Thursday Forecast

225 Comments

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
The fragmented remains of Irma will traverse the region through Friday with a few opportunities for showers and even thunderstorms. During this time a weak cold front will also make its way into the region but fall apart in the process. By the weekend, weak high pressure will regain control of the weather. The overall pattern has shifted to one of above normal temperatures.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
The overall idea remains for Jose, as a tropical storm or hurricane, to remain offshore and pass somewhere between the US East Coast and Bermuda, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Overall pattern favors mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures.

225 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Picked up 0.01 inch in that quick shower last evening.

    re: Jose
    Well, all I have to say is: FIIK

    (For those that don’t know that, it is Bleep IF I KNOW

  5. As far as spaghetti plots go, this feels like Irma in that each run right now is edging slowly further west and northwest, maybe 10 to 20 miles at a time.

    https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12

    These plots have an increased number that head into the Delmarva region.

    https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12

    The tropical models are now about 1 degree away from being at the benchmark. I believe this is the closest to the benchmark as a whole so far.

    1. I can tell you one thing it means for certain…..we will NOT plan to overseed lawn this weekend as we had originally scheduled.

      1. I was going to do that this weekend too, but it’s not the threat of Jose that lead me to postpone, but the outlook of dry and above normal temps for the next 2 weeks. Not exactly good grass growing weather.

        1. Agree and more reason not to overseed. We have an irrigation system but even with that running extra, it is just plain dry.

    1. Thanks JJ. Something to think about too with Jose. As it gets closer to our latitude and may be in transition to a hybrid type system, the wind field will be expanding (e.g. Sandy). Even if it’s SE of our area those winds could have far reaching effects.

  16. Gut tells me right now this is going to be a nasty Noreaster type storm. Curious in 5pm advisory if any part of SNE is in that cone of uncertainty.

  17. Good thing I decided to leave on Tuesday morning instead of Wednesday morning. Might be ok on Wednesday, but for my peace of mind i needed to change my flight out. Tuesday at 10 am out of Logan.

  18. Its really strange to watch the 12z GFS run because for every 3 hr panel that goes by, you might expect a big movement from a tropical system, but instead, Jose is crawling along, even at 36N latitude.

  20. My time frame for potential Jose impact is likely to be moved sooner.

    Don’t think it’s going to make second small anticyclonic loop. In fact in know it’s not. This was the uncertainty I made very clear.

  22. Early thought on Jose from Ryan Hanrahan
    The current forecast for #Jose reminds me a lot of Hurricane Edouard in 1996. Gave New England a good scare but mainly missed.

    1. I had quite a ride on a cruise ship from Boston to Bermuda during Hurricane Edouard. Lots of seasick passengers on that trip. When we arrived in Bermuda they were already selling t-shirts to cruise passengers that said “I Survived Hurricane Edouard”. The ship that was docked behind us had a piano go through a window during their voyage. I enjoyed every minute. šŸ™‚

          1. I love it…..good for you!!!!

            Mac said when they had home leave from Sweden, they took the Stockholm. One trip was in the middle of a horrendous storm. He said the boat literally had to struggle to climb up one wave and then would fly down the other side of the wave and do it all over again.

    2. In the words of the great Bill Belichick after the week 1 loss to the Chiefs, “Iā€™m not really interested in living in the past…”

  23. 12z UKMET has a mid-Atlantic landfall for Jose. It has consistently been the western bookend of the guidance. 12z CMC actually shifted east some. 12z GFS pretty close to the 6z run. I’ll be quite interested in the 12z Euro.

  28. Model consensus has Jose juuust to the SE of the benchmark. This is significantly closer than it was just 24 hours ago, but if you look at the intensity chart, none of them have Jose as a hurricane past 144 hrs

  35. This is a question for JPDave.
    I just got the Note8 phone. Not all my apps transferred over from the old phone, including the mobil app for Woods Hill.
    What is the link for me to download?
    Thanks!

    1. Oh boy. the app you have has been retired. I have the install file somewhere, but
      I would not recommend that. I have been working on a new improved version
      which will be ready very soon. Can you wait a few days to a week?

  40. Was awesome sitting on the top of the hill in uxbridge watching the rain pour from the clouds in the distance. Son in law saw a lightning bolt. No rain there or here

  42. Vicki my guess is it would be transitioning to a hybrid storm since the waters once it get up here are cool and tropical systems don’t like cool weather. I also think at the moment this will take a track similar to a Noreaster where instead of snow will get some rain and some wind.

    1. Thanks JJ. I have been following a discussion on FB re cool water but thought TK said the other day cool water was not the only consideration. I’m just not sure what the other factors are. We had other hurricanes at this time of year that were very strong. Except Jose is not a powerhouse and maybe it would just take intersection with cooler water to keep him weak

      What is a hybrid storm? I’m not familiar with that term

  44. 66mph wind gust at Boston Logan earlier this evening associated with a severe thunderstorm moving offshore. NWS Boston tweeted a nice radar loop showing a classic downburst signature.

  46. Vicki, I believe Sandy was a hybrid storm when it made landfall. The wind field around the center will expand, that’s why our south coast felt such strong winds even though she made landfall hundreds of miles away.

      1. I’d ask how your golf game is, except I recall Macs going from a near scratch handicap to….oops…after our first born. Although I seem to recall your last time out was awesome

        1. Hahahaha, my golf game pretty much crapped the bed after college and I had to get a real job. Once u stop playing regularly and practicing its hard to maintain the low numbers. I was playing around par at one point

          1. Mac is Smiling. For what it is worth, he got his game back once kids were older. Sorry you both could not share a game. He would have loved it.
            šŸ™

      1. And from reading the article, it sounds like the island of Antigua has really been taxed by having to take in 1800 inhabitants and 500 school age children. They have no where to put them.

        1. I have little to donate but something kept telling me to decide where …. it is becoming very clear. I think it was you who said humanitarian crisis. It is just beyond comprehension.

  48. The golf season has not been bad for me Vicki. I have my good rounds and not so good rounds. I am hoping the weather stays nice and be able to golf to the end of November.

    1. Awesome JJ. If I learned nothing else, it was that you have good and not so good but learning from the not so good makes them worthwhile

    1. Twice with Jose and then a few days later with what would be either Lee or Maria, pending the outcome of TD14.

      CMC is a hit too. And the GFS Ensembles are much further west. I can’t say I’m surprised, because I’m not. Blocking was being under-forecast, as I suspected.

      1. Today’s 00z (96 hr EURO) is west compared to yesterday’s 00z (120 hr EURO).

        24 hrs ago, it was around the longitude of eastern Connecticut. The current run is around the longitude of NYC.

          1. 24 hrs later ….

            Current Euro a bit slower and continues further west.

            Current Euro has a longitude of western Maine. 24 hrs ago was lined up with eastern Maine.

                1. Indeed ! More changes to come perhaps. Could end up trending further southwest of us.

                  Euro also has something emerging just north of Puerto Rico.

  54. The irony of this is all meteorological summer long, we were dominated by a northeast trof, the Atlantic ridge was centered way to our east and I believe things were fairly progressive.

  55. While the surface winds in this scenario aren’t super strong, I think they might be persistent over a period of time. That with fairly high tides during the new moon cycle from 9/20 to 9/23 are a watchable concern.

    2nd system now near Bahamas at hr 216.

    1. I’m looking forward to the 12z spaghetti plot update at 9am.

      Don’t think the models fully grasp the blocking yet and that Jose’s track will continue a west and even southwest trend.

  59. Good morning:

    FOR: weatherbee2
    And anyone else with an Android Smart Phone

    Here is a link to the new and improved Woods Hill Weather app

    https://mega.nz/#!AboX2AaT!Kdmerl1WiquOlQEN3Epj8OmEoZtLuza0Zrxxz8wnFXg

    As far as I know, this link simply downloads the install file to your device.
    Just check for an icon when you download in case
    it installs, but I did not see that happening when I downloaded it.
    If not, you may need “file manager” OR “APK Installer” to install.
    Both are available
    on the Google play store.

    Now for all of you Iphone users, please do not worry. I have the APP available for
    Iphone. We are testing it out with a few devices. Apple does not make things easy for developers. It’s worse that 10 root canals sans novacaine.

    Until such time I put it up on the Apple App store, the ONLY way anyone can test
    the app is to supply me with the device UDID number which is a 40 character code.
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    Apple is a ROYAL PAIN IN THE ASS!!!!! I can assure you of that.

    Anyhow, it is DONE. I have a fully functioning APP for IOS devices.

    Have a great day.

    1. Thanks JpDave, for all the time you have put into this.

      I have an IPhone, look forward to the app and will patiently wait til you give the word that it is ready.

  64. One thing I notice now with the plots of Jose. When there’s a shift, most models shift at the same time and same direction. We no longer have such a wide variety of outcomes.

    1. Very observant. Pretty scary. Tells me it is almost time be on full alert,
      although a direct hit would most likely be a Cat 1 or less. Still something
      to watch very carefully. I do not like some of the pressures being depicted.

      1. Yea just looking at the intensity plots, it would likely be a strong TS or hybrid system. But could still do some damage.

  67. We get a new Jose update from NHC at 11AM, do we not?

    Let’s see what their new track is then and how much, if any, of SNE is within
    the cone of uncertainty.

  68. Models seemed to have ticked back east a little at 12z as compared to 6 z

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_06z.png
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png
    Positioning is pretty similar tuesday morning ~ 300 miles off the virginia coast, but after that it seems to turn a little faster than at 6z. it’s subtle, but its there. Wonder if the 12Z GFS and euro hold west, or tick east some.

    And yes, NHC comes out with a new update and cone at 11 am

    1. And so they do. Does it mean anything? Maybe yes and maybe no.
      BUT, it is getting closer to the possible event, so who knows.

    1. That might just seal the OTS deal, unless it is some sort of temporary jog and
      it tracks more NW in a little while. šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

  70. NHC has not updated the cone for 11AM, but here is the position of Jose
    at 120 hours. “just” S of the benchmark with it tracking SE of it.

    120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

    And yes, appears to have shifted East just a bit

  75. Its wobbling like a drunken sailor on its way up here….west, east, west, east. Looks like its heading off shore ultimately.

  80. Reading the recon plane graph only, looks like a max flight wind of 67 or 68 knots and a min pressure of 983 – 984 mb.

  81. Reconnaissance data suggests that Jose is probably a minimal hurricane, with 75mph winds. Regardless, looks like the NHC estimates have been pretty good.

  82. I’m seeing some indications that we’re about to get an eastward shift on the forecast track and the rest of the model guidance. I think Jose’s substantially more northeastward position as it starts its turn northward is going to prove important. 12z HWRF has made a big jump east at least through 84 hours.

  83. My best amateur guess is that Jose will be a run-of-the-mill Outer Cape and the Islands gale, with minimal impact west and north of the south coast.

  85. Its funny to look at the recon plane graph for Jose after having looked at tons of them for Irma.

    The axis’ number labels are so different from Irma. At one point, Irma’s wind access labeled close to 200 knots and right now, Jose’s stops at 70 knots. Irma’s pressure axis was labeled down to 910 mb and right now, Jose’s stops at 980 mb.

  87. Some heavy showers and maybe a thundershower look to be 5 to 10 miles north of Boston.

    Others popping across northern Mass. They are not moving too quickly.

      1. Same here. We’ve seen a good amount of sun the last few hours.

        Too humid though. Gotten into the school. Yuck !!!!!!!

  88. Yesterday’s 12z Euro at hr 120 projected Jose’s center at Boston’s longitude.

    Matching that up to today’s projected center fix on the 12z at hr 96, it’s just west of Worcester.

  89. Now, coming up, the moment of truth on today’s 12z euro run.

    At hr 144, will it continue NE harmlessly or will we see the blocking that was on the 00z model runs this morning ?

    1. Blocking in my opinion. I was looking at 500mb and 300 mb.

      We shall see in a moment.

      Please Check your phone. šŸ˜€

  94. Needless to say, I don’t think the models have this down. In fact, I’m suspicious as early as Jose’s first pass by New England.

    1. It’s interesting, there are 9 or 10 spaghetti plots and yet, after Jose makes the turn at around 40N, only 2 are straight out to sea. 2 others start to curve SE. The other 5 or 6. Guessing it’s a stall which gives more credence to the euro.

  102. A PRE?

    From NWS (Btw there was some evidence of this on the 12Z Euro, although not fully developed)

    Monday…

    Increasing low level moisture with dry air at mid levels. Expect
    mixed clouds and sun. There is some concern that a Predecessor
    Rain Event may develop. Southern New England will be under the
    right entrance region of an upper jet, a favored location for a
    PRE to occur. While not a certainty this far out, it will need
    to be monitored. Meanwhile, forecasting slight chance pops.

  103. Getting awfully dark in the City.

    I see cells popping within the last few minutes within city limits.
    Sea Breeze enhanced? Induced?

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