Thursday Forecast

131 Comments

7:27AM

THUNDERSTORM REVIEW
Many of you saw some incredible pictures and videos of thunderstorms that rolled across much of the region late Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. For the most part, these storms were not severe in eastern areas, but there were a few reports of damage in southern NH and more areas of damage where storms contained more substantial hail and powerful winds in western and west central MA. An isolated downpour/thunderstorm popped up near Concord and Acton MA around 6PM Wednesday well ahead of the main line of storms, which was just entering central MA at that time. This isolated storm, while never becoming severe, organized itself into a super cell storm, which then split into 2 storms. This is something that is seen fairly frequently especially in the Plains and Midwest, and occasionally around here. Often when this happens, there will be a counterclockwise rotation of the storm on the right side and a clockwise rotation of the storm on the left, which is often the weaker of the two. In this case, it was the clockwise-rotating storm on the left that maintained its intensity while the other member faded away. Eventually, the surviving half of the storm did dissipate as well, but not before providing a spectacular view, especially to its north, where a sharp rotating storm tower was visible, dark grey in the shadow of clouds from the main line of storms to the west. That made the storm look more menacing for a time before it weakened and dissipated, but not before dropping some heavy rain and hail and causing some gusty winds along its path between Concord and Lowell and into the region just beyond Lowell in the Merrimack Valley. The main line came along behind this, impacting different areas to varying degrees depending on its strength as it passed by. I happened to drive up I-93N to Methuen MA where I intercepted one of the stronger parts of the line at the time it reached the area (around 8:30PM) and encountered some gusty wind, downpours, small hail (about pea sized) and a number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. I then followed the weakening storm back down I-93S as it moved away to the east giving me a little bit of a lightning show.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)
So, what’s ahead now that June is here? Basically more of the same weather pattern we’ve been in, but there will be some nice weather too. The first 4 days of this new month will not be all that bad, with only passing shower/t-storm threats from a couple fronts moving through the region today and Friday. When we get to Sunday we’ll be watching approaching low pressure from the west. There are many graduations and other activities planned outdoors for Sunday and the timing of the onset of any rain will be critical. At this time I continue to feel that it will hold off until the very end of the day or night for most of the region, but will continue to monitor this. That will be the beginning of what may be a lengthy period of cool/damp weather that will bring additional wet weather for the end of this 5-day period.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 66-73 South Coast, 74-80 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered midday and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 64-73, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Lows 53-60. Highs 60-67.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Lows 48-55. Highs 56-63.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)
A very cool and unsettled period of weather with the cloudiest and wettest likely to be at the beginning but very slow to break out after.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)
Drier weather expected but temperatures still likely running on the cooler side of normal.

131 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Awesome discussion. Mama Mia shared one of Eric’s links from that storm. Fascinating but anything that rotates is a bit scary to me

  5. Thanks TK, and thanks for the summer outlook as well, a great read. I was wondering if that storm last night could be considered a “cell split”. Thought so, but also thought it a bit strange since I wasn’t really expecting that. But that makes sense given how the rotation was working.

    June 1, a busy weather/climate day around here. 6 years since the Springfield tornado, the start of meteorological summer, and the start of hurricane season.

    1. Seems like yesterday we had the Springfield tornado.

      My Son-In-Law’s cousin had his house flattened in Monson by that storm.
      All were well, fortunately.

      That was an amazing long duration tornado, fairly rare in these parts.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Excellent thunderstorm discussion. Eric showed a video of that counterclockwise
    rotating storm. Pretty impressive to say the least. Very fortunate it didn’t produce
    damage.

    Here are some “Deep” thoughts by JpDave (to steal a line from SNL)

    1. Today is Thursday.
    2. Any day you wake up is a very good day. (Nope. No health scares, just stating the
    obvious)
    3. I believe Boston gets a Thunderstorm this Afternoon. I just feel it (right or wrong)
    4. Pomegranate pitched another really fine game (2 in a row) and perhaps has
    turned the corner. Boston has the makings of the absolute best pitching staff in
    major league baseball. (4 lefties no less. I don’t believe that has ever happened in
    Boston and perhaps no where else.)
    5. This year more than ever, I have the fishing bug. I grew up with it and then got away
    from it for years. Picked it up again the last few years. Still awaiting that elusive
    monster fish. Other than a couple of decent carp of 8 and 12 pounds, the largest
    fresh water fish I have caught is about a 4 pound large mouth. The state record
    is 15 pounds, so that 4 pounder, although a nice fish, is a far cry from a monster. 😀
    The majority of bass I catch are 14-19 inches in length and 1 pound to 4 pounds in
    weight. The rest are smaller ones.
    6. I am off this afternoon, so Probably won’t be posting, even if in the midst of
    a thunderstorm.

      1. Fascinating article! Thank you for sharing. I guess there have
        been more lefty heavy rotations than I thought.

    2. I like your #2 especially. And will hope for your line to be busy this afternoon.

      I posted the link of the video eric shared……credit to Mama Mia for sharing it here. It is above.

      1. I am blocked from viewing it, but I saw it last night.
        Absolutely Awesome video. One for the ages.

  7. That low in Southern Quebec is still in a favorable position for juicy weather
    in SNE. We shall see if there is enough moisture available to pop some decent
    storms. I Believe there will be.

      1. Or how about Alanis-I-Wrote-An-Entire-Song-About-Irony-Without-Understanding-What-Irony-Is?

        Isn’t it ironic? Don’t you think?

        Apologies for my sarcasm – I just prefer the Beatles and Clapton I guess!

  9. June 1 is also the finals of the Scripps National Spelling Bee.

    This year’s winner will have to spell “covfefe”…

    “Covfefe…
    C-O-V-F-E-F-E
    …covfefe”

  12. Now NWS has come around more to the SPC line of thinking.

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    7AM update…
    Weakened cold front has nearly stalled across E MA/RI draped
    down to LI this morning. Aside from some leftover convective CI
    and localized fog/stratus several locations already seeing AM
    sunshine. Only caveat to this will be Islands/Cape cod later
    this morning as a deck of stratus S of LI shifts E. Most likely
    to lose the sunshine will be Nantucket.

    However, this sunshine combined with modest leftover mid/low
    moisture should yield enough instability this afternoon evening
    given lapse rates are generally the same as they were yesterday
    as the driest air is still held back into NY. Therefore, will
    continue to follow mesoscale guidance trend for another round of
    scattered showers and thunderstorms today but this time focused
    closer to the front as it shifts E (mainly across E MA/RI).

    These are likely to be much less widespread and more spotty
    given that drier air will be entraining from the W. Still cool
    air aloft and well mixed BL does suggest the low risk for a
    strong storm or two as things pop. Will be adding gusty
    winds/small hail to the wording with this update. Timing is also
    likely earlier than yesterday as the front will be shifting
    offshore through this evening and limiting the lift needed to
    maintain the storm

  14. Latest HRRR and 3KM NAM indicate convection in the Boston area around 19Z or 3PM.
    Let’s see if it verifies. 😀

  15. Thanks for a great post TK! And what a gorgeous day – I agree with JpDave – it is glorious to be alive on a day like today – or any other day too!

  16. Thanks Tk.

    Let not have any rain from 5-7. Boys have an outdoor school performance.

    JP Dave amen to #2. Every day alive is a great day.

  19. It’s dark here in Sudbury; sky is quite picturesque. Doppler radar getting busy; looks like just showers but I don’t know. Also wind has picked up here.

  20. ok – I’m going to say this very very quietly and please don’t tell anyone…..it is raining in Sutton. But it smells wonderful!!!

      1. We got about 6 drops of rain under an ominous sky. Looks like on radar most of the rain is south of where I am – you might be getting more. Enjoy! 🙂

        1. There is a cell right over us. And it is raining hard. Slowed down a bit but still consistent rain to the point a small river is running down the street. Sky is awesome. Dark clouds, mixed with pure white towering clouds and bright blue sky.

  21. Holy moly, what a drenching this is … Getting stronger as it passes through, gusty winds !!

    1. Must be same cell that went over us?? And it was intense. I just drove a 5 miles north to a farmstand that opened for the season today and it was dry there.

  23. There was good instability for these showers/storms to work with today so there you have it. That’s why I had them in the forecast. Isolated to scattered, but potent in some locations.

  24. Ohhhh – I hear thunder – YAY

    And rainshine I don’t think I can push them north but will try

  27. Thunderstorms? NOT.
    Not here anyway. Not yet. Something is on the horizon, but it is passing mainly
    South of my area, unless the Northern extension of it blossoms.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.33260869565217394&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=356.4052287581701&centery=280.58823529411757&transx=-43.5947712418299&transy=40.58823529411757&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24939130&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. The storm that hit Plymouth area was pretty decent. A friend recorded part of it. 😉

  28. Something rather rare is part of Boston’s May stats…
    Anyone care to guess what it is?

    1. Here are 2 wild guesses:

      #1. Record number of precipitation days.
      #2. Record number of below average temperature days.

        1. @(#&*$*(@#&($&@(*#$&()@#&$(*@&#($*&!@#*$&@*#$*@#&$(*@#&(*$&@(*#&$(*@#&$(*@&#$*(@&(*#$&@(*#&$(*@#&$(*&@#(*$&(@*#&$*(@&#$(*@&#(*$&@(*#&$(*@&#($*&@(*#$&(*@&#$*(&@(*#$&(*@&#$(*@&(*#$&(@*#&$(*@&*(#$&(@*#$&

          Ok, I give up.

          Least number of sunshine hours?

    1. Agree, looks pretty dicey, but hey they are skiing on it.
      Pretty cool. Just wonder how much machine snow it took to accomplish this?

      1. They typically bury that trail with 25 feet of snow each winter (mix of natural and manmade)

    2. This just makes me smile ear to ear. Guarantee my dad was there enjoying the day and date

  30. Great guesses so far but nobody has it here….
    I posted the same thing on a page I’m an admin for on FB and it took about 1/2 hour for someone to come up with it but not until I posted this and told them the answer was somewhere in the first 4 columns.

    STATION: BOSTON MA
    MONTH: MAY
    YEAR: 2017
    LATITUDE: 42 22 N
    LONGITUDE: 71 2 W

    TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND
    ================================================================================
    1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
    12Z AVG MX 2MIN
    DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
    ================================================================================

    1 48 45 47 -6 18 0 T 0.0 M 9.2 15 340 M M 10 1 18 340
    2 66 44 55 1 10 0 0.19 0.0 M 8.0 28 280 M M 8 13 35 260
    3 64 49 57 3 8 0 0.00 0.0 M 14.8 25 290 M M 4 36 310
    4 56 46 51 -3 14 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.8 24 110 M M 6 27 100
    5 51 47 49 -6 16 0 0.64 0.0 M 11.4 23 60 M M 10 12 27 50
    6 65 49 57 2 8 0 0.10 0.0 M 10.8 24 140 M M 10 12 30 160
    7 64 50 57 2 8 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.6 25 170 M M 7 34 160
    8 55 44 50 -6 15 0 T 0.0 M 13.5 24 220 M M 7 29 230
    9 52 42 47 -9 18 0 T 0.0 M 7.3 16 110 M M 6 19 120
    10 55 47 51 -5 14 0 0.00 0.0 M 9.1 16 110 M M 8 18 90
    11 54 48 51 -5 14 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.3 18 90 M M 7 22 90
    12 53 47 50 -7 15 0 0.01 0.0 M 8.3 16 80 M M 6 1 20 90
    13 53 45 49 -8 16 0 0.02 0.0 M 11.9 21 90 M M 8 24 60
    14 51 46 49 -8 16 0 0.95 0.0 M 17.9 26 20 M M 10 1 34 360
    15 61 47 54 -4 11 0 0.07 0.0 M 14.2 26 350 M M 7 35 340
    16 81 55 68 10 0 3 0.00 0.0 M 12.2 20 300 M M 4 26 300
    17 92 60 76 18 0 11 T 0.0 M 10.8 23 220 M M 4 30 230
    18 95 71 83 24 0 18 0.05 0.0 M 14.7 31 270 M M 5 3 42 270
    19 90 58 74 15 0 9 0.01 0.0 M 15.8 25 340 M M 4 38 33 290
    20 59 52 56 -3 9 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.0 20 90 M M 5 24 90
    21 61 48 55 -5 10 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.4 16 110 M M 6 20 100
    22 56 50 53 -7 12 0 0.12 0.0 M 8.0 17 180 M M 10 1 20 180
    23 68 53 61 1 4 0 T 0.0 M 6.5 15 350 M M 7 1 20 350
    24 64 54 59 -1 6 0 0.00 0.0 M 5.8 12 100 M M 8 15 90
    25 55 50 53 -8 12 0 0.63 0.0 M 15.0 24 60 M M 8 13 29 50
    26 60 49 55 -6 10 0 0.55 0.0 M 10.3 23 10 M M 10 13 28 10
    27 61 53 57 -4 8 0 0.00 0.0 M 9.2 17 110 M M 8 20 100
    28 67 54 61 -1 4 0 0.00 0.0 M 8.1 17 80 M M 8 19 80
    29 54 49 52 -10 13 0 0.05 0.0 M 10.4 17 80 M M 10 1 20 90
    30 59 49 54 -8 11 0 0.00 0.0 M 7.1 15 170 M M 10 19 170
    31 68 54 61 -2 4 0 0.06 0.0 M 7.9 21 240 M M 10 26 240
    ================================================================================
    SM 1938 1555 304 41 3.45 0.0 337.3 M 231
    ================================================================================
    AV 62.5 50.2 10.9 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH)
    MISC —-> # 31 270 # 42 270
    ================================================================================

      1. Well I didn’t figure it out, I saw the information elsewhere, so
        I think it only fair that you spit it out. I was shocked to see it.
        Never would have guessed it.

        1. Ok. I’ll let it sit for a few and post the answer sometime before 7PM unless someone else figures it out.

    2. Trump hasn’t been impeached yet?

      Oops, I’m sorry, did I type that out loud??

      How about lowest water temp?

      3. The Paris agreement was a wealth transfer and did very little to mitigate global temperature rise. It’s good for the us to remove ourselves from this agreement. We could do so much more for our children’s environment and globally with that money rather than pay others to f–k us over. I wish people would start doing some thinking on there own.

        https://twitter.com/newshour/status/870049910380314624

        1. The Paris agreement was a wealth transfer and did very little to mitigate global temperature rise. It’s good for the us to remove ourselves from this agreement. We could do so much more for our children’s environment and globally with that money rather than pay others to f–k us over. I wish people would start doing some thinking on there own.

          https://twitter.com/newshour/status/870049910380314624

      4. The Paris agreement was a wealth transfer and did very little to mitigate global temperature rise. It’s good for the us to remove ourselves from this agreement. We could do so much more for our children’s environment and globally with that money rather than pay others to f–k us over. I wish people would start doing some thinking on there own.

        https://twitter.com/newshour/status/870049910380314624

          1. Oh sorry. Dozed odd there for a moment. I think too much sun makes me sleepy. What Paris agreement

      1. I meant Day 18. I was thinking it had something to do with greatest departures from normal for the month.

  34. Greatest departures from normal high temperatures for the month (with all the high temps averaged).

    2. Pretty neat isn’t it. I would NOT have guessed in 100 years. Perhaps IF
      I had seen the raw data, eventually, I may have stumbled onto it, but I
      tried not to cheat until I gave up.

  37. 🙂

    I thought that was a really cool stat. I have gone back for several years and found no other Mays that have that yet.

  38. Boston had temperatures which averaged below normal for the first time since 2008.

      1. May, 2009 temperature departures

        Boston +1.6
        Brockton +1.5
        Jamaica Plain +1.4
        Blue Hill +1.1
        Hyannis +1.0
        Worcester +0.8
        Nashua +0.5
        Providence +0.2
        Lowell -0.2

        1. SAK or TK. I have mentioned 2011 and am not sure if anyone has given departures for June of that year. Also June 1982. Is there a link or do you have these numbers in your database

          1. Vicki.

            For monthly data ….

            Go to Taunton NWS website ….

            About a 1/3rd of the way down, click Climate and Past Weather

            Then click NOWData (the 7th tab)

            Next to #2 is product … click daily data for a month

            Next to #3 options … type in year and month, for example 1982-06

            Next to #4 view, hit go

            1. June of 1982 was 4.4F below average at Logan. August was slightly cooler than average, highest temp of 87F. July was the one month above average and had a 4 day heatwave, with temps of 92F, 97F, 98F and 98F.

              1. Hi Tom – just returned from an event at grandson’s school. Thank you. This is great. I am not at all surprised to see June 1982 that far below average. I have copied and saved your instructions. Now to just remember I have them!!!!

  41. The Yankees are leading 11-2, probably to the delight of some other people here, but this Boston fan is not happy! Especially after the Red Sox saw a pitcher they traded give up just 1 run against them in 7 innings.

  42. It’s the GFS, which has been hot garbage lately, so take it for what it’s worth, but the 00z run has nearly every day next week with rain or showers and temps in the 50s. We bust our Friday with temps near or just above 80 next Fri-Sun, then into the 90s Mon-Wed.

    1. at day 10, hr 240, on 00z EURO, warmth taking over in New England with heat building in the Great Lakes.

      1. Euro Ensemble shows no signs of any heat here through 15 days. Zonal flow after about Day 7. Wouldn’t that be a change?

  43. Good morning. Beautiful morning today.

    Eric says more showers and possible T-storms this afternoon.

    SPC has us in a general thunderstorm risk only.

    1. Some of the cumulus clouds yesterday looked awesome. We didn’t see many of them Wednesday because the low clouds didn’t clear out in time.

            1. From NWS:

              .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
              7am update…
              No significant changes necessary this morning. Timing of upper
              lvl shortwave and secondary weak front have not changed and
              instability parameters still suggest a mix of showers and
              isolated thunderstorms. The cold mid lvl temperatures also could
              support some small hail with any storms that form. Will mainly
              make adjustment to skies/temps/dwpts to account for current
              trends but given that POP timing seems reasonable, will not be
              making any changes there.

    1. Perhaps aided by the “other” seabreeze in New England where winds are southerly along the south coast and would add some convergence to the approaching disturbance from the NW.

  49. Very quick update posted with no real changes. Will re-update later. Crazy day in progress.

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