotting at ths Time part of the list, despite our objections to Peter Thiel’s involvement in the Trump campaign & overt role in normalizing a racist / misogynist.

  8. Thanks TK and feel better.
    Will watch around Thanksgiving as GFS seems to be going back and forth with some accumulating snow for the interior and a rainorama.

    1. We shall see, but generally speaking, too early for snow anywhere near the coast. Sure it could happen, but odds favor not.

      1. I agree and 0z GFS that came out last night was depicting an accumulating snow for the interior. I remember back in 2005 there was a White Thanksgiving at my house and the Boston area and coast got plain rain from that same system.

          1. I remember Thanksgiving 1989 as my first White Thanksgiving. It snowed through a good part of the morning and had to shovel the driveway to get to my grandparents for Thanksgiving dinner.

    1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.fcst.gif

      I would say, if these 2 projected teleconnections end up being this negative in about 10 days, then there’s definitely increased storminess possibilities that have a chance of a more southerly track, underneath us.

      Taking climatology into account that it will only be late November and above average SST, odds would favor rain near the coast, but moderately inland areas probably would have an opportunity at frozen, given that continental dry air or maybe even some polar air would be closer to New England at that time.

      1. That makes perfect sense. Inland, yes. Coast, nope.
        The only way the coast has a chance at any snow is IF
        the winds turn more Northerly as a system pulls away.
        Then the question would be how much moisture would be
        left hanging around.

        Depending on the precise track of a system and its precipitation shield it is certainly possible, but that is what would be needed.
        Any component off of the water spells RAIN. The SST is 54 Degrees. That is still a FULL 22 Degrees above freezing.
        We need that temp to get down to at least the low 40s for a chance. OR we need STRONG and cold Arctic Air in place.

    1. From NWS:

      * Bands of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms may result in
      localized urban street flooding late this morning into early
      this evening.

      1. JPD…thoughts on heavy rain in the Kingston area between 4 and 6? My younger son’s football team is Super Bowl bound on Sunday and they are supposed to practice tonight. Just want the coaches to be prepared. 🙂

        1. Does not look good.

          HRRR radar reflectivity

          4PM

          http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_005.png

          5PM

          http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_006.png

          6PM

          http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_007.png

          Of course, this does not mean the HRRR is correct, but combine this with the NWS doom and gloom forecast,
          chances are good you will be in for quite a bit of rain and much of it rather heavy.

          best of luck.

          1. I’m ALWAYS skeptical of NWS doom and gloom forecasts when it comes to rainfall amounts. Looking at the current radar, the bulk of the rain is well to the west with scattered bands rotating into eastern sections. This does not appear to support those 1-2″ amounts but who knows what it will look like later today.

          2. Thanks JPD. Would hate for any of our players to get hurt due to field conditions. We need them ALL for the big game on Sunday. 🙂

        1. Sure looks that way. Hey it’s still out there. Perhaps enough cold air will sneak in and mix down to the surface.
          12Z Euro does NOT appear to have precipitation heavy enough for that to happen, but one never knows.

    1. yes I am, but would like to include Northern mass as well for Wachusett as thats where I usually start my season and go if I only have a short time and can not make a full day of it.

  14. Area of heavy rainfall coming through SE MA and approaching Boston. Between now and sunset is when we get most of our rain.

  20. .95 here last I checked. I assume is closing in on an inch.

    I had to turn heat on for second time and only for about 10 minutes – just to get damp chill out.

    1. Very interesting.
      Fat chance of that verifying.
      I’m willing to bet it is gone on the 0z run. We shall see.

  27. As Matt alluded to, 18z GFS is a potent nor’easter for Thanksgiving night into Black Friday with snow and wind for SNE and rain changing to snow even on the coast. And to boot, with a blocking pattern in effect, the storm just sits near the benchmark for 3 days, throwing snow back into the area as it just spins and dies out.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016111518&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=128

    Snowmap has a foot or more for much of interior SNE and even 6″ into a good portion of Boston Metro:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016111518&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=299&xpos=0&ypos=299

  28. With NAO and AO squarely negative next week, I could totally buy the scenario of a cold coastal storm with interior snow and rain ending as snow on the coast…..though perhaps not of the strength and duration that the 18z GFS is depicting.

  29. 0z GFS says no to a White Thanksgiving. One thing consistent with the GFS is a system has been showing up around Thanksgiving for several runs now. More runs have shown wet rather than wintry.

    1. Then it spawns a coastal storm 3 days later with interior snow changing to rain. One thing for sure…we will be entering into a colder and stormier pattern next week.

  30. Sunday night/Monday looks very windy and cold after the storm passes with a few snow showers, temps in the 30’s, and wind chills in the 20’s. That will feel frigid after the string of 60 degree days this week!

    1. I’m referring to the storm this Sunday 11/20 (not the potential storm(s) over the Thanksgiving holiday period)

  31. One thing you are all forgetting with these model snow maps – they usually assume a 10:1 ratio. That does not usually hold true, especially with early season storms.

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