C-19 Chat Post – April 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)

The large scale weather pattern features a typical springtime “omega block” (a configuration of low pressure / high pressure / low pressure from west to east that resembles the Greek letter omega as plotted on a weather map). Here in southeastern New England we find ourselves on the western side of the easternmost trough to start this week, and the corresponding surface low pressure area is centered south of Nova Scotia and will move southward into the waters east of New England today before turning east and moving away during Tuesday. The circulation with this storm system is quite large and has been bringing rain and snow to Maine since yesterday, continuing up there for a while today while down in southern New England only a few patches of light rainfall may make it near the coast and over Cape Cod before pulling away Tuesday. When we get to the middle of the week, the entire configuration will shift eastward and reorganize so we found ourselves on the eastern side of the high pressure ridge. This means dry weather with mildest temperatures away from the coast, which will be influenced by the still-cold ocean water via the development of sea breezes. Abnormally dry conditions are again observed across the region, and with the lack of rain in the forecast, we’re slipping back toward drought again. Also, the dry surfaces and pre leaf-out status of vegetation leave the region very vulnerable to quick development and easy spread of brush fires, especially early this week when wind speeds will be up somewhat.

TODAY: Overcast Cape Cod with a few periods of light rain possible. Mostly cloudy southeastern NH and the balance of eastern MA. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 45-50 Cape Cod, 50-55 southeastern NH and eastern MA, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)

While there are guidance differences, the overall idea continues to support a tendency for a blocking pattern across North America on the large scale. For us here, high pressure centered at the surface to northeast of the region will try to keep low pressure from the west advancing into the region as the upper level pattern nudges eastward with the ridge moving a bit further to the east over the region while the western low pressure area in the block makes its way into the Midwest and tries to send a surface feature eastward. The leaning at this time continues to be toward drier weather with most rainfall being held to the southwest and south of the region. However an easterly flow may evolve at the surface enough to allow some low level moisture in at some point over the weekend, but it’s too soon to be sure of that. A reorganization of the block should again find our area on the dry side of it as we head toward the middle of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings. This will have to be re-evaluated as guidance often struggles with blocking patterns on the large scale.

C-19 Chat Post – April 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)

A happy Easter to all who are celebrating it today! Despite a cold start, it will be a nice day under a small extension of Canadian high pressure. Blocking in the atmosphere will be strongest the next couple of days before some weakening of the block takes place. This pattern evolution will send a large low pressure circulation westward through the Canadian Maritimes today then southward passing not too far east of New England on Monday, before drifting back to the east away from this area into the middle of the week when high pressure rooted in eastern Canada noses its way back across this area. Other than a light precipitation threat Monday when the low makes its closest pass, this is a dry weather pattern once again. While the early blossoms are starting to show and will continue to increase, we’re still a little way off from full leaf-out, which means the combination of most days with sun keeping the ground very dry, fire danger will be quite high.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix with cloudiest conditions nearest the eastern coast where there may also be a few light showers of rain. Highs 45-52 eastern coastal areas, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in eastern coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)

The large scale pattern will feature the redevelopment of blocking during this period. For the first couple of days (April 9-10) it looks like high pressure, centered in eastern Canada, will extend through New England enough to keep it dry and tranquil here with cool nights and days that are mildest over the interior and cooler at the coast with sea breezes. We’ll have to keep an eye on low pressure to the southwest of the region trying to move this way from mid through late period, but despite guidance inconsistency, the trend has been to keep this area of unsettled weather pushed further to the south and while we end up with more cloudiness we would not end up with that much precipitatoin. Will watch these trends in guidance and the overall evolution of the pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – April 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)

A large low pressure circulation cut off from the main jet stream will be the primary driver of our weather during the next 5 days, but its influence, while keeping us on the cooler side, will be to keep us on the drier side too. It will drift westward through the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend, turning south into the waters east of New England by Monday before turning back to the east and drifting away toward the middle of next week. A weakening disturbance will send some clouds into the region while its in the process of being torn apart by the larger low to the east tonight into early Sunday. So while the weekend sees temperatures below to near normal, it will be dry. If we are to see any precipitation threat it would be Monday as a lobe of moisture from the offshore low gets near the coast at its closest pass.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain and/or snow showers possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)

Blocking pattern weakens enough for some additional eastward movement of features affecting our weather – first with high pressure and dry weather early in the period, then approaching low pressure and potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)

Blocking may redevelop but again we may be on the drier side of the block with limited precipitation chances and no temperature extremes.

C-19 Chat Post – April 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)

Apologies for the very late update. Today, we’ve seen the expected development of diurnal clouds due to sunshine acting on air with moisture lingering from yesterday’s rainfall and rising into cold air aloft. The atmosphere is fairly stable so these clouds are not too vertical, but rather flat and spread out, leading to a more general coverage versus scattered individual cells that can produce heavier precipitation. However they can grow thick enough to produce a few flakes of snow mainly northwest of Boston, but any flurries that occur will be insignificant. And speaking of snow, some of you may have seen snow showers late last evening as the cold air became established across there region. If you didn’t see them, or were missed, you can trust me that they were there. And that cold air is established this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s and a gusty northwesterly breeze. But we’ll see some improvement soon, tomorrow in fact, as we have plenty of sun and temperature moderation into the 50s. I’d like to say this trend is going to continue for Sunday (Easter, for those celebrating) but I can’t. A disturbance will be coming across the region, delivering clouds Saturday night into Sunday, before they decrease again, and there may be a passing rain or snow shower Easter morning. All the while, as previously mentioned, the atmosphere is developing a typical spring blocking pattern, and a large cut off low pressure area will be drifting westward through the Canadian Maritimes, close enough to put us into a northeasterly air flow early next week, keeping temperatures from warming back up too much. Most of the precipitation from that low will fair to reach our area, but some of its cloudiness will make it into the region.

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Lots of clouds – most snow South Shore & South Coast of MA, most clouds NW of Boston where a few snow flurries are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)

Large scale blocking. Low pressure to the east drifts away but high pressure will be in eastern Canada and winds will often be northeast to east in our area. Eventually another low will approach from the southwest. While the first few days of the period are likely to be mainly dry, the precipitation risk will increase later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)

Overall blocking pattern continues with high pressure to the north of the region and the tendency for low pressure to be to the south. Leaning toward the drier side overall, but can’t rule out some periods of precipitation from low pressure to the south or coastal influence from low level moisture.

C-19 Chat Post – April 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)

The new month starts off wet with an upside down temperature day. The most widespread and heaviest rain shower activity went through overnight and is gone, but some additional showers hang on as a cold front continues to move through the region, slowly at first, then a bit more quickly as an area of low pressure pulls away from the region and yanks the front offshore. This will introduce a cold air mass which will be felt in force tonight and Friday as we get a gusty northwesterly air flow. Some clearing takes place tonight but clouds may fill back in on Friday due to solar heating of the ground interacting with cold air aloft. Saturday will be the pick of the next 5 days, sunniest and least chilly. Saturday night and Sunday, a disturbance will return some clouds and cooler air to the region. All the while, the atmosphere will see a blocking pattern evolving and by Monday, low pressure from the Canadian Maritimes will head westward and bring a chilly northerly air flow and lots of clouds, and possibly some precipitation (not likely a lot) to the region.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with lingering rain showers. Mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun possible afternoon and only a slight chance of a rain shower. Highs 45-52 except 52-59 east I-95 before falling into the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a very light rain or snow shower possible southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partial clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partial sun morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in the morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)

Large scale blocking pattern continues with low pressure nearby, but positioned that we’re on the drier side with no temperature extremes (cool days, nights that are not too cold). A couple bouts of unsettled weather are possible but no major precipitation events.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)

Reorganizing blocking – one low pulls away to the east, new low arrives from the west and takes up residence. This doesn’t mean rainy weather for days, just a tendency for unsettled weather at times and no big temperature extremes. Plenty of fine-tuning to do on this forecast.

Effective immediately! Woods Hill Weather will cease operations permanently. This site will be replaced by AccuWeather’s 2 month daily forecast. Just go to their web page and enter your location. Who needs boring discussions anyway?

Oh yes, Happy April 1st! 😉

C-19 Chat Post – April 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 -APRIL 4)

The last day of March is likely to be warmer than the first 4 days of April. That’s spring in New England – you know how it goes. We’ll be in a mild southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front today and we’ll see a lot more cloudiness than we saw the last couple days, but other than the cooling influence a southerly wind has along the South Coast, many areas will push or exceed 60 today. We’ll start to see some isolated to scattered rain shower activity moving into the region, mostly west of Boston, during this afternoon, and as low pressure coming out of the southern US links up with the front and moves up along it, the shower activity will become numerous to widespread during tonight and into Thursday morning. Now it’s pretty apparent that the end of the precipitation will come before the arrival of air cold enough to flip it to snow in the WHW forecast area, with rain showers lingering in the region at least through midday and maybe one more surge sometime in the early or mid afternoon before we say bye to that. As the cold air comes in at night, a brief snow flurry may occur mainly north of Boston, otherwise expect dry and colder weather Thursday night and Friday, and while we see some sun for a time on Friday, very cold air aloft will likely allow for diurnal cloud development filling the sky in again, so sun may become quite limited that day. An area of high pressure slides just to the south of New England Saturday, which will be a milder day with more sun, but by late-day or evening more clouds will arrive ahead of another disturbance from the northwest, and a cold front associated with this disturbance will bring cooler weather back to the region for Sunday, which right now looks unsettled to start with a few showers of rain and even mix/snow, though insignificant, and then mainly dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sun this morning and lingering longest Cape Cod. Isolated rain showers mainly well west and northwest of Boston this afternoon. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers in the evening. Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers overnight. Lows 49-56. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with widespread to numerous rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers ending southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 51-58 morning, then falling into the 40s in the afternoon. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a very light rain or snow shower possible southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Partial clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partial sun morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in the morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

The large scale pattern will feature a block with a broad low pressure area retrograding through the Canadian Maritimes, keep this area on the cooler side but not too far from normal due to days that are cool but nights that the temperature doesn’t fall too much. At least the early part of the period may feature some unsettled weather do to the position of the aforementioned low pressure area, followed by mostly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

The tendency may be for the block to re-organize itself, with one low pulling away to be replaced by another one, first coming from the west before slowing down. This is not a high confidence outlook and is a mix of guidance and climatology. Not expecting this to turn into a very wet pattern, though it may be unsettled with a lack of temperature extremes.

C-19 Chat Post – March 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 -APRIL 3)

This next-to-last day of March will be a nice one, courtesy an area of high pressure. And even though the final day of the month is going to be cloudier, it will be milder, and really not that bad, as it looks like most of the rainfall from an approaching frontal system / low pressure area will hold off until evening and nighttime. This is the system that raised the question of baseball or no baseball at Fenway on Thursday April 1, and whether or not the rain may end mixed with a bit of wet snow or leave behind a few showers or flurries. Not 100% sure on either of those yet, and the forecast is basically the same as yesterday’s was at this point. It will turn quite cool for the first couple days of April – that much we do know for sure. High pressure moves over or even just south of the region allowing moderation by the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 60-67 except 50s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Lows 46-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers ending during the morning, possibly mixed with snow. Temperatures steady 46-53 early then falling to the upper 30s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Large scale blocking pattern. The overall setup is one that should keep us on the drier side with no major storminess having direct impact on our region. Temperatures are likely to trend cooler during April 4-6 but may briefly moderate around April 7 or 8 depending on what side of a boundary we sit on.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

Larger scale blocking pattern may keep it on the cooler side of normal but with limited unsettled weather as we may remain in a drier part of the block. Hints that that block may weaken or try to reset later in the period and it may turn more unsettled at that time – but details that far out aren’t going to be known.