Thursday Forecast

167 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)
Caution! Watch for ice on any untreated surfaces early to mid morning! This will improve as temperatures warm up by late morning. Low pressure pulls away today and is replaced by a weak ridge of high pressure by Friday into the weekend. This high will largely block an approaching low pressure area Friday night and Saturday which will only be able to send some cloudiness to the region but have most of its precipitation split and sent well north and south of the region. A much larger low pressure area will approach the region late Sunday and Monday, with precipitation likely holding off until Monday. I say precipitation, because even though the current indications are for mostly rain, we may be dealing with some freezing or frozen precipitation for at least a portion of the event over interior locations. Details will be ironed out.
TODAY: Decreasing clouds / increasing sun. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-27 rural and suburban areas, 28-33 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45 Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 40-48.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-26. Highs 38-45.
MONDAY: Storm arrives with rain/wind, and the potential for some mix/ice interior areas. Lows 30-38. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
Large storm system will likely continue to impact the region January 24 with mainly rain. Milder, drier weather January 25 but a chance of rain showers January 26 as low pressure passes north of the region. This may set up a colder and potentially stormy scenario by the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Watch early in the period for potential of snow/mix, otherwise mostly dry and colder.

167 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Can’t believe I am still able to use my AC for heat this late in the season AND it looks like I will be able for a while. Saving some big money!

    1. We discovered our one minisplit uses far more electricity than we do with oil. Our electric bill was up 200% last month. Does your system not use electricity?

  6. An ice grey sky this morning. It is lovely. We have a resident little red fox seen both yesterday and today the same time running along ridge behind our house. Son in law also heard him screeching this am. Eerie sound from something so little.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Although the temps dipped slightly below freezing overnight, NO icing on my walks or
    on the street. Thin icy layer on the lawn.

    It is January 19th and I am wearing the light jacket and have been except for
    4 days that I was forced to wear the heavy coat. Amazing Winter. btw, I’d wear the light jacket when others would prefer the heavy coat as I can’t stand driving with a heavy/bulky Winter coat. I mean it drives me NUTS!

    On the storm front. Here’s hoping the Monday system draws in some sneaky cold
    and it tracks just far enough East to keep winds more NE than E such that we
    get some surprise snow in here. Yes, I am fully aware that would be a long shot at best. A couple of more days for tweaking.

    re: the storm the end of the month. The 0Z Euro LOST it completely and totally.
    It does NOT exist on the Euro charts at all! Amazing. We shall see if it makes a return appearance on the 12Z run. 😀

    1. I’m right there with you on driving with a heavy jacket. I never wear even a light one. Drives me nuts too. Feels as if I’m in a straight jacket.

      On a weather note, we sure have a lot of ice/freeze/possible ice in the forecast this winter. If we could just drop that temp a couple of degrees. Maybe it is the hair dryers we are using…heating up the New England air/atmosphere.

  8. Thanks TK!

    There’s a lot to look at over the next couple weeks. First up will be the big storm early next week, and how that transpires. Hard not to be a little disappointed as a snow lover seeing such a beautiful storm turn up the coast and just having no cold air at all to work with. But that’s what we’re looking at for most of SNE at least. Rain and wind event. That storm helps usher in a “pattern change” to somewhat colder by later next week, although we probably still have above normal temperatures through about 1/30. I agree with TK, we have to watch for a colder storm with a better chance for frozen precip by late month. Not something the models will get a grip on for several days, certainly not before we see how the big early week storm plays out. But the upper air pattern looks to be near ideal for an East Coast winter storm. And then, as usual, things get muddled around day 15. If you’re looking for prolonged colder weather, shield your eyes from the day 15 GFS ensembles. Not a pretty site, with retrograding western ridge setting up the return of the western trough and the Southeast ridge, something we’ve seen played out several times already this winter. I’m not committed to that idea yet, but that’s what we’d be looking at.

  9. No black ice where I was this morning but the fog was intense. Worse fog I’ve seen in a long time.

  10. Looks like a hot summer coming if western trough holds and south east ridge stays oriented where it is.

    1. It’s been mostly sunny here all morning. Temperature is responding rapidly.
      Up to 40 at my house already.

  14. Hmmm

    I would like to point out that the 12Z GFS has trended colder still for the Monday
    System. Here are a couple of charts as of 90 hours or 1AM Monday.

    850MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011912/gfs_T850_us_16.png

    Surface, which also includes the 540 line

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

    Now of course IF the storm comes up hugging the coast, it will wipe that
    cold out so fast we won’t know what hit us. But, still I find the set up intriguing.

      1. Brings the storm up the coast, but off shore enough.
        850 0C line comes up to “just” North of Boston.

        Of course this is one model, BUT clearly this one has
        trended MUCH colder. May still be mostly rain right at the coast, but significant snow “just” inland.

          1. Then eventually it moves way up North even.
            That seems odd with center off shore???

            I guess it finally erodes the influence of the Maritime Cold High.

  15. 12Z GFS final snowmap (Kuchera Method)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017011912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

    Not a coastal snow event, but far far better than previously depicted. Some nice snows
    for the Ski Areas. NOT a tremendous dump, but very nice none-the-less. QPF WAY
    down from some previous runs, but still a significant Winter Storm.

    Now, let’s see what the Euro and even the CMC have to say.

    It’s still 3 days out so there is wiggle room here. I am fascinated at the extent
    of the cold Maritime Canadian High. That is exactly what would be needed to see
    this become more of a SNOW event. We shall see. At least there is some hope
    and certainly now something to watch.

  16. gfs comes in cooler yes, but shows a lot of Freezing rain and sleet from Interior Northeast Mass (Merrimack Valley) down into central mass and into the berks with a light snowfall in these areas. Near nothing along and east of I95 in terms of snow and Ice. Very sharp increase in snow around rt2 points north going from 4 inch inches to near a foot in a snap. ( knowing that region well because of my grandparents makes sense)

    1. True, But my point is that it is clearly a colder solution and now offers
      some hope for snow whereas previously it had much more rain involved.

    1. Personally, I would say DRY! Precipitation starting somewhere around 11 PM to 1AM or so, but there is probably some wiggle room there. If it speeds up
      a tad, could start while game is in progress or if it slows down some could wait
      till 6 or 7 Monday AM.

  20. Here is the Euro Snow Map (Proprietary Method, so who knows) for the Monday Storm:

    http://imgur.com/a/kb8zd

    Euro just a tad too tight to the shore for any decent snow near the coast, however, quite a thumping of Snow for up North which is nice for them.

  22. Getting tired of sleet and freezing rain – hoping for some SNOW. I’m guessing that might come at the end of the winter – but then it will melt faster. I am keeping an eye on our blog and all your comments regarding models and such – maybe it will bring some snow! 🙂

  24. Get the snow area to come down just a tad further south so I could get into it. Both 12z EURO and GFS shows accumulating snow north of me in northwest hills. There is still time for a shift south.

      1. Bookmarked the blog and why have you been keeping it a secret. 😉

        I love the way he thinks. And it is probably a really, really bad sign that reading something like this makes my day.

    2. agree with this a lot, I believe its natural that we have climate change but all signs point to human activity being the main corporate of it happening during this time and the rate at which its happening.

    4. EXCEPTIONAL. Did I yell? I meant to.

      I like the 50% group. It truly does not matter whether man is causing the climate to change (which it is). What matters is that we clean up what we can and there is a whole hell of a lot we can clean up.

      I would like the terms climate change and global warming erased from our vocabulary because it sets of alarms ringing in heads of too many – especially politicians – and with the sound of the bells, they are totally and completely unable to hear reason

      As a person who denies climate change a simple question. You will never get an answer. I’ve asked it on this blog as well as other places. The question is should we clean up what we have done.

      1. That is ASK a person and not AS. I am far from a person who denies it is changing. I just have reservations about man being the main cause.

      2. global warming Yes, climate change deserves to be in the vocabulary. Global warming was a phrase originally just stating that the overall global temperatures were warming, then it was being misused by the government. Should be called Human advanced climate change or Human Induced climate change

  27. I am not in camp snow for the vast majority of southern New England really at all for the early-week system. I do continue to feel that the models will be fine-tuning a potential snow event for the weekend of January 28-29.

    1. A bunch of my colleagues are taking a dip in the Atlantic at Nantasket Beach on the 28th. I won’t scare them yet with the news of possible snow. 🙂

      1. They scared me with their plan. Although I am assuming it is a fund raising event? I know your company does some really great things.

        1. LOL…yes, it is a fundraiser. I gladly support them by holding their towels and blankets for the after shock.

          1. Good for them and I’d be standing right beside you! Mac and I used to stay at the hotel right across from the beach. We’d get groupon deals. It was always great fun. They can always wear wet suits????

  29. SAK-Awesome read! Thank you!!

    Early week system is not going to be a snow event for SNE at least for the areas where most people live and will not be as precipitation filled as some of the models have suggested.

    Later system either snow or a miss. I don’t see any other options at this time.

    1. AS long as they get their fair up North, I’m OK with that.

      And of course, the later storm will be a Miss. 😀

  30. I know this is the 18Z NAM and it is beyond it’s wheelhouse, but it is interesting
    to see the extent of influence of the Cold Canadian Maritime High building down
    over NE and pushing colder temps all the way to Pittsburg.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017011918&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    That main low is sitting under a 500MB closed low.

    Expect the coastal to get going about on the SC/NC coast. Then what?
    Ahh, the umpty million dollar question.

  31. 18Z GFS has a system without much precipitation. 😀 Seems to be running into
    that maritime high and losing its punch.

    1. No offense Matt but NASA is openly one sided on issues like this. Not saying it’s a bad read but I wouldn’t use that as a primary source. Whenever budget season rolls around at NASA the earth is baking and they find “proof” of water on Mars.

        1. You are so snippy and far from scientist material. Looking at other viewpoints and maybe changing yours (I know the terror right?) is a hallmark of a good person of science. Have fun tomorrow #maga

          1. I am asking for your source, I am asking for a primary source that you use. you are saying Nasa is not a primary source, so please show me what one is.

          2. Is there a reason you need to attack Matt. He was quite polite with his request. You could have easily posted your comment to SAK or TK or me.

            If you would answer the question I asked, I’d sure appreciate it.

          3. I am not going to go politics on this blog to respect TK wishes, but for those who do not know. MAGA hashtag is the symbol of a certain someone’s catch phrase.

        1. of course, we have the technology to even reduce the emmisions of power plants, exxon just hid it for 20 years.

    1. im not sure climate change is political. I think of that as weather. Only one comment was political I think

    1. Time outs work. :). Sorry…..it truly was a respectful discussion for the most part. It makes me sad, but I suggest we put it aside.

      1. I’m moving on right now after my reply below.

        I trust that the audience is mature enough to do the same. 🙂

        1. Oh my. I wasn’t suggesting you out it aside. I suggested the rest of us do out of respect for you. Sorry if my wording was off.

          1. I know that. I’m just moving it on myself.

            I think if anyone has not read the link that SAK posted, they should.

  37. It’s so sad how the climate change issue has been hijacked by politics. We’re flushing our future down the drain. I enjoy posting about the monthly/yearly climate summaries and occasionally pointing out the tangible impacts of climate change in our daily lives. But I rarely if ever actively engage anyone on the topic, it’s not worth my time, especially someone who’s only reply when confronted with the facts is #maga. And with the current administration coming in, I’ve fully accepted any action on climate change in the US can expect at least a 4 year delay. I wish our new government the absolute best of luck, but our new federal officials are almost unanimously either totally opposed to climate science, or reluctantly accept it and will be unwilling to act. I’ll just focus on trying to get the 5 day forecast right…

    And the original post SAK shared by Brad Panovich is definitely worth reading. Brad is a must follow if you’re a social media type. Personally I think his post is a little too neutral, but I don’t disagree with anything he’s said.

    1. I must admit any time I see anything posted like that I just know that politics is going to come crashing right in. It’s why I don’t post all that many links here.

      For some reason, the vast majority of humans cannot keep politics out of anything, and often religion. I fail to understand it.

      1. The sad part is it does not have to be political. It never did. I am an old lady with a decent Amount of common sense, but this is one thing I will never understand.

  38. A whole lot of wind off the water with the Monday/Tuesday system will have a significant impact on precipitation type here in southern New England.

      1. Somewhere, but it may not be all that widespread. The surface may end up fairly mild in a lot of the region except early in the storm.

        1. Just having trouble getting it done. Well, there is still time and if not, we have had a ton of beautiful daya

  39. Amusingly, I posted the link to the blog by Brad P. on a page I am on that has a lot of young enthusiasts that have no formal education in meteorology, stated that I was not posting it as a way to initiate a debate on climate change, but asked if they did decide to debate it to do so in a civil manner.

    They have been thankful for the link we have no political-based mudslinging going on there. So there is hope for the future of the internet at the moment. 😉

      1. I have been trying my level best to stay out of any political commentary. I could easily go off the deep end and get tossed and that is something I do not want to happen.

        I have been really reigning myself in because this is a weather blog and I don’t wish to destroy it with a political agenda. Believe me I have one, but not for here. 😀

        Now can we just make it snow? Yeah, I know. Not in the cards!
        Well how about a new shuffle?

        1. I love all weather but there is maybe always an exception. Ice is not my favorite. It is just so dangerous. So snow it should be.

          1. My truth Vicki-I believe winter weather and ice get plenty of coverage and most likely too much. While the # 1 weather killer is often silent but deadly. Flooding.

            1. Oh my goodness, thank you JMA! I was in New Orleans for Katrina and after that, I developed a new respect for water. You can move snow; you can wait for ice to melt. But water, not a thing you can do.

              1. It wss truly a horrible event. Mismanaged to be sure but I’m not sure that even managed well could have been anything except a horrific disaster

            2. Oh I agree. And honestly there are far more dangerous conditions than ice. I was thinking of this area and was wrong to not be more specific. Snow and ice are nothing compared to flooding and also tornadoes and earthquakes and major hurricanes To mention a few. I’m not entirely sure about too much coverage for snow and I think ice earns coverage as well if one parses the info but cannot totally disagree.

  40. I just want 2 block buster Nor-easters that batter our coastline that dumps a foot or more of snow for my area. Enough with these messy storms, this storm could send rain/freezing rain all the way up into ski country 🙁 I was going to go this weekend to NH to do some skiing before the semester begins but not sure since it could turn to freezing rain which is awful

  41. With the latest runs I am more pessimistic for any snow chances. I am now worried that it may rain or ice even up North. That would be a crying shame. No biggie if it rains in SNE, but please let it at least SNOW up in Ski country.

    NWS is playing this storm up big. We shall see.

    OH, and another thing….. Follow-up storm for the end of the month is not yet showing up on models. Wondering IF that is fast becoming a lost cause as this Winter is as well.

      1. Actually, best I can tell energy for storm comes on shore on West coast around 1 AM tomorrow and rapidly traverses the SW across the gulf states to the SE states.

    1. TK please never apologize. It is important to take care of you and also do what you need to do.

      JPD I agree re ice or rain north of here. Sister in law said the got about 4 inches in Bow NH area but six in sunappe area. Good ski year!

    1. Thanks JJ. The slight/marginal goes up into GA where my sister in law is. Also a lot of people traveling to that area for the game Sunday.

      1. Maybe and hopefully it will interrupt the travel of the Snob NFl commissioner . The coward should have been here and act like a real man but I suspect he doesn’t like to get booed . Did anybody know there is a movie coming out on that I think it’s called four games in fall. Kraft is still very bitter over the entire thing . Good article on today’s Bostonchannel wed site .

        1. IMO, its time to let all that stuff go and move on. He’ll be back around at some point. But the rehash over that stuff is more than I can stand.
          They are most likely going to the super bowl again, so in the end, none of it mattered.

          1. I’m in complete agreement, Blackstone. The team isn’t focusing on this and there is little reason for us to. I could care less whether he is here.

            I think it will be a tough game Sunday.

            1. I also meant to add that I was listening to sports radio yesterday and was surprised to find out Brady had thrown 27 picks in his last 22 playoffs. I also was a bit concerned with how he looked during the press interview the other day.

              1. It’s the same number for Ben in the playoffs . Regarding the press conference Mike lynch said Brady had a cold and it would absolutely not be an issue as he looked at other big games where he was sick and put up big numbers .

          2. I sure hope they do but I’m sorry this is far from a lock as the boys need to play a mistake free 60 minutes of ball . I’m very nervous playing Pittsburgh and they are not the same team we beat in the reg season .

  44. Looking at the 12Z NAM, by the time this next storm system really gets organized,
    the center is Waaaaaaaay too far inland for any glimmer of snow hopes around these parts. This is disgusting. Doesn’t matter that a cold Canadian High is building in,
    this system WILL flood the area with warmth and RAIN. I fear for up North as well.

    We’re having a heat wave, a Tropical heat wave!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=078

    1. HMMM, in examining the frames from hours 75 through 84, the center
      starts moving DUE EAST along and just North of the NC/VA border.

      Is the HIGH exerting its influence and “blocking” this system from moving Northward? Suppressing heaviest precip to the South??? 850mb 0C line
      wavering back and forth from the Boston area to slightly North of Boston.

      Now, I am confused. Anxiously awaiting 12Z runs of the GFS, EURO and to a lesser extent, the CMC.

      Interesting.

      Hour 81

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=081

      hour 84

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

      When I look at the frames, I see a NOTICABLE drop off in precipitation
      between hour 81 and 84.

    1. Interesting, but what he describes “could” possibly lead to a period of sleet
      and not necessarily snow. It also depends on the temperatures at levels
      above 925MB. It “could” become interesting INLAND, at least for a portion
      of this event. We shall see how it all evolves.

  46. Northwest Hills of CT Berkshire Worcester hills to me is the best shot for wintry precipitation with this event. We have seen surprises before so lets see what happens.

  47. 12Z GFS is a CRAPFEST, if one likes or wants snow. I feel for the Ski Industry.

    Can you say: INSIDE RUNNER? Hope so, because that is what you are getting.
    A fucuckta inside runner, just what we need. Brings WARMTH all the way to CANADA!!!!

  49. I’m not surprised that the GFS “backed off” on northern New England snow. I was more surprised by what it was showing yesterday.

    To me, this has always been a storm surrounded by a warm environment AND it will be the first storm this year that has a big gradient, so the marine influence will be in play well inland.

    1. Sure, but I think the bigger problem is the INSIDE TRACK of this belligerent ill-behaved system! WOW!

      I must say, I am not surprised. That Maritime HIGH would have ONLY helped
      IF the storm took an OFF SHORE track. Looks to be very little chance of that
      happening.

      Still, I certainly want to see the Euro and to a lesser extent the CMC.

      I would guess they will show something similar????

      Who knows. The NAM looked to be different than the GFS??? So perhaps
      one of these models will see it differently??? We’ll know soon enough.

      1. And add to this, the end of the month system so far looks to be
        an imaginary storm. 😀 GFS showing something in the 2/2 to 2/4 time frame, but that’s way out there.

        1. It will say babble, babble, blubber, babble, babble….

          Based on what I saw on the 0Z Euro, it will show
          either an inside runner or an over the top of us
          system. Either way, fuggetaboutit.

          I’d like to at least see a nice wind event with the RAIN.
          High tides are astronomically low, so not much danger
          of serious coastal flooding.

  51. This was always going to be a rain event. Take the QPF. If this pans out, I should be right around or above normal for the month in precip.

          1. A. It’s taking the low south of New England.
            B. You’re assuming a forecast 3 days beforehand isn’t going to change any more.

            I don’t care what the models are showing right now. How many times this winter (or ever) have the models gotten the details like this exactly right 3-4 days in advance?

            I’m a meteorologist, not a modelologist.

            1. I understand that completely. No one is arguing that point at all. I was simply posting what that particular model showed.

              What you point out is so true. It is very dangerous to hug a model without applying some meteorology and experience to it as well and you, TK and JMA do that very well.

              😀

  56. I would be happier today if we were having a good old snow storm and were able to track stuff rather than seeing rain…..

  57. I’m not really impressed either with what follows the early week system as far as cold. Yeah, it gets chilly, but the true polar and arctic air is still lagging in far, far northern Canada.

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