C-19 Chat Post – April 25 2020

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)
Cool and wet pattern. That’s what we have. The short and simple of it is that a storm system brings rain to the region today, a break comes Saturday, and another storm arrives during Sunday and lasts into Monday with more wet weather, but this one comes along with enough cold air that the higher elevations of interior locations may end up seeing some snow before that one moves out of the area by Monday night. Spring snow never lasts long, should any accumulate, which is possible, but seeing it at this point in April, while certainly not unheard of, is rather rare. Another break comes on Tuesday, but don’t get used to that either…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, steadiest south of I-90, more intermittent to the north. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy coast. Partly cloudy inland. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Coastal clouds linger, more sunshine inland. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast midday and afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with sleet or snow higher interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with snow higher elevations of interior locations. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with lingering rain/drizzle, mix higher elevations interior locations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Cool and wet pattern continues with next storm system bringing a rain threat April 29-30, and once again may need to watch interior higher elevations for mix. Somewhat drier weather to start May but temperatures remain below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)
Temperatures remaining below normal overall, but a couple milder days are possible with weaker weather systems, still with a couple minor rainfall events possible.

C-19 Chat Post – April 24 2020

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 23-27)
Not really making any changes to the forecast today. Pattern is the same, cool and unsettled, but remember when you hear that, we can sneak in nice days too, and we will sneak in two of them in this 5-day period, today and Saturday. Friday and Sunday are your wettest days as a pair of low pressure areas visit the region on their eastward swing along the jet stream, and upper level low pressure will probably try to capture a portion of Sunday’s departing system and keep it going into Monday, at least in the form of drizzle and/or showers.
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 51-58, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving especially southern areas overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, steadiest/heaviest I-90 southward, lighter to the north, tapering off late day from northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 40-47. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with sleet or snow higher interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle and rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
After a dry interlude April 28, the next in a series of low pressure areas impacts the region April 29-30 with unsettled weather, mostly in the form of rain but cannot rule out interior and/or higher elevation mixed precipitation due to anomalous cold air in place. Drier weather arrives for the first couple days of May as temperatures continue to run generally below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 3-7)
Temperatures remaining below normal overall, but a couple milder days are possible with weaker weather systems, still with a couple minor rainfall events possible.

C-19 Chat Post – April 23 2020

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)
A cool and active weather pattern continues and will for the foreseeable future, and certainly overall for these next 5 days, although we sneak in a fairly nice spring day Saturday between low pressure systems that will bring some rain to the region Friday and again Sunday. Before that, a windy and chilly but dry Wednesday, and a more tranquil Thursday but increasing cloudiness ahead of Friday’s system.
TODAY: Sun, some passing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, steadiest/heaviest I-90 southward, lighter to the north, tapering off late day from northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may mix with sleet or snow interior higher elevations late-day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Low pressure departs to east but upper level low pressure lingers with scattered showers of rain/sleet/snow possible April 27. Fair April 28. Next low pressure area impact the region April 29-30 with anomalously cold air in place with rain/sleet/snow all possible. Dry weather returns May 1. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)
Milder, but temperatures still below to near normal. Somewhat drier, but a couple minor rainfall events possible.

C-19 Chat Post – April 22 2020

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)
A strong cold front will charge across southeastern New England later today bringing one or 2 bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms. At the very least, the final band should be a pretty solid one, lasting up to a couple hours in terms of rainfall, but may be accompanied by a burst strong wind and brief small hail. Isolate wind damage can occur, which could lead to a few power outages. Also where rain is heavy enough, reduced visibility and ponding of water can make travel more hazardous, so be on the look-out for these conditions if you have to be out. Once this front clears the region tonight, we’ll turn windy with the feel of late winter settling in, and as I mentioned on the previous blog, only our high late April sun angle will keep Wednesday from feeling like a winter day with a temperatures considerably below normal and a gusty wind. Also look for some fair weather clouds to pop on Wednesday due to even colder air aloft. Many times in the spring we see things slow down in the atmosphere and systems hang around for days at a time. That is not the case with the current pattern and as quickly as we lose the influence of the cold front and the windy chilly Wednesday we’ll be seeing more changes Thursday and Friday. First a warm front approaches Thursday and sends the clouds back in, but that front won’t ever make it through here as its parent low will track south of the region early Friday, spreading a shield of rain across much of the region, steadiest/heaviest to the south, before moving out late in the day and allowing a drier interlude to take place Saturday as a small area of high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with rain likely south and a chance of rain north. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)
Active pattern with low pressure areas bringing chances of rain April 26 and lingering showers April 26, repeating again April 29 and 30. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)
Pattern relaxes a little. Still a couple rain shower threats with passing disturbances. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 21 2020

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)
A cold front crossed the region from north to south quietly overnight and will result in today being a slightly cooler day than yesterday. Also, a lot of cloudiness will be in the sky as a low pressure area passes south of New England but only close enough to bring brief rain today to Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and possibly the outer part of Cape Cod before heading out into the open Atlantic. What will not largely miss the region is the strong cold front that will charge across the region late Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder, but may end on the stormy side for many, as what will probably be a solid line of showers, possibly heavy, will sweep across the area between mid afternoon and mid evening. I’ll try to have this pinned down to exact hours for tomorrow’s update. When it comes through, expect gusty winds and at least moderate to possibly heavy rain for a period of time. There may be strong enough wind gusts for some localized damage, and some hail and rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either, as this is a strong front moving into a somewhat unstable air mass with lots of cold air aloft. Behind the front it will clear quickly and turn windy and cold. The only thing that will save it from feeling like mid winter on Wednesday is the fact that it’s late April with a high sun angle. That will be a windy and chilly day with sun to start then lots of passing fair weather clouds. As high pressure builds in Wednesday night and early Thursday, it will remain quite chilly but become more tranquil as winds drop off, but already a warm front will be stretching toward the area and clouds will be on the increase Thursday. The low pressure area parenting this front will track south of the region on Friday, but probably closer than today’s system, so the idea at this time is to go for a better chance of rain for most of or all of the region, though it will still be more likely to the south.
TODAY: Thinnest clouds southern NH and northern MA with filtered sun and heavier clouds to the south with possible rain Islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 48-55, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts at times Cape Cod and Islands.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding over afternoon with showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east by later in the afternoon. Showers/storms may be heavy and contain small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers end west to east early followed by clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds forming. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight, especially southern areas. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain north. Rain likely south. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)
The pattern remains active during this period. There is a lot of divergence in medium range model guidance, which is not being taken too literally, but the general idea is that April 25 should be dry during the day but may rain at night. April 26 looks wet, with lingering instability showers April 27, a break April 28, and another chance of rain or showers by the end of the period. Fine tuning needed. Temperatures likely average below normal for the 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
A little relaxation in the pattern is possible, although don’t count on 5 dry days. Just think of it as fewer chances to see wet weather and temperatures that are a little bit closer to but still probably averaging somewhat below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 20 2020

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)
High pressure sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast exerts enough influence on southern New England for a very nice day today. That won’t last. A cold front drops through from north to south later this evening with perhaps a passing rain shower, and then a broad low pressure area passes south of New England by Monday night, spreading its cloud canopy over the region but keeping most of its rain offshore to the south. There may be some rain near the South Coast, up to I-90 at most, before it retreats and moves away. But the quick-moving pattern continues and we’ll be back to fair weather early Tuesday, and showery weather later Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches, then passes, setting up a windy and much cooler Wednesday with fair weather. By Thursday, a warm front will be approaching, and clouds will be on the increase once again.
TODAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible near the South Coast mainly afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast early. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers and a risk of a thunderstorm mid afternoon on west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)
Rain likely April 24. Rain showers possible April 26. Rain possible April 27 into April 28. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Dry end to April. Rain showers possible in the early days of May. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 19 2020

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
Storm system unfolded as expected, from the start as rain in many areas to the flip to snow in most areas to the areas expected to stay as rain, to the snowfall amounts. Meteorology over modelology. Some of the model forecasts were very poor on this event. Mid spring snow events do not behave according to model depiction of them, in general. So now this system will wind down gradually today. With April daylight, the accumulating snow is pretty much done, even though it continues to fall as of 9:00AM over a large portion of the region. But as we go through the morning and midday, the atmosphere is warming and a lot of that snow will mix with and turn to light rain/drizzle before tapering to showers and gradually ending as drier air works in behind the departing low pressure area. And as is typical of spring, tomorrow you’d never know this happened as all the snow will be long gone and we’ll have a fair and much milder day ahead of a cold front. That front will slide across the region from north to south early Monday just before a wave of low pressure passes south of the region Monday night. This low should be a miss for most of the region but can be close enough for some South Coast rainfall late Monday. Tuesday looks milder again but yet another cold front will charge toward the region bringing a rain shower risk by Tuesday night, followed by fair and cooler weather Wednesday.
TODAY: Snow (rain South Coast) turns to light rain / drizzle from south to north then tapers to showers before ending west to east later. No additional snow accumulation. Highs 45-52, occurring late day. Wind N under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
Dry April 23. Rain likely April 24. Rain showers later April 25 into April 26. Dry April 27. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Rain shower risk April 28 and possibly again by the first couple days of May. Temperatures near normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2020