Monday Forecast

229 Comments

6:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)
A one-day stand for heat/humidity and a chance of thunderstorms today as a shot of summer comes in just ahead of a cold front that will then sink southward across southern New England tonight. As for timing of storms, any time after 2PM from north to south, but they may come in several waves into the nighttime hours. Don’t look for widespread severe weather. Despite the heat and humidity, some parameters are poor to marginal for severe weather so though storms in some areas may be strong to locally severe, this should be isolated and short-lived. Once this all pushes out of the region early Tuesday, a drying trend takes over. But the front will never get that far south of the region and a disturbance riding along it, though currently expected to stay far enough south to keep most of its rain out of the region, will likely spread cloudiness back into the area Wednesday, and brief rain may reach the South Coast area, before it clears out Thursday and the end of the week sees fair and warm weather. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 70-77 Cape Cod, 78-87 remainder of South Coast, 88-96 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Winds can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind variable 5-15 MPH. Wind can be strong and gusty near any storms.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lowering humidity. Highs 78-85. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain South Coast at night. Highs 75-83. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Clearing. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)
High pressure brings fair weather June 23. Trough from the west brings a chance of wet weather June 24. Fair weather returns June 25-26 before the next risk of showers around June 27. Temperatures somewhat variable but averaging near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
Much of this period is expected to see dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

229 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Quite a bit of debris in the sky to start the day. This has been a concern all along with forecasting the temps today.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Birthday, Vicki!!!!

    Enjoy your special day!
    You’re a special person, Vicki!!!!

  9. Dew point 59 here and at Logan. Nearest 70 degree DP is southern Long Island
    and New Jersey.

    1. Thank you. I’m having a blast with the new weather station. I think the sprinklers mess with the humidity. It says 70 degrees with 76% humdity. They were just on

      1. Good observation and I’d say you were spot on with that
        assessment. Although, even here I have a reading of
        65% humidity, mostly due to smallish spread between
        dp and temp. AS temp goes up, humidity will go down, even
        if dp goes up.

  14. Thanks TK !

    Happy Birthday Vicki !

    Low temp last night was around 80F in Buffalo, Detroit, Chicago, St Louis.

    I don’t think it will take full sun today to get into the mid-upper 90s by 4 to 5pm from Mass Pike to Boston, points north.

    1. True, but it will take some sun. If it says mostly cloudy, then the models
      that were projecting upper 80s would be correct. Given that, I don’t think
      we will be that lucky. Sure to crack 90 at the very least. We shall see.

      So far, only 71 here. 😀 😀 😀

    2. So far it doesn’t appear there will be ANY sun today. Lowell may regret closing school but I thought I heard that it won’t be counted anyway.

  15. Looks like we are into it based on this WPC surface map:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    As for today’s STINKER….
    I abhor This kind of weather. Anyone who thinks otherwise is mistaken.
    I can tolerate it, but my wife cannot.

    House is starting off cool enough, however, even with DP only 59, I can feel
    the humidity building. Noticeable difference from yesterday.

  18. HRRR looks pretty reasonable for convection today. Not a widespread severe weather event. Just hit or miss showers/storms with a couple storms possibly becoming strong to severe, especially north and west.

      1. I think it has the overall idea right. That run might be overdoing the coverage a little bit, but I think it highlights how the best chance is across the interior, and that multiple rounds of showers/storms are possible from late afternoon through the early overnight.

  19. Thanks TK for the forecast.

    Captain and Tom….all teachers and students…and those working out of doors, I hope you stay comfortable and hydrated.

    1. I never heard that song nor have a seen the video.
      Amazing stuff and those images are absolutely breath taking.
      It appears that my wife shares your views on such things. Afraid I don’t
      quite share that view. I am far more pessimistic on life in general.

  21. Logan dp up to 61. Still holding at 59 here and at Blue Hill which is just down
    the street from me (well about 8 mi). 😀

  23. Just was outside watering.

    Sky is about 60% Mid-high level clouds easily penetrated by sunshine and the rest
    is blue. We’re off and running. Pretty stiff SW breeze as well.

    Temperature up to 75 with DP 61 here.

  25. NWS discussion explains why higher temps North of Pike or in their scenario, NW
    of the I95 corridor.

    Meanwhile…southeast of the I-95 corridor there will be enough of a
    marine influence to hold highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with
    upper 70s to lower 80s on south coast beaches. In fact…gusty
    southwest winds will result in these high temperatures occurring by
    early afternoon and cooling marine air will be advancing northward
    later in the day.

    1. This temp/dp map with wind shows our wind direction. I have added a blue arrow to approximately indicate from whence our winds originate. Note over
      ample cooler water, most especially this early in the season.

      https://imgur.com/a/smCnHSJ

      1. Cool – and I’m getting a SSW reading. Thanks – that just killed two birds with one stone.

  26. Filtered blue beginning to show here between the cloud layer.

    74 with 71% humidity and wunder says around 64 DP. I really need to figure how to find DP on the weather station.

    1. Not sure if you have the same model as I do, but on mine there are a serious of buttons underneath the ticker display. The one on the far left is “SELECT”
      If you keep pressing that, various Parameters will display:

      wind chill
      feels like
      rainfall
      heat index
      dew point

      just press until it says dew point

      cheers

      1. Ahhhh – I was making something that is quite simple into something difficult

        I found DP but was trying to tell the unit to show DP rather than humidity. All I had to do was leave the DP parameter open.

        Duhhhh

        Thank you, JPD!!!

  27. Norwood up to 80, with wind direction 215 degrees.
    No upper 90s with that wind direction. 😀

  29. Thank you TK!

    A very Happy Birthday to my friend Vicki! I hope your day is full of everything you want today.

  30. Well, all is right with my world now that I have the DP indicator. THANK YOU ONCE AGAIN JPD for your patience.

    Temp 78 and DP 67. Wind gusting SW at 6ish.

  31. I wish you a Happy Birthday Vicki!

    I imagine that Paul McCartney, born this day in 1942, is honored to share the day with you!

    1. Ha!!! Thank you so much. I thought that I was the cat’s meow back when I was a teen. I was sure it somehow connected me to Paul! I just learned from TK that Blake Shelton shares the same birthday. I am also a big fan.

  32. Mostly cloudy again here. If this keeps up, great! No 90s at all. 😀 😀 😀
    And I am fine with that. Now watch the sun come out in full force!!

  33. from 9 t0 10 am, in addition to the temps rising, dew points rose anywhere between 2 and 5F the past hour.

  34. Vicki, re: Weather Station

    2 more things you need to do, if not done so already:

    1. Download and install the AcuRite mobile App. You can then see the weather from you station anywhere in the world you have internet. It is truly Awesome! trust me.
    2. Make you connection to Weather Underground. You just open and account and follow
    their easy instructions.

    to do both, you have to make sure you are connected to the internet. You station
    should have come with some sort of device with instructions to hook into your router.
    It’s easy and it works. Need this for both mobile app and weather underground.

    best of luck.

    Oh and by the way, I love my AcuRite weather station and I would HIGHLY recommend it to anyone. 😀

    1. Thank you, OS. I cannot find the disk that came with the station. It was there on Saturday and my guess is I put it someplace to keep it safe 🙂 🙂 🙁

      When I get a break from work, I am going to call Acu rite and find how to download. I was unable to do so yesterday and not sure if my firewall is causing the problem. I will also ask them how to set up wunder

      To connect to PC, does there have to be a physical connection or is it wireless? I’m hoping wireless because I like to move the display to whatever room I am in.

      Thank you for recommending AcuRite. The system is AWESOME.

      1. The connection to the display is wireless, so you can place that
        anywhere within range.

        The internet device, however, has to be plugged into your
        router.

        1. I have the internet plugged into router.

          I tried to download the mobile app but it tells me the email address is not valid. No idea what that means. I got that a couple of times yesterday too. I’ll have to call as time permits

          1. email address? Nah, probably said
            IP address. You need to have the ip address
            of the internet device. That should do the trick.

            1. No email for log in. I can log in on my computer but using same user name and password on mobile has given me the same error re invalid email address twice. I’ve had the email address since 1992 so know it is valid 🙂

              1. You got me. Sorry wish I could help. I have found the AcuRite customer support to be excellent. You’ll be in good hands.

                1. You have helped so much already. I do wish work stopped getting in my way. I need more than a few minutes here and there 🙂

  38. Tk not withstanding as he clearly indicated that there could be debris cloudiness
    that could impact high temperatures.

    The TV Mets on the other hand were consistently pitching the Upper 90s with even
    a run at 100 degrees in some locations. It’s too bad we get this unbelievable hype.

    At this hour Logan is still only 82. If it is to make 90 it better make some jumps and soon.

    1. As I wrote this, Logan jumped to 84. Still 6 Degrees to go. There is time, but
      will it happen?

      One thing for sure, NO upper 90s. I don’t think Logan ties or breaks the
      record today. Could it still? Sure, but I doubt it. We shall see.

  39. Dew point of 70 is now showing up at a number of stations all over
    SNE, including Norwood and Fitchburg,

  41. Did someone post this….although it pretty much goes without saying

    …AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING…

    The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection has issued
    an Air Quality Action Day for Ground Level Ozone, in effect until
    11 PM EDT this evening.

    An Air Quality Action day means that Ground Level Ozone
    concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy
    standards. For additional information, please visit the
    Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection website at:

    https://bit.ly/2reZdyU

  42. So far ac is off and with ceiling fans it is lovely in here. I kept windows closed. And AC is on upstairs which allows some of the cooler air to leak onto first floor. Even with cloud cover, it is hot out though.

  43. 83 here in Wrentham, and it’s been a slow climb. We hit 89 yesterday; I’m not totally convinced we even get there today. Certainly still could, but we’ll need tbe clouds to break. Can feel the higher humidity though.

  44. I’m not impressed with today’s heat yet in the city. Sure it’s sticky out but coming from a guy who is directly working outside in it wearing jeans , dark polo & boots no big deal YET.

  48. Happy Birthday Vicki.
    Waiting to see if any storms develop this afternoon and this evening.

  49. I know eastern sections are under thicker mid level clouds, but looks like there could be some clearing ahead of the storms.

    Its warmer in central NH and western Mass/CT.

    Dont completely discount a sudden jump into the 90s during the mid afternoon.

  50. The mid level lapse rates are poor and no EML today so big ingredients missing that were present last month.

  51. I love the 70 plus degree dew points. Wish it were like this everyday until September.

    Too much cloud debris to get much hotter today I think.
    Dave’s right. All the TV flops hyping heat last night. TK said days ago he was skeptical about high heat with the cloud potential.

  52. Whoa. I got the mobile dashboard set up, OS. I figured what it was. Even though I have an account, I needed to set up one with identical information for the mobile.

    It is awesome. I’m getting there.

        1. Especially when you build some data history. Only have a couple of days so far, but you’ll get an idea.

  56. Two Tornado Warnings in NH. One expires at 3:30 the other at 4:00. These are radar indicated. The SPC did have this area in a 2% tornado chance and the SREF for a few runs was picking up on a tornado potential in this area where those warnings are.

  58. OF COURSE BOSTON NEXRAD DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE!!!
    YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME?E!(@#!@#_(*!)@(*#(!@#*(&!(*@#&!(*@&(#*&!(@*#&(*!&@#(*!&@*#&!@(*#&!(*@&#(*!&@(*#&!(*@#&(*!@&#(*!&@(#*&!@(*#&!(*@&#(!*@&#(!*@&#(*!@&#(*!@&#*(!&@#*(&!@(*#&!(*@&#(*!&@#(*!&@#(*&!(@*#&!(*@&#!(*@#&(*!&@#*(!@*(#&!*(@&#(!*@#&(!*@&#*(!&@(*#&!(*@$^#(*#()$*%)(#$&%*(^#(*$%)(@#*$%*(&#(*$%&)()@(#$(&@#$*)@#($*@#^$*(@#()$&@(#&$)!@(*#$)(@&#*$^@#)($&(@*#^%(($)(#&$(*@#&$(@*#^$@*&#^$(*@&#^$*(@&#^$@*(&#$^@*&#$^@&*#^$*&@^#$&@*#^$&*@^#$&@^#&$^@*&#$^@(*#&$^@#&*$^@*#&$^&@^#$@*&#$^&@*#^$&*@#^$&*@^#$&*@#&$^@&#$

  59. Ryan Hanrahan was tweeting earlier about a lot of low level wind shear and a tornado could not be ruled out in New England today.

  60. HRRR keeps vascillating between over an inch of rain for Boston and hardly a damn thing, 0.10 or so. Alertnate runs back and forth.

    Translation: Boston see NOTHING!! ZIPPO! NOT A DROP OF RAIN.

  63. Behind that tornado warning in NH there are severe thunderstorm warnings with a line forming behind supercell.

  65. I think early evening could be interesting. Post 6pm around these parts. It hit 94 here in Billerica, but the humidity has actually decreased from this morning when it was around 70% and is now down around 50%. It was cloudy for most of the morning and its now rather breezy here out of the south.

    1. It went down because the spread between temp and DP went up.
      The key now is what is your DP?
      I’m sure that did not go down.

      Here, this morning humidity was 65%, but temp was 71 and dp 57
      Now, temp is 92 and DP is 71 while humidity is 53%

      Which of the 2 scenarios would best support thunderstorms?

        1. I have to start calling you JPD. Anyone new reading will wonder who the heck I am referring to with OS.

    2. We didn’t get above 91 but the heat index did get up to 100 at some point. On our way down now. 87 with 71 DP

  67. I wonder IF there will be a new Watch for areas South of the current one?
    Or the SPC will leave it to the local NWS offices?

    Hmmm

  68. 19Z HRRR has the Storms in CT and NH depicted pretty well:

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018061819/002/ref1km.us_ne.png

    has them a bit weaker, but still good rains approaching Boston at the 7PM Hour

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018061819/004/ref1km.us_ne.png

    and more rapidly approaching in the 9PM hour

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018061819/006/ref1km.us_ne.png

    And a final batch with the Front around Midnight

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018061819/010/ref1km.us_ne.png

    total qpf

    http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018061819/017/qpf_acc.us_ne.png

    about 1/4 inch for boston and 2 inches well to the West.

  70. That storm that has the warning for my area looks to be a pulse type thunderstorm. weakens then strengthens and now is in a weakening phase.

  72. Very slight rotation about 20 minutes ago with that storm with the severe thunderstorm warning when it was east of Poughkepssie NY. Would not be surprised if the storm strengthens some again.

  74. The action is there and points north today. These storms are moving at a pretty good clip.

  78. Vicki I was surprised they kept the severe thunderstorm warning for my area until 5:15. It was one of the most unimpressive storms I have seen with a severe thunderstorm warning attached to it.

  79. I see an area just south of Greenfield MA with a red shading which is the color for used for a tornado warning

  80. Tornado warning for areas around Amherst till 6PM. Separate severe storm warnig northern Franklin and Worcester Counties

  81. I’m going to jinx this area but I want to pull my outdoor umbrellas down now. Decisions decisions

  82. Vicki its not a bad idea. When I was under the tornado warning a month ago I pulled my deck furniture inside just to be safe.

  88. Reading the latest mesoscale discussion from SPC does not look like a watch will be posted as this looks to remain an isolated severe threat.

  92. Boston area now under severe thunderstorm warning until 7:15pm Wind gusts 70mph with this storm.

    1. To be honest with all the tornado warnings embedded in the tstorm boxes I am absolutely fine with nothing tonight. Hope everyone stays safe

  96. These thunderstorms from reading the text in the warning are packing a punch with these strong wind gusts.

  99. Wow. Awesome photos. Just had a rumble of thunder that vibrated house a bit. I’m surprised as everything looks too far away

  100. A little surprised at the ferocity of some of these storms this afternoon, and at how far south the threat has extended. Some very good wind signatures on radar and a couple of tornado warnings which look to have been well warranted. Activity should weaken heading east-southeast.

  101. Hearing thunder in the city from cell passing just to the North.
    temp down to 83, dp down to 67

  102. One of those tornado warned storms we clearly could see a funnel. The question is did it touch the ground and become a tornado. SREF model did great job picking up on this tornado potential.

  103. I have a friend in Warren. If anyone thinks of it and sees reason for her to head to a safe room, I’d sure appreciate it. Right now tornado warned area is west of her

  106. very strong winds, some good lightning . lightning strikes about 2 miles from my location. heavy rain, kind of surprised that I saw hail even when the ingredients are not good for hail formation.

  107. I am not seeing any tornado warnings right now. Severe thunderstorm warning continues for the Boston area. The warned storms that don’t have tornado warnings attached to them look like there packing a punch.

  108. NWS Boston/Norton tweeting out numerous pockets of tree and wire damage in northeast MA.

  114. Well I’ll just keep talking to myself. I am a Gemini after all so have a twin somewhere

    The reumblimg to my SW is scary long. I think I’m correct that it will slip to my south

  116. It appears Boston dodged a bullet, at least Dorchester. It was threatening with just a bit of thunder in the distance. Just ordinary showers. Not sure if there was a weakening or a miss of a big storm. Hopefully no more opportunities overnight.

    JPD, how was JP?

    1. Ahh another brave soul. It looked to me as if it slid north of JPD but not sure

      Some rain here now. Not a lot but anything is welcome

  118. Vicki, this is what you are hearing:
    .A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHEASTERN WINDHAM…SOUTHEASTERN WORCESTER…SOUTHWESTERN
    NORFOLK AND NORTHWESTERN PROVIDENCE COUNTIES…

    At 742 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oxford, or 11
    miles south of Worcester, moving east at 35 mph.

    HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect damage to trees
    and power lines.

    Locations impacted include…
    Woonsocket, Cumberland, Franklin, Milford, Smithfield, Lincoln,
    Grafton, Webster, Southbridge, Bellingham, Auburn, Burrillville,
    Northbridge, Oxford, Holliston, Uxbridge, Millbury, Charlton, Medway
    and North Smithfield.

    1. Thanks JRW. I think it missed a bunch of those which is fine with me and my daughter in Uxbridge. It literally split around us with the worst going well south. I can still hear the rumbling since I’m sitting in a south facing window.

      Even though we didn’t get anything, I’ve enjoyed every second and hope those who did get direct hits are all right

  120. I am curious if that funnel that I posted earlier did reach the ground to produce a tornado.

  121. Northeastern parts of Litchfield and parts of Northern Hartford county could get a good storm. Damaging wind signature on that storm.

  125. Thanks for the posts JJ. Impressive images from all the spin ups late this PM to our north! Just some run of the mill downpours, thunder and lightning here in Manchester CT.

    And most importantly, Happy Birthday Vicki! Hope you enjoyed your day.

      1. Just been very busy lately with work, end of the school year activities, and kids sports. But I have been reading!

    1. 0.37 in a very short time. Won’t help much. But some. Great light show and one crack that shook the neighborhood

    2. Hahaha. It was a wonderful 47th Joshua. Thank you. Should we pretend my oldest won’t be 38 this year 🙂 :):)

  131. Break from weather stuff, Went to the movies for the first time in a while. Went and saw Incredibles 2, have to say pixar does a good job with sequals compared to many other organizations. Had a good laugh about 12 to 14 times lol. Loved the first one but this was just as good. Can not say that for most movies. I heard they were making a toy story 4. they should of stopped at 2. Last one stunk.

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