DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)
High pressure controls our weather today with lots of sun, a pleasant breeze at time (maybe a coastal sea breeze), low humidity, and seasonable warmth. You’ll start to notice some cloudiness appearing in the northwestern sky toward the end of the day. Remember the MCS (mesoscale convective system) that has been talked about here on the blog for days? That formed last night in the Upper Plains and began its trek eastward, which it does today moving through the Upper Great Lakes. It then takes a turn southeastward on the “ring of fire” eastern side of a high pressure ridge. This propels it, likely in a decaying but still somewhat potent state, into and across New England during the first 8 to 10 hours of Sunday. While this system looks like its greatest impact will be north and west of the WHW forecast area, a round (or two) of gusty showers and thunderstorms can occur in this area from around sunrise to late morning on Sunday. This type of a set-up, even with a weakening system, can produce areas of wind damage. Hail and frequent lightning can also occur with any remaining or re-developing stronger thunderstorm cells, so we’ll have to watch for that. Residual cloudiness in the wake of the system can limit the sun for a few extra hours, and rain-cooled air will also be present, and this will have an impact on Sunday’s high temperatures, which would have been hotter otherwise. My forecast will adjust for these limiting factors, and while by late-day it may feel hot and humid in much of the region, it will still be limited from its original potential. Monday and Tuesday we have a better upper level pattern set-up for significant heat, but a weak surface pressure gradient will allow for a pretty widespread coastal sea breeze to develop on Monday, keeping coastal communities from getting too hot, while it will be hottest inland. Tuesday, the sea breeze potential is weaker, so the region overall will see its hottest day of the stretch. A back-door cold front will put an end to the heat by Wednesday, accompanied by some clouds, but no more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm as it looks this far in advance.
TODAY: Sunshine dominates. Highs 80-87, 75-82 some coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind W to N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 61-68. Dew point approaches 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy through mid morning including scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong. Partly sunny late morning to mid afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Mostly sunny late-day. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable, mainly S 5-15 MPH early but can become strong and gusty near showers and thunderstorms, then variable to mainly N 5-15 MPH by late morning on, diminishing late in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93 inland, 78-85 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 91-98 but considerably cooler South Coast, and possibly cooler eastern coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH with an immediate coastal sea breeze potential.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, favoring inland locations. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)
June 26-27 features a broad scale but weak maritime air flow with varying amounts of clouds, a few chance for showers and thunderstorms, and mild temperatures with moderate humidity. Warmer weather in the June 28-30 period with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible but mainly dry weather. More details to come…
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)
Overall trend is upper level west to northwest flow but surface high pressure mostly dominant. While there may be a brief shower or t-storm threat a time or two, this pattern is mainly dry and seasonably warm overall.