2:45AM

The very slow pattern change remains in progress, despite claims to the contrary. We’re much drier, and not as warm relative to normal, and this will continue to be the case for the coming days as well. This is in response to a split flow pattern in which the northern (polar) jet stream is dominating our weather with minor precipitation events and mostly just temperature changes while the southern (subtropical) jet stream is remaining to the south and keeping most storminess away from the area.

A weak cold front will drop southward across New England today with just some clouds associated with it. High pressure to the north will becoming dominant Wednesday with slightly cooler weather than today. We’re still not looking at any major cold outbreaks, but also gone are the big warm-ups. The next warming trend will be short-lived on Thursday as a warm front associated with a storm well northwest of us moves through. Ahead of this there is a very slight chance of some light rain (or mix if it comes in earlier enough). But most of the precipitation will come with a trailing cold front, and it will be in the form of scattered rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening. No widespread or heavy rain is expected. Friday will bring windy, chilly weather behind the cold front. The front will settle south of  New England over the weekend when a few disturbances may travel along it. At this time, it looks like any precipitation associated with these would remain south of New England, and we’ll just see chilly and dry weather.

A peek into next week reveals we will be in a battle zone between colder air to the north and lingering warmth to the south thanks to high pressure trying to hold on over the southeastern US. This should send at least 1 or 2 chances for precipitation our way in the days ahead of Christmas. It’s too early to call rain vs. snow on any of these potential threats, something to be fine-tuned in the days ahead.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunshine dominating much of the time but some clouds from the north later. High 43-48. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N late.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy – some coastal clouds from time to time. High 39-44. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31-36. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain (mix well NW of Boston) during the morning. Scattered rain showers during the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 26. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 42.

3:23AM

High pressure brings bright and milder weather today. A cold front from the north introduces some clouds later Tuesday and a slight cool down into Wednesday but with continued dry weather except for the possibility of a few light shower of snow or mixed rain/snow off the ocean early Wednesday. A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring the chance of light rain on Thursday. Only a touch of light snow would occur if any precipitation arrived earlier in the day, but it would not be significant. A couple cold fronts will drop temperatures back to near normal Friday and near to below normal over the weekend.  Any snow chances with these systems are on the low side as it stands now, probably just a few snow showers.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few light mix/snow showers through midday. High 37-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Slight chance of light snow/mix morning. Chance of light rain afternoon. Low 30. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of light rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 37.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 33.

2:47AM

Just another tweak of the previous. A full discussion of the week ahead will appear tonight.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from 15-20 inland valleys to 25-30 Boston. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 31-36. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind N-NE 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 51.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers morning. Isolated snow showers afternoon. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 42.

2:56AM

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny  Temperature steady 40-45. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 15-20 inland valleys ranging to near 30 Boston. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 45.

9:50PM

We’ve entered a new weather pattern, a quiet one for now, dominated by the northern (polar) jet stream. Only weak systems will come along with this jet stream, with very slight chances for any rain or snow shower activity. The southern (subtropical) jet stream will be well to the south, keeping most storminess away from New England.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low from near 20 inland valleys to lower 30s Boston. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny  Temperature steady 40-45. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 15-20 inland valleys ranging to near 30 Boston. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 45.

2:43AM

The soaker of Wednesday is on its way out. Heavy rain is still moving through the Boston area as of the time of this writing but by the time most of you see this, the storm will be long gone. Air remained too warm to allow much of a flip to snow in this area, with snow confined to higher elevations far west and north of Boston.

Other than a weak disturbance passing the region Friday night and early Saturday, high pressure will be in general control for the next several days with chilly (or more normal) weather with generally dry conditions.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 43-48. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH, diminishing slowly during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 31-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 46.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered snow showers. Low 27. High 41.

1:27AM

The slow transition from abnormally warm to seasonable cold continues. Another wet day will be the result today. There may not be much rain falling at AM commute time, but during the course of the day, it will get wetter, and the PM commute will be a soaker. Some heavy rain will occur during the evening hours. As the wave of low pressure responsible for this races by in the early hours of Thursday, colder air will be coming in, resulting in some snow in higher elevations and a mix with or flip to sleet then snow elsewhere including closer to Boston. This will not be a significant snow event for most areas, with only mountain areas well west and north of Boston seeing any appreciable amounts. The Boston area will see nothing more than a slushy coating of snow early Thursday, with up to 1 inch in the 495 belt.

The express-train storm will be gone by mid morning Thursday with sun returning at that time, along with a gusty breeze and chilly air. A disturbance approaching the region Friday may produce a few clouds but most of them will move in at night and early Saturday, when there may be some snow showers or even a period of snow, before the system moves away. This does not look like an important system.

Dry and seasonably chilly weather will dominate the region on Sunday followed by some moderation in temperature early next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast with episodes of rain. Temperature falling from the middle 50s to the middle 40s during the course of the day. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain, heavy at times, mixing with sleet toward dawn, changig to snow around dawn with minor accumulation (under 1 inch unpaved surfaces in some areas and perhaps around 1 inch in the 495 belt). Low 32-37.  Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Snow/mix ending early, rapid clearing following, then sun mixed with passing clouds during the afternoon. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 41-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: AM snow showers. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 54.

3:15AM

A slow-moving cold front will cross New England today. Waves of low pressure moving northeastward along it will bring showery weather, mainly in the form of rain, through early Thursday, though enough cold air will be moving in for a possible mix with and/or change to snow before the precipitation threat ends.

Colder weather will move in later in the week. A weak disturbance may produce clouds and a few snow showers sometime on Friday. Fair and chilly weather is expected this weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain showers. High 55-60. Wind S under 10 MPH shifting NW during the day from west to east.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, may mix with or change to snow before dawn. No significant snow accumulation. Low 30-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow early then clearing west to east. High 42-47. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Low 28. High 41.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 42.

2:35AM

This week will start out very mild ahead of a slow moving cold front which will arrive during Tuesday. After some morning low clouds and areas of fog today, some partial sun will occur. Clouds and showers will be dominant Tuesday as the temperature starts to coast down with the passage of the front. Slightly drier air will be here Wednesday between one wave of low pressure that brings some rain Tuesday night and another low pressure wave which will bring a threat of rain or snow later Thursday with colder air in place. The Thursday event is more uncertain, as this system may end up too far east to bring any significant precipitation to the Boston area. Later this week, expect mostly dry and colder weather as some of the colder air from Canada and the western USA finally makes its way to New England.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog into mid morning giving way to some partial sun. High around 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving, especially after  midnight. Low near  50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers until midday. High 55-60 then cooling back toward 50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH in the morning, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. A period of rain. Low 40-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperature steady 40-45. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow PM. Low 32. High 42.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 41.

1:25AM

A cold night is in progress as I write this, but once the day dawns on Sunday, a new warm-up will be underway, and it will last for a few days before a slow-moving cold front and waves of low pressure send us back toward chilly weather late next week with some wet weather during the transition. Look for a full discussion of the coming week in the next post.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds forming, but remaining mostly clear in some areas. Calm wind. Low ranging from around 20 inland valleys to around 30 close to the coast.

SUNDAY: Areas of low clouds early otherwise sun filtered at times by higher cloudiness. High around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Low 42-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partial sun through dominant clouds. High around 60. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain showers likely. Low 50. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Rain showers likely, may end as snow showers at night. Overnight high 50. Late night low 35.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 47.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

This is worth its own post. Some of you may have seen it. If not, here it is. If you have, here it is again.

Thanks to A.J. Burnett from Fox 25 Boston for the link.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=897&MediaTypeID=2#fox25

3:06AM

It will be a great weekend around New England for doing Christmas shopping, last-minute yard work, or anything else you have planned, except maybe sledding or skiing (other than in some limited areas in the mountains that have had snow or made snow). A chilly day today will be followed by yet another warm-up to end the weekend and start the new week.

Without getting into technical details (which will come about in the comments section below), I think the same overall mild pattern with brief cool/cold shots continues through the 2nd weekend of December, after which we should see a new set-up taking over. My early feeling on the new setup is that it will feature near to below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, pretty much the opposite of the warm/wet pattern we’ve been in. We shall see if this comes to be, or if the atmosphere is getting ready to pull a fast one on yours truly.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Bright sunshine – few high clouds. High 40-45. Wind N mostly under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: A Triple-C night – clear/calm/cold. Lows drop to the upper 10s inland valleys ranging to near 30 in urban centers and along the immediate shoreline.

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine – variable high clouds. High 50-55. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers develop and become more numerous at night. Temperature cools through the 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may end as a mix or snow some areas at night. Temperature cools through the 40s.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

8:18PM

The Euro says: “Not yet!”

The pattern is slow to change. The atmosphere has been defiant of well-thought-out prognostications and stubborn to rearrange itself. I cannot ignore the fact the European model (ECMWF), since it has gotten itself back on track, is forecasting not a great deal of change for at least another week or so, in the overall very mild pattern with only brief cold shots. I have to go with it for now…

For the next several days, the weather players will be: A weak cold front moves through New England Friday with some clouds but no widespread precipitation (just some mountain snow flurries and squalls). A shot of chilly air will follow on Saturday, but quick on its heels will be the next warm-up, slated for Sunday and the first half of next week as a southwesterly to southerly flow again takes hold of New England ahead of a slow-moving frontal system.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Under a clear sky with a light NW wind, lows drop to near 20 in deeper valleys to the lower 30s near the coast.

FRIDAY: A sunny morning then varying amounts of clouds during the afternoon hours. After a cold start the high reaches 50 in most areas. Wind shifting to SW up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds exit early, the rest of the night is left clear and turns cold again. Low in the upper 20s except lower 30s urban areas and immediate coast. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH early then diminishing to around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine dominates with a chill in the air. High right around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Calm. Cold. Low from 20 inland valleys to 30 at the sea shore.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High warms back to 50+. Wind S to SW around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 44. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 46. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Low 44. High 50.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Early high 44. Late night low 30.

4:52PM

High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend, though a reinforcing weak cold front will pass the region on Friday night. We’ll be on the cooler side of high pressure through Saturday with a seasonable chill in the air, which might feel rather cold to some who have gotten used to the very mild weather of the past few months.

We get back on the warm side of the high pressure area by Sunday, and then a frontal system will slowly approach from the west early  next week. A mild and unsettled period of weather will be the result for Monday-Tuesday. As we get into the colder air Wednesday, we will have to watch for a low pressure wave forming on a front that will have just passed. This may bring a chance of rain and/or snow to parts of the region around midweek. For the moment, based on trends and persistence, I’ll lean wet versus white.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 44-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 41.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 51.

MONDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 54.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain/mix. Low 35. High 42.

12:08AM

Yes, it is happening, in stages. Instead of re-explaining it, read the post by Matt Noyes which some bloggers have linked in recent updates.

For the more immediate future… Low pressure is tracking north northeastward, west of New England, sending a band of moderate to heavy rain into an unseasonably warm and humid late November air mass as the final day of the month begins. Dry air behind a cold front will put an end to the rain by dawn in most of eastern MA. It will not turn that cool behind the initial front. A secondary front or trough will pass by tonight from the west, with some clouds, and introduce slightly colder air for the first few days of December. This will be reinforced by another cold front passing by on Friday evening. This front will have little weather with it, just a few clouds.

We do warm up by Sunday and Monday ahead of the next storm system, but this time not to the levels we just saw. Another shot of chilly air arrives toward the middle of next week and this one may contain some snowflakes, though no big storm is seen at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Showers, with an area of moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder moving through from west to east especially between 1:30AM & dawn. Mild and humid. Low 55-60. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds and showers may linger at the coast and over eastern Essex County early in the morning otherwise sun becoming dominant with just some passing clouds. Temperature holding 55-60 much of the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 42.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

MONDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 42.