Monday Forecast

48 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)
High pressure brings fair weather today, low pressure diving across the Great Lakes and crossing the Northeast brings unsettled weather Tuesday, then a shot of chilly air arrives behind this for midweek with high pressure building in with fair weather into late this week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain midday and afternoon which may begin as some sleet interior MA and southern NH. Highs 45-53. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a risk of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Diminishing breeze. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)
The period of October 27-29 is highly uncertain, detail-wise, but is likely to be unsettled and possibly quite stormy for a portion of it. Timing and specifics are still unknown. There could still be a scenario which brings 2 separate systems nearby or over the region (October 27 and 29) and a scenario where it is one main system (October 28). These scenarios also leave open the possibility for frozen precipitation to be included especially for interior higher elevations. The weather should turn more tranquil toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
Watch for another possible storm system in the first days of November as the temporarily stormy pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.

48 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    2. I have not seen mosquitoes for a few weeks here which makes me very happy. We did have something wandering around the hill behind our yard when I was out watching for meteors last night. It made enough noise to be the size of an elephant.

      1. I have only seen 2 all year. Saw one yesterday morning
        as I exited my vehicle in the Roche Bros. parking lot in
        W. Roxbury. I was somewhat surprised to be sure.

  6. Morning, everyone.
    Thanks, TK…
    Brisk, frosty morning.
    I agree with Tom: thick frost on the windshield.
    Extra elbow grease to scrape it off.

  7. Re: Frost this morning

    No frost on grass.
    No Frost on car, other than a slight touch of it on the roof.

    I guess the temperature and dew point spread was too large.

    Temp 28
    DP 24

    I guess farther out that separation, especially at ground level, was o or near 0???

      1. That’s the million dollar question, and as I said yesterday Willa is the main uncertainty in the storm equation.

        IMO, to a first order, a stronger Willa means more energy available for our potential storm. But there will be more that goes into it of course.

        1. Indeed. Fascinating. I watch to see how this
          develops. Each day, the models come up with
          a different solution.

          I find the 6Z GFS to be intriguing. IF (I know that is a huge if), that were the case, it would not take much of
          a change to bring a substantial snowfall to most of
          interior New England and perhaps even a touch of back end snow to the coast.

          Any hint suggesting more of an inside runner of course would KILL all of that.

          Dying to see the next installment of the computer models.

    2. Interesting that it is actually Willa that spawns our forecast “big” Nor’Easter.
      We shall see how that all shakes out.

    1. Than the other models? OR to previous Euro runs?
      It has been close to the coast on the last couple of runs.

  12. My current leaning is toward an almost out to sea but close enough for rain Saturday, in-between but somewhat unsettled Sunday, and a second system with a rain/snow line Monday. This is FAR from a final forecast, obviously, but just wanted to give you an idea of which way I’m leaning. Like WxW said above we can’t figure out much until Willa’s made some significant progress and then see how it will help things evolve.

      1. The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, consists of storms with sustained winds exceeding 156 mph (70 m/s; 136 kn; 251 km/h).

    2. The greater impact of that is cold supply versus snow chances. Although I say that with reservation because my second early idea is that we see the majority of winter’s snowfall possibly before we’re out of 2018.

    3. I’d much rather have cold supply nearby heading into the winter than the reverse. We’ll have our storm chances and even if we are in an overall dry pattern, we can pull out an average to above average winter with some dry, powdery snow events.

      I’m also not convinced all these southern stream storms are going to get shunted south. Some of them are bound to get up here and make an impact. And they will if there is more cold to work with.

      1. I really don’t think snowfall is going to be that high. I think it’s going to be that dry.

  18. Here’s a trip down memory lane with the NBC CT broadcast 7 years ago on the evening of 10/29/11 with Gerry Brooks, Brad Field, and Ryan Hanrahan….

    https://youtu.be/zUC77aLpr9k

    Do we have a repeat in the works? Probably not, but I do have concerns if even 2-4″ of wet snow fell across interior areas. Many leaves are still on the trees (probably moreso than 10/29/11) so it wouldn’t take much to bring branches down.

    1. I share those concerns. We have 90% cover in my area of Sutton. I’d say generously 25% off in other areas.

      1. A possible saving grace is if this comes in 2 separate systems the first one may have enough wind to remove a lot of leaves.

        1. I hope you are right but with all the wind we have had, we have no leaves on the ground. They are still green and hanging tight. The lawn, however, is still growing as if it is mid summer.

          1. My lawn finally halted. We froze marginally a couple days ago and then had a hard freeze this morning. Once that temp is below 28 for more than a couple hours, all growth ceases.

            1. My son in law would be jealous. We have had several hard freezes. I think we need to stop feeding the lawn. We are giving it a jacket.

              This was a few days ago. Nothing has changed. But I was looking at pics from last year and it is the same.

              https://imgur.com/a/r7syzKF

  19. A cold and dry winter is better than a hot and dry winter, having cold at least lets the snow guns to blast on the slopes, but I have to say, I really do not think we will be overly dry. above normal precip probably not.

Comments are closed.