DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Bringing the short term into better focus leads to a couple detail adjustments on the forecast for today and Friday, and a minor re-tweak for the weekend (don’t worry, the latter is good). First, we still have a smoke plume wavering around the Northeast, via Canada, like a semi-transparent ribbon about 5,000 to 10,000 feet overhead, and that will continue to filter the sun that we do get today and Friday, but unlike the last couple days, we’ll also be contending with more actual cloudiness at times, and a couple shower and slight thunderstorm chances as a series of disturbances pass by. Timing on those: This afternoon, Friday morning, and late-day on Friday. Today-Friday will be quite warm – another preview of summer for our area. Although we will still have one more frontal boundary to cross the region later on Saturday, the latest trends in reliable guidance has been to largely evacuate moisture from the region that would help to fuel any showers, so other than the potential for a morning shower favoring the South Coast on Saturday, I’m keeping the forecast for that day dry. While Saturday’s high temperatures will be down a peg or two from the previous two days, it will still be a warm one. Behind that front, a northerly breeze between eastern Canadian low pressure and Great Lakes high pressure will bring pleasant air to the region for Mother’s Day on Sunday. A switch to a westerly wind should trigger a Monday warm-up. Different from my previous thinking is that I expect dry weather that day as moisture from the west that I had thought might get here, likely will not.

TODAY: Smoke aloft. Filtered sun through midday, more clouds afternoon and a possible shower and remote chance of a thunderstorm mid afternoon to evening northwest to southeast. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds exit evening but return overnight. Smoke aloft remains. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late day. Additional smoke aloft. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Potential smoke aloft early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Expecting a ridge to our west, and a trough in the Northeast, but not a deep one, and its axis a bit to the east. This pattern would feature a series of frontal passages with minimal shower chances, a mostly dry regime, and a few temperature swings. Should start this period with a cool-down, and end it with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Shower chance early period, rain chance mid to late period, but low confidence forecast. Temperature trend may be down as well.

Additional wildfire smoke from Canada will give the sky a hazy look at times over the next few days. We had a one-day cool-down from a flow off the ocean yesterday, but that switches back to a regional land breeze today with a warm-up, and this continues into late week but with an opportunity from a shower as a warm front goes by later Thursday / Thursday night, and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm both Friday evening and Saturday afternoon from a pair of cold fronts that have to cross the region. This will lead to a fair and slightly cooler (but nice) Sunday, courtesy Canadian high pressure.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny / smoke aloft. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Brief shower chance around May 21-22 with passing trough. Rain chance increases at the end of the period with a potential approaching/arriving low pressure area.

Upper level winds brought a significant smoke plume across our sky from west central Canadian wildfires yesterday, and this continues into today, putting a veil over the sun once again in an otherwise mainly sunny sky. Some high clouds are crossing the sky as well this morning in association with convective activity passing to the southwest of New England, but these will exit at midday leaving us with just the smoke filter and eventually a few fair-weather flat cumulus clouds that may develop this afternoon too. An onshore wind in the wake of a back-door cold front will make today the coolest of this week, but a return to a land breeze tomorrow and the departure of the smoke plume will bring brighter sun and a warm-up. Thursday-Friday will be even warmer days but will not match exactly, weather-wise. High pressure keeps the weather settled with sun Thursday. Clouds and a stray shower or even a thunderstorm may cross the region, favoring western and northern areas, with a warm front Thursday night. This brings in slightly higher humidity for Friday, which those sensitive to may notice, and the approach of a cold front that day means more clouds and eventually the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms in the region, but at this point it does look like most of that day will be rain-free. Saturday, a west northwest air flow downslopping off the hills and mountains will keep us fairly warm and it will be a day with a fair amount of sun as well – a very nice start to the second weekend of May.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun & a few clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke clears out. Lows 35-40 inland with coolest in valley areas, 40-45 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Fair weather hangs on to finish off the weekend on May 14. Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern looks dry and somewhat seasonable though with variable temperatures. A weak trough in the region does bring the opportunity for a few showers here and there but no strong indications of bigger rain events.

This week, we don’t have to contend with any slow moving upper level lows. It’s a pretty straightforward outlook without much opportunity for complication, so let’s go over it. Today, a disturbance departing the region first thing has some clouds over mainly southeastern areas but these will exit for a mainly sunny sky and pleasantly mild to warm temperatures. Tonight, a back door cold front moves into and across the region from northwest to southwest, but with only a few clouds and no rain whatsoever. This sets up a fair but cooler Tuesday and early Wednesday, but before Wednesday is over, we’ll already start to see a moderating trend beginning. High pressure slides offshore Thursday and Friday with a solid warm-up. Thursday features sun, but by Friday some more clouds enter the picture, along with the increased chance for showers (perhaps thunderstorms) – representing the one and only shot at precipitation during this week – as a cold front approaches from the west. A hint of higher humidity on Friday ahead of that front will give the day a bit of a summer-preview feel in comparison to the lower humidity days that precede it.

TODAY: Early clouds, then dominant sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 39-46, coolest interior low elevations. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Early call on the May 13-14 weekend looks great with high pressure in control, then an episode or two of unsettled weather early to middle of following week as some disturbances move through from west to east. Temperatures near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry during this period with variable temperatures, often dependent on wind direction.

I’m writing a quick update for you today, and then I want you to get outside (f you can) and enjoy the beautiful weather today that we have in a nice mid spring pattern. A northwesterly flow today means dry and warm weather, with plenty of sun to start though clouds arrive later ahead of an approaching disturbance. Unlike the low of last week that hung around for 5 days, this one will be around for about 5 hours (ok maybe a tiny bit longer haha), with clouds and a shower threat tonight, mainly late night, before it departs and nice weather returns to us on Monday with continued warm weather. Dry weather will continue into the middle of the coming week, but we’ll bump the temperature down for Tuesday into Wednesday behind a back-door cold front and with a push of high pressure from eastern Canada, before we recover on Thursday, albeit with some clouds announcing the warmth’s return.

TODAY: Bright sun into afternoon, dimming and fading later in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late evening and overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early morning, then clearing. Highs 69-76. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Look for more clouds and a shower chance early in the period with a disturbance and frontal boundary on May 12, then high pressure bringing another nice weekend to the region for May 13-14, followed by the next disturbance with a chance of unsettled weather early the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry during this period with variable temperatures, often dependent on wind direction.

We’ve served our time in the dank tank, and now that the upper low pressure area has departed, we’re in for a nice stretch of weather. But there are still changes to talk about in the forecast going forward, even in this 5-day period. This weekend, it’s a dry northwesterly air flow in control, and I’ve had to make a slight adjustment to the sky forecast regarding Sunday. Today’s idea is the same: bright sun, but during the day it will have to share the sky with fair-weather clouds that develop in response to its heating of the ground and those thermal rising into the still-cold air above our heads. But these clouds will not be abundant enough to turn it mostly cloudy, or to release any showers, so we’re good really – just more of a decorative sky resulting. On yesterday’s update I thought we’d see wall-to-wall sunshine on Sunday, but I no longer feel this way. We start sunny after today’s clouds dissipate / move away tonight. But we’ll see an increase in high and some mid level clouds during the afternoon into the evening in response to convective blow-off with a disturbance moving southeastward out of the Great Lakes. While its remnant showers will miss the region, we’ll have to deal with those clouds dimming and possibly blotting out the sun before day’s end, but they peak at night, and decrease again Monday as the disturbance moves away. So look for that day to turn out brighter again. We’ll also see milder temperatures evolve during the next few days too – a nice change from the springtime chill we’ve had during much of the week. Speaking of chill though, a back-door front, pushed by Canadian high pressure, will cool us down toward the middle of next week, but it looks like it will remain dry, with no rain associated with the back door cold front that introduces the cooler air mass.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a mix of clouds and sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Bright sun to start, then filtered to fading sun by later in the day. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds with dimmed sun becoming brighter. Highs 68-75, but turning cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry, but there may be a few showers around toward mid period. Temperatures near to above normal during this time, but may be a day or two that vary more significant from coast to inland.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Watch for another high to the north and possible push of cooler air early in the period, then a transition back toward milder with unsettled weather in between.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

One more unsettled day courtesy upper level low pressure which has taken many days to move across the region – basically all week. But we’ll see improvement beginning this afternoon in the form of breaks in the clouds after a mainly cloudy, damp morning. More complete clearing takes place tonight and sets us up for a great weekend with a dry, milder northwesterly air flow. We’ll still have some fair weather clouds popping up due to lingering chilly air aloft on Saturday, but Sunday will feature full sunshine. Nice weather continues into the start of next week as well. We’ll remain mild Monday but you’ll notice some high cloudiness from a disturbance setting set to pass by to our south. The flow in the atmosphere will allow Canadian high pressure to send a back-door cold front through the region to cool us down somewhat on Tuesday, but my early idea about this air mass change is that it will just be accompanied by some clouds and no rain.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with patchy drizzle and a possible shower. Clouds break for sun at times this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 70-77 except 60s some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

Canadian high pressure keeps it cool with a flow off the ocean to start the period, but this time with generally fair weather. Some unsettled weather follows as we transition back toward a westerly flow and eventually a warm-up with fair weather returning before the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Watch for another high to the north and possible push of cooler air early in the period, then a transition back toward milder with unsettled weather in between.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Two more days until the upper low leaves us alone – for now (keep the last 2-word phrase of that sentence in mind for beyond the 5-day period). Today, it’s the coolest of the lot, surface low to the southeast, upper low still overhead, northeasterly air flow at the surface, grey sky, patchy drizzle, a few showers, and below normal temperatures – as you’ve heard me say recently: in the dank tank! But not long from now improvement will begin. Friday, both upper and surface low pressure areas will be to the east of the region, pulling away, and while the sky will still be filled with plenty of clouds, drier air working in from the north will start to break them up with the sun chance going up as we move through the day, especially by late day. We’ll be rid of the wet weather and we will be subtly milder (or less chilly). Our weekend as well as Monday look fabulous with dry air dominating the weather as the low will be far offshore by then and high pressure will build in from the west. There will still be enough cold air aloft for diurnal fair weather clouds to pop up Saturday, so I’m not expecting a totally sunny day, but the two days that follow it should feature basically unlimited sunshine. A nice warming trend will take place during this time as well.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a chance of passing showers. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a slight chance of a shower. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 61-68. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77 except 60s some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

Our old pal, the upper level low pressure area (yes the one over us now) may retrograde – aka move westward – far enough to push a back door frontal boundary into our area before the middle of next week, thwarting the warm-up and altering the flow so that a series of disturbances approaching from the west during the period are shunted just to the south, but still close enough for some episodic unsettled weather. Will sort out the details as we get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Low confidence forecast here given the uncertainty in the period preceding it. Going drier/milder to start, then a cooling trend to return, but an overall mostly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Upper level low pressure holds control over our weather for 3 more days. As it spins its way east southeast across the region, a new surface low will form to our south and slide northeastward to well east of the region between tonight and early Friday. This will help turn our wind more from the east and eventually northeast, then north as the system moves away. Occasional shower chances continue, with the window of highest opportunity being from this afternoon through midday Thursday. Additional diurnal showers can develop Friday with more sun’s heating. Any showers that are born of tall enough clouds can contain graupel or small hail due to the much colder air aloft and the size of the precipitation not allowing it to melt back to rain before reaching the ground. This weekend we will be rid of the upper low with high pressure building in. This will give us dry weather with a milder trend, especially away from the coast. Enough cool air lingers aloft for the development of fair weather clouds on Saturday but these should be largely absent from Sunday’s sky.

TODAY: Partly sunny, then mostly cloudy. Scattered showers this afternoon, some of which can be mixed with graupel or small hail. Drizzle may develop in some eastern coastal areas by evening. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

High pressure brings dry and milder weather early to mid portion of this period, then an approaching trough and frontal system from the west brings back the chance of unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Drier pattern returns with a period of more seasonable temperatures that then trend cooler again later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Upper level low pressure continues to plague the region with unsettled weather through midweek, lingering into late week, but exiting in time for the weekend. The center of broad upper level low pressure will gradually wheel its way east southeast. A decent spoke of energy rotating around it today, along with weaker surface low pressure passing to our west, will produce showery weather at times, along with a slight thunderstorm chance, but it will be on the mild side, except the South Coast where a southerly air flow is directly onshore. As the upper low continues east southeast, a new surface low will form south of New England later Wednesday and Thursday, close enough for a change of wind direction from south to east, then east to north during the course of these 2 days, with additional shower episodes. Once we get to Friday, we’ll be in a northerly surface flow with both surface and upper lows to our east, but still with enough instability around to ignite a few more showers during the day. By Saturday, we’re dry with just some lingering diurnal cloud development, milder inland and still cool near the coast, especially eastern coastal areas. But it does look like a much nicer regime once we reach the weekend – good timing.

TODAY: Limited sun, dominant clouds. Occasional showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Heavier showers may contain graupel or hail. Highs 55-60 South Coast, 61-66 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, possibly mixed with graupel and/or small hail. Areas of drizzle especially in eastern coastal areas later in the day. Highs 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

High pressure brings dry and milder weather early to mid portion of this period, then an approaching trough and frontal system from the west brings back the chance of unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

A little different outlook than yesterday – slower pattern evolution – with the potential for lingering unsettled weather during the first part of the period before another dry, mild interlude.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

May’s here, and this week our pattern will be dominated by the eastern low pressure area in an upper level omega-style blocking pattern. For a more complete picture, the other upper low is over California and a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Plains, and very little movement of the large scale features, only an eastward drift, will take place as we move through the next 5 days. This will result in a slow transition in our weather during this time, not a situation where every day has the same weather. Today, we’ll be in a southwesterly wind flow as surface low pressure that went by our region last night wheels northwestward and gets pulled underneath the upper low that’s initially centered in the Great Lakes region. That feature wobbles its way east southeastward Tuesday through midweek, moving overhead Wednesday then finally off to the south and east of the region by Thursday and Friday. But by that I don’t mean “away” yet. That just gradually shifts our wind from south and west initially to more easterly by later Wednesday and the northeast to north Thursday and Friday. As was previously prognosticated, I still think Thursday will be our coolest day. Backing up a bit for a sensible weather summary – today starts with abundant clouds and some last lingering light showers, especially northwest of Boston, then sun takes over, but more clouds pop up and a stray shower may visit western reaches of the forecast area later in the day. Tuesday, more widespread showers move in from the west and will be around off and on during the day. We may see a break and some clearing early Wednesday before another batch of clouds and possible showers, even some drizzle as we see the wind transition to more of an onshore (easterly) by later in the day. Any showers later Tuesday and Wednesday can contain graupel or small hail due to the cold air aloft. Additional showers and drizzle can be around Thursday, the coolest day with a broad northeasterly air flow, and still some additional pop up showers can occur on Friday as well as we’re still well within the influence of the upper low, even though it’s starting to move further away by then.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few showers mainly northwest of Boston from north central MA into southwestern and south central NH, then a sunnier interval before more clouds pop up during the afternoon hours, and a stray shower is again possible in the CT Valley to Monadnock region later in the day. Highs 60-67 except 50s South Coast. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A quick shower possible early in southwestern NH. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, some of which may contain graupel and/or small hail by later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, possibly mixed with graupel and/or small hail. Areas of drizzle especially in eastern coastal areas later in the day. Highs 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

May 6-7 weekend looks dry with a slight warming trend, but still coolest at the coast, as upper level low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure builds to the north of the region. High pressure brings dry weather mid period before the next disturbance brings back the chance of unsettled weather by the end of it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Overall pattern looks dry and somewhat milder for this period of time into the middle of the month but may start out with some unsettled weather at first.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

On this final day of April 2023 we will be overcast and have a wet Sunday, first impacted by drizzle and lingering showers in association with the remains of a low pressure area that is dissipating just to our south. As this happens, another stronger low will head northward from the Carolinas, its center passing just west of our area tonight, throwing a more solid ribbon of showers and embedded thunderstorms our way, along with a gusty wind. This system will merge with another low in the Great Lakes as it wheels around under an upper low to start the week, and the entire system will then move slowly eastward through the middle of the week. After a mild, breezy Monday, additional unsettled weather comes in with the large, slow-moving system later Tuesday and lingers through the middle of the week, with a cooling trend.

TODAY: Overcast. Showers likely. Areas of fog/drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows 48-55 evening then rising slightly overnight. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH inland with gusts 25-35 MPH, 15-25 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to SW overnight.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

Stronger indications of a stretch of drier weather after a chance of a shower at the start of the period and maybe another shot late in the period with one departing trough and one approaching disturbance. In between, high pressure dominates with fair weather, a warming trend, but cooler in coastal areas most of the days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

Continued indications of a drier, and seasonable to mild pattern heading into the middle of May.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

An upper level low pressure will impact our weather during this entire 5-day period, with 3 associated surface lows helping to determine day-to-day weather during this time. The upper level feature is broad and will be making an initial trip to the northeast into the Great Lakes and then a drift to the east into the Northeast during this time period. Surface low # 1 sits off the Delmarva this morning and is in the process of weakening and dissipating, but has a pretty decent ribbon of moisture / rainfall with it. However, there is some very dry air at mid levels holding tough in response to high pressure located to our northeast, and that will keep the initial rain at bay over a good portion of the region for much of the day, with only remnant patches of showers making it into southern and western portions of the WHW forecast area at times during most of the daylight hours, finally getting into more of the region this evening and tonight as the initial low finishes to dissipate. But once that moisture is in here, it will continue to produce showers while the lower levels moisten up and areas of drizzle and patchy fog evolve as well. This sets up a soggy Sunday with at least drizzle much of the time, and occasional showers continuing. Surface low # 2 to impact us is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and will be moving rapidly north northeastward up the Appalachian Mountains, passing just west of New England Sunday night and very early Monday. This system will have a more extensive area of moisture with it and will produce widespread showers, some of them heavy, and possible thunderstorms, with the bulk of this activity coming through from south to north during Sunday evening (6 p.m. to midnight window). A dry slot will then work in from the south overnight and be with us on Monday, with fair weather despite some variable cloud cover, and mild air on a southwesterly wind as low # 2 lifts northward and away. Finally, surface low # 3, stacked under the upper low in the Great Lakes region, will move eastward and approach the on Tuesday, bringing showers back from west to east, especially during the afternoon and evening based on current timing. Wednesday’s forecast still hinges on the movement of both the upper level low and surface low # 3, and I expect both to be centered right over our area with lots of clouds and pop up showers, with sun:cloud and dry:rain ratios to be determined.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Light rain possible CT, RI, central MA, and southwestern NH at times, but favoring end-of-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Showers likely. Areas of fog/drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Showers likely. Areas of fog/drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas by later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows 48-55 evening then rising slightly overnight. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH inland with gusts 25-35 MPH, 15-25 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to SW overnight.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure lingers with additional showers possible May 4. Indications that blocking may be strong enough to keep the next low pressure area to the southwest and south and high pressure to the north keeps it dry, but on the cooler side, next weekend into early the following week, but low confidence in this forecast at the moment and will monitor guidance trends.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

Again low confidence but indications of drier weather overall, and eventually a warming trend potential as well.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

A clearing sky and light wind allowed it to chill off significantly overnight, but with moisture lingering in the air from previous rain showers, and not a strong delivery of dry air areas of fog formed, especially in Boston’s northern suburbs, southeastern MA, and valley, swamp, and bog areas. This fog will burn off and sunshine will dominate, filtered at times by some advancing high clouds today – so a nice day overall. But the nice weather is short-lived, because our next long-lasting bout of springtime unsettled weather is on the way and will arrive in 2 stages this weekend. An initial weakening low will approach and get shunted to the south with a weakening shield of rain struggling to get into the region Saturday, being held off until mostly late-day and nighttime, lingering into Sunday as areas of light rain, drizzle, and some resultant fog. A stronger low will be heading northeastward and send a swath of heavier rain and shower activity into the region later Sunday and Sunday night. As this low wraps up and moves into southeastern Canada Monday via the eastern Great Lakes and northern Appalachians, it will send drier air in so that Monday after possibly starting wet, will feature a sun/cloud mix, a gusty wind, but milder air. By Tuesday, upper level low will drift into the region (similar to the recent occurrence), and we’ll end up cooler with an additional shower threat.

TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning, otherwise sun, filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: High clouds increase. Lows 36-43. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds thicken. Light rain possible CT, RI, central MA, and southwestern NH later in the day. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures generally 45-52. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperature rise slowly into 50s. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially early in the day. Highs 60-67, coolest South Coast. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 3-7)

Upper level low pressure lingers with additional showers possible May 3-4. Next low pressure area moves in during mid to late period with additional unsettled weather. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure trough dominates the pattern but with a trend to the east of this feature we should end up drier. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

The final disturbance to impact our region as it rotates around an upper level low pressure area will do so today with lots of clouds and a shower threat, and then the system finally makes its exit to the east by tonight. High pressure builds in for Friday giving our region a very nice spring day. A complex low pressure system then arrives for the weekend, but it will be slow to do so with high pressure hanging on and holding the rain from the initial system at bay for a good part of Saturday. The low center from this system will be weakening and eventually be pushed eastward, just to our south, on Saturday night as its lingering rain shield finally moves in. We’ll have to wait for a second low, this one stronger, to wheel its way up the Appalachian Mountains and into the eastern Great Lakes later Sunday for a more solid surge of showery rain in the region. This system will then move into southeastern Canada by Monday, but as its broad upper level low pressure circulation moves into and over our region, there can still be showers despite some drier air working in.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with limited sunshine. Chance of showers, especially midday to mid afternoon. Highs 51-58, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable, mainly SE to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds arrive. Lows 36-43. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun to start, thicker clouds follow. Light rain may reach eastern CT and central MA by late-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures generally 45-52. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperature rise slowly into 50s. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially early in the day. Highs 60-67, coolest South Coast. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)

Once again our weather pattern will feature upper level low pressure in the region with near to below normal temperatures and occasional chances for showers, but rain-free the majority of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)

Still indications of the mean trough position lingering in the Northeast but trending slightly east with time. This translates into no big warm-ups, but overall dry weather and limited rain chances.