7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
High pressure dominates today. The strong winds of last night are out of here and it will be a tranquil day with cold air, less wind, and sunshine, but that sun will start to fade later in the day as high cloudiness increases ahead of the next low pressure area, which will actually be 2 low pressure areas in rapid succession, the first bringing a light rain to snow event Tuesday, the second bringing a period of rain/mix ending as mix/snow showers Wednesday, at which time the wind will return, and blow significant into Thursday, delivering the coldest air mass since before astronomical winter began. In fact, it may be the coldest air since we saw way back on Thanksgiving, which was colder than Christmas. This cold air will be well established by Friday, and this time the wind may continue along with it as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. A pre-dawn period of snow west to east but favoring areas north of I-90 with a quick coating of the ground. Lows 19-26 evening then temperature rising slowly through the 20s. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow morning with a coating to 1 inch, ending as rain showers from west to east during midday and afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns west to east but may be mixed with snow southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers changing to snow showers with minor accumulation possible. Highs 38-45 morning, falling through 30s afternoon. Wind SW to W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the lower to middle 30s but fall sharply late.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 10s to middle 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Cold air will be dominant as high pressure is located over interior eastern Canada. At the same time low pressure will try to organize south of the region, and while model guidance is all over the map, the leaning is for a minor impact from a system that is never organized until its well out to sea, leaving this area with cloudiness arriving January 12 and a risk of some snow January 13. Drier but still cold weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
This overall pattern during this period is expected to be drier and colder than average but as many times noted with model guidance performing poorly beyond a few days this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

8:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
Depending on what you observe, today may be “Epiphany” a.k.a. “Theophany”, “Denha”, “Little Christmas”, or “Three Kings’ Day”. All of those are names for a Christian feast day that observes, for lack of better description, the day the 3 wise men reached Bethlehem. For football fans, today is “Wildcard Sunday”. It’s also the day of a new moon. For some, it may just be “Sunday”. In the meteorological world, it’s a “cold air advection day”. What does “advection” mean? You’ve heard me say it before, but if you are not sure, the definition is. as appears in Merriam-Webster, “the usually horizontal movement of a mass of fluid (such as air or an ocean current) also : transport (as of pollutants or plankton) by such movement”. Well, I’m not expecting any plankton today, but what we will be seeing is a colder air mass moving in from Canada, hence “cold air advection” – or in comes the cold air mass! But it doesn’t start out too cold, we will reach or exceed 40 before it falls later on. What you do need to be aware of into the mid morning hours is patchy black ice as moisture from yesterday’s rainfall that was not able to evaporate has frozen as temperatures fell to just below freezing across much of the area, making untreated surfaces somewhat slippery. As the cold air moves in today, it will be with increasing wind, and as temperatures go above freezing for a time before the full arrival of the cold, the combination of the temperature increase and wind will eradicate the patchy ice issue. The day itself, weather-wise will feature a sun/cloud mix and there may be a brief passing rain or snow shower but no precipitation of any significant impact. Tonight and Monday we get a taste of mid winter air and it will be quite cold, but with diminishing wind, which will make it easier to take. Next comes that storm system, originally and prematurely hyped as a potential significant snow producer. I hesitated in going this far given model performance of late, and for got reason. We have a minor system passing by Tuesday and a quick follow-up Wednesday. The first brings snow showers with minor accumulation, especially north and west of Boston, ending as rain showers. The second, early Wednesday, brings additional rain/snow showers, though there may be a period of steadier rain/mix for a few hours depending on the evolution of the system, which will be rather compact. Behind that comes more wind and cold, and a few snow showers may linger later Wednesday into Thursday as the atmosphere bottles up a bit and a low pressure trough deepens just offshore. Any additional storminess responding to the evolution of this trough will occur well offshore, too far east for an impact here.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible this afternoon. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts likely.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early, then clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. A quick period of pre-dawn snow may coat the ground and may produce up to 1 inch north and west of Boston. Lows 24-31. Wind light variable to S.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow showers turning to rain showers south to north before ending west to east. Little or no additional snow accumulation.
Pre-dawn snow except mix South Coast with minor accumulation. Isolated rain showers thereafter. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable late.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely morning. Variably cloudy with snow showers possible afternoon. Temperatures generally stead 30s to lower 40s. Becoming windy late-day.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Dry and cold January 11. Unsettled weekend January 12-13 with snow/mix/rain possible but still looks like a relatively minor event as 2 systems stay separate. Drier weather returns January 14-15 but it may be windy as a large ocean storm may be located southeast of New England after the 2 systems that go by during the weekend join forces in the ocean.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Low confidence forecast as we’ll be looking for a transition from the Pacific flow pattern to one that should be a little more dominated by a broad trough and more northwesterly flow. But forecasting the evolution of this pattern and its timing is very difficult at this point. The period probably starts and ends dry with a passing system of rain/mix/snow somewhere in between.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
On we go with the Pacific flow. However some modifications or adjustments will be made by the pattern over North America during the next several days which will allow building cold in Canada and pieces of it to be delivered to New England. We are not about to plunge into a pattern of persistent cold just yet, however, as a “wavy rope” jet stream off the Pacific and moving across the US prevents that for now. This pattern, despite being active, is not one that produce major storms, with the ones in this time period being of generally minor impact, like today’s wet weather event. As I said previously, the track of today’s low pressure area is one that would many times bring snowfall to much of the region, but with the lack of cold air, this will not be the case. However with rain in the vicinity already, there may be some pockets of icing in portions of central MA and southern NH where temperatures, especially in valley locations, are hovering around the freezing mark. By late in the day, however, low pressure wrapping up south of New England and dry air already pressing in from the north will cut off the precipitation in many areas to the north and west of Boston and they will dry out while a more concentrated band of moderate to briefly heavy rain may occur in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. This will not be hanging around, however, and these areas will also dry out later this evening. As that low pulls away and intensifies Sunday, and high pressure builds in from the west, the squeeze-play between the two will bring a gusty north to northwest wind and there will be just enough instability around for a few snow showers to be about as colder air moves in. As the wind settles and high pressure moves overhead we’ll find ourselves with a colder than average but more tranquil day on Monday, but we’ll already be noticing high cloudiness increasing ahead of the next system. You probably have been hearing hype about this system for several days now, as it was shown as a more significant system on model guidance previously. However, I and others have stated that model guidance often presents a fair to poor performance in a split flow jet stream pattern, and has issues with where and when to phase streams, what to do with one stream or another, among other things. The reality of this system coming late Monday night and Tuesday is that it will be a relatively minor system, but may deliver some snow, enough to slick up some roads, at a time when many people would be using them early Tuesday. And with the colder day just ahead of it, it would allow the impact of even minor snow to be a little more than what we saw in the system of last Thursday, when the ground was warmer. However, even that impact will be fleeting as milder air will work into the region during Tuesday, and we’ll likely see any snow going over to mix and rain before ending. That may not be the end of the story, however, as another batch of energy still has to translate eastward across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and will generate another low pressure area that will bring some additional rain and snow. With marginal temperatures for this system we’ll have to wait a little bit to realize the details and impacts, but it is not going to end up being a major event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may briefly freeze on some surfaces in central MA and southern NH this morning. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable this morning, NE increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod and Islands during the afternoon with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Southern NH, northern and central MA dry out with breaking clouds while overcast and rain continues early to the south and east before ending late evening. Clearing pre-dawn. A few patches of black ice may form. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, strongest MA East Coast including Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible mid afternoon on. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts likely.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early, then clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow except mix South Coast with minor accumulation. Morning mix to rain showers. Isolated rain showers afternoon. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely morning. Variably cloudy with snow showers possible afternoon. Temperatures generally stead 30s to lower 40s. Becoming windy late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Windy, cold, dry January 10. Tranquil, cold, dry January 11. Unsettled weekend January 12-13 with snow/mix/rain possible but not looking like a major storm at this point. Drier weather returns January 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
Low confidence forecast as we’ll be looking for a transition from the Pacific flow pattern to one that should be a little more dominated by a broad trough and more northwesterly flow. But forecasting the evolution of this pattern and its timing is very difficult at this point. The period probably starts and ends dry with a passing system of rain/mix/snow somewhere in between.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)
Pacific flow pattern will continue. During this period we’ll be visited by two passing storm systems moving along this fast jet stream flow, the first taking a track that would often favor snow, except there will be pretty much no cold air for the storm to work with, and it will fall as mainly rain. The second system coming along late Monday night and Tuesday will have more cold air to work with at the start, but there won’t be a whole lot to hold it in place so that system, while it may produce enough snow to have an impact at the start, will probably not stay snow from start to finish, especially across southern areas. It’s also not going to be the type of system that has a chance to draw much moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so whatever it takes with it from the Pacific and what it manages to generate from existing moisture along its path will be about it. There are still a few days to work out the details on that one.
Forecast details…
TODAY: A few low clouds Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early then calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving morning, may start as brief freezing rain interior higher elevations. Rain continuing afternoon but steadiest south of I-90 while areas to the north see more intermittent and lighter rain. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain pulling out from northwest to southeast, but may end as brief mix or snow north and west of Boston. Watch for patchy black ice overnight especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, strongest eastern coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow late night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow to mix/rain north, mix to rain south. Temperatures rising to middle 30s to middle 40s, mildest to the south.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)
Colder, windy, with snow showers possible January 9. Fair, chilly more tranquil January 10-11. Next storm system potential is the weekend of January 12-13 and although its still many days away my early impression is that it could be somewhat similar to the system expected early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
Not a whole lot of change to the pattern in this area as we watch Canada start to turn colder, which may signal a change beyond this period, but for this particular period look for a cycle similar to the 5-day period just before it.

6:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
Pacific flow has decided to dominate the pattern across the US for now, but we remain with split jet stream flow most of the time with a polar branch in southern Canada and a subtropical branch over the US. These streams are generally out of phase and send their own systems out way with no major storm formation because of the lack of phasing. Look for this pattern to go on for now, the arctic air held at bay in Canada most of the time, but also no major winter warm ups either. There are frequent passages of disturbances, one such today with spotty light snow/rain with insignificant impact this morning before it clears up, a slightly stronger system that comes along in the subtropical jet and delivers some rain Saturday as it will be milder at that time, although the bulk of that system may stay just south of the area, and a third system which will approach at the very end of the period by late Monday, having colder air to work with, bringing some risk of snow by Monday night.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy this morning with areas of light snow southern NH and northern MA with a coating of snow possible in some locations, and scattered rain/snow to the south with no snow accumulation. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH this morning, shifting to NW this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine filtered by high clouds at times. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early then calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving morning, may start as freezing rain interior higher elevations. Rain continuing afternoon but steadiest south of I-90 while areas to the north see more intermittent and lighter rain. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s morning, falling to 30s afternoon.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Low pressure expected to cut across the region with a snow to rain situation January 8 but details of the storm track are still uncertain. Further south and it’s a colder storm, further north and it’s even milder. Windy, colder, risk of snow showers behind the system January 9. Fair and more tranquil but chilly January 10. The next round of unsettled weather is possible January 11-12.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
More of the same. Unsettled weather to start the period, a shot of colder/drier weather follows, then will watch for another passing disturbance later in the period.

6:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
The 2nd day of the New Year will be tranquil though chilly as Canadian high pressure dominates the region. This high will move off to the east and a system made up of a somewhat weak link-up between the polar and subtropical jet streams will bring some snow/rain early Thursday. This system will not be fully phased until it’s well east of the region, and doesn’t have much moisture to work with, so at worst it will be bringing a minor snowfall, but timed for a morning commute. Precipitation may be in the form of rain toward the South Coast where milder air will be in place. Whatever occurs will be offshore and out of here by afternoon with dry weather returning, and this dry weather will continue through Friday, but by Saturday, another system from the subtropical jet stream will make a run at the region. Although the bulk of it may stay to the south, it should still bring some wet weather Saturday, but in the form of rain as the cold air will not be hanging around. By Sunday, this system will be offshore and departing, but much stronger, and high pressure will be approaching from the west, so we’ll see gusty wind and a return to cold weather. A few snow showers may occur due to a passing trough of low pressure in the northwesterly air flow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas then mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as mix/snow evening. Temperatures steady in 40s then fall to 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall 30s to 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Dry and cold January 7 with high pressure in control. A low pressure area brings a snow/mix/rain risk for January 8. Fair and colder January 9-10. A system may approach with some light precipitation by January 11.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Additional unsettled weather possible in the January 12-13 period with drier and seasonably cold weather by mid to late period.

7:36AM

Happy New Year to all!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
2018 will be remembered for its wet weather. It remains to be seen what 2019 will have as its highlight(s) but wind will get a head start today as we get a strong westerly wind behind our departing New Year’s Eve storm as it intensifies rapidly while moving into southeastern Canada, setting up a strong pressure gradient between it and high pressure building in from the west. At least this wind will come with relatively mild air, unlike a year ago at this time when we were dealing with extreme cold as well as wind. It will turn colder, however, first being noticed later today and moreso tonight, but not nearly to the levels of last year. A more seasonable cold will be with us for Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday’s weather dry and tranquil, governed by high pressure, followed by a weak disturbance passing by early Thursday which may bring a touch of very light or light snow to the region. A larger low pressure system, one that is a phase up of the subtropical and polar jet streams in the Midwest, will make its way here by Friday night into Saturday, and as has been the pattern with the larger systems, it will have warmed up enough for mainly rain. However, colder air trying to work in on the back side leaves us with the chance of some mix/snow before it winds down, depending on timing and storm track, later Saturday – a detail to be ironed out.
Forecast details…
TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning. Temperature fall through the 40s afternoon to the lower 40s east and upper 30s west by day’s end. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as mix/snow. Temperatures steady in 40s then fall to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
A passing snow shower possible January 6 otherwise dry and cold through January 7. Watching the threat of some mix/snow for January 8 depending on the track of a disturbance moving through the region, with fair and seasonably cold weather to follow based on current timing. Model guidance continues to perform poorly beyond a few days so use of it is limited and forecasts are not high confidence, but based on overall pattern expectation.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
A passing storm may bring rain/mix/snow around mid period with dry weather to start and end, but confidence and reasoning for this forecast period is the same as with DAYS 6-10.

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
The final day of 2018 has arrived. The the final sunshine of the year will be this morning and maybe first thing this afternoon for parts of the region before cloudiness thickens up ahead of a quick-moving storm system that is going to symbolize much of 2018 – wet weather. Actually this system has just enough cold air to work with that it may start as snow or a mix over interior southern NH and central to northeastern MA, and for a short time where snow occurs it may even look like it would be the start of a serious snowfall, but it will be very fleeting, as warmer air takes over both at the surface and aloft and everyone is rain by the time we flip the calendar from 2018 to 2019. So if you are going to be outside somewhere to celebrate, bring the rain gear. If you are near the coast, say, in Boston, leave the umbrellas at home and wear a rain coat as the wind will be on the gusty side this evening and tonight. When we get to the first dawn of 2019, clouds and a few rain showers may still be around as we’re immersed in mild air, but a quick drying process on an increasing westerly wind behind the system will make for quite a nice New Year’s Day overall, although the mild air that starts the day will be replace as the hours go by with much colder air, so be ready for a temperature drop. High pressure will build in with dry and cold air Wednesday. A northern stream disturbance will pass through the region Thursday morning and midday and may cause a little very light snow. Later Thursday and early Friday a piece of energy will travel well south of the region, but a lagging piece of energy from the southern jet stream will phase up with a piece of energy from the northern jet stream over the Midwest and create a storm system that arrives along with milder air, bringing a good chance of rain to the region by later on Friday. It’s possible this system is slow enough so that the entirety of Friday’s daylight is dry. Will tweak timing going forward.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 37-44. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Rain arrives evening southwest to northeast, may start as mix/snow interior southern NH and northeastern to central MA. Rain diminishes to scattered rain showers west to east overnight. Patchy fog. Temperatures rise slowly through the 40s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast evening, S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas overnight.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly cloudy with a lingering rain shower possible very early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning. Temperature fall through the 40s afternoon to the upper 30s east and middle 30s west by day’s end. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Rain may end as snow or snow showers during January 5. A few snow showers possible January 6. Risk of light snow or flurries later January 7 and January 8 then fair and cold January 9 as the southern jet stream retreats and the polar jet, sitting mainly north of the region, sends minor systems this way.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
Unsettled weather is most likely during the second half of the period though at this point no major storms appear likely.

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
A disturbance that had a little more punch than expected brings cloudiness and maybe a few flakes of snow to the region this morning then moves out this afternoon with sun returning. High pressure moves overhead during today and tonight with much lighter wind than we saw Saturday, and then this high moves offshore and allows a quick-moving low pressure area to bring a period of rain (which may start as a mix well north and west) to come through the region during New Year’s Eve, leaving us with a drying but mild New Year’s Day before colder air returns to the region for the second and third days of 2019.
After a complex day yesterday which featured rain, fog, and some icy spots as cold air was trapped near the ground over parts of southern NH and central MA, we are now drying out behind it all with a moderate westerly breeze today, though it starts mild and then gets colder during today and tonight and remains dry and cold but more tranquil for Sunday as high pressure builds in. But the changes will continue and as we get ready to change the calendar from 2018 to 2019 we’ll be dealing with the passage of another low pressure system, bringing mainly rain for New Year’s Eve, which is a little faster timing than I had been thinking previously. This quicker timing may lead to a much drier result for a good portion of New Year’s Day, which will be mild, before another batch of cold air arrives for the 2nd day of 2019.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with spotty light snow this morning. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind light N to light variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable to light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast, may start as brief mix well north and west of Boston. Lows 32-39 early then rising to the 40s overnight. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest Cape Cod.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
A storm system with a combination of northern and southern jet stream energy is likely to pass through the region with a snow or mix to rain situation on January 4, exiting and followed by colder and drier weather January 5, but a disturbance may bring snow showers with continued cold air January 6 followed by dry weather January 7 and the threat of the next disturbance bringing precipitation by January 8.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Drier with near to below normal temperatures January 9-11, with the next threat of unsettled weather coming by late in the period.

11:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
After a complex day yesterday which featured rain, fog, and some icy spots as cold air was trapped near the ground over parts of southern NH and central MA, we are now drying out behind it all with a moderate westerly breeze today, though it starts mild and then gets colder during today and tonight and remains dry and cold but more tranquil for Sunday as high pressure builds in. But the changes will continue and as we get ready to change the calendar from 2018 to 2019 we’ll be dealing with the passage of another low pressure system, bringing mainly rain for New Year’s Eve, which is a little faster timing than I had been thinking previously. This quicker timing may lead to a much drier result for a good portion of New Year’s Day, which will be mild, before another batch of cold air arrives for the 2nd day of 2019.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun dominates through midday then sun and passing clouds. Temperatures gradually fall, reaching the 30s by late day. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Risk of mix to rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind light S.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Breezy. Temperatures rise to 50s morning, fall to 40s afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Watching a storm system for around January 4 that should pass out to the south but it remains to be seen if it gets close enough to spread cloudiness and a snow threat into southern areas. A disturbance may bring snow showers or a period of snow around January 6. Otherwise, a colder/drier pattern evolves.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Disturbances may bring snow showers around January 8 and 10 and a larger system may bring precipitation by the end of the period. Low confidence forecast at this time.

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
Slippery spots from snow and a little freezing rain in portions of north central MA and southern NH will disappear as the temperature goes up this morning, otherwise its a wet Friday, though not an excessive rain producer this time. No changes to the weekend forecast at this time as we see it dry out, start mild, and end cold. A little unsure on the timing of the next system, which looks like mainly rain as milder air will rapidly advance back into the region New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. For now will split the difference with a forecast of it becoming wet before we lose 2018 and staying wet into the morning of the first day of the new year.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with rain likely morning and midday except early freezing rain north central MA and southwestern NH. Rain tapering off late day when clouds may break. Highs 47-54 occurring late day. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to S by late in the day.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures fall back slightly into the 40s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible early. A passing snow shower possible late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.
MONDAY (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Risk of mix to rain at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy with rain/drizzle morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Temperatures rise to the 40s to lower 50s then steady.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Earlier thinking was that we may be in a stretch of unsettled weather but current thinking is we may end up drier between split jet streams, one to the north, one to the south. Can’t rule out some unsettled weather at some point in this period, however.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
A colder and overall drier pattern but a risk of snow showers about every other day from passing polar jet stream disturbances.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)
We’re down to 5 days left of 2018, and they will present a set of changes in the weather typical of the region we live in. It starts out with a tranquil day today as high pressure overhead slides off to the east. Low pressure traveling through the Midwest will track north of England by late Friday, dragging a warm front across the region. The precipitation with this front will fall mainly as rain, although it will likely start as a period of snow and some sleet north and west of Boston where a minor accumulation is possible especially in higher elevations. The cold front from this system will cross the region early Saturday with no more than a rain shower and a mild start to the day will then be followed by falling temperatures, a gusty breeze, and perhaps a snow shower to end the day as a trough passes by. A cold Canadian high pressure area will build in for Sunday, which now looks like a dry day with any weak low passing well to the south. By the time we get to the final day of 2018, we’ll have another low pressure area approaching from the southwest, spreading cloudiness into the region. It remains to be seen if any precipitation will arrive before the clock strikes midnight, but if it did it would likely be snow. With this being a few days away, this is definitely not a high confidence forecast at this point, just something to keep an eye on.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet north and west of Boston, mix/rain elsewhere, developing pre-dawn, with a minor accumulation of 1 inch or less possible in areas that get snow. Lows 22-28 north, 28-34 south during the evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind light N to E.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning and midday. Rain tapering off late day when clouds may break. Highs 47-54 occurring late day. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to S by late in the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures fall back slightly into the 40s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible early. A passing snow shower possible late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Risk of snow late at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)
An unsettled start to 2019 with a risk of mix to rain January 1 into January 2 then a risk of mix to snow January 3 into January 4, with fair and colder weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)
A colder and overall drier pattern but a risk of snow showers about every other day from passing polar jet stream disturbances.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
Christmas Day may be over but the Christmas season goes on, with many folks on mini work vacations and still doing tours of lights displays, etc. during the course of the week between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day, so the weather remains important for planning such things. During this 5-day period there are a couple of events that may have some impact on plans. After a couple dry and seasonably cold midweek days, a low pressure area will move rapidly from the Upper Midwest to southeastern Canada Friday through early Saturday. Enough cold air at the onset of this system early Friday should allow a start as snow/sleet for at least northern and interior areas of southeastern New England, but warmer air advancing will mean that it turns out as rain for the balance of the system. A cold front will come through during Saturday, and similar to the Saturday before it, expect a day of drying weather and a mild start with a colder finish. This sets up the possibility of some snow on Sunday, with cold air in place, depending on the track of a clipper low pressure system.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 11-18. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet developing pre-dawn, except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 22-28 north, 28-34 south. Wind light N to E.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow and sleet changing to rain morning-midday. Rain showers likely afternoon-evening. Snow/sleet accumulation of a coating to 2 inches except little or no accumulation South Coast. Highs 40-46 occurring late-day. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Chance of a rain shower morning. Chance of a snow shower late-day. Temperatures rise to lower 50s early then fall through the 40s during the day, 30s early evening, into the 20s late evening.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas. Temperatures steady in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
A dry December 31 will be followed by a pattern of unsettled weather that favors rain initially and possibly mix/snow toward the end during the first few days of 2019.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
A couple systems may bring light precipitation around January 6 and 8 otherwise overall dry weather with temperatures near to below normal.

11:24AM

To all of you who celebrate, I wish you a Merry Christmas!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)
High pressure builds in for a bright and seasonably chilly Christmas Day and continues to dominate the weather through the middle of the week. A weak trough moving north to south across the region from eastern Canada on Wednesday may bring a few clouds to region. The next low pressure system will travel southwest to northeast from the Upper Midwest to southeastern Canada on Friday, a track putting New England on the warm side, and a warm front / cold front combo will bring wet weather at that time. There could be just enough cold air around at the start of the precipitation early Friday, that some areas, especially interior and higher elevations, see some snow and/or ice, but this should not be long-lasting and its impact, if it occurs, will be determined by timing. By Saturday, this system will be departing and we’ll have a blustery and drier day that starts mild and ends colder.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 11-18. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow and sleet changing to rain morning-midday. Rain showers likely afternoon-evening. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Chance of a rain shower morning. Chance of a snow shower late-day. Temperatures rise to lower 50s early then fall through the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
A clipper passing south of the region December 30 may be close enough to bring snow to at least southern areas. Dry and chilly December 31. Milder with episodes of rain January 1-3 as a boundary sets up over the region and areas of low pressure move along it.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)
Colder with a risk of mix/snow early period and again at the end of the period with dry weather in between.

8:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)
On this day before Christmas, a 2-part disturbance will bring the only chance of getting snow on the ground before Santa’s visit. We all know Santa doesn’t need snow to visit, but many people like to see it for festive reasons. Well, part 1 of the system failed mainly to dry air, but did produce a coating of snow along parts of the South Coast and nearby areas. This was an area I was concerned may have light rain instead of snow, but everything was pushed a bit further south, the air was slightly colder, and snow fell there but nothing to the north. The second part of the system is a strong upper level disturbance that will generate snow showers this afternoon and evening. Accumulations of snow will occur in bands and be on the order of a coating to 1 inch. Sometimes in a set-up such as this a localized band may over-produce, so that will be something to watch for. The favored areas for snow this afternoon and evening will be eastern MA and southern NH. By late evening, it’s all gone, the moon will be shining, and a seasonable chill will be in place, lasting through the holiday on Tuesday which will feature bright sunshine. High pressure building in from the west will continue this weather through the middle of the week. A fast-moving low pressure area will move in during Friday, but along with the arrival of milder air behind now offshore high pressure, this will bring rain to the region, not snow. Not expecting this one to be a prolific rain producer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow South Coast / Cape Cod early. Snow showers this afternoon with a coating to 1 inch possible. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable morning, N 5-15 MPH but higher gusts this afternoon.
TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Variably cloudy with snow showers eastern MA and southern NH early, a few snow showers possible in RI as well. Clearing late evening. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures rise 30s to 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Dry weather expected December 29 but delaying the cold air’s arrival so that should be an above normal temperature day as well. The remainder of the period is in question as it looks like a couple disturbances or a more organized system could affect the region with rain and/or snow. Guidance is all over the place here and the type of pattern it is doesn’t lead me to have any more confidence either so will basically punt on this today and re-evaluate for tomorrow’s update.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)
This period may start unsettled then should trend drier with temperatures near to below normal.