Thursday Forecast

74 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)
An upper level trough will swing through New England from northwest to southeast later today through early Friday bringing some cloudiness and triggering a few showers, though most of the time will be dry and comfortable. A great weekend is coming up with plenty of sun and a warm up, and by Monday the heat will be on, the degree of which will be determined by the amount of sunshine, which is a wildcard based on debris cloudiness from thunderstorms in the Great Lakes and adjacent southern Canada – a pattern fairly typical of this time of year. An approaching front from the north may trigger storms here by later Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a possible shower early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Chance of late-day thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to middle 90s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)
Humidity and a shower threat may linger into early June 19 before drying out. A disturbance may bring a shower around June 21 or 22 otherwise mainly dry and seasonable weather expected during much of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)
Wet weather threat early in the period when it will be coolest, then seasonable to warmer thereafter and will watch for a disturbance around the middle of the period with a shower threat.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. They are close to an area that is in peak season (on the edge of the Midwest), so yes they are more prone to such events than we in New England.

      1. Thanks, TK. It is an area I am not terribly familiar with but that we always used as a marker on our trips to Charleston when we drove inland route. I never have known how to prounce barre

      1. Yes, me as well.
        I just want to take a lawn chair and sit there staring for hours, sipping on my favorite beverage.

    1. Longshot – Thank you and I am so sorry. I would consider this my best job of confusing everyone. You are actually four days early. I was reacting to the temperatures JPD posted that are expected for my birthday. My wording was just plain bad.

  7. My son will be cruising Hingham harbor tonight as part of his last 8th grade outing & last with these group of kids as he enters into a new school system in September & will hopefully make lots of new friends .

      2. He is going to a private catholic high school a very , very good school with some great teachers & programs . We feel this is going to be a tremendous opportunity for him .

    1. Per TK abover: An upper level trough will swing through New England from northwest to southeast later today through early Friday bringing some cloudiness and triggering a few showers

      1. also above

        TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

        We just had a doozer of a gust. Blew one of our spotlights right out of the socket and crashed on deck.

        We have blue sky with lovely white cotton ball clouds.

      1. SIL in boston today and said sunny there all day with passing cloud. Maybe a cloud is stuck over where you are??

          1. Looking at webcams and they are cloudy. Maybe SIL just has a blue hole over his head.

            Definitely been sunny out here. Is there something that is holding the clouds as they reach the coast? I’ve seen that happen but have no idea why.

        3. Cloudy where I am as well. A peek of sun here and there.
          Was mostly sunny earlier this AM.

    1. Heat index of 100 is stinky to be sure, but it is not earth shattering to say the least. If it weren’t for my wife’s total and complete intolerance of the heat,
      I’d Say bring it on and I’d even say let’s do 100+. Additional AC units
      going in this weekend. To date, only had one in.

  11. It is very cloudy in the city, that is for sure. I was expecting it, but it happened
    a bit earlier than I expected. Oh well. It’s still very nice out.

    1. Odd – SIL just said been sunny where he is all day but then it is a fairly large city….Boston could be most any area.

      You dont have blue sky with white clouds? Are you and blackstone sharing the same sad cloud?

      2. It’s cloudy all over the city Vicki. I came back from lunch via the top of mission hill where I could see the whole city.
        Sill must be remembering this morning. 😀 😀 😀

  14. Although my a question to blackstone was serious. We have had clouds march by here all day even though there is a ton of bright blue sky. Is there something that would cause them to back up when they reached the coastline? I’ve seen the opposite where tons of big fluffy clouds approach the coastline and then dissipate.

  15. re: Monday

    I was just looking at the Euro 850 MB temps for Monday.
    I only have 8 AM and 8 PM available, but for 8 PM, most of SNE is enveloped
    within the 20C-24C contour. That is 68 to 75.2 F.

    A “rough” approximation to the potential high temperature is to take
    the Temperature F at 850MB and add 27.5 F to it.

    So for the low end, 20C that would be 68 + 27.5 = 95.5
    The high end, 24C would be 75.2 + 27.5 = 102.7

    Of course if we don’t get enough sunshine, these numbers would not be achieved, BUT,
    it is clear to me that Monday will be down right HOT, possibly record breaking.

    Upper 90s is quite likely and 100 or higher is certainly on the table.
    Of course if there is crap loads of debris cloudiness, then it might struggle to make 90.

    We shall see. Certainly cause for concern and something to watch.

    1. NWS discussion call for plenty of heat and humidity, but not to the levels
      I mention above…

      Early Next Week…

      591 dam ridge over the OH valley advects an anomalous warm airmass
      into New England with both EC and GFS 850 mb temps of +20C/+21C
      advecting into the area. Ensembles not too far behind at +18C to
      +19C. These temps aloft combined with WSW surface winds will support
      near record highs of 90-95 away from the south coast. exacerbating the
      heat will be very humid conditions with dew pts climbing to around
      70. Even the typically conservative EC has a dew pt of 72F for
      Boston 00z Tue!

  16. The cloud cover on a day when you have a cold pool and a bit of an inversion is always very difficult. There are usually areas that stay cloudier and other locations where the clouds have a tough time getting to. This is determined by several factors, not only the cold air above and the sun’s heating of the ground, but by small zones of convergent and divergent wind as the lower atmosphere mixes. These shift and change during the day and while are somewhat “forecastable” on the general scale, forecasting them down to microscale, such as “over Cambridge”, is pretty much impossible. So this may mean that while one particular town under a convergent zone sees less sun, the next town over may see periodic or even more persistent sun. These features can be quasi-stationary, or migrate, or change from one to the other during the day. Again, the atmosphere is fluid, not solid, and behaves as fluid should. It’s a complex mixing that is almost continuously ongoing.

    FWIW, the NWS forecast for the zone Cambridge is in continues to carry “partly sunny”. I was in Reading for several hours today and we had intervals of sun but dominant stratocumulus much of the time. If you look a little further south, toward the South Coast, the sun has been out most of the day as we have not had the adequate combination of cold air aloft and sun-heated ground to trigger the clouds there. Some will advect there even if they don’t form there later, as the disturbance that is the root of the cold air sinks to the southeast.

    Vicki, to answer your question about clouds near the coast, they can “pile up” near the coastline on a day you have a sea breeze boundary nearby. They dissipate toward the coast or over the water on a day when the air there is too stable to support them while inland it is unstable enough to keep them alive.

    Today’s clouds have developed as well as moved in from the west northwest (follow a satellite loop) in direct response to a cyclonic spin in the upper and middle atmosphere and a west to northwest wind at lower levels.

    1. Excellent explanation, TK. Thank you. We continue to have cloud dotted blue sky in Sutton. Absolutely spectacular day.

      1. I’m at my cloudiest now since I got back from Reading but there is some partial clearing approaching from the northwest now.

  17. If you look at this visible satellite loop you can see some of what I explained above. The general cloud motion is northwest to southeast, but there are retrogressive waves in the atmosphere and you can see them drifting westward. These are controlling more localized cloud placement.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

  19. Provided the “debris cloud factor” is not a deterrent, I think Boston will tie or break their record of 94 on Monday. This record is quite low for most of the record highs this time of year. We’ve just never had many super hot June 18’s there. This record has survived for quite some time, having been set in 1929.

    1. Will be watching that for sure. One way or the other, it will be plenty hot enough. Since winds will not be SW and will be more WSW or so, could
      allow for the temp to be a few degrees higher. IN fact, 12Z GFS has the winds
      Due West over most of SNE.

    2. You say tie or break. So you are thinking around or about 95 give or take?
      It’s still only Thursday, but it would not surprise me if we made upper 90s and a serious run at the century mark if not reaching it. Time will tell.
      As I said, either way, plenty hot enough. ;D

        1. Well, if all goes as planned, my birthday wish will have my weather station installed Saturday (only been a bit more than a year) and I can record the temps.

    3. I only recall days (hot or cold or snow or storm) that have some meaning – at the moment that is a grand total of two. June does seem to be a cool month and exceptionally hot days would stand out more I think. I recall 2014 which I believe did not hit 90 in boston but was quite hot west of Boston and 1994 (I think) which was a horse show date. I was quite disappointed after the show because we either had a minimal storm or nothing.

      1. There were some nasty t-storms in eastern MA on 6-18-1988. One formed right over Lexington / Burlington and moved right into Woburn around 6PM. I was watching from a nearby hill with my local chase partner. Even observed a very brief landspout on the front edge of the storm (it was in the Lexington area) when a swirling mass of dust originated at the ground and traveled upward into the forward part of the cloud base. Once the storm got to our location, it had plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning, a good downpour, but not a ton of wind. It kept moving right along and didn’t last all that long. We have a mini chase of it from the hill down to the east side of Woburn on video, including video we took from the hill before the storm really got going. We did not catch the landspout on video. I had shut the camera off and put it in the car shortly before that. It was one of those original hand held full size VHS video recorders. 😛

        1. As a P.S. to that comment, some members of my family, including my parents, were at a wedding in a church in east Woburn during that storm and I remember them telling me of all the really loud cracks of thunder heard from inside the church during the wedding ceremony. Certainly memorable.

        2. No kids born or special dinners with Mac or horse shows on that date so do not recall. Although I’m sure I enjoyed it immensely. Was 88 that incredibly hot summer?

          2. There were episodes of heat in June & July fairly frequently but August 1-15 was the peak of the heat. Boston was 90+ August 3-6 and August 10-15, and in the upper 80s a couple other days. Here in Woburn I was 90+ August 2-7 and August 9-15.

  20. I was at a friends artisan store in Sutton center tonight. While there, I had the pleasure of listening to the conversation between two Suttonians….one 13th generation which touches me. They talked about tractors and tractor parts. I had no idea what anything meant but it was quintessential small town New England. It sounds silly, but it highlighted what I love about this town.

    Also, there was quick discussion about rain or no rain in am. I looked on here to see what you had said TK. The gentleman needed no explanation about what “possible”shower in the morning meant. I thought WHW would be a good resource for people doing outside farm work.

  21. My concern is increasing for Monday. My usually very conservative Euro service calls for 101 on Monday!

    1. Joe Jackson did an awesome cover of this song. Rare case where I like a cover better than the original.

Comments are closed.