DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

“The heat goes on” as the well-used phrase goes, and it does here for another two days, but we are beyond the hottest and entering the most humid part of the stretch. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, moisture associated with a well-traveled disturbance is arriving from the southwest and will bump up our dew point today while the temperature aloft drops just so slightly, and this will allow for pop up showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon and linger until this evening. Not everywhere will see one of these, and there may be a few locations that get tagged by one or two of them, which can produce torrential downpours and of course some lightning, so be on the look-out if you have outdoor plans. And as a reminder, if you are outside or working in a hot environment, stay hydrated! It doesn’t take much to dehydrate in weather like this and sometimes you don’t even feel it coming on. Our mugginess will be hanging around into Wednesday but a cold front will coming along from the north late in the day and at night. We’ll see a few more showers and storms ahead of and along this front, though it doesn’t look like super-well-organized or widespread severe activity. Can’t really ever rule out a briefly stronger storm though in a few locations. Behind this front comes a dew point crash and a temperature decline for Thursday, which will feel very refreshing thanks to high pressure from Canada. One adjustment I am making to this forecast is taking the rain threat for later Friday that I had in yesterday’s update out of today’s update, as the trend is to keep any additional moisture to the south and a cooler maritime polar air mass in place late this week, including into the start of the weekend. One more reminder: Keeping an eye on the sky conditions for sunrise Thursday when we’ll have a partial solar eclipse ongoing, peaking about 5:30 a.m., less than a half hour after sunrise. If it is clear enough to view it, remember to use solar eclipse eye protection if you plan to view it.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly mid to afternoon to about sunset, with any of these possibly producing torrential downpours and quick localized street flooding. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be briefly variable and gusty around any showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast and interior lower elevations. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, partly to mostly clear overnight. Patches of ground fog forming. Lows 60-67. Lowering humidity – dew point falling through 60s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH then diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest eastern coastal areas through Cape Cod. Drier – dew point falling through 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear inland, coastal clouds possible. Lows 51-58. Dry – dew point upper 40s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Generally zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected. High pressure slides to the east of the region by June 13 with a warm-up. Approaching disturbance from the west may bring a rain shower later that day or at night. High pressure builds in with dry, seasonable weather for June 14 then a warm front may approach with a shower threat June 15 followed by a cold front with a shower/thunderstorm chance June 16. If that timing works out, high pressure would move in with dry weather at the end of the period behind the cold front.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Continuation of zonal flow pattern with variable temperatures not overly far from seasonal normals, and a couple chances for showers/t-storms with passing disturbances as we head toward the summer solstice (which occurs late at night on June 20).

C-19 Chat Post – June 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Seven days into June, but after the last few days you’d think it was late June or July, as we are in the midst of an early-season heatwave. But the end is in sight! So far, the humidity has been kept in check, with dew point temperatures staying several degrees below the oppressive threshold. That will continue today, however today will probably be the hottest day, temperature-wise, as we have the maximum amount of sunshine and the peak upper level ridging, with surface high pressure to the south pumping in the heat. There will be a weak surface trough sneaking into western portions of the WHW forecast area this afternoon and evening extending from a disturbance moving into the Great Lakes, and this may trigger a couple isolated showers or brief thunderstorms later today but that is a fairly remote chance. Tuesday, the heat may come down a couple notches on the thermometer in general, but you won’t notice it, because the dew point will climb a few, so it will essentially feel as hot and maybe even more uncomfortable to those sensitive to higher humidity. There will be an ever-so-slight shift of the upper ridge to the west while the surface high keeps sending in the heat and humidity. The surface trough will hang around extending from the disturbance lifting from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley, while increased moisture arrives from the southwest, having traveled all the way from the southern Plains with a weak upper level disturbance cutting through the high pressure ridge. This subtle increase in moisture and lowering of temperatures aloft, combined with solar heating, will lead to a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms, which will be isolated to scattered across more of the region Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Again though, there will probably be many locations that are missed by this activity, so don’t count on one of these to water your garden for you because it may not happen. If it does, it won’t hang around too long and any activity will fade away with sunset, leaving us with a very warm and sticky night as dew points reach their maximum for this stretch of summer weather. The high humidity will continue into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will be moving southward out of eastern Canada. As previously mentioned, the timing of this front is the primary determining factor in how hot we get Wednesday. While some increased cloud cover will help limit us from reaching the maximum potential temperature for the air mass, the frontal boundary will probably not make it into the region until late afternoon or evening at the earliest, so it will still be a very warm to hot and humid day. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely on this day of the next three for any given location. A few air mass showers and storms can pop up ahead of the front, but the front itself may help to organize a broken to possibly solid line of convective activity as it pushes through later in the day or at night. Will have to monitor closely that day for detailed timing and impact of activity, but not expecting any widespread severe weather due to lack of parameters for it. And then a big change comes! Behind the front, high pressure builds out of Canada for Thursday with a northeasterly air flow of cooler air with lower dew points, so it will feel much more comfortable. I’d love to tell you that we’re going to see two days like this, but Friday’s forecast is not that clear-cut. The front, after it comes through, is going to put its breaks on just south of New England and sit there, and a disturbance coming eastward from the Midwest may initiate a wave of low pressure on it. With high pressure to the north, and a low pressure wave moving eastward along a nearby front, I can’t rule out a period of rain at some point on Friday. This is not currently the scenario shown by all guidance, so there is some doubt, but for now I am going to lean toward this scenario, not quite like Memorial Day Weekend, but clouds, cool air, and some wet weather in the forecast, with the distinct possibility of having to tweak that outlook. Also of note, the sun will rise partially eclipsed on Thursday morning (June 10), so if the sky is clear enough we’ll be able to see that celestial spectacle. Updates to come…

TODAY: Sunny morning – any low clouds near South Coast dissipating. Sun/cloud mix afternoon/evening – slight chance of an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm southwestern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Moderate humidity – dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight except areas of low clouds and fog redeveloping near the South Coast. Lows 67-74. Higher humidity – dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: South Coast low clouds and fog diminishing during the morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly mid to afternoon to about sunset, with any of these possibly producing torrential downpours and quick localized street flooding. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be briefly variable and gusty around any showers/storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast and interior lower elevations. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patches of ground fog forming. Lows 60-67. Lowering humidity – dew point falling through 60s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH then diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest eastern coastal areas through Cape Cod. Drier – dew point falling through 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear inland, coastal clouds possible. Lows 51-58. Dry – dew point upper 40s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 65-72 but may turn cooler late-day. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Another push of high pressure from eastern Canada should bring dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures for June 12 to start the weekend, followed by a warm-up June 13 to end the weekend, with the possibility of the arrival of some rain showers with a system from the west. Generally west-to-east flow expected to evolve thereafter with dry/mild weather June 14, a warm front bringing clouds and showers June 15, and a cold front bringing the risk of showers/thunderstorms June 16 based on current medium range timing, but of course tweaks and changes are possible to this early outlook for mid June.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Continuation of zonal flow pattern with variable temperatures not overly far from seasonal normals, and a couple chances for showers/t-storms with passing disturbances as we head toward the summer solstice (which occurs late at night on June 20).

C-19 Chat Post – June 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

While it is technically late spring, the weather pattern will allow us to feel mid summer heat the next few days as high pressure sits over us aloft and a surface high builds across the Mid Atlantic then offshore through Tuesday. The air will be stable enough to keep any showers and thunderstorms from popping up through Monday, though we may see some remnant clouds in the sky at times from activity that occurs in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Tuesday, while we keep the ridging and hot weather in place, we will see an increase in available moisture in the form of higher dew point air (more humidity than the previous two days) and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms developing with the day’s heating. Not expecting widespread activity Tuesday, just scattered, but areas that do see something can be in for some very heavy downpours. Wednesday, a strong cold front will move down from eastern Canada and while the day likely is a humid and very warm one ahead of the front, there will be the risk of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front as it moves through the region, the details of which can be fine tuned as we get a little closer to this event. Behind the front, Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler and drier weather to our region Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine and patchy high clouds. Highs 90-97 except much cooler South Coast / Cape Cod and a few protruded locations on the eastern coast. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 91-98, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod again. Humid – dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 69-76. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Humid evening – dew point 60s, drying overnight – dew point falling to 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78, coolest eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. Dry – dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Canadian high pressure brings dry and seasonable weather for June 11. Attempted return of warmer and more humid air from the south sets up the potential for some unsettled weather in the June 12-13 period. High pressure should return with fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

As we head down the home stretch of astronomical spring and toward the summer solstice (late on June 20), expect a generally zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – June 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Early June heat will be the theme of the next 5 days, starting to build in today as high pressure ridging aloft starts to build in from the west while surface high pressure slides toward the Mid Atlantic States from the Midwest. A disturbance will cross northern New England today where there will be showers and thunderstorms, and we’ll see an assortment of clouds mostly to the distant north from this activity, but here in the WHW forecast area we will just see some cumulus clouds pop up with the heating of the day working on residual moisture at the surface, but the warming of the air mass aloft will keep this activity from building enough to produce any showers or storms in this area – just decorative clouds being the result. The high pressure ridge will edge eastward and increase the heat Sunday and Monday. Moderate humidity today may come down slightly for Sunday before coming back up a bit Monday, but there will not be any showers or storms popping in the daytime heat these days as it will be too stable. We may see some occasional higher level clouds crossing the sky, leftover debris from thunderstorms that pop up in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Heat hangs on Tuesday when the humidity will increase as high pressure to the south is able to tap more moisture and send it our way, and this may result in the development of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms that day – something to watch for. The next thing to monitor is the timing of a cold front dropping down from the north on Wednesday. Later timing allows one more at least partial day of heat and humidity. Quicker timing would limit this. Leaning toward later timing for now but not with high confidence. We’ll also have the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms accompanying this front at some point during Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Moderately humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. A few fog patches inland lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Moderate humidity – dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Slightly humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Moderately humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. More humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Very humid – dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Very humid – dew point near 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Upper high pressure shifts westward, high pressure at the surface builds down from Canada bringing cooler/dry weather June 10-11. Attempted return of warmer and more humid air from the south sets up the potential for some episodic unsettled weather in the June 12-14 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – June 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

A weakening cold front / trough will move through the region today. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be initiated by this system combined with humidity in place and daytime heating, with most likely a broken line of convective activity forming somewhere in southern NH and central MA early this afternoon then progressing southeastward with time. Before that, some shower activity is also possible again near the South Coast where there is also more low cloudiness and fog in place due to higher dew point air in that region. The rest of the region does get into higher humidity today as well as the trough / front moves through. The shower and potential thunderstorm activity that it generates will be non-severe, but a few of them can produce brief heavy downpours and short-lived bursts of gusty wind, so be on the look-out for that especially if traveling. Tonight, any remaining activity diminishes as it moves across the South Coast region, which may still be mired in some low clouds and fog, and with temperatures falling a bit to meet the still relatively high dew points this evening we may see areas of fog forming elsewhere in the region before finally some drier air arrives from the west toward morning to clear it all out. At most we may see some lingering cloudiness around early Saturday, otherwise the sun will take over as high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and this pattern strengthens during the weekend into early next week bringing much of the region its first heat wave of the season (heat wave being defined as 3 or more days with a high temperature of 90 or higher). There will be exceptions, most especially the South Coast, where a southwesterly component to the air flow is off the water and will keep it cooler there. There are a few land protrusions along the East Coast of MA that may also fail to reach 90 on one or more of these days for the same reason, but in general, the heat will be on for most during this time. There will be a frontal boundary not all that far to the north of the region at times, especially Sunday, and then after being pushed northward Monday it approaches again later Tuesday, but for now the expectation is this boundary will stay far enough north to have no impact on the weather here.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Chance of showers South Coast through midday. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms southern NH / central MA early afternoon through eastern MA / northeastern CT / RI later afternoon. Highs 73-80. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers South Coast region evening. Areas of fog, especially evening. Lows 58-65. Humid evening – dew point 60+, then drying overnight with dew point falling into 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds especially southern and eastern areas then sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point under 60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. A few fog patches inland lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Upper level high pressure ridge axis shift westward enough to allow a cold front down from eastern Canada which may bring clouds and a shower at some point June 9 but mainly a cool-down back to the upper 70s and 80s. This boundary won’t be that far to the south and may allow some disturbances to ride along it producing at least some cloudiness at times and potential a few threats for shower activity in the region June 10-11 while we’re on its cooler side before it may lift back to the north and put us on the warmer / humid side with a shower or t-storm risk June 12-13. Don’t interpret this as a wet and cloudy pattern, just some activity to follow with the frontal system in the vicinity.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats from passing disturbances, but dry weather most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – June 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

A warm front approaches today with lots of clouds and some shower activity. The best support for most widespread rainfall is near the South Coast and especially Cape Cod through midday today. Any other area may see a few showers but expect activity elsewhere to be somewhat limited. The warm front crosses the region tonight with isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but again the highest coverage may be closer to the South Coast. We’ll be in the warm sector post warm front and pre cold front on Friday with a southwesterly air flow and higher humidity with lots of clouds and the chance of passing showers at any time, though again it looks like any one location will be rain-free most of the time. A weakening cold front will finally make it across the region Friday evening when one more shower or thunderstorm is possible from a diminishing line that forms to the west during the day but weakens as it moves across the WHW forecast area. That front, or what’s left of it, will lift back across the region early Saturday with some cloudiness, and then the door will be open to the arrival of much warmer air from the west as a ridge of high pressure takes over both at the surface and aloft with a westerly air flow. So Saturday turns out in the 80s for most (70s for Cape) and Sunday upper 80s to lower 90s for most with your cooler spots in the typical areas like Cape Cod, and right now it looks like the heat peaks on Monday with lower to middle 90s away from ocean influences, but this could be held back by some spill over cloudiness that arrives from thunderstorm activity in the Midwest, something that is not unusual to see in this pattern at this time of year. Either way, Monday should still have the feel of mid summer despite it being early June and still technically spring.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm South Coast, scattered to isolated showers elsewhere. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. More humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 72-79. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Slightly drier – dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mostly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 8-12)

The axis of the upper ridge should shift westward enough to allow a back door cold front down from eastern Canada June 8-9 (exact timing uncertain) with mostly dry weather but somewhat cooler air arriving. Battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and the attempted return of warm/humid air may cause episodes of unsettled weather June 10-12.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats as a frontal boundary will often be nearby.

C-19 Chat Post – June 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

Transition time! So technically it’s still spring, until the summer solstice occurs late at night on June 20, but we can get early-season bouts of summer heat, and it appears we may be setting up for one of those to arrive toward the end of this 5-day period. Before we get there, we have some changes to go through – nothing drastic, but notable in the form of a couple more unsettled weather days, but this time not with temperatures that feel more like early April like we saw over the Memorial Day Weekend. Today you’ll notice an increase in clouds ahead of a warm front, which will be moving through the region tomorrow with a few rounds of showers (maybe a few thunderstorms) and an increase in humidity. The parent low for this front will be moving north of us and dragging its cold front through the region on Friday, which will be a rather humid and at times showery day, although a good part of that day may also end up rain-free. But in this case the term “cold front” does not mean that cold air is coming. It may turn a bit cooler and less humid on Friday evening as the front moves offshore, but it’s not going to be followed by a big high pressure area and cool Canadian air. Instead, the jet stream lifting to the north will push that boundary right back across the region as a warm front (with limited activity, just clouds and maybe a brief shower) probably early Saturday, and then during the course of the weekend we’ll build in the summertime heat with dry weather and a gradual increase in humidity, though not to oppressive levels…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 70-77. More humid – dew point climbing to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 72-79. Humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Slightly drier – dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible early, then mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Slightly more humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. More humid – dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 7-11)

High pressure offshore brings warm to hot weather with a small risk of a few showers and thunderstorms around as a front from the northwest gets closer to the region, which should eventually push through with some slightly cooler weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

Expecting a mostly zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – June 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

After a cool and wet Memorial Day Weekend, which dried out just as it was ending, we have some warmer days coming in as we begin the month of June. High pressure parks off the US Mid Atlantic Coast much of this week, but we still have to push out the lingering cool of the weekend today so the warm up, while noticeable, will be a bit slow to really get going, and there will be a lot of high cloudiness in the sky filtering the sunshine as warmer air moves in aloft as well. By Wednesday, we end up with a bit more sun, but then the clouds come back again later in the day as a disturbance approaches, and this may cause a shower at night, but nothing widespread. Thursday’s humidity and shower threat increases as a cold front approaches. I’ve been back and forth for a few days on whether or not this front fully pushes through the region or moves in and then hangs around. Right now I’m leaning in a direction of frontal passage and it moving offshore allowing slightly less warm and somewhat drier air in on Friday, although it will still be somewhat unstable with a shower threat there. Warmer air makes a return Saturday as that frontal boundary comes back as a warm front and should be moving through during the morning with some clouds and maybe a shower, then more sun and higher humidity…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 74-81. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 71-78. Less humid. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 58-65. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a shower possible early, then partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. More humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 6-10)

High pressure offshore brings warm to hot weather June 6 with a minimal shower or thunderstorm threat. Maybe a slightly better shower and thunderstorm threat as a frontal boundary gets closer early next week, but unclear if that front pushes all the way through and dries out the air around mid week. Something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Low confidence outlook for zonal pattern with variable temperatures and a few shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.