DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

The overall pattern is a little wetter (and a bit warmer) than we’d seen for a while. The former is a step in the right direction in terms of slowing the progress of drought expansion in the region, so we’ll take what we can get. Ironically I mention a warmer pattern when today is going to be a fair number of degrees cooler than yesterday was across the region, but my words take into account the overall pattern, which features fewer Canadian cool shots for a while, rather than the comparison between 2 consecutive days. The warmth of yesterday is replaced by a cooler maritime air mass today behind a frontal boundary that moved slowly southward through the region late yesterday through overnight, triggering showers and even some thunderstorm activity in some locations. Today, the frontal boundary comes to a stop near or just off the South Coast, and a moist northeasterly to air flow across our region and some lift over the frontal boundary from the south and west will combine to generate some additional showers and drizzle, making today a grey, damp, cooler day overall. A more prominent low pressure area will make a northeastward run through the Northeast, passing northwest of our region Thursday through early Friday. This will drag that frontal boundary back north and northeast as a warm front Thursday, with periodic rainfall in our region, then following it up will be a cold front at night into early Friday with another round of showers and possible thunder. Current timing suggests that most of this activity will have moved through and offshore by dawn on Friday, with the daytime hours featuring a sun/cloud mix and just a low chance of an additional pop up shower. There also isn’t all that much cool air behind this particular “cold front” so look for generally above normal temperatures to dominate on Friday, and into the weekend as well which looks quite nice as high pressure builds in Saturday and tries to hang around on Sunday. In the previous update, I mentioned a shower chance on Sunday due to a passing trough, and while this disturbance is still likely to pass by, the moisture will be lacking for it to produce much more than some passing clouds, so currently I have removed the shower chance from Sunday’s forecast. Meanwhile, the tropics have gotten more active, and there are two potential systems in the western Atlantic, one of which is close enough to have a possible impact, eventually, on a portion of the US East Coast. In the comments section below, I am going to share a tropical blog written by colleagues.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW by late-day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

It seems we’ll be doing what we’ve often done again since late summer – watching low pressure to the south that likely stays down there with no impact up our way, and seeking systems from the west that might have a chance to bring some beneficial showers, but without much luck to that end. Overall pattern leans dry and seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

On this first full day of autumn – a taste of summer as high pressure sits offshore and a southwest wind blows, transporting in warmth and higher humidity. An approaching cold front will trigger a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations, with activity favoring areas west of Boston by late day or evening. The main batch of shower activity is expected to hold off until tonight, however. As the front slows and settles slowly southeastward through the region, then comes to a stop just to our south, cooler air moves in, but it doesn’t dry out completely, and the chance of showers persists into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure tracking northeastward will drag that front back through as a warm front during Thursday, with a batch of rain traversing our area. While any rain is beneficial at this point, this still does not look like a big soaking. However, we will find ourselves briefly in the warm sector of this storm after the warm front goes by and before the cold front arrives, at which time additional showers and a few downpours can take place later Thursday to early Friday. Some guidance has indicated the shower activity persists into Friday, while other guidance has shown the system making a quicker exit. Leaning toward the quicker exit, but will leave the shower chance in the forecast for the first part of Friday for now. I’ve also considerably bumped up my temperature forecast for Friday based on the fact this system does not have a very significant push of cool air behind it. Currently I am expecting a narrow area of high pressure to provide fair, mild weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun with patchy clouds trending to less sun with more clouds later in the day when a shower or t-storm may pop up mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 61-18. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A trough moving through from west to east may produce a passing shower on September 28 but most of that day looks dry. High pressure builds in beyond that with a stretch of fair weather expected to end September and start October. That said, there remains some uncertainty and low confidence in this forecast based on both guidance inconsistency and the potential for some tropical activity off or even near the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Low confidence outlook period continues but also continuing to lean toward a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, with a quick cooler shot or two possible.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

An area of high pressure will continue to provide fair weather today and into Tuesday as well as it shifts offshore, resulting in a slight warm-up today and a notable warm-up with increased humidity during Tuesday. This taste of summer will arrive just in time for the arrival of autumn (a little weather irony) as the equinox occurs today at 2:19 p.m. EDT, but it won’t last too long. Why? A trough, surface low, and its associated cold front will approach the region late Tuesday with a shower and thunderstorm chance, primarily north and west of Boston, with any remaining activity from this getting into the rest of the region in scattered to clustered showers form (maybe a thunderstorm) Tuesday night. The front will struggle to push completely through the region, and a weak wave of low pressure will hold cloudiness and a shower chance in the region Wednesday, which will be a much cooler day with a north to northeast breeze as the front settles to the south of the region. A small area of high pressure moving by to our north will try to clear us out briefly Wednesday night but it appears now that the next wave of low pressure that I mentioned as an uncertainty for later in the week will be moving in fairly quickly. This will return thicker clouds and a rain chance to the region on Thursday as a warm front extending from low pressure to our west moves into our region. It remains to be seen how beneficial this rainfall will be – but the potential is there to receive some much needed precipitation to battle the ongoing / expanding drought. My current idea is that the low pressure area responsible for this will pass just to our northwest, putting us briefly into the “warm sector” Thursday night into Friday, after which a cold front will move through from west to east with additional showers for about the first half of the day Friday, although I’ll be able to refine and pinpoint those details as the week goes on.

TODAY: Any early morning ground fog patches dissipate. Sunshine otherwise with a few high clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy ground fog overnight favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix – then more clouds from the west late in the day including the chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog, especially early. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Highs 61-68. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then variably cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

By the September 27-28 weekend I think that the shower activity from the trough and frontal system is finally offshore, but we’ll have to watch for one more passing shower chance a time or two from a trough swinging through the region from the west – otherwise it looks like a mostly dry, cooler weekend. High pressure should build in with dry weather thereafter, and temperatures somewhat variable but averaging close to normal. Additionally, we may be eyeing a tropical system or hybrid system of sorts off the US East Coast at some point during this period, but the very early idea is that our weather pattern would keep such a system out at sea. Always pay attention to those potentials at this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

There’s still a little uncertainty in the outlook for the early days of October, but the leaning is for drier weather to prevail with high pressure in control most of the time. There maybe a shot (or two) of chilly air from eastern Canada as well.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure overhead now shifts offshore through Tuesday. Today will feature pleasant air with slightly sub-normal temperatures, and another cool night occurs tonight with light winds. We’ll see the sun filtered by abundant high but fairly thin cloudiness today, streaming up from the south from a system well down the coast, but we won’t be hearing from that one. Fair weather continues Monday and well into Tuesday, but late Tuesday, particularly at night, and into Wednesday, a trough and frontal system from the west delivers higher humidity and our next chance of shower activity. This should push beyond the region with fair weather Thursday, though some clouds may linger, so at “day 5” I am going to lean away from complete clearing then. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds. Patchy ground fog. Lows 40-47 interior with coolest in lower elevations, 47-54 coast with mildest in urban areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Highs 65-72. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

As we come down the home stretch of September we watch for a potential wave of low pressure to deliver a period of rain to start out this period, then there’s some uncertainty regarding the September 27-28 weekend, though I lean drier with just a few potential passing showers with a trough and cold front, then drier and cooler weather more likely the last couple days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-4)

October starts with some uncertainty in its weather outlook the first several days as we’ll again see a high pressure area in eastern Canada trying to push into the northeastern US while low pressure sits to the south. While some guidance tries to push that low pressure area up here for a rain chance, I have my doubts, as we’ve seen guidance do that several times recently only to have most of those not pan out correctly. Leaning drier over wetter and also a trend to the cooler side of normal again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair and pleasantly cool weather to the region this weekend. Tonight will be a chilly one with perfect conditions for radiational cooling as the high pressure center sits right over the region. The high center shifts to the east early next week and we experience a warming trend. Eventually the next trough and frontal system makes its way our way with increased moisture, including the chance of some shower activity. Initially, my thoughts are to lean for less rainfall than models indicate as they usually over-forecast rainfall in a drought situation, which much of our region is in now. Nevertheless, we will watch for a chance of some wet weather from later Tuesday into Wednesday as it stands now, and refine the expectations in future updates. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 36-43 inland low elevations, 43-50 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Some guidance indicates additional unsettled weather in the September 25-26 time frame, and I can see reason to include them in the forecast, but with low confidence at this point. Drier weather dominates thereafter. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period overall.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Leaning drier and milder than average for end September / start October. More to say about this as things become a bit more clear.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A cold front passes by today with nothing more than a few clouds (no rain). Increased winds and lower dew points lead to elevated fire danger as well. Use caution with anything involving outdoor open flames or sparks, especially around drier brush. High pressure builds into the region tonight through Saturday with a much cooler air mass but less wind with time. High pressure settles overhead Saturday night – a perfect night for radiational cooling with some areas going below 40 for the first time in a long time and even a chance of a few patches of frost in the lowest elevations. The high pressure area keeps us fair Sunday into early next week – still cool Sunday, then an early week warm-up. By late Tuesday, clouds increase ahead of the next trough and frontal system, but as it stands now, any shower threat may be minimal and hold off until Tuesday night. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW, with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

A trough and frontal system brings a chance of showers on September 24. Cooler/drier weather follows, but watching another trough for a shower threat at some point during the September 27-28 weekend (low confidence).

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable temperatures – no extremes heading through the last couple days of September into the first few days of October.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Last week: Forecast more impact from passing low pressure at midweek / got virtually none. This week: Forecast less impact from passing low pressure at midweek / got more than expected (showers, a few thunderstorms, overcast, fog, drizzle). Mother Nature’s trickery, twice. Anyway, the unsettled weather departs today as low pressure drifts away and high pressure re-takes control of the weather, and it will be quite a mild afternoon too as we see a return of sunshine. Friday will be another very mild day with dry weather, even though a cold front passes by – not enough moisture left by then for anything more than passing clouds. The weekend features fair, cooler weather – coolest day Saturday on the eastern side of Canadian high pressure, and a chilly night as the high settles overhead, followed by a nice rebound during the day Sunday. High pressure shifts offshore with continued fair weather and a warm-up for Monday as we welcome autumn with the occurrence of the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT.

TODAY: Clouds, fog, drizzle, and a lingering shower give way to sunshine. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Warmer weather around at the start the period will be ended by a front and accompanying shower chance by September 24 which ushers in fair, cooler weather. Next system may bring additional showers by the end of the period, but that is a low confidence / uncertain outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Continuing to lean toward drier over wetter, and variable temperatures with no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A low pressure area that brought some heavy rain and areas of flooding to portions of the southern Middle Atlantic Coast will be weakening as it heads northeastward, passing southeast of our region through Thursday. While this system will provide varying amounts of cloudiness, its only rainfall offering will be in the form of a few showers near the South Coast tonight and early Thursday with no help for our ongoing and expanding drought. Friday, a sharp cold front moves through from north to south, but the timing on that front is such that it will allow Friday to be the warmest day of this week ahead of the arrival of a much cooler air mass for the weekend. The front will produce no showers, only some clouds, as it passes through. High pressure will deliver plenty of sunshine for the days of the weekend.

TODAY: Limited sun / lots of cloudiness. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH by late day Outer Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated to scattered showers South Coast overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds through midday region-wide including a morning shower chance South Coast. Increasing sun west to east afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The Autumnal Equinox signals the start of fall at 2:19 p.m. September 22. That day and the day after look fair and mild with high pressure offshore. Watching for a shower chance middle of next week with the next frontal system, followed by fair and cooler weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Leaning dry, seasonable, though some variation and maybe 1 or 2 brief shower chances during this period. Still a low confidence forecast period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

An extensive deck of stratus and fog has enveloped much of the region overnight and will persist into this morning before dissipating to reveal sunshine again, which will be filtered at times by high clouds fanning up from low pressure to our south. That low, while not having a hard impact on our region, will pass close enough during midweek to thicken up its cloud shield and toss a few showers into the region later Wednesday to earl Thursday. Unfortunately, we won’t see a widespread, beneficial rain, which is badly needed as the overall dry pattern intensifies developing / existing drought conditions. After that system exits, high pressure regains control of the weather for the remainder of Thursday, through Friday, before being replaced by another one building in from eastern Canada with a cooler air mass to start the weekend. The cold front that introduces the Canadian high will pass by with little fanfare, other than a shift of the wind.

TODAY: Fog & stratus give way to sun & high clouds. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: High clouds increase above lower elevation low cloud / fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun / lots of cloudiness. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH by late day Outer Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring areas east of I-95 and south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds and a chance of a shower – mainly south and east – to start, then breaking / decreasing clouds with more sun as the day goes on. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure shifts southward with fair weather early period and after a chilly start September 21, a moderation into early next week. Watch for a front middle of next week with maybe a shower threat, then another high pressure area moves in with more fair weather. Autumn begins with the occurrence of the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Guidance inconsistency tosses some uncertainty into the outlook for this period, but for now I lean toward no big changes to the pattern overall, maybe a bit warmer than previously, relative to normal, and a couple shower threats from passing fronts, but the details uncertain and TBD over time as we approach the end of the month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

High pressure over eastern Canada provides fair weather today into Wednesday. Later Wednesday to early Thursday our stretch of fair weather is interrupted by the passage of low pressure to our south. A cloud shield from the low will move up into the region, but like a similar set-up last week, the rain will struggle to get too far north and favors the South Coast region for impact, while much of the region likely sees no rainfall from it. High pressure re-gains control of the weather later Thursday into Friday. Sometime on Friday, expect the passage of a cold front without showers but with a wind shift.

TODAY: Fog patches low elevations early, otherwise dominant sunshine with a few high clouds. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH into midday with developing coastal sea breezes in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase. Highs 67-74. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible for a while South Coast. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds decrease. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure from Canada delivers fair, cooler weather for the September 20-21 weekend. High pressure maintains control of the weather into next week with additional dry weather dominating along with a slight temperature moderation. We will have to watch a couple low pressure systems to the west and south but they would likely struggle to have much impact. Autumn begins with the occurrence of the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Again watching areas of low pressure / moisture to the southwest but they likely struggle to make full impact here as our overall dry pattern continues toward the end of the month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

An upper level trough can trigger a few more isolated showers today, but coverage will be isolated and most of the region will be dry most of the day (if hit by one) or all of the day (if not hit by one) – so not a bad day at all other than having to pay attention to the clouds and/or radar if outside. Generally fair weather dominates much of the time Monday to Thursday with high pressure in control, except Wednesday when low pressure passing by to our southeast will likely cause considerable cloud cover and at least a chance of a little rainfall making it to the South Coast. Will watch it.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas south of MA/NH border. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with coastal area breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of light rain near the South Coast. Highs 67-74. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 44-51. Wind NE to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A Canadian cold front drops through the region between later September 19, likely with no more than an isolated shower and a notable wind shift. High pressure builds in with fair weather during the September 20-21 weekend, the last of astronomical summer. Autumnal Equinox occurs at 2:19 p.m. EDT September 22, and we welcome autumn early next week with high pressure shifting offshore, a warm up, and maybe a shower chance, but the overall pattern continues to look rather dry.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Overall pattern remains dry and fairly seasonable overall despite some temperature variation.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

An upper level trough approaches today and passes through the region Sunday, and will only be responsible for some increase in cloud cover later today while it now appears most shower activity stays north and west of the area with just a few stray late-day showers wandering into mainly Boston’s northwestern suburbs. Sunday, a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms can develop, but would be isolated to at most scattered coverage. Although any that do develop could produce small hail due to the pocket of very cold air aloft, associated with the upper trough. High pressure builds back into the region Monday through Wednesday of next week with more fair and dry weather.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog early morning in some locations. Sunniest through midday then more limited sun later in the day with an isolated shower possible northwest of Boston. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low elevation fog patches possible. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas south of MA/NH border. Highs 68-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with coastal area breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A Canadian cold front drops through the region between later September 18 and early September 19, renewing Canadian high pressure and more dry weather. Temperatures variable, but not extreme, averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Still no indications of any significant changes to the overall weather pattern heading into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure from Canada delivers a cooler air mass today with more dry weather. There’s a slight change to the weekend’s forecast with a faster timing of the approaching and passing trough of low pressure, which guidance has had a lot of trouble handling it seems. Once upon a time much guidance had this feature sauntering in Sunday night and hanging around the first half of next week. Guidance consensus now has shifted to a trough that impacts our region with a shower chance later Saturday (mainly inland / west of Boston) and again Sunday, mainly from the I-90 belt southward. Consensus at this point leads me (hopefully accurately) to lean toward this scenario, which will mean I add a late-day shower threat to the forecast Saturday and shift Sunday’s shower threat focus a bit south, but still include the chance for some small hail to occur due to the cold pool of air aloft. All in all though, not a bad weekend ahead. High pressure builds back in with fair weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches possible in low elevation locations. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated to showers possible mainly west of I-95 late in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low elevation fog patches possible. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with coastal area breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Overall pattern is dry with minor systems passing by in a northwesterly air flow making for variable temperatures, which average out close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Still no indications of any significant changes to the overall weather pattern heading into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

The basically “non-event” low pressure passage yesterday leaves behind only some lingering clouds this morning on Cape Cod with a northeasterly air flow, otherwise high pressure builds in with a fair and warmer day. Tonight, a dry cold frontal passage takes place, with some clouds only. Canadian high pressure brings fair and cooler weather Friday-Saturday. Upper level low pressure drifts in from the northwest Sunday into Monday, bringing some unsettled weather – lots of clouds and a chance of convective showers. If the system arrives quickly enough Sunday and/or hangs around long enough Monday, the aid of solar heating can help some of those showers build enough to become thunderstorms and produce small hail. The details of that system are still a little uncertain but will come into focus.

TODAY: Morning clouds Cape Cod, otherwise sunshine dominates. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches possible in low elevation locations. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches possible in low elevation locations. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations once again. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then clouds arrive / develop. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers until mid afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

A quiet battle between high pressure nearby (mainly just to north) and low pressure to the south takes place, but we’ll likely be on the fair weather side through the middle of next week. Watching to the northwest for another front to pass through late week, with perhaps the chance of a shower then. Temperatures start cool, then moderate somewhat overall, but the pattern is the type that produces chilly overnight lows and milder daytime highs.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

No big changes to the outlook here. Overall pattern looks drier over wet. Temperatures can be variable with a couple fronts passing by, but overall not too far from normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Offshore low pressure blankets our region with clouds today, but only delivers very limited wet weather. Most of the rain will fall on Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, with just a few waves of dissipating showers trying to get further west and north, but mostly unsuccessfully. There can also be a few patches of drizzle from some lower level moisture with an onshore flow. The low pulls away tonight and a clearing trend begins, and other than some lingering clouds in eastern areas early Thursday, our bright September weather returns, with a nice response by our temperature with the return of sun and a ridge of high pressure sitting atop our region. Friday, a cold front slides across the area cooling us back down again, but with continued fair weather, which lasts into the weekend. However, later in the weekend we see more clouds in responsible to the approach of an upper level low pressure system, and it may present our next shower threat as early as the end of the day or evening on Sunday if timing is quick enough.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain most likely South Coast / Cape Cod and less likely but still possible elsewhere, along with drizzle patches. Highs 63-70. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Outer Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Cloudy south and east with a little light rain or drizzle early, and breaking/thinning clouds to the west and north. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH Cape Cod, under 10 MPH elsewhere.

THURSDAY: Early clouds linger in eastern area, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 74-81 but a little cooler some coastal areas. Wind N up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches possible in low elevation locations. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches possible in low elevation locations. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations once again. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Some clouds arrive in the afternoon. Potential for showers evening or night. Highs 67-74. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Upper level low pressure brings the chance of some unsettled weather to start next week before we see fair weather return. Temperatures below normal to start, recovering to near to above normal as the week goes on.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

The overall pattern continues to look on the dry side with high pressure in general control. A couple fronts from Canada add to an up and down temperature regime. Any shower activity with frontal passages should be brief.