Saturday Forecast

40 Comments

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)
Not a lot of change to the forecast. Today’s the chilly, overcast, and eventually wet day (for most) although the concentration of rain is going to be to the south (CT, RI, southeastern MA) while areas to the north (northern MA and southern NH) have a lighter rain that is of shorter duration. High pressure pushes the wet weather out of here for a dry Mother’s Day Sunday, though clouds will linger especially south. High pressure will continue to sink to the south allowing for fair weather and a warm-up early next week, but by the middle of next week we will find another frontal boundary in the area, separating that warmer air from a new batch of cold air from Canada, and providing the avenue for moisture from the southwest. So a stretch of unsettled weather will get underway at that time.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most widespread midday on southern areas. Highs 48-56. Wind N under 10 MPH becoming E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain mainly southeastern MA early. Lows 41-47. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny with more sun likely southern NH and northern MA and less sun to the south. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-68 inland. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 44-52. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s South Coast, middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)
A frontal boundary is expected to be in the region for a good portion of this period with episodes of unsettled weather, but that doesn’t mean 5 days of rainy weather. It just means that we have some fine tuning to do to time those threats, and figure out temperatures, as we get close.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)
Will enter the late portion of May still with some kind of battle between the cool air trying to hang on in Canada and the warmth of the coming summer building to the south. Not quite sure where we end up here in southeastern New England quite yet. Another look at this tomorrow, but still leaning toward at least one potential significant rain event during this time.

40 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  6. Looking at some ENSO (El Nino and la Nino) analog years for weak La Niña, there is …

    1954-55
    1964-65
    1971-72
    1974-75
    1983-84
    1984-85
    2000-01
    2005-06
    2008-09
    and our current 2016-18

    Understanding that so many other teleconnections play important roles, looking back the summers looked average temps to slightly below with some cool Augusts.

    One big exception was August 1955 that blazed with many high 90+ days throughout and a monthly high of 100F.

    2. Interesting, thanks Tom. I agree there are some good analogs in there. CPC actually just issued their final La Nina advisory a couple days ago, so this La Nina event is actually now over. Spring is well known as a low confidence period in ENSO forecasting, but right now consensus seems to be that we may head towards a weak or at most moderate El Nino by later in summer or fall. So when looking at those years, I would favor those which had us transitioning from weak La Nina to possibly a weak or moderate El Nino later in the year. 2006 and 2009 seem to fit the current evolution best. Maybe 1976 also. Many more variables of course, but ENSO is always a good place to start.

  8. For those interested its a good read.
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07052018/atlantic-ocean-circulation-slowing-climate-change-heat-temperature-rainfall-fish-why-you-should-care

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/weaker-gulf-stream-means-trouble-coastal-new-england…. The sierra club also posted a similar article.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/11/the-oceans-circulation-hasnt-been-this-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8215d6c91bf6

    This will also affect our area, probably by more extreme weather events, as storms slow down more often and feed on the warming gulf of Maine.

  9. So. what’s up with the GFS? Did it blow its brains out?
    Stuck at hour 135 and is not Budging.

  11. Why can’t it be January or February. Good track if you love snow with the 6z GFS runs showed.

  12. I am still around, Vicki. School and life pick up greatly in the spring. Seniors graduate three weeks from today. The rest of us trudge onto June 26. My underclassmen think we’re done. Hah! I still have two chapters to cover before finals!
    I peek in here daily, but don’t really have the time to post a lot now. Will be following that May 26 storm that probably won’t be there tomorrow!!! Poof!

    Happy Mother’s Day to all moms, step-moms, nanas and all who share and give their maternal love. Enjoy your special day!

    Thanks for thinking of me, Vicki! Hope you’re well , too. Enjoy a great day tomorrow!

    1. Sure sounds hectic. I don’t think many appreciate how much teachers have earned the time off during summer months.

      We are well, thank you. I hope you enjoy a special mother’s day. I look forward to when you have the time to post more often….but I’m sure not more than you

    2. Billerica goes to the end of the last week of june and extended tuesdays. My brother is extremely happy, and knows many people who will not be at school anyways the last week of school do too family vaca

  14. Howdy all!

    Update will be a little later this morning (10AM hour most likely). Keeping the clouds more locked in today and maybe even a few patches of drizzle as a persistent but light ocean flow keeps the low level moisture locked in longer and we never really take all the higher clouds far enough south for enough sun above to burn it all off. This probably means a grey start to Monday as well but will re-evaluate a bit later this morning and update then…

  15. Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms….remember, our four legged family members are kids too 🙂

    1. Thank you Vicki, for that! Our Princess is our baby – I guess I am a mother, too!

  16. Sorry to hear about more clouds today. I was hoping for at least some amounts of sunshine this being Mother’s Day. I have seen worse, but still…

    Anyway…Happy Mother’s Day to all! 🙂

  19. Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers out there. And for those who have lost their moms, let’s remember them with love. I lost my mom a few yrs. ago. And I know some here have lost theirs, too. We remember them with love.

    1. You are so right. My mom is never far from my thoughts. It’s one of those bittersweet type days.

  20. Thanks TK. Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms!!

    It’ll get warmer as you go north today. In fact we’re in for a spectacular day here in Plymouth, NH- sunny and up into the 70s. Keeping an eye on Tuesday for severe weather potential. Right now the main threat looks to stay southwest of New England, but things could shift around. SPC has a marginal risk over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic, which will probably be upgraded as we get closer.

  21. As my Mother-In-Law used to say: Today is a PUNK day. 😀
    what a LOSER of a day. FIGURES!!

  22. Happy Mom’s Day.

    38 years ago on May 18th, the eruption of mount St. Helens blasted an ash cloud up to:

    A. 20,000 feet
    B. 40,000 feet
    C. 60,000 feet
    D. 80,000 feet

    Answer later today.

    2. D

      My sister in law lived in Spokane at the time. We visited several years later and there was still ash on side of roads throughout the state. I have a bottle of ash somewhere. Silly thing to have

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