DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

High pressure provides us with a bright start to our Friday, but clouds streaming into the region ahead of our next storm system will filter and eventually blot out the sun as we move through the day. As yet another low pressure area heads for the Great Lakes, the synoptic set-up is rather similar to the low pressure area that impacted our region on Tuesday, but this time with just a slightly colder atmosphere – though not much colder. Redevelopment of low pressure will take place just to our south and the center of this one will move out along or just off the New England South Coast late tonight into Saturday. The precipitation shield arriving later tonight will do so as mainly snow for the region but there will be a rain/snow line probably around Cape Cod at the onset, maybe with some sleet along it as well, and that line will move from its initial point somewhat to the north, more so along the coast than over the interior, but nevertheless will do so, limiting snowfall accumulation in such a way that the distribution will be an increased snowfall gradient as you move north northwestward across the region. Steadiest precipitation will occur through Saturday morning with a midday break, but as low pressure heads seaward it will drag slightly colder air back in and a bit of a temperature drop may occur with the rain/snow line potentially collapsing back southeastward, especially Saturday afternoon. However as this happens the precipitation should become more spotty in nature, leaving us with just showers of snow, mix, and rain northwest to southeast across the region. A few additional snow showers may linger Saturday night into early Sunday as an inverted trough behind the storm swings through the region from north to south. In the wake of the system we will have dry and chilly weather with a gusty north to northwest wind for the balance of Sunday and into Monday too. Another low pressure system will move east southeast into the Northeast via the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday, bringing some rain and snow shower activity to our region, but I don’t believe this system will have much organization and impact as it will be in the process of being absorbed by a larger low pressure circulation located to the east of New England.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving west to east late evening except as mix/rain Cape Cod. Steady snow overnight, possibly heavy for a while, except rain Cape Cod and snow turning to rain South Coast and eventually MA South Shore. Lows 29-36. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH coast, some over 50 MPH especially Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast and Cape Cod to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers, except rain showers turning to snow showers to the south, during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest until mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow. Low to the east departs opening the door for a possible storm system to impact our region on the March 11-12 weekend with a more widespread precipitation potential.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region. Obviously far too soon for any attempt at detailing these potential events.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

The very active pattern goes on, but light is at the end of the tunnel (or at the end of the 5-day)! First, low pressure sliding northeastward through the Ohio Valley toward the interior Northeast will redevelop just south and southeast of New England today before moving steadily and quickly seaward. This system brings a swath of rainfall to our region with an atmosphere too mild to support snow, but surface temperatures cold enough so that some of that rain will be in the form of freezing rain from the Worcester Hills to the Monadnock region of southwestern NH – so use extra caution if traveling in those areas. Temperatures will rise above freezing in these areas around mid morning, putting an end to any icing. Rainfall exits our region later this morning and we have a drying trend from midday on, with the potential for some breaks of sun before day’s end. A sliver of high pressure brings dry weather tonight into Friday, but clouds will already be streaming in quickly on Friday ahead of our next storm. When all is said and done, this low pressure system will behave similarly to our last couple more important storm systems, with a primary low heading for the Great Lakes and redeveloping to move out just south of New England. But as has been the case all winter and even with a more recent pattern change to slightly colder, we don’t have quite the setup for just a snow event, so there will be a variety of precipitation, with most snow to the north and far less to the south where more rain will be involved. The rain-snow line is a little tricky with this, with even at this stage some significant differences in guidance, but I’m not really changing my initial idea from yesterday, which will be reflected in my snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast). Steadiest precipitation window is 12 hours – midnight Friday night to noon Saturday. As slightly colder air overtakes the region behind the storm, a period of scattered snow showers will be with us from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as an inverted trough of low pressure (basically the remains of the primary low pressure area) swings through our region from northwest to southeast. The next phase of our late winter pattern emerges Monday with low pressure to the east, high pressure to the west, and a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow.

TODAY: Overcast this morning with rain likely (some freezing rain in portions of north central MA to southwestern NH for a while early), tapering off by late morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but a few breaks of sun are possible before the end of the day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east but mixed with sleet/rain South Coast which then advances north toward I-90 overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers during the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest through at least mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow, but not immune to a disturbance or two bringing a few snow showers. Pattern may relax enough to allow the next low pressure system from the west to approach by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Return to unsettled pattern for mid March including some lingering threats of wintry precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

February hands off its active pattern to March which will carry it well over its first several days. First, a weak area of high pressure brings bright and dry weather to our region early today, but clouds will quickly move in as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west later in the day. This system will bring a period of precipitation tonight, mainly rain that may start as snow in some areas, especially in northern MA northward. It moves out quickly later this evening, but on its heels is another low center destined to pass just to our north during Thursday morning and midday. As it drags a frontal boundary through, a new low center will try forming on that, but with the system moving along, the wet weather it brings to us will be exiting during the afternoon as drier air arrives with its departure. But this break won’t be lasting all that long either as the next storm system in line will be heading our way for later Friday into the weekend. How I believe this one will play out looks somewhat similar to the last 2 larger systems we’ve had – low pressure heading for the Great Lakes but redeveloping and moving out just to the south of New England. There will be a cold high pressure in place to the north, but the temperature profile for the storm will be somewhat marginal, and the low’s track will help determine where we see frozen vs. liquid precipitation and any combination of the two. Will try to lock this in a bit more next update. Timing for the system is late Friday (likely evening precipitation onset) through Saturday morning for steadiest precipitation, then a tapering off later Saturday and occasional showers of mainly snow possible through Sunday as a trough of low pressure lingers behind the departing storm.

TODAY: Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces until mid morning! Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.,

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some evening rain, may start as snow in some areas especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain in the morning and midday, with pockets of freezing rain possible well north and west of Boston early. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix north, mix/ rain south. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow/mix north, snow/mix/rain south, steadiest in the morning. Early call snowfall potential – 4+ inches southern NH and northern MA, 2+ inches southern MA through northeastern CT and northern RI, under 2 inches South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Overall northwesterly air flow with chilly weather and a drier trend, but one or two disturbance can bring some mainly snow showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Chilly regime continues with a more important storm threat possible heading toward mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

A minor to moderate winter storm is in progress and will continue most of the day today on this final day of February. Its greatest impact in terms of snowfall takes place southwest and west of Boston where it snowed longest during dark hours, and also heaviest as the initial band of snow was strongest – starting to weaken and break up gradually while heading northeastward as the system producing it weakens gradually and gives way to a new low to the south. That low will head eastward and keep the precipitation going for much of the day, albeit somewhat limited by daylight and lack of intensity, but we’ll continue to slowly add to the accumulation as the day goes on bringing the region generally into the predicted ranges, again favoring the lower sides of those ranges in some areas, especially to the east and northeast where the snow arrived latest and did not have the initial intensity seen to the southwest. The system exits tonight and the rest of the forecast looks on track as well. March arrives with fair weather to start Wednesday, but a disturbance will return clouds to the region later in the day with a burst of rain showers by evening, that may start as snow showers in some areas especially northwest of Boston. This will be as a warm front approaches and passes. Then the frontal boundary sinks back through the region slowly during Thursday as low pressure rides along it, but milder air in place with this system means rain instead of snow. A quick return to colder air as this exits on Thursday evening, and then we watch our next winter storm threat later Friday into Saturday as low pressure heads this way. The track of that storm will help determine the precipitation profile for our region, but at the moment I am leaning toward a track just to the south of our region with enough cold air in place for frozen precipitation (snow and sleet) in much of the area for the event, but we’ll have to watch for freezing rain and/or rain to be involved, especially to the south.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: An early snow flurry north and west and a bit of drizzle south and east possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix likely. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Snow/mix tapering off. Highs 30-37. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Watching the March 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather from one or two systems which may include additional frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a little less frequent storm activity, though still some wintry precipitation threat before the period is over.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

A minor to moderate winter storm is inbound, and will impact us late tonight through Tuesday after a small area of high pressure starts us with fair weather today. Low pressure heads into the Great Lakes and its center elongates, a pathway to a new developing low that will then track eastward just to the south of New England during Tuesday. This will bring a light to moderate snowfall to our region, with enough warm air involved for some mixing with or turning to rain along the South Coast, and possibly South Shore up toward Boston toward the end of the event, after most of the snow accumulation has occurred. The storm exits Tuesday night and we clear out. Say hello to March on Wednesday with a small area of high pressure and fair weather, but this gets scooted along quickly by an approaching warm front which will bring clouds back and some evening precipitation (probably snow or mix to rain). Unsettled weather will be ours on Thursday as the low parenting the warm front will track just to our north, putting us on the mild side initially, then pulling its cold front through during the day with rain showers, and eventually a return to colder/drier weather by evening. Another weak area of high pressure will move across the region by early Friday, a day that starts dry and cold, but more clouds will be streaming into the region ahead of the next storm in our active pattern. This system may be moving quickly enough so that we are into its precipitation shield as early as Friday late afternoon or evening, but this timing will be monitored and refined as the week goes along…

TODAY: Patchy clouds early, then lots of sun during the morning. Sunshine fading behind increasing high to middle cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with or change to rain/drizzle South Coast, Cape Cod, and possibly Cape Ann MA in the afternoon before tapering off. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod as well as Cape Ann MA, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland eastern RI, remainder of MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT and interior western RI. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some rain, may start as snow in some areas. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable to N, then NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late day or night. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

For those awake last evening in a good portion of the region you may have been witness to a beautiful and somewhat rare style of snowfall in this area. Now rare and snowfall has been used together this winter several times because of the lack of snowfalls in a very mild, nearly snowless winter pattern, but this is a different kind of rare snowfall – perfect hexagonal snowflakes falling in calm air from a sky that includes some clearing enough at one point to see the moon, Venus, and Jupiter shining brightly before they set. So both rare and a bit unique. This was the end portion of a snowfall event that even slightly over-performed model and meteorologist expectations, dropping a good 1/2 to 2 inches of low water content fluff over much of the region. This was due to relatively warmer air riding up and over a cold dome of air in place and the recipe was just there for it all to happen that way. This morning, a low level inversion results in some very spotty freezing and/or frozen drizzle, then later today, we may see some additional flakes from a passing low pressure area, the center of which will scoot just north of the region this afternoon, allowing us to warm up a little over yesterday’s chill. This system won’t produce much other than a rain or snow shower to the south, with most of the snow shower activity concentrated to the north of I-90. A few of these showers of snow may put down a quick new coating, briefly slicking up some roads and walks. The system is outta here this evening and a small area of high pressure will then build in overnight into Monday with dry weather. We’ll see clouds advancing during Monday, thickening up later in the day, ahead of a well-advertised winter storm system approaching. This one is going to be a light to moderate snowfall for our region. Model guidance tends to under-estimate the scope of the cold air hanging on with these systems, so I expect this to be a mainly snow event for the WHW forecast area, beginning late Monday night and lasting well into Tuesday, with just some potential for rain to become involved right on the South Coast / Cape Cod before the main precipitation ends Tuesday afternoon. The system won’t have much wind with it for our area as we will be between a primary low that travels into the Great Lakes and a secondary low that forms and moves out south of New England, with not that expansive a circulation, kind of an elongated system, stretched west-to-east. Exit this system Tuesday night, and in builds a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather for the first day of March. But the active pattern will roll on and another low pressure system will impact our region Thursday. Early indications are that this one is destined to have milder air in place for its arrival and take a track a little further north, with a mix/rain event more in the cards versus a snowy one, but at day 5 I’m not ready to lock that idea in just yet, so we’ll see how it goes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty freezing/frozen drizzle this morning. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind calm early, then SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with rain before ending South Coast. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland RI, MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Higher probability for the lower sides of the ranges to verify than the upper sides. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

We’ll have a couple of disturbances moving through this weekend with “minor” unsettled weather. The first one moves through from the west today with lots of clouds and eventually a couple areas of light snow, but no real accumulation expected other than maybe a brief coating here and there. The next system comes through from northwest to southeast on Sunday, with a low center passing just to our north. It’ll be a slightly milder day than today but still cold enough to support mostly snow showers, this time favoring areas north of I-90, again with minor accumulation at most. High pressure moves in Sunday night and Monday with fair weather. And then comes low pressure to impact the region with a winter storm threat. Primary low pressure moves into the Great Lakes via the Chicago area. Similar to the system earlier this week, this one will feature elongated low pressure and a redevelopment south of New England, moving eastward from there. With the primary low staying pretty much intact, we may be stuck a little bit in a no man’s land between the two low centers, which can result in lighter overall precipitation. That’s one scenario. Another is that the newer low is close enough to produce heavier bands of precipitation (likely snow) over portions of the region. So there’s definitely a good possibility of some decent snowfall amounts with that system. There may be a rain/snow line involved as well, which will be determined and fine-tuned. This system will wind down and move out later Tuesday and we’re currently looking at a small area of high pressure to bring March in with dry weather on Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow midday to mid afternoon west, mid to late afternoon further east – minor accumulation possible. Highs 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 11-18 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation and/or rain is possible to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ends, clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2, 4, and 6. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Additional unsettled weather early in the period then a drying trend indicated with a northwesterly air flow overtaking the northeastern US. Temperatures near to below normal.

COMMENTARY

These final 5 days of February will remind many people why you don’t “call winter off” early. None of us have the “authority” to do that, based on the winter so far. Our individual perceptions may differ, but the fact remains, winter doesn’t end before it ends, and even the best forecasters can’t see far enough into the future to guarantee such a silly notion beyond a week or so, let alone a couple months. We best leave that to mother nature to decide. She’s been doing a pretty decent job at it since before we around watching. 😉

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Speaking of the final 5 days of February. Here they come! And they start out fairly harsh. Yesterday’s messy system was followed by a brief shower of freezing rain for many areas last night, even with thunder in some areas! A quick coating of glaze occurred with the passage of these where it was cold enough, and many areas have icy ground to start the day. We did see a bit of a temperature rise overnight though, helping to loosen up the ice and melt it a bit in many portions of the I-95 belt and southeastward, but off to the northwest it has stayed colder. The warmest part of the day is now, and soon, as a cold front goes by, the temperature will fall during the day, into the 20s in areas that are in the 30s, and through the 20s in areas that are already in the 20s, along with a pretty decent wind. Other than a brief snow shower possible with the front’s passing, expect dry weather during today. Tonight’s a cold one – single digit low temperature for most along with below zero wind chill, so bundle up for biting air and beware again of icy areas underfoot! The weekend features ok weather, but slightly unsettled. While it’s coldest Saturday and a bit milder Sunday, both days carry precipitation chances – with a few afternoon snow shower possible as a disturbance moves through the region Saturday afternoon, and a few snow showers (maybe rain showers toward the South Coast) on Sunday afternoon as a weak low pressure system moves quickly through the region. Then our attention turns to the potential winter storm early next week. Monday is “set-up” day behind the Sunday system as high pressure builds in with dry, chilly weather but increasing clouds. We’ve seen our guidance go from painting a picture of a blockbuster snow to a more “ordinary” one during the last several runs regarding the Monday night / Tuesday threat. I will say that it is the best opportunity we’ve had so far this winter of widespread snowfall, but that we still have some details to work out. An initial low is likely to move somewhere into the Great Lakes region, and its elongation and redevelopment details are going to determine what we end up with. There are still several scenarios on the table regarding the detailed outcome, so for now the wording for the day-5 forecast will be generic, and there will be a long period of fine tuning ahead over the next few days…

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 28-35 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers north, mix/rain shower south in the afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Good chance of snow, but may be mixed precipitation to the south. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 2 and 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

We’re in the midst of a drawn-out period of unsettled weather. First was a burst of snow to sleet, some freezing rain (except South Coast rain where it was milder), as a warm front tried to push into the region. The snow area held on longer with a weaker warm intrusion aloft, and allowed a bit more in the way of accumulation further east (inside I-95) to the north of I-90. This frontal boundary doesn’t really make it far, and it just ends up heading back to the south today anyway as surface cold air drains down from the north behind an initial weak wave of low pressure that passed by here. Next comes the frozen / freezing drizzle that will occur today due to a low level inversion – cold air with a light northeasterly air flow trapped below a warmer southeasterly air flow not too far above that, which keeps the moisture trapped near the ground and results in little droplets of water – liquid that freezes on contact with surfaces, or just frozen and falls as little ice grains. We’ll still have some episodic bursts of snow and sleet to the north, sleet and freezing rain south, and non-freezing rain (well south). With most main surfaces treated, we shouldn’t see too much trouble on the roads, but any untreated walkways and stairways, etc., can be slick, so use caution if you have to be out there. The next phase comes as another low pressure wave and frontal boundary push through from west to east this evening, with a little more substantial precipitation – mainly sleet and some snow in southern NH and northern MA, freezing rain to the south, but again with temperatures probably just above freezing it may be just liquid rain right along the South Coast. This batch of precipitation skedaddles pretty quickly overnight and an arctic cold front will be coming through on Friday, possibly accompanied by a snow shower or snow squall. Luckily, a gusty wind and very low dew point will help surfaces dry off without too much icing, but any areas that don’t dry off will quickly ice over if they are not already frozen, as we see a temperature drop during the day. While this arctic shot will be tame in comparison to the one on February 3-4, you’ll still feel it, especially Friday night, with temperatures dipping to the single digits above zero, but wind chill readings going well below zero with the help of a busy northwesterly wind. While the breeze keeps up somewhat into Saturday, it will not be as strong or gusty, and with at least partial sun shining from a higher angle, despite temperatures being well below normal for highs, it will feel somewhat more tolerable to be outside. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers to traverse the region Saturday afternoon though as a disturbance comes through in the northwesterly air flow. Temperatures moderate on Sunday, back to about normal levels, and a weak clipper low will move quickly through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with a round or two of precipitation probable, most likely falling as snow, but possibly some mix/rain toward the South Coast, depending on the magnitude of the temperature moderation that day. In its wake, we’ll have a fair and seasonably chilly day on Monday, but clouds will already be on the increase before the day is over ahead of the next storm system in a continued active weather pattern…

TODAY: Cloudy. Freezing and/or frozen drizzle. Periods of snow/sleet north, sleet/freezing rain south with rain well south. Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 30-37 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats February 28, March 2, and March 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Take a breath. The sun shines this morning for a while, but we have a lot of “weather” on the way and many details to pin down in the coming days, and we get to work quickly. After a small area of high pressure departs, clouds come racing in ahead of a warm front, parented by an approaching low pressure area. While the surface front never has a chance to get very far north into New England – maybe just inland of the South Coast early Thursday, it warms significantly above us, so that precipitation that starts off as snow for much of the region this evening (except mix/rain South Coast) turns to sleet and rain, but that rain will be freezing rain where surface temperatures are cold enough, especially west and north of I-95. While the main area of precipitation exits with the initial low pressure wave moving along or just south of the South Coast early on Thursday, the surface boundary will actually sink southward and temperatures trend downward during the day. Low level moisture behind that low pressure wave means that frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle is possible anywhere the temperature is below the freezing point – which will be pretty much everywhere except the immediate coastline, so watch for slick travel / walking on untreated surfaces even without much precipitation occurring during Thursday, especially if it’s freezing drizzle which would produce a glaze (where frozen drizzle would not as it is essentially miniature sleet. A second low pressure wave comes along Thursday evening and night with another episode or two of precipitation, likely freezing rain and/or sleet except maybe just rain if temperatures hang above freezing near the coast. But it’s wise to plan for slick spot potential even here if temperatures are marginal because just a degree or two can make a difference between your foot meeting a wet stairway/walkway or an icy one. After wave number 2 exits, an arctic cold front goes through on Friday, maybe with a snow shower or two, and like Thursday, the temperature drops during the day, but more dramatically, along with an increasing northwesterly wind. This cold shot peaks Friday night, similar in timing but far less in magnitude than the one just 2 weeks prior. However, it’s still enough that wind chills will plunge to below zero with air temperatures getting into the single digits, so if you do have Friday night outdoor plans, be ready for that. Saturday will be a cold day as well, but with a bit less wind, and at least some sun, higher in angle this time of year, so it won’t feel as cold as the same air mass would in January. Some instability may help to produce a few passing snow showers that day. Sunday, temperatures moderate a little, but a clipper-type low pressure system moves quickly in and through the area during the afternoon and evening with a period of wintry precipitation – mostly snow it appears, but warm enough for some sleet and rain toward the South Coast, depending on the specific temperature profile for exact precip-type. Will fine-tune the Sunday details over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice/rain arrives early, tapers toward dawn. Snow/sleet accumulation of up to 1 inch I-95 belt, up to 2 inches north central MA to southwestern NH, and some icing conditions away from coastline. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of frozen drizzle and freezing drizzle (maybe not freezing along the shoreline). Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 27-34 early, then falling to 15-22 by late-day. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats around February 28 and March 2. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather including wintry precipitation opportunities around March 4 and March 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Lots of unsettled weather in the forecast now as the pattern shifts away from what had been a mild and dry one to a colder, wetter one. Today, a low pressure wave passing just south of our region has spread a swath of rain (South Coast) and snow (elsewhere) across the region to start the day, resulting in some minor snow accumulating mainly on unpaved surfaces where it’s snowing. This will taper off as that wave moves away this morning. A cold front will sweep eastward across there region from late afternoon through evening with another period of precipitation, shorter duration but a little heavier, so some additional snowfall accumulation is likely in southern NH and northern MA, especially away from the coast, with more of a mix/rain situation in the I-95 belt and eastward from there. But this exits quickly tonight and with partial clearing, temperatures drop below freezing, so watch for icy conditions on any untreated surfaces, even where rain fell. Wednesday will be a dry day, but with clouds re-thickening as a small area of high pressure gives way to another approaching low. This is the start of a 1-2 punch of precipitation, the first Wednesday night into early Thursday, the second late Thursday to very early Friday. The precipitation profile will be complex as 2 low pressure waves moves just south of our region. The first one starts as snow most areas, mix South Coast, then transitions to rain South Coast but sleet and freezing rain elsewhere as the surface is cold but it warms up aloft. Expect some tricky travel in many areas and especially untreated surfaces for the Thursday AM commute. Another round of precipitation, again predominantly sleet and freezing rain except rain closer to the South Coast where it stays above freezing, comes at the end of the day Thursday into the early hours of Friday before tapering off. As the second low pressure wave moves away, an arctic cold front will come through the region on Friday morning, perhaps with a few snow showers at times during the day, even behind the front, but most notably a turn to much colder and windy weather through Friday evening. Bitterly cold Friday night and early Saturday and only a modest recovery keeping it well below freezing for high temps Saturday, but with less wind, and sunshine, so feeling more tolerable with a higher sun angle at this time of year. Next low pressure area wastes no time moving in so it may be snowing again by sometime Saturday night…

TODAY: Overcast through mid morning with a period of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch on unpaved surfaces I-95 northwestward, with mix/rain to the south. Mostly cloudy afternoon – rain/snow showers return from the west late-day, snow showers mostly north of I-90 with rain showers south. Highs 38-45 by midday but may fall a bit in the afternoon. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow showers of 1/2 to 2 inches north central MA and interior southern NH and up to 1/2 inch northeastern MA to NH Seacoast, with rain showers mostly south of I-90. Partial clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouding over. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely, except possibly just rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Sleet/freezing rain except South Coast rain early morning. Additional snow/sleet/freezing rain may return late in the day. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain, maybe just rain for a while South Coast. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 27-34 early, then falling to 15-22 by late-day. Wind NE backing to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sun followed by increasing high clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Low pressure impacts with snow/mix and maybe some rain (precipitation types to be sorted out when storm tracks are better known) February 26, February 28, March 2). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Additional unsettled weather including wintry precipitation opportunities around March 4 and March 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Complex, changing weather in a new weather pattern during this week… Rain has already exited Cape Cod after a disturbance brought some there overnight, and today, while being mainly cloudy, will also be mainly dry, other than the chance of a passing rain shower later with a cold front. Tuesday, a small, quick-moving system will approach from the west. Initially a wave of low pressure will ripped out just to our south bringing some rain to the South Coast, then later in the day a frontal boundary and the main system will swing through from west to east with a period of rain/mix/snow, rain most likely to the south, mix to snow to the north (southern NH and northern MA) where a small accumulation can occur. Exit this system at night with a break into Wednesday as a narrow sliver of high pressure moves across the region, but then we enter a stretch of unsettled weather later Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday as a pair of low pressure areas track eastward, passing just to our south. This will be a colder set-up than we’ve seen for many of our storm systems this winter, and we’ll be dealing with a variety of precipitation. Right now, the idea is that things get underway as snow late Wednesday except mix/rain South Coast, then with colder air hanging at the surface but warming aloft we see a sleet / freezing rain situation later Wednesday night into Thursday for much of the region, but perhaps warm enough for just rain South Coast. This breaks for a while as low number 1 exits, but then Thursday evening to early Friday low number 2 comes along with another swath of wintry precipitation, but again maybe some rain at first along the South Coast before ending as something frozen. All areas may end as snow showers Friday as the final low moves offshore, intensifies, and drags colder air in. Once we get to the end of Friday, the look and feel of mid winter will be dominant – something that we never really saw, except parts of the region for a brief time in late January.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH evening, N under 10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain possible South Coast in the morning. Rain/mix/snow arriving west to east afternoon, snow most likely southern NH and far northern MA where a coating to 1 inch of accumulation may occur, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Highs 38-45 by midday but may fall a bit in the afternoon. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouding over. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely, except possibly just rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Sleet/freezing rain except South Coast rain early morning. Additional snow/sleet/freezing rain may return late in the day. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain, maybe just rain for a while South Coast. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely early, then variably cloudy with snow showers possible. Temperatures steady 27-34, falling during the afternoon. Wind NE backing to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching another low pressure area with a snow/mix threat for the February 25-26 weekend, leaning toward Saturday night / Sunday morning for most likely period of impact. Active pattern may send another system with snow/mix/rain leaning toward frozen variety February 27 or 28. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities – watching March 2 & 6 as very early call. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

In the next 5 days we transition out of the pattern we’ve been in much of the winter. The La Nina driven ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, while not vanishing, weakens and flattens and allows colder air to the west and north to expand a little further east and south in the next 5 days (and beyond). For this forecast period, it means unsettled weather as we will be in a battle zone between the warmer and colder air. A few weather systems come by our region during this time. Today, while we have a mid and upper level system bringing its moisture through our region in the form of clouds, it will stay rain-free, but also warm up over yesterday’s temperatures as we get a strengthening southerly air flow. Tonight and early Monday, a disturbance will arrive and kick off some wet weather over Cape Cod and the Isands, and maybe briefly in to RI and southeastern MA around dawn Monday, but then this system will be kicked eastward by an approaching trough and cold front from the west. This may bring a rain shower to portions of the region in the afternoon and evening before it moves offshore and is followed by a small ridge of high pressure with a dry start to Tuesday. I was more optimistic about this day’s forecast previously, but not so much now as it’s evident that the next disturbance will be moving in quickly, and we see a quick return of clouds and then some rainfall with a warm front / cold front combo moving through. As this system exits Tuesday evening, it may end as snow with small accumulation potentially for northern MA and southern NH. Tired yet? Well the weather isn’t going to be as yet another, slightly larger scale trough and low pressure area moves in for midweek, probably starting as rain but may evolve into a mix/snow situation before it’s done with us – details to be worked out.

TODAY: Early sun mainly eastern areas, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely overnight Islands / Cape Cod, and brief pre-dawn rain possible RI to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending, possibly as a period of snow in northern MA and southern NH with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain with a possible trend to freezing rain, sleet, and snow from north to south. Temperatures starting 38-45 then gradually falling. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming mostly NE to N.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

An unsettled and somewhat colder pattern appears likely for the the final days of February. Main storm threat exists around the February 25-26 weekend based on current timing of features – likely including frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

A dry February weekend, well 2 out of 3 if you included Monday’s Presidents Day holiday as part of a 3-day weekend. High pressure approaches and provides a bright, dry, chilly day today with a gusty breeze at times as the air mixes, but diminshing later on. The wind blowing across the water will result in more cloudiness across Cape Cod for several hours before that moves off / dissipates. Only a few passing fair weather cloud fragments may drift across the sky elsewhere. The high shifts east and a southerly air flow takes over Sunday with lots of clouds. An upper level disturbance then moves in from the west and triggers some rain showers in the region late Sunday night into Monday. A lot of this may stay just offshore but there is a decent shot for eastern areas. Later on, a cold front approaching from the west and northwest may trigger a few more rain showers before we get a shot of chilly, dry air for Tuesday. We start seeing evidence of an evolving weather pattern by the middle of next week when the next low pressure system moves in from the west on Wednesday that may start with a variety of precipitation – something to monitor and fine-tune later.

TODAY: Lots of clouds Cape Cod with increasing sun there later in the day. Sunny with just a few passing clouds elsewhere. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later and shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 45-52. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight favoring the South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain that may start as a mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Unsettled weather early in the period may produce a variety of precipitation trending toward frozen before tapering off with mid period dry weather. Another storm threatens with potential wintry precipitation later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Flatter Southeast ridge and a jet stream in a position further south than it’s been much of the winter results in a pattern of near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation including frozen stuff.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A cold front approaches, slowed briefly by a developing low pressure wave, then passing through the region from midday through this afternoon. Mild air and an increasing southerly wind under an overcast sky ahead of the front will lead to periods of rain showers during its passage, and the rain showers may end mixed with or turning to sleet and/or snow in some areas north of Boston if precipitation lingers long enough until the early evening. Tonight, the colder air invades, along with a gusty wind, so it’ll feel like mid winter finally. Our weekend is dry, but with two different types of weather. Saturday is sunniest and coolest with a gusty breeze as high pressure approaches from the west and low pressure departs via eastern Canada. Sunday is milder, with a shifting wind to a more southerly direction, but also turns cloudier as that southerly air flow brings increased moisture. Upper level low pressure will help kick off a new surface low just south and east of New England Sunday night into Monday, bringing a good chance of a period of rain favoring RI and eastern MA and perhaps the NH Seacoast early Monday. A trough and frontal system will keep clouds around and may produce an additional rain shower anywhere in the afternoon hours. Tuesday, a shot of chilly, dry air arrives with a gusty breeze once again.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain showers west to east starting at mid morning. Areas of fog through early afternoon. Breaking clouds but additional rain showers possible through late-day, except sleet and/or snow showers possible southern NH / northeastern MA. Highs 55-62 morning, then falling temperature afternoon. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH this morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts possible this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with a few snow showers possible mainly NH Seacoast to MA North Shore. Clearing thereafter. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W and diminishing later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 45-52. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight favoring the South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A gradual pattern shift will be ongoing with a stretch of unsettled weather at first then potentially more of that at the end of the period. More precipitation variety becomes probable with a colder trend taking place. Timing/details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Newer weather pattern more evident during this period with a couple of low pressure areas potentially impacting the region with a variety of precipitation including frozen stuff, and an overall colder temperature regime. Timing/details TBD.