DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

We all know that our weather can display significant variety or big change over short periods of time, and this weekend will be such an example, as we eye record warmth today and talk about cold and snow for parts of the region tomorrow into early Monday. First, the warmth. High pressure sits offshore and a healthy southwesterly air flow will be blowing very mild air into the region today, and despite a fair amount of cloud cover and lingering icy snow cover on the ground, we’ll challenge our record highs for the day, set in 1999. But two cold fronts are set to pass through the region tonight, one this evening, one a little later at night. The first one may trigger a rain shower, the second one brings the coldest air in and sets up a lane for some moisture to move northeastward into the region as a wave of low pressure develops on the boundaries to our south and moves rapidly northeastward off the coast. This will be a generally minor snow event from about the I-495 belt southeastward, but as the low goes by our region the wind will be from the northeast for a good number of hours Sunday evening to Monday morning, resulting in ocean-effect snow along the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod, where additional accumulation is expected. Finally, the wind shifts to the northwest and ends the ocean effect snow and we’re just left with a very cold and dry Valentine’s Day on Monday. Look for another cold day Tuesday, maybe a tiny moderation, as the core of the cold will have departed but we’ll still be getting a polar feed from Canada. A weak disturbance moving through on Tuesday may create a few snow showers. High pressure will follow and sit overhead with a cold morning Wednesday before shifting offshore with a noticeable moderation developing during the day, along with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-53 South Coast, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain shower. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of light snow pre-dawn. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing and shifting to N under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring areas east of I-495 / I-84. Temperatures steady 20-27. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. A few moderate ocean-effect snow bands possible MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Snow accumulation for the evening, dusting / coating west of I-95 belt, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches southeastern MA including Cape Cod with local bands of 3-5 inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod, then clearing Sunny elsewhere. Highs 23-30. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Another up / down pattern with a strong warm up February 17, a cold front bringing rain that may end as snow showers, and a return of colder air February 18. Fair, chilly weather mid period. Moderating temperatures and some unsettled weather possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading through late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – February 12 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A bubble of high pressure that brought us a clear and cold night has again resulted in the re-freezing of yesterday’s melt-water, so watch for patches of ice if traveling about, especially on foot, during this morning until it warms up enough to melt it again. And it will warm up enough as high pressure shifts offshore and we have a milder southwest wind developing today. A warm front going by tonight ahead of low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will bring clouds and even milder air, preventing any melt-water re-freeze. This also sets us up for an unseasonably mild day Saturday, likely the warmest day regionwide since mid December, with a few record high temperatures possibly being challenged. But don’t get use to that, because a strong cold front trailing the aforementioned low pressure area moves across far northern New England will pass through the WHW forecast area from northwest to southeast, during Saturday evening, possibly with a rain shower, but most areas staying dry. A secondary front will follow right behind that in the early hours of Sunday, helping to deliver much colder air to the region, possibly with a period of snow in the pre-dawn hours. Then, as a wave of low pressure forms along the boundary as it moves offshore, look for a couple periods of snow for the region during Sunday, greatest chance the further southeast you are. This won’t be a big storm, but may result in enough accumulation to require the need for a snow removal effort for some areas. In fact, a northeast wind behind the departing low pressure wave may trigger some ocean-effect snowfall over the MA South Shore into Cape Cod which may add to the accumulations somewhat through early Monday. Otherwise, Monday’s main feature will be the cold. Much of the region will fail to make the middle 20s on Valentine’s Day, and we’ll have quite the cold Monday night and lingering cold Tuesday as high pressure remains west to southwest of the region. An upper level disturbance passing by on Tuesday may trigger a few snow showers.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Patchy clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-52 South Coast, 52-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain shower. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of light snow pre-dawn. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing and shifting to N under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring areas along and east of I-95. Temperatures steady 20-27. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. A few moderate ocean-effect snow bands possible MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Snow accumulation for the evening, dusting / coating west of I-95 belt, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches southeastern MA including Cape Cod with local bands of 3-5 inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod, then clearing Sunny elsewhere. Highs 23-30. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

High pressure overhead shifting offshore February 16 with dry weather and a cold start but milder finish. A significant but brief warm-up may occur about February 17 before a strong cold front brings rain to possible snow showers and a return to cold weather on February 18. High pressure brings fair weather, starting cold then moderating by late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – February 11 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Low pressure passes north of our region today through tonight, dragging a warm front through the region this morning which has clouds, areas of fog, and maybe a touch of very light snow with it, and then we break into the warm sector with a sun / cloud mix but also the chance of a passing rain shower as the cold front approaches and passes later, but it will turn out to be a fairly mild day with many areas at least making a run at 50 and a few exceeding it. Tonight, slightly colder air returns and tomorrow will be a cooler day than today, but a nice one as high pressure moves into the region. This high will slide offshore Saturday and we’ll warm up yet again, with increasing wind ahead of a stronger cold front. This front may bring a rain shower later Saturday and will introduce a much colder air mass by Saturday night through the rest of the weekend and Valentines Day Monday. What we are watching for is the track of a wave of low pressure that will form on that front as it moves offshore of New England. It should be close enough to at least graze the region with a light snowfall during Sunday to early Monday before it speeds away.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog and a slight chance of very light snow this morning, favoring areas west of I-95. Chance of a brief rain shower this afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, then SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early evening. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Chance of snow early, then clearing. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Dry and cold February 15 then moderating temperatures middle of next week with rain showers possible with a cold front later February 17 into February 18 before windy/colder weather arrives at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Active pattern develops with a couple unsettled weather threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – February 10 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

High pressure brings fair weather today. The re-frozen melt-water from last night will re-melt again as the temperature climbs well above freezing. High pressure shifts offshore tonight and a cold front approaches from the west on Thursday, which will be a milder day. That front will move through with cloudiness and perhaps a few rain showers later in the day Thursday west to east, introducing slightly cooler but dry weather for Friday. The up-and-down continues Saturday as we warm up again ahead of a stronger cold front. This front may bring a rain shower by Saturday evening and send a stronger shot of colder air into the region for Sunday, at which time a wave of low pressure will be forming on the front as it tries to move off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Some of the guidance we look at has been taking this wave close enough to produce a swath of snow across southeastern New England on Sunday, and this chance will be reflected in the forecast at this time, with fine-tuning to come. There is also the chance the system is too far offshore for impact.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few afternoon rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or evening rain showers possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early evening. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Depending on the track of a low pressure wave, we may see snow or snow showers lingering especially in eastern areas early on February 14, otherwise look for a cold and mostly dry Valentine’s Day and February 15 as well, with just a few snow flurries possible from a disturbance February 15. Moderating temperatures midweek next week with cold front due by later February 17 or early February 18 that may bring some rain/mix/snow followed by a return to colder air for the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Active pattern develops with one or two storm threats heading into late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – February 9 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Low pressure departs today, with rain exiting early, but low level moisture allowing cloudiness and areas of fog to linger through the morning hours, before dry air works in to break the clouds and dissipate any fog during the afternoon. An increasing wind should help to dry some of the ground off, but areas that remain wet will re-freeze tonight, so watch for redevelopment of icy patches. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather Wednesday. This high shifts offshore and we warm up a little Thursday, but a disturbance and cold front approaching from the west will bring clouds with a few showers, favoring rain, possible. Friday will be a tad cooler but fair with another small area of high pressure. That high will also shift offshore and we’ll warm up yet again for Saturday, ahead of another cold front, as a mini roller coaster ride will be ongoing.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with rain ending but areas of fog lingering. Breaking clouds afternoon with a few intervals of sun possible by late. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH this morning, NW-W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few mix/rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or evening rain showers possible. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Cold front pushes offshore and wave of low pressure moves along it which we’ll have to watch for a grazing snow chance especially for southeastern areas to end the weekend on February 13. Colder weather that arrives February 13 will continue into the start of next week with fair weather expected for Valentine’s Day and a disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers February 15. Milder by the middle of next week with possible rain showers at the end of the period with an approaching frontal system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

The up and down temperature pattern with no major storms expected to continue.

C-19 Chat Post – February 8 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to start the week. An inverted trough extending northward from the low will trigger some mix/snow going to rain, although it will be patchy in nature. Tonight, as the main low passes southeast of New England, a more solid batch of moisture will move through, but that atmosphere will be too mild to support snow, so it will fall in the form of rain with temperatures above freezing. Despite that, with the cold ground and cold packed snow/ice cover, there can still be some icy areas, so use caution if walking or driving. Conditions improve Tuesday as low pressure pulls away and a day that starts out wet will end up drier with some clearing by later in the day. Expect fair weather Wednesday with high pressure in control, the threat of a few rain showers with milder air Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front (with low pressure passing north of the region), then fair and slightly cooler weather Friday as high pressure builds back in.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as snow/mix from Boston north and west, with minor snow accumulation at most in higher elevations well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-40. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain. Areas of fog. Possible icing on cold surfaces. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog during the morning. Becoming partly sunny afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

While the pattern sends two or 3 disturbances across or near the region, the overall sensible weather will be on the quiet side entering mid February. Not looking for any major storms, but most likely 1 or 2 frontal passages, between which we may need to watch for a low pressure wave passing to the south of the region. Will detail timing etc. as these days get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Similar pattern, on the quiet side, a couple of systems that are likely minor, variable temperatures that average near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 7 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Our regional frozen tundra impression continues with a very cold morning under a mostly clear sky (except a few areas). Saturday’s gusty breeze has settled to a lighter breeze overnight, which allowed some decent radiation of whatever “heat” we had right out into space, and this morning’s 8 a.m. temperatures are just starting to recover from slightly colder lows but still sit in the single digits to lower teens above zero, a bit milder over the immediate South Shore of MA, Cape Cod, and even the tip of Cape Ann as a batch of ocean clouds and even some light snow showers have been over those areas. These clouds and snow showers will eventually push offshore today as the wind shifts more to the west, but remains fairly light, so we’ll have another cold but more tranquil day today. We’ll see some patchy clouds mainly through midday moving across northern MA and southern NH in response to a weak disturbance passing north of the region, as high pressure controls but with its center well to our south. This high pressure area will shift eastward off of the Middle Atlantic Coast tonight and early Monday, and we’ll immediately begin to feel the impact from approaching low pressure from the southwest. While this low center seems destined to take most of its impact (heaviest precipitation and strongest wind) to the south and east of New England, an inverted trough of low pressure to its north will allow precipitation to work into our region during Monday and Monday night, probably in the form of rain for many areas as the air will have warmed both at the surface and aloft, but it should be cold enough to support at least some snow with possible accumulation in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. As the low pressure area starts to move away from the region Tuesday, colder air coming in may try to turn any rain to a mix or even brief snow before it ends, but by then the system will be pretty much a done deal so I’m not expecting much wintry precipitation impact closer to the coastline. High pressure builds in with fair and seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. Low pressure passing north of our region across eastern Canada on Thursday will send a trough and cold front through the region from west to east with some clouds and perhaps a few showers of snow and/or mixed precipitation.

TODAY: Morning clouds and a few light snow showers Cape Ann, South Shore of MA, and Cape Cod, and a few additional clouds moving across northern MA and southern NH, then generally sunny from midday on. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Clear early, then clouding up. Lows 12-19. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain/mix/snow arriving, mostly snow higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH and may start as snow/mix other areas before going to rain. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain except snow/mix higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Snow accumulation of up to 1/2 inch in the I-95 belt from the MA/NH border to near I-90, out to near I-495, and 1/2 to 2 inches northwest of I-495 and north of I-84 / I-90 with highest amounts for highest elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with snow/mix ending early interior higher elevations and rain possibly ending as mix by late morning coast. Variably cloudy midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42 Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow/mix showers. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

February 12 and February 14 are the days to watch for unsettled weather. Overall pattern is on the quiet side with variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 6 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A taste of the tundra this weekend as the region is coated in a variety of ice and will be cold and dry. The exception to the “dry” will be the light snow that lingers across Cape Cod this morning, and a few more snow showers may catch the outer Cape a bit later due to a cold northwest wind blowing over relatively warmer water. The gusty weather of today will settle for a more tranquil Sunday, but outside of treated surfaces and locations that get a lot of direct sun, the ice isn’t going anywhere for the next couple of days as we stay well below freezing most of the time. High pressure slips offshore and we turn milder to start the week. Low pressure will then follow this, passing southeast of New England late Monday through Tuesday, but close enough to bring some light rain and snow to the region. High pressure returns with fair weather by Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with light snow Cape Cod morning then variably cloudy there with a few snow showers outer Cape Cod this afternoon. Elsewhere, cloud/sun mix. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Chance of light mix/rain favoring southern areas later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix. Temperature steady 33-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow, favoring southeastern areas in the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Seasonable to mild and dry early period, briefly unsettled mid period, shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.