Friday Forecast

84 Comments

9:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)
Unsettled day today as a warm front struggles through the region while low pressure moves along it. Humidity heads up during this process. Areas of rain result, with a few pockets of heavier rain. A cold front will cross the region Saturday but with more limited moisture to work with the coverage of any showers/storms will be low. High pressure builds in with great weather Sunday. A warm front approaches Monday followed by a cold front Tuesday, but this time the warm front may be less active and the cold front more active. Time will tell.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Slight chance of showers. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms morning and midday, isolated thereafter. Lowering humidity later in the day. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 60-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-88, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-84.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-86.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)
A fairly typical stretch of summer weather is expected with moderate to at times higher humidity and several opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures variable but averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)
Trend to drier and hotter weather expected.

84 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    When you say drier and hotter, do you mean drier precip wise or humidity wise? Thank you!

  2. Thanks TK
    SPC has a good chunk of SNE in the marginal risk for tomorrow. Will see if this changes when this is updated around 1:30 this afternoon.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Bad hair day. Not that I care, but in this kind of weather my curly hair gets bent out of shape.

  5. Whether or not Boston gets the absolute heaviest rain remains to be seen, however,
    looking more and more like boston gets a decent amount. IF I were Eric, I’d have a bottle of Tums ready for after he eats his suit. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Well, perhaps he’s chief met at channel 4 for a reason?

      Lest HRRR has 0.34 for Boston and 12Z 3km NAM has 0.35

  8. Models latching on to tropical wave strengthing later next week coming across from Africa and into or north of the Caribbean. Something to watch.

  10. Marginal risk area pretty much the same for tomorrow from the SPC.
    Isolated strong to marginally severe storm at best tomorrow.

  12. Interesting discussion from the Taunton NWS re: Tomorrow’s possible convection.
    Tornado Ted is on duty. This time there “may” be a bit of merit towards his concern.

    However, models continue to slow vort-max and attendant cold
    front, sliding across S New England now between 17Z and 00Z. The
    slowing of the sfc front allows H5 temps cool below -12C,
    yielding reasonably steep mid lvl lapse rates around 7.0C/km.
    With sfc dwpts still in the mid-upper 60s, this should allow for
    CAPE values to reach 1500-2000j/kg in spots ahead of the
    approaching front. Combine this with 30-40kt of bulk shear, and
    you have a reasonable recipe for strong-severe convection as the
    front approaches. Soundings somewhat moist with PWATs near 1.50
    inches. Given this, straight-line winds in organized storms
    along with a risk for wet-downbursts are the highest risk.
    Shear, steep low lvl lapse rates per latest soundings, and low
    LCLs within the low lvl moisture, also suggest a low risk for a
    spin up should storms organize enough to begin rotating.
    Mitigating this risk, is the fact that hodographs are more
    linear as the shear is more speed driven rather than directional
    (hence the higher risk for straight-line or downbursts). Heavy
    rain, as always still a risk given some indication of back-
    building storms. Overall, a potential convective day which will
    need to be watched, especially if the front slows further
    allowing for further destabilization.

  15. There is some solid potential for severe storms in a few locations tomorrow.

    So here’s a little thing I thought was amusing today. One of the local news stations at noon had the meteorologist contradict herself 2 times in 2 sentences, saying the best chance of heaviest storms would be not only from the late morning to early afternoon, but during mid to late afternoon, and also late afternoon to early evening, each time making it specific that the greatest threat was then.

    I also wish the NWS would stop using the term “spin-up”. If you feel there is a risk of a tornado, say “tornado”.

    1. Totally with you on both counts.

      Usually Taunton NWS way over does the “spin up” or “tornado” threat, but
      they “may” actually be onto something for tomorrow. I swear there is at least one staff person there who wants to mention spin up or tornado every stinken time there is even the remotest chance.

      What are your thoughts? I know the threat is fairly low, but I do not believe it to be zero.

      Thanks

    2. You should hear me at home if “certain” TV mets are on air.
      I am screaming at the TV and I mean screaming. The whole neighborhood
      can hear me! NEVER happens with Eric, Barry or Harvey. 😀
      AND if I ever did catch something on any of them, I cut them ample slack. 😀

  16. Another question for TK.

    The NWS mentioned the threat of the “spin up” 😀
    Then said that the shear was more speed shear (change of wind speed with height)
    rather than change in direction with height.

    I thought that I read somewhere that on occasion there can be tornado formation
    with sufficient wind speed shear with height. Is this so? OR did I mis-remember or come up with an incorrect conclusion?

    Many thanks

    1. There can be, but directional shear is far more helpful. You still need to get horizontal rolling to somehow result in a more vertical spin, either by tilting it, or creating “feeder” spins that lead to it if it’s low enough.

    1. No wash-outs, but be prepared for a worst-case scenario, which would be 1 or 2 heavy storms, passing, but containing lots of wind, torrential rain, and lightning, and possibly hail. That’s worst case.

  18. Regarding the threat for tomorrow, Here is the latest from the SREF.
    Significant tornado ingredients:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

    Also tornado parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f027.gif

    So, clearly there is some small risk. This is only 5%. I believe the SREF
    had 15% for the Revere tornado, but for our area, there has been an F0 tornado
    in the area highlighted by the 5% from the Sref. For our area, it has actually been
    pretty good with this.

  19. 0.29 inch at my house in JP and end is very near. A feather in Eric’s Cap please. 😀

      1. 0.37 inch in JP, which is what 15 miles North or NNE of you???
        What a difference a few miles makes. 😀

  21. When the SREF highlights an area keep an eye out. It does a good job at sniffing stuff out like that.

    1. 18Z NAMs indicating risk of tornado as well.

      I guess we’ll have to watch tomorrow. Any risk is still low, but non-zero.

      Not going to be a tornado outbreak by any means, but I wouldn’t be surprised
      if a rotating storm or 2 dropped an F0 or F1. We shall see.

  22. Interesting that neither the Upton, NY or Gray, Me NWS offices mention the word
    “spin up” or “tornado” in their most recent technical discussions. 😀

  23. How ’bout that rain on the Cape today! Yowza; several reports came in of over 3″, some over 4″. GFS with a fail as expected. But a good call by several models on bringing that heavy rain axis onshore, and a good call by the NWS on the Flash Flood Watch yesterday and multiple warnings today.

    I agree with TK on tomorrow; there’s good potential there. Tomorrow’s main limiting factor is mid-level dry air. Should it move in too quickly and in excess, it could cut off updrafts and prevent organized storms. That is a real possibility. However, with good instability and significant shear (mainly speed shear, as you guys discussed), damaging winds and hail are possible if organized storms develop. The tornado threat is low enough not to warrant a mention IMO, but as we know you can never quite call it zero. Just have to see what pops up. As I mentioned yesterday, it’s possible this will be more of a northern New England show, and odds for thunder look better there. However, given the timing, for our area, I think eastern areas will be favored over western ones. So it could be interesting for many of us.

  24. I don’t usually talk about thunderstorm threats days in advance but something interesting could happen around parts of the Northeast about next Thursday. Something to keep on the back burner for the weekend then start looking at early next week.

  26. Storms are looks pretty juicy for 8 in the morning, no?

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=24991915&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    Fuel is building and sun soon to come out. DP up to 65 already.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/h5-mloop-wv.html

    Could get interesting later on.

  27. You already have a warned storm in the western part of NY state right near the boarder of PA. SPC keeps the marginal risk with the exception of south shore Cape and Islands and central and southern CT.
    From reading TK’s post from last night I may miss some interesting weather next Thursday as I will be down in Virginia.

  28. This no widespread event but as I said yesterday I think were looking at isolated strong to marginally severe storms.

  29. What I find interesting about today’s storms is that they seem to be in clusters all over the place and not in any organized line. I may be all wet, but I think that may
    translate into a better chance for severe storms later.

    DP up to 66 here, so it is plenty moist enough and this front appears to be offering
    plenty of lift.

  32. WHW account temporarily unavailable so I can’t update yet. Hopefully in a while, since I’m leaving for Maine for a while later this morning. 😛

    I think today’s activity takes the form of about 2 segmented broken to scattered lines. The first one may favor areas to the north, the second one to the south.

    NOT everybody will be hit. And of those that get something, most of them will see something shy of a severe thunderstorm.

    Set-up is good, but not ideal.

  33. Glad we didn’t see the 3-4 inch rain amounts the Cape got, but I’d venture we saw 1 to 1.5 inches in Carver in Myles Standish, most of which fell in a concentrated 90 minute period. Most of the campsites temporarily transformed into toe to ankle deep large puddles of water.

    I’m here in carvers town center. I had to drive out of the forest to see the sky cover and really see if there are any nearby towering cumulus. Hopefully, any storms will miss this location.

  38. Listening to the radio, just heard a severe thunderstorm warning issued for the line in southern and central New Hampshire. Very big warning as far as the area covered goes.

    1. Mesoscale discussions do not get “dropped”. They are issued and are valid for around 2-2.5 hours. They all have an expiration time on them. When that time hits (in the case of the one for here it was 1745Z), it does not show up on the page anymore.

      Mesoscale discussions are basically the same as the AFDs issued by the various NWS offices, but for a much more focused area – which is why they are “mesoscale”. NWS doesn’t “drop” AFDs, and they don’t “drop” these either.

  41. I’m in Burlington today, family friend had a birthday party. Hearing the first rumbles of thunder, but the storm itself missed me to the north. However, looks like 2nd round behind it will be a hit.

    1. It’s here. Pretty heavy rain, decent winds at the beginning. Cooked the air down pretty well too. Hmm, really started pouring as I typed.

  42. In West Roxbury. A few big rain drops here South of the main action. Missed out again.Update

  43. The cell in NE MA has produced a pretty significant outflow boundary, hopefully that starts something so other areas can get in on the action. I will say though, this has been a very fun summer after being shafted, by my count, 13 times a summer or two ago. Every storm that year was either going through the Lowell/Lawrence belt or headed down Route 2 or 20 into Boston.

    1. Line of individual cells behind it, almost training in a way but they may be on a boundary slowly moving SE, can’t make out the specific details.

      1. The cell west of Sutton has been taking its sweet time. Dark here but nothing more. Air absolutely still

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