Wednesday Forecast

132 Comments

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)
The Dog Days have been in full force and we get one more today, but then a little break is coming up, more from the heat than the humidity, however we are going to feel somewhat of a break in the humidity as well for a short period of time during the end of this week. First, 3 players will be the trigger for possible showers and thunderstorms. The first will be a sea breeze boundary that forms today along both eastern and southern coasts of southern New England which can trigger isolated to scattered showers/storms any time from early afternoon to early evening. The second will be a trough approaching from the west that will have already fired off showers/storms in more of a line or line clusters to the west of the region. This will bring the risk of isolated to scattered showers/storms in from west to east later this evening and into the morning hours of Thursday. The third is a cold front which will be crossing the region during the course of the day Thursday and this will extend the showers and storm threat, although coverage is expected to drop off from west to east during the day. Beyond this conglomeration of firing mechanisms, we get a sliver of warm but drier air for Friday. The position of high pressure, and a bit of a low pressure circulation developing to the south, is going to result in an air flow from the east or southeast during the coming weekend, resulting in a more significant break from any heat. The moisture associated with the low pressure circulation should stay far enough south to allow a rain-free Saturday, but the threat of some wet weather increases by Sunday as this area creeps a bit to the north. We’ll also notice the humidity making a comeback during the course of the weekend, especially by Sunday, even without the heat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Hazy sun dominant early then clouds popping up leading to a variably cloudy sky with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 65-73. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms morning. Partly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)
A low pressure circulation to the south combines with trough moving eastward in the jet stream, allowed by a weakening and shifting eastward of the Atlantic high pressure ridge, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms during the August 13-14 period. A more westerly flow with drier weather follows this and with a little more strength to the ridge off the coast it pushes the jet stream north again and allows a trend to hotter weather after a cooler start to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)
The ridge holds on early in the period then gives way briefly to a passing trough, a shower/thunderstorm threat, and a quick shot of cooler air, before a quick return to warmth and humidity later in the period.

132 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!. HRRR picks up the storms in eastern mass nicely with what you mentioned about the coastal front. Those storms can be big sometimes in my experience. hoping to see some nice storm later today

          1. I guess the old saying is true. go with your first instinct lol. btw I wonder why my emojis don’t work on here? I’m on Mobil I don’t know if that makes a difference

      1. I was thinking that also but went with the first 😉

        I’m hoping for a nice storm also. I thought maybe last night but the line went poof west of here. I sat out for a bit hoping that I’d see lightning in the distance but even that wasn’t in the card.

  7. Sea breeze down here in Sarasota really ignites the afternoon storms down here. Already 80° 77° DP. Back to RI for a wedding in Nahant on Saturday afternoon with east wind should be comfortable.

  8. The venue for the wedding is the ocean view in Nahant looks like a great place on the ocean for a wedding. Has anyone been there? Thanks.

  11. Thanks TK !

    For August 1st thru the 7th ……… Logan’s average high temp was 90.4F and its average low temp was 73.4F, for an overall 81.9F, which gives a positive anomaly of 8.5F

  12. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    I’m going to throw this thought out there, don’t know if it’s correct.

    NAO chart above shows positive phase all summer. Implication : progressive flow with lower pressure at 500 mb across far, far northeast Canada and thus, nothing at our latitude to suppress the jet stream, resulting in all the heat and humidity the last 6 to 7 weeks.

    Look at the projection of the NAO though. Perhaps trending negative.

    Implication, higher 500 mb pressure somewhere around northeast Canada or Greenland, which could help to force a trof or summer version of the Hudson Bay polar vortex further south increasing chances for a push of legitimate cooler air further south around the time frames TK indicated yesterday.

  13. Robert, in 1969 I lived in Nahant for close to a year. I was 5, so I don’t remember much. But, my family loved it there. On occasion I drive over there to revisit the past. Beautiful views. Interesting place.

    Turns out we lived next to a mobster, but we didn’t know that until the police showed up one day collecting bullet casings from our lawn.

    1. Excellent – and good to have you back with our morning songs. I have a new addition to my sound system and I can play from any device to it so now I can listen to your links – and everyone’s – around the house 😉

      1. So-So at best. I wouldn’t pay for the upgrade, but rather
        just obtain the free version. IMHO, the upgrade isn’t
        worth it. I just tried the trial and will cancel at the end of
        the trial period.

        1. Ahhh great to know. Are you testing the MyRadar Pro? I’d be interested in your thoughts. I’m happy that it warns for thunder as well as tornado but still use it in conjunction to RadarScope but then I am more used to RadarScope

          1. I like MyRadar Pro for moving from location to location and seeing the display without having
            to select a radar site. On the other hand,
            RadarScope is my go to Radar Display. I purchased the Tier 1 upgrade and absolutely love the dual display option.

            With that, I display the regular radar screen on one display and the Storm relative radial velocities on the other. WONDERFUL tool.

            I HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend this app
            to anyone with a smart phone. TK was the one
            who turned me onto to it.

            1. Ohhhh – I will look into that. Is the dual app difficult to see on a tablet?? I just checked mine and I have not upgraded. The Tier 1 is an annual subscription?? If you are able to see the dual screen on a tablet and if you think even a hack like myself would find value in it, I’ll get it today. I do enjoy checking all of the different radars.

  18. Thanks TK. The HRRR has, on several runs this morning, indicated potential for a slow moving/backbuilding cluster of t-storms near Boston later today. Perhaps an isolated urban flash flood risk this afternoon if that materializes. They had that issue in the Hartford area last night. PWATs near 2″ means any storms will produce torrential rains.

    1. I wouldn’t trust the HRRR as far as I could throw my shit box car!!!

      Translation: I’ll believe that convection when I see it and I sincerely hope I do.

  19. Parts of Hartford County last night had a flash flooding warning due to that heavy rainfall. The atmosphere is so loaded with moisture with all this humidity in place.

  22. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geJaZKB2tbGCgAn9Zx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTBydWNmY2MwBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1533769674/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.wunderground.com%2fweather-radar%2funited-states%2fma%2fboston%2fbox%2f/RK=2/RS=lAYxxq62TOCb1r3tl619xa1_mwE-

    We’re thinking the beach from 12 to 6 today with the 3 pm low tide on our favorite marshfield beach, exposed only at low tide.

    I’m always a bit wary of coastal front convection. It’s not the storms that turn the western horizon dark 30 minutes before arrival.

    It’s those that develop overhead, where the first lightning can be overhead and without warning.

    I posted the radar because I think I see the seabreeze and usually storms don’t do great to its east.

    We have cumulus developing quickly, except in the eastern quarter of the sky, where they are falling apart.

        1. No sooner I open my mouth and the sea breeze at
          Logan has picked up in intensity. ENE at 8 mph.
          Would prefer a SE sea breeze for sea Breeze convection.
          Well at least I would. Not sure what effect a NE sea breeze
          would have. The water is do warm, it probably wouldn’t
          matter. Still not convinced.

  23. Joshua – I love your photos. I’m glad you mentioned the weather kiosk in a later comment or I would have missed it. I seem to recall those being there when I went to school in Boston or perhaps earlier when we went into town with my parents.

    There was a comment on FB the other day about a horrendous heat wave in the early 1900s. The photo showed men in jackets and ties. I don’t recall ever seeing my father i law without a jacket although he often wore a sports shirt underneath. My dad was most always in a suit or jacket also. And yes, women in long skirts. The year before I went to Gibbs, they stopped our having to wear hats but we still had to wear gloves. Even for our assemblies (dances) as a youth, boys and girls wore gloves. I’m sorry we have moved away from what I always considered proper dress. That being said…I’m the worst offender. I just like being comfortable 🙂

  24. Clouds are building here, but then they did yesterday also. Temp is a bit lower (into low to mid 80s) but DP is still in low 70s. Meanwhile, I’m researching patio heaters for winter – thanks for the prompting, Keith 🙂

    2. They really need to make it possible to keep a pool open year round too now that we have deck heaters :).

  26. We have ACTION out there.
    Hope I am out of a meeting for they arrive here, IF they arrive here. :d

      1. We can see the dark clouds, with those showers/storms, to our north on the beach.

        Gentle seabreeze going, with lower cumulus clouds dissolving as they hit the water.

      1. I was going to ask what to set to. I just started playing with it so have no idea what I’m doing yet.

        1. Click on the velocity you have at the bottom of that display.Scroll up or down as the case may be until you
          find:
          Storm Relative Velocity.

          Good luck. Any trouble, please post. I’ll be checking
          now and then.

          https://imgur.com/a/hAOfo2s

          1. Found it. Dumb question. I don’t won’t both screens set to that ..correct? Is that for right or left screen and what should other be set to?

            1. You want one to be set to Classic Reflectivity Tilt 1 OR Composite Reflectivity. Your choice or any other you want.

              AND the other screen to the velocity display. 😀

    1. I wonder if an outflow boundary reached Marshfield, because a light SE seabreeze has become a steadier north northeast breeze and it feels wonderful sitting here at the low tide line.

  33. This is AWESOME!!!

    Thunderstormarama! popping all over!
    I’ve been waiting for something like this!

    So, are these officially sea breeze induced? Or trough/short-wave induced?
    Air mass induced? Or Other?

  35. Special weather statement out for a thunderstorm south of Boston 30mph winds torrential rainfall and frequent lightning happening with that thunderstorm.

  36. Urban flash flood potential was a good call today. Already a couple bullseye areas where radar is estimating near 1.5″ rain in short order. More on the way next couple hours.

  37. Rain does clean out the air a little. Not like snow or cold, but still. The garbage areas and dumpsters where I live, but also throughout the city, really smell terrible during HHH periods. Nauseating at times.

  38. 0.87 inches in Back Bay. Rain coming down again. I’m headed out for errands, with a Ben Franklin lightning rod in hand to test Mother Nature.

  40. HRRR is a stellar convection model about 90% of the time. It has nailed nearly every event this season but blown a couple others big time. Today, it is performing excellently. This was part of what made my mind up to go for the activity triggered by the sea breeze front when updating the blog this morning.

    1. Yep, I had a good feeling that the HRRR was tuned in today. If anything convection was a little more widespread and came on a little earlier than it showed.

      1. Indeed it did. I tried to anticipate that possible error by just using the blanket phrase of “this afternoon” to cover it. 😉 Well, technically my words were “early afternoon to early evening” regarding the sea breeze boundary activity.

  41. Here’s the storm that’s currently over Route 3 when it was just to my north over Norton and Easton about 30 minutes ago. It took me that long to figure out how to it onto imgur.com. But I am learning albeit every slowly!! 🙂

    https://imgur.com/a/9LniBZD

    2. It took me a bit with Imgur also and the great (she says sarcastically) is that it is slightly different on iPad, iPhone and computer 🙂

      Well done captain

      1. Don’t think so. But it does appear to be weakening. So what
        else is new? May get a bit more rain, even if not a good storm.

    1. Trough-related stuff. That activity may hang around for a while into central MA and southern NH away from the coast then later tonight the remains of it, boundaries, etc, may help kick off some nocturnal showers and/or storms.

  45. One of the strangest summers I can remember. While T storms have sprung up numerous times, in North Reading, we have been spared almost every time.

    1. Vivid lightning and very loud thunder with it in Wilmington, and we’re not even in the core! Also interesting that that warning text mentions “large hail.”

  48. Got very dark in Sudbury – lots of thunder. Now REAL loud thunder, lots of lightning, some cloud to cloud and torrential rain. Thunder so loud scared our cat. No wind that I can tell. Looks like more well to the west of us.

    1. Nice Marjie. Be safe. Thunder at any level is to be respected as I know you know

      Dark to north of here but line is lagging west here. Maybe we will get some of the every day thunder many of us have been hoping for and was in TKs forecast.

  49. All in all please don’t kill me for saying this. I thought all of these storms were non severe. Good rains localized. But certainly not widespread?

    2. The forecast (from me) was isolated to scattered evening, scattered to widespread overnight. That timing was off a little bit.

  50. We have learned a lot from this blog. Many folks get extremely excited over snow events, hot spells, cold spells, etc etc.

    1. You didn’t need the blog to learn that. Just watch the news. 😉 Question, you say “we” a lot. Who are you referring to? Us all? You and someone else?

  52. Snow events and thunderstorms excited me the most.
    Boston now under severe thunderstorm warning until 9:15pm 60 mph wind gusts possible with this storm.

  54. The storm moving towards Sutton was the one I was commenting on. Boston that storm has a severe thunderstorm warning.

    1. Thank you JJ. Greatly appreciated. Lightning is more sporadic now. But I’m enjoying sitting in the dark and quiet watching

  56. I was able to enjoy watching a good thunderstorm moving through at my grandparents place with my Grandpa and uncle Jim, I don’t get to do things just them and me like I use too, but being on the screened in porch and watching the thunderstorm move through with the lightning, basically across the street, with the thunder rattling the entire house, was cool.

      1. Awww Matt. I think there was a lot more to this storm than just thunder and lightning. I have happy tears reading your comment. You’ll see mine in FB. I wasn’t with my granddaughter but we made a memory I’ll never forget.

        There is something about tonight that is ….

        No words. Just is

  57. good moring. evening storm was mostly a bust here. bivid frequent lightning just tobour west, but dtorme wajned as it approached. then briefly gained some strength and tgen went poof. totalt rain
    1 75 inches. dann mobile keyboard

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