Wednesday Forecast

68 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
A broad low pressure circulation will still have an impact on the region today as southern New England sits on its western flank as a very small high pressure bubble slides south of the region. This combination results in a gusty west wind, some clouds, but dry conditions. Approaching low pressure from the Ohio Valley will track just south of southern New England Thursday and Thursday night, and will become part of the larger circulation offshore by Friday, bringing some rain and snow Thursday and lingering rain/snow showers on Friday, with snow being most likely in higher elevations of southwestern NH into north central MA, though some areas close to Boston may see flakes Thursday night and first thing Friday as well. The only threat of minor accumulation exists in the aforementioned higher elevations. High pressure approaches slowly over the weekend with dry weather but a cool north to northwest air flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow higher elevations southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 40-47 early then temperatures falling to 35-43. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, mix, and snow, gradually tapering off but a small snow accumulation is most likely in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain/mix showers. Highs 42-48. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
At the moment it looks like high pressure will dominate April 23-25 with fair weather and a warming trend with the exception of cooler sea breezes at coastal locations. Low pressure from the southwest may bring wet weather to the region during the April 26-27 period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Fair weather returns for the end of April with more seasonable temperatures. Another low pressure system may bring some unsettled weather during the first couple days of May.

68 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Heading into a quiet period of weather. The Thursday system is minor. I expect most locations under 0.5″ QPF, mainly rain SNE with some elevation dependent snow north and west, and not much snow at that. Beyond that, dry. Temperature trend into the weekend and beyond will be towards warmer, though not seeing any real heat. Will keep an eye on the middle of next week, which TK has mentioned as a possible rain chance. As a ridge moves overhead here, looks like a low tries to develop to the south. It’s the kind of pattern in late spring/summer that we’d look for tropical or subtropical development off the Southeast coast. Probably too early for that, but we may see a low develop and track up the coast around then.

  5. Thank you TK. a Bit breezy this morning with a definite chill in the air, but dry. 😀

    Heading into the ho-hum period for weather (for me anyway). Other than an occasional severe weather threat or possible Tropical type storm, not too much gets me excited about the weather from about now until next Winter season. (Perhaps there is a Winter type surprise down the road this month or next??? who knows. Likely not, but time will tell)

  6. 43, destructive sunshine, and a cold damp breeze.
    Just exactly what I’m looking for on April 18th.
    Just awesome

      1. Oh I have no doubt. Just an absolute disaster. Just like this whole month.
        If 60 degrees and sun pans out by Sunday or early next week it’ll feel like mid summer over this misery.

  7. We had some beautiful lenticular clouds here in Plymouth, NH this morning. The mountains up here work wonders on those.

    1. One time I saw some beauties over the top of Mount Tecumseh at Waterville Valley. Cool looking clouds to be sure.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Bright sunshine. That’s good. But, what is shocking to me is how relatively cold it is, even with the sun angle and sunshine. As a a weather buff friend of mine reminded me yesterday, we’re only two months away from the longest day of the year (and, in his inimical style he said “it’s all downhill from there” – he’s a summer guy). Sure, it’ll get warm and even hot eventually, but my goodness winter has overstayed its welcome. Yes, even for me, winter guy, I’m ready to throw out the winter guest who keeps knocking on my door to let me know he’s still around.

    Well, I am very wrong about the Celtics. I must say Brad Stevens deserves a medal for the work he’s done with this ragtag team. They crushed a pretty good Bucks team and look to be on their way to winning the first round.

    And, I’m very impressed by the Red Sox. That was an awesome home run show. Love the quizzical look on Scioscia’s face after the Sox teed off against every Angel pitcher. The Sox have been Mike’s nemesis for many years. Mookie Betts is as good an all-round player as there is in the majors. Better all-round player than Stanton or Judge, in my opinion. Boy do the Yankees look woeful. They’ll turn it around, but somewhere Joe Girardi is enjoying all this (schadenfreude). He should not have been let go. Boone is not managerial material, quite frankly.

    1. And on the flip side of Boone, what a difference with Cora and company. This is basically the same team as last year. They won 93 games and the division. But….this team looks sooooo much different. More aggressive at the plate, better all around baseball, and an actual likable, and fun team to watch.

        1. Wow, crazy. Same as Belichick. Maybe time for a change for them. That team is crazy talented but have been irrelevant for 10+ years.

  10. Mike Soscia the longest tenured manager in baseball.
    It is still early in the season for the Yankees. I remember them 11-19 in 2005 and came back and won the AL East. Stanton 20 k’s in 8 home games off to a dreadful start. I want to see when the weather gets warmer if that turns around. Tanka he is either on or dreadful. Sonny Gray needs to step up. They are going to need to get a starter at the trade deadline. I liked Joe Girardi as a manager and will see if the mistake of firing Girardi blows up in their face. To me anything less than a World Series is a failure.

    1. I’m not concerned yet. They should turn things around when the weather gets warmer and they get over some of their injuries. If they are still .500 in June, then we’ve got problems.

  11. I don’t think it is time hit the panic button for the Yankees. I agree with you Mark if there a 500 team in June then you have some problems. Last year with no expectations Yankees fan would have been happy with 8-8 at this point as there transitioning and getting younger. Now on to this season you got some Yankees fans ready to jump off the roof.

    1. The hitting will come around. I am more worried about the inconsistent pitching. I agree with you, I think they need to add another quality starter.

  12. Snowed again here last night and had a sugar coating on the ground this morning. Still sitting at only 40 degrees under cloudy skies and haven’t even seen the sun yet.

    I’ve decided I might as well take advantage of this late winter pattern and I’m going to head up to Mt Snow tomorrow for a final day of skiing. Kids are on spring break this week and they still have tons of snow up there with 67 of 86 trails expected for tomorrow. They probably would still be close to 100% open if they hadn’t shut down one of the lifts down for the season. Forecast is for snow all day with 3-5″ accumulation and temps in the low 30’s so should be some fresh powder and mid-winter conditions. Pretty rare to get these types of conditions and trail coverage on April 19, especially in southern VT! In fact, conditions, now are better than they were in much of mid-late January and February.

  13. With last night’s snow, through April 18, I have now had more April days with snow (either falling from the sky or on the ground) than I have had without. 6 snow events so far this month.

  14. The Yankees have the assets to get that starting pitcher at the trade deadline. I believe were going to see Glayber Torres be called up in the not too distant future. If he could put up the numbers he is putting in the minors that may bring a jolt to this team.

  16. Thank You Vicki.
    I enjoy talking baseball whether its the Yankees Red Sox or other things going on in baseball as well some other sports.

  17. Happy Birthday, JJ.

    While I am not a Yankees fan, I’m not worried about their ability to snap out of their collective funk. I do think Boone (total novice to managing or being part of a coaching staff) was not a great choice to replace Girardi (a proven commodity).

  18. As I recall, the Yankees started the 1998 campaign 1 and 4. They did start winning lots of games after that, but the Yankees have suffered poor starts before. In the late 70s, April was not so kind to the Yankees either. They saved their best for later in the season. It’s remarkable how certain teams in baseball tend to be better finishers than starters. I’d include the Oakland A’s and St. Louis Cardinals in that category. I would NOT include the Red Sox in that category. Sure, they’ve had some good finishes in the past 15 years, but they’ve also had some bad ones. And prior to 2003 it was generally the Sox modus operandi to be good in April and May, and be bad to very bad in August and September.

  19. Thanks Joshua for the birthday wish.
    Yes you are correct the Yankees did start 1-4 in 1998 and they went on to win 114 regular season games and a World Series. As I mentioned earlier they were 11-19 in 2005 came back won AL East. I just feel they are some people who are panicking way to early.

  20. When the Red Sox start very slow, they usually stay that way for the entire year. The exception was in 1988 when Joe Morgan “Morgan Magic” took over the team mid-season and won the AL East. They were swept in fine fashion by Oakland in the playoffs, of course. 😉

  21. Car thermometer reading 54. VERY comfortable out there. Beautiful day, imho.
    I am not complaining one bit. 😀

    Still wondering IF there is a surprise tomorrow?????

  24. Yes, happy birthday JJ and Tom! And thanks to Vicki for keeping track of all these! JJ, yours should be easy for me to remember as it is only a day away from mine.

    1. Unless there is a surprise, that’ll probably be just about how it plays out.
      Still hoping for a surprise and then enough is enough. 😀

  26. So I guess that not-so-sneaky snow event Tuesday night I mentioned a few days ago did happen in those scattered areas. 😉 Got lucky on that one. 😉

    Lots of stratocu moving in as the core of cold air comes across the sky above us in the form of a small airmass trough that is also creating a little low level convergence. But there is a bit of a cap not far above the LCL and cold layer so the clouds don’t develop much vertically, but instead spread horizontally and cover more of the sky. This is a very common occurrence in the spring around here.

    I am still also chuckling at how many people expect to go from winter to warmth every year and when it does happen it’s the exception. That said, it is a chilly April at -4.2F at Boston just over half way through the month, but I assure you we will not see them finish that far below normal. Ironically last April was about +4F there. What a great example of what “average temperature” means. Still, very few people actually understand it, except you well-educated WHW readers. 😉

    Examining a little medium range guidance this afternoon. I believe tomorrow is the day that the NWS updates their monthly & seasonal outlooks.

    1. Just to add, I wonder how many people understand the variability that
      comes with any average?? That’s why there is such a thing as standard
      deviation and variance.

      I would love to get my hands on some full data and run those figures.

      For example, what is the average high temp for today’s date at Logan?
      Somewhere around 55 Degrees, give or take. Fine, but what is the standard
      deviation? I am not sure what it is, but I’ll be something like 5 degrees or so?
      That would mean that about 68 pecent of the time them high temp would be
      between 50 and 60 degrees. About 95 percent of the time, between
      45 degrees and 65 degrees and 99.7% of the time it would be between
      40 and 70 degrees All assuming the average temperature is a Normal
      distribution as some are skewed.

      You get the idea. Not sure what the standard deviation actually is. I’d say somewhere between 5 and 8 degrees.

      1. I am having flashbacks to statistics class with Dr. Stanley Spiegel. 😉

        But I would generally agree with your assessment on the standard deviation. 🙂

        1. Indeed. In the late 90s I coached both soccer and baseball in the spring, and unpredictable was the operative term as far as weather is concerned. Well, also the kids, sometimes. Also coached soccer in the fall of 1995-2000. The only `bad’ autumn weather-wise was 1996. It rained a ton that October, especially on weekends.

          Thanks for the points on standard deviation. Statistics should be a mandatory component of math in high school. I don’t believe this is the case everywhere.

          Thanks for welcoming me back after a short break from posting on WHW. I wasn’t planning on staying away for long.

        2. Except for the winter coats, knit hats, gloves, no nothing out of the ordinary for mid-April. 😉

          Not to mention the Midwest blizzards.

    1. I do every year as a general rule and this year is no exception. If we get to May 1 and I’m high confidence on zero threats in the first 10 days of the month I’ll call it early. I will not call things early on model runs. I’ve already seen TV weather forecasts on at least 5 occasions (yes I’m counting) say we were done with 40s in the last 2 weeks when they showed their 7 and/or 10 day forecasts.

  29. Joshua,

    To comment on your post yesterday, Western Europe has turned rather beautiful this week, especially here in London where it was 78 today and will be 81 tomorrow. What a great 3 days we had here. We are off to drive to Northern England tomorrow.

  31. Not much with the NAMs regarding tomorrow.
    Looks to be very very close as to rain vs snow.
    COLD enough above, just a tad too mild at the surface. Given that,
    IF the intensity is a but more than forecast, then it would certainly be
    possible to either mix with or change to snow.
    Will continue to monitor.

    925mb and 850 mb temps below freezing from 12Z tomorrow onward.
    Surface temps progged to be mid to upper 30s.
    If the intensity is more than expected, this goes to snow. If it remains light, then
    just a tad too mild. 😀

  33. North, great to hear about your UK trip and fantastic weather.

    I have such fond memories of the UK. While I was over there in the 1980s I joined the Rambler’s Association, and went on numerous walking tours of the countryside. I was the blissfully ignorant American who never bought Wellies (basically, boots for the rain and mud), and always wound up with the muddiest hiking boots.

    1. :). My grandparents lived in London for years and are buried here. My mother whole side of the family is in Northern England. Last time I was here was 29 years ago. My wife and daughter had never been before and have not met most of my family here. I am glad to finally have them meet everyone and no rain!

      2. I am loving following you and your family on FB. Ivy has a few REALLY great recipes for me

        I probably mentioned here. Mac had knee surgery in London as a teen. Doctor operated in wrong area first so Mac had extra time in hospital. He sure never minded. They put him in the women’s ward to recover before second surgery. The women and nurses took him home most every night to meet their daughters. 🙂

  37. Thanks Philip, TK, Mark, JPDave, Longshot, Vicki, Joshua for the birthday wishes.
    The Red Sox what could you say the team is playing very good baseball and making a statement in the early season.

  40. Steadiest, heaviest earlier, so going with some sleet/snow involved earlier rather than later. I think we get less precip later and it’s more spotty and light by then so probably rain.

    New post!

Comments are closed.