Wednesday June 11 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

We have now reached mid June – still spring, technically, but as we move through these days more and more people start summertime activities, and this time of year often carries weather risk because we’re still technically in springtime, our most volatile season. And if you’ve had a pattern that has featured volatility / unsettled weather more than what we may typically see, well there you go. Is it any surprise we’re on the fence regarding this weekend’s weather? I will say though, I still have some optimistic thoughts about it. But before we get there, we have some other weather to talk about. Today and Thursday will feature a warmer, drier westerly air flow, with fair weather. The big issue is that this comes along with a substantial batch of high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada which will filter the sun considerably, especially Thursday. A building of high pressure to our west will tilt our air flow a bit more to the northwest on Friday, and while we’ll have some cloud patches and a little reduction in the smoke plume, it will be a mainly dry day (had showers in the forecast before, but feel they will hold off / not materialize). It will also be a little less warm on Friday. The weekend…. I’ve had some optimism in my outlook – a feeling that high pressure in eastern Canada would be a little more dominant than shown by guidance, and while the weather would be “unsettled”, we’d also have a share of nicer weather mixed in there. Today’s leaning is similar – and this finds me going for wettest weather chances favoring the early hours of Saturday, and another opportunity for some shower activity for a portion of the daytime Sunday, but with limited coverage. The pattern features high pressure to the north and a frontal boundary to the south, a focus for some moisture as disturbances move along it, but limited due to stronger high pressure to the north. There will be a lot of fine-tuning ahead for this weekend forecast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Some high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Large scale pattern dominated by the evolution of a modest middle US ridge of high pressure in a west northwest more progressive air flow over our region. A couple of disturbances can bring some unsettled weather in this pattern – currently favoring June 17 and 19, but with low confidence on timing and no details possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. Summer solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. Variable temperatures – not far from normal.

70 thoughts on “Wednesday June 11 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    So, at leasr we get a few nice days.
    So happy the big heat is staying away for now.

    I installed one AC for last week’s heat and It wasn’t working so well, so I purchased a new 8’000 btu unit that should do the job. No need to install just yet. Keep the near to below normal temperatures coming.
    85 and dry is PERFECT Summer weather.

    Played today’s Wordle. Again got it on 3rd guess. We’ll see how I continue to do. 2 games is an awfully small sample to judge how well or poorly I play this game. But so far results are encouraging.

    I am having trouble thinking of words that might fit the exposed letters. I have Been lucky so far.

    I am quite intelligent, but my vocabulary is not comensurate with my intellect. I Never liked to read much. Still don’t. I fear that will eventually do me in for this fun game.

      1. I wonder if the share feature works here so we don’t have to resort to a screen shot

        Wordle 1,453 4/6

        ⬜⬜
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    1. My wife loves Donna Summers. I like her music too. I have Sirius, it has a 70s channel and frequently, her music is featured.

      Hope you and TK are feeling better today.

    2. A related genre, funk, is a staple in my vast collection of vinyl LPs and CDs, including, Tom Browne’s Funkin’ for Jamaica (1980):
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuUy2ShGLyo&t=10s

      And The Gap Band’s Early in the Morning (1981): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aobIboK_z34&list=RDaXgSHL7efKg&index=3

      And simply the greatest funk song ever written from the one and only George Clinton of Parliament Funkadelic’s One Nation under a Groove: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WOZwwRH6XU&list=RD3WOZwwRH6XU&start_radio=1

      1. Tell me you’ve got Funkadelic ‘Maggot Brain’ too. That’s an all time right there in my LP collection.

    3. Those 2 are ok and tolerable for me, especially since they are disco. I am a die hard rock fan, period. I like an occasional country or disco tune, but rock is my staple.

  7. Feeling increasingly better, Tom. Thanks for asking. I’m doing webinars again today, as I think my voice will hold up.

  8. Mid seventies dew points down here in SRQ today. Coming back up to Warwick tonight at least I’ll have some warm weather to come back to one more swim in the 85 degree Gulf Of Mexico.

  9. On the disco thread I was a nightclub DJ for 25 years in the Providence clubs, best time of my life. I also did private parties and weddings. Also worked a full time day job. Young and full of fun.

  10. Ok, so I’m not at school today.

    I was in a car accident yesterday.

    I have a couple sore spots and a couple skin burns from the friction of the air bags deploying.

    Nothing broken. Wrist and right shin were x-rayed out of dr’s extreme due diligence.

    I can’t yet detail the incident as the other young driver is giving a different version from me, but thankfully, I have life 360 which details my every drive, so the police will have that data to look at and will support what I told them. And how we impacted clearly proves from what direction we both were coming from.

    I hope not, but I did not know that modern day airbags contain a powder on them that obviously deploy along with them. In the split seconds after they release, the car fills with the powder, but it sure comes across as smoke.

    In those split seconds, I panicked trying to reach under the airbag to get to open the door, as I thought smoke was filling the car.

    And I hope everyone wears seatbelts, it certainly also helped yesterday.

    1. Oh no, that’s horrible. Thankfully you are OK.
      Sorry to say, sounds like your vehicle is severely damaged.
      Will it be a total? Sounds like you were alone. that’s good.

    3. Hope you are feeling better soon. Also hope you can speedily resolve the paperwork headaches involved in the accident.

    4. Oh Tom. I’m glad you are all right but what a horrible experience. Wishing you the very best outcome. So glad you have 360

  12. GFS vs ECMWF in the tropics. We all know the GFS has a flaw that hasn’t been corrected for several years where it develops phantom tropical systems in the western Caribbean (it has to do with easterly flow creating vorticity off the mountains in northern South America). Here’s some quantification with numbers.

    Last year, between June 1 and November 30 (that’s 728 runs of each model), the GFS created a tropical system in the Caribbean or near Central America within the first 168 hours a total of 462 times. That’s a little more than 63% of the time. The ECMWF did the same 129 times, which is about 18 percent of the time.

    Of the 18 storms that were named last year, only 6 formed in the area mentioned.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    Sorry about your accident, Tom.
    Feel better soon, amigo!

    Brian Wilson of the The Beach Boys has passed.

  18. GFS has an extremely hot day in the long range, but as SAK’s excellent post above describes its failures with western Caribbean tropical features, that poor performance probably extends to other mid and long range features, so that temp projection is highly questionable too.

    I do see the euro had some long range warmth and peaking to see if the 12z also has it.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061100&fh=282&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061100&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s the 00z euro in the long range, hrs 282 and 306.

    1. Hopefully overdone as that would be tough for the spectators and golfers at The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, CT for the final round.

    1. Noooooooooooooooooooo! 🙁

      THAT would be worse than a series of cutters lined up for the next 6 weeks in winter. Or maybe just as bad… 😉

  21. 81+ here. I just walked down to the post office and it felt quite warm. BUT I’d take a day like this any day of the week this Summer. Just no HHH weather. Although dp here is 59 so it is bordering on being uncomfortable, even for me.

    1. Don’t know about JP but a nice breeze here in Quincy. I could take this day all summer. 🙂

  22. Tom, Hope you are ok after your car accident.

    I am wondering though, am I correct that you don’t “remember” the details? I hope that you went to a hospital to get checked out from head to toe.

    I would be curious as to what chemical that powder from the airbag is made of.

    At least it’s at the end of the school season for you with time to recover for the fall.

    Get better soon! 🙂

  23. Interesting NBA Finals stat:

    When a Finals series is tied 1-1, the winner of game #3 wins the Championship 80% of the time. Gotta like those odds.

  24. Hi all!

    Checking in. Still need a little extra resting time as the slow climb back from the upper respiratory virus continues. The only real bothersome aspect now is the intensity of the cough I have. It’s uncomfortable and robs a couple to a few hours of sleep at night. But little by little improvement rolls on. 🙂

    Tom: Sorry to hear about your accident but I am glad to hear you are OK! Cars can be replaced. Tom cannot.

    SAK: Thanks for the stats on GFS vs ECMWF with tropical creations. Very interesting stuff and great to see actual #’s put on it.

    I haven’t looked at too much since I wrote this morning, but a quick glance tells me no changes are to be made at this time.

    I also think the model forecasts of the arrival of heat may be a little too aggressive. We’ll get into that soon. Need some hydration and a bit of rest before it’s time to take care of mom’s dinner! 🙂

    On a sad note, Rest in Peace Brian Wilson. 🙁

  25. Tom, I am very sorry to hear about your car accident. Do take care.

    Saddened to hear of the passing of Sly Stone earlier this week and today, Brian Wilson. Below you’ll find a picture of Brian Wilson from 2022. Many of you will be able to guess where this is. Hint: It’s a stone’s throw from my apartment. https://x.com/BrianWilsonLive/status/1932838576955302326

    On today’s weather, I could take 90 days of this in a row. Seriously, I would then LOVE summer. It didn’t feel that humid. There was a comfortable breeze. Perfect in my book.

      1. Neither

        It is on the grass way between each direction of Commonwealth Ave, known as Commonwealth Avenue Mall.

        1. Ohhhhh darn. I know that well also. Katy Gibbs was all around that area.

          It’s been a minute. What’s the street on his left.

  27. TK, I am commiserating with you on the cough. It’s the cough from hell, especially at night. It’s much better now for me, but for days/nights on end my unit must have sounded like a TB ward. I wrote apology emails to neighbors, promising I’d cut back from 3 packs a day to 2.

    1. I detest coughs. There is no way to get away from then. Hope you both feel better soon and Tom gets another couple of days off

    2. Hah! At least you kept your sense of humor. 🙂

      I’m trying to do that. Another night up more than half of it…

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