DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

Happy Father’s Day to the dads reading! Another quick update as this recovery is like taking the Cog Railway up Mount Washington, but leaving the actual train behind… 😉 No big changes again. High pressure to northeast, gradually slips southward the next few days. Our air flow goes from easterly to southerly between now and midweek. Meanwhile, a little jet stream energy tries to move in at times. This, combined with increased low level moisture, will eventually lead to the return of shower chances in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, we get a brief shot of heat and humidity along with a chance of thunderstorms as a cold front will be approaching from the west at that time. And rewinding a bit, when I say “heat”, I don’t mean Bermuda High super heat blast etc. – like the hype you may have already seen on social media (“death ridge”, etc.) .. Ignore all that. Yup there’s some hot weather coming for parts of the East this coming week – it’s called a pattern change. For us, it means a brief shot of above normal temperatures as we’re in an overall west northwest jet flow and close to boundaries of cooler air.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower, mainly west of I-95 later-day. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. A shower possible. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day or evening. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

The summer solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20. That day will feature less humidity but a shower or thunderstorm chance as a secondary trough sweeps through the region – most of the day being rain-free however. June 21-22 weekend looks mostly dry and seasonably warm but cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas on June 22 with a trough nearby. Another disturbance can bring a shower or storm threat June 23 and/or 24.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free and fairly seasonable, with some normal temperature variability.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

Very short update as I am treating illness with meds and resting a lot. Nothing really changed in the outlook anyway. Low pressure passing to south today – wettest this morning, may linger longer South Coast into afternoon. High pressure noses in barely from the northeast later today into Sunday, may result in some partial clearing, but overall a cloud-dominant, cool weekend, but dry after the damp start. A turn to a more southerly air flow the first half of next week means a slow warm-up with increased humidity. I’ll detail this more on tomorrow’s post.

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain ending northwest to southeast in the morning. Lots of clouds / breaks of sun afternoon with some lingering showers possible South Coast. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Juneteenth holiday on June 19 features high humidity in a southwesterly flow and a chance of late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms with the approach of a cold front. Secondary disturbance may trigger a shower or storm June 20 but overall looks drier with a northwesterly air flow. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solistice at 10:54 p.m. that night. High pressure brings fair and seasonably warm weather June 21. Northwest flow disturbance can bring a passing shower or thunderstorm a time or two June 22-23 but overall, rain-free and seasonably warm weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

General west northwest flow pattern with a a couple disturbances to pass by. These can bring a few showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time looks rain-free and fairly seasonable, with some normal temperature variability.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

Here’s your better late than never update from WHW on this Friday the 13th! Well, we’re about to have a little weather good luck, and something I was anticipating. And that is, having most of our weekend spared of wet weather. Before I get to that, today will be a day governed by high pressure but also by a lot of cloud cover and occasional sun as mid level moisture streams along on a west northwest flow aloft. High pressure will situate itself in southeastern Canada and hold into and through the weekend. It gives just enough ground so that low pressure passing to our south off the Mid Atlantic Coast will produce some wet weather in our region during the first approximately 12 hours of Saturday. Don’t take that too literally though. Start time, end time, length of rainfall – all TBD by location. General idea is a broken band of mid level convective showers will be initiated around or shortly after midnight oriented west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of I-90, maybe a bit south or a bit north. This slides eastward and blossoms into a more general rain area over the region that will already be in the process of ending from northwest to southeast a couple hours after sunrise, so that by midday it’s a done deal pretty much everywhere, other than potentially lingering right on the South Coast a little longer into afternoon before departing. After this the high pressure area to our northeast is going to be strong enough to give us rain-free weather for the remainder of the weekend, with limited sunshine possible as we move through Saturday afternoon and some partial sun as well on Sunday. Previously, I had a shower / drizzle threat in Sunday’s forecast which I feel safe removing. The trade off to this is having cooler than average temperatures since our dry air is coming from high pressure where it is with an air flow off the Atlantic. Monday, that high will slip southward and our air flow will begin a shift to more southerly. You won’t notice it much at first, but a subtle warm-up will begin, although still with a lot of cloud cover in the sky. I do think we do escape any threat of rain on Monday too. Tuesday’s weather does look a little more unsettled as a more established southerly flow is present and a warm front moves into the region, presenting the chance of showers and thunderstorms – details TBD as we get closer to that.

TODAY: Cloud / sun mix with emphasis on the clouds. Some high altitude smoke above that. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind N under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Showers develop late evening / overnight then steadier rain toward dawn. Lows 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending northwest to southeast in the morning. Lots of clouds / breaks of sun afternoon with some lingering showers possible South Coast. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

This 5 day period features the final days of spring and first days of summer, as the solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20! What will the weather do for the change of seasons? Well, I think it will act fairly appropriately. A warmer, more humid southwesterly air flow with a few shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us for midweek (June 18-19). Right now I think a frontal boundary can bring a heavier batch of showers and storms through at some point June 20, followed by a warm and mainly dry June 21-22 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Overall pattern features west northwest flow here and a series of fronts / disturbances, which can bring a few showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time though – rain-free. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

A summertime feel today with a warm, dry westerly wind blowing ahead of a cold front moving our way from the north, but it stays dry today – just a few clouds, and more hazy smoke above us from the Canadian wildfires. The front drops through tonight, and one tweak to the forecast I am making is the low chance of a shower or two bring triggered near the South Coast as it moves through that area. Friday, it heads south and we’ll enjoy another day of fair weather, some mid and high level clouds streaming in above us, a little reduction in the wildfire smoke aloft, and slightly cooler than today, but still pleasantly mild. Our weekend looks considerably cooler with a broad onshore flow between low pressure stretched out to our south and high pressure in southeastern Canada. The latter will be strong enough to limit how much rain falls, sending drier air intrusions in. Our greatest shot at more widespread rainfall appears to take place in the early hours of Saturday to a few hours after sunrise, with just spotty sprinkles and drizzle otherwise through Sunday. Enough dry air can get into our region for partial sun at times both Saturday afternoon and for a portion of Sunday. Monday’s weather currently looks similar with not much change to the overall set up of broad scale easterly flow at the surface, westerly flow aloft, high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south, but not too close. This is kind of a “mostly cloudy” but not much else kind of look at this point, with continued below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun along with a few passing fair weather clouds. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Brief showers possible near the South Coast. Lows 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Less high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80, coolest at the coast. Wind N under 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers arriving overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers / drizzle possible. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

Large scale pattern dominated by the evolution of a modest middle US ridge of high pressure in a west northwest more progressive air flow over our region. A couple of disturbances can bring some unsettled weather in this pattern – currently favoring June 17 and 19, but with low confidence on timing and no details possible. Temperatures trend warmer overall. Summer solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Indications continue for the general large scale pattern featuring a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. In this pattern temperatures are generally variable but average somewhat close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

We have now reached mid June – still spring, technically, but as we move through these days more and more people start summertime activities, and this time of year often carries weather risk because we’re still technically in springtime, our most volatile season. And if you’ve had a pattern that has featured volatility / unsettled weather more than what we may typically see, well there you go. Is it any surprise we’re on the fence regarding this weekend’s weather? I will say though, I still have some optimistic thoughts about it. But before we get there, we have some other weather to talk about. Today and Thursday will feature a warmer, drier westerly air flow, with fair weather. The big issue is that this comes along with a substantial batch of high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada which will filter the sun considerably, especially Thursday. A building of high pressure to our west will tilt our air flow a bit more to the northwest on Friday, and while we’ll have some cloud patches and a little reduction in the smoke plume, it will be a mainly dry day (had showers in the forecast before, but feel they will hold off / not materialize). It will also be a little less warm on Friday. The weekend…. I’ve had some optimism in my outlook – a feeling that high pressure in eastern Canada would be a little more dominant than shown by guidance, and while the weather would be “unsettled”, we’d also have a share of nicer weather mixed in there. Today’s leaning is similar – and this finds me going for wettest weather chances favoring the early hours of Saturday, and another opportunity for some shower activity for a portion of the daytime Sunday, but with limited coverage. The pattern features high pressure to the north and a frontal boundary to the south, a focus for some moisture as disturbances move along it, but limited due to stronger high pressure to the north. There will be a lot of fine-tuning ahead for this weekend forecast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Some high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Large scale pattern dominated by the evolution of a modest middle US ridge of high pressure in a west northwest more progressive air flow over our region. A couple of disturbances can bring some unsettled weather in this pattern – currently favoring June 17 and 19, but with low confidence on timing and no details possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. Summer solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. Variable temperatures – not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

An unsettled weather day today as a trough moves through. Low pressure passing by to the north will drag a warm front through, followed by a cold front. This will result in episodes of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. A warmer, drier westerly air flow replaces this at midweek for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the sun that shines on these days will not be bright as it will be filtered by significant Canadian wildfire smoke. The next disturbance will send some clouds and maybe a passing shower into the region Friday and it will be a bit less warm. The weekend may start unsettled as another area of moisture passes through the region in a west northwest flow aloft on Saturday. Surface wind may become broad scale onshore making it a much cooler start to the weekend, depending on the orientation of the features by that time…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Foggy areas early. Mainly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms fading as they move eastward. Clearing overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix with a chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, favoring morning-midday. Some clearing possible later. Highs 64-71. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

Still leaning toward mid period as the most likely time for the next bout of unsettled / wet weather. No significant heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats. Variable temperatures – not far from normal overall. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Today’s weather will feature abundant cloud cover between a front that sits to our south and high pressure over Atlantic Canada. The result is a broad but weak onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with highs in the 60s and while dew point temps are sub-60, it feels slightly humid as the dp & temperature will not be that far apart. We will see some spotty light showers from mid level clouds as a weak trough moves eastward through the region in a westerly flow aloft, but this will also be battling a bit of dry air trying to move down from that Atlantic Canada, which can thin / break the clouds for a little sun at times. Clouds thicken tonight as the front to the south advances northward as a warm front, and a couple areas of light rainfall may be generated by this process. Tuesday we find ourselves in the warm sector after that front goes by and prior to the arrival of a cold front from the west. An increase in low level moisture in this air mass and a disturbance moving in aloft will trigger showers and possible thunderstorms, a few which can contain downpours, but it will not rain for the entirety of the day – probably under 50% of the time in any given location. As surface low pressure passes to our north, the cold front will move through Tuesday night, putting an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat. If you’ve been following the blog, you’ve seen me mention the “warmer behind the cold front” synoptic set-up for midweek, and that’s exactly what we’ll have. While we have what is technically by definition a continental polar air mass, originating in Canada, arriving behind that cold front, it will be modified by passing over warmed land and also get a further boost from the down slope effect off the hills and mountains to our west. This results in fair, warm weather but lower dew points Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, a front will move through the region from the north and I remain of the meteorological opinion that this process will be quicker and stronger than some guidance indications. This front will bring the threat of some passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to end the work week, but the coverage / intensity will depend on the timing.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – maybe thinning for a bit of sun at times, but also a stray shower or two possible. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog early. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty, shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Current call on June 14-15 weekend: High pressure pressure far enough south from eastern Canada to keep our region rain-free but cooler, though there may be some variable amounts of cloud cover due to high and mid level moisture streaming along west to east just to our south. Watching for the arrival and passage of a trough and low pressure at some point the first half of next week – leaning toward June 17 for the most likely wet day.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Indications for the general large scale pattern point to a middle US high pressure ridge and more of a west northwesterly air flow in our region with a weak trough being the main feature. This allows a couple disturbances / fronts with shower / thunderstorm threats to pass by – timing uncertain. Variable temperatures but averaging fairly close to normal for the period. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

Today we’ll have a better day than yesterday was. Some early morning fog sits in lower elevations and will burn off. The sun will be filtered to dimmed by a mixture of high level clouds and high altitude wildfire smoke – the former coming from the southwest and the latter coming from Canada. At least we can have a day without a rain threat, even if it’s not bright sunshine. A warm front will begin its approach tonight and Monday, increasing our cloud cover at times, but this will be met with drier air being sent out way from a ridge of high pressure in Atlantic Canada. The dry air will do a pretty good job for a while, often thinning and breaking the cloud advance while limiting any rainfall to just patchy and very light, favoring southern areas. Finally, Monday night the clouds will thicken as the warm front receives a reinforcing push northeastward. Its parenting low pressure area will track north of us Tuesday, dragging a cold front toward the region, which then passes through at night. This late Monday night to late Tuesday evening time period is when we see our best opportunity for showers – perhaps a few thunderstorms at some point during the day on Tuesday while we’re in a warm and humid air mass. At midweek, a drier westerly air flow takes over, and as I mentioned yesterday, we warm up behind the cold front due to the action of warmer land to our west and some down sloping of air off hills and mountains to our west warming up the air mass. Look for fair weather to be dominant with high pressure to our south and low pressure in Canada to our north during this midweek time frame, but we will have to watch a frontal boundary to the north by later Thursday in case it moves a little more quickly than currently indicated by guidance…

TODAY: Early to mid morning valley fog patches and some stratus cloud patches drifting across Cape Cod. Otherwise, filtered to dimmed sunshine with high clouds and wildfire smoke aloft, then some increase in clouds later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH followed by coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Abundant clouds but partial sun. A couple brief periods of very light rain possible mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

I have a more optimistic outlook currently than many medium range models have. High pressure may be stronger than modeled, keeping the next round of unsettled weather south of our area and keeping our region, after a brief shower threat with a passing front June 13, generally dry heading into and through next weekend, with another trough and low pressure bringing unsettled weather back at the very end of the period. Not super-high confidence on this just yet. This pattern would prevent significant heat and the coast would often be coolest during the daytimes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

The period may start unsettled and end with a front bringing a shower and thunderstorm threat, with fair and seasonably warm weather in between. Summer Solstice: 10:54 p.m. June 20.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

A quick look back at yesterday: Wind damage from morning thunderstorms parts of north central MA to Merrimack Valley. Flash flooding and pockets of strong wind from slow-moving storms and heavy rain late day / evening central MA into southern NH, but activity largely stayed away from the Boston area as was expected, until much weaker and just as remnant showers. The cold front responsible for that will be moving slowly across our region from northwest to southeast today. With more extensive cloud cover the atmosphere will not be nearly as unstable as it was yesterday. Additionally, a low pressure wave passes offshore to our southeast, putting more marine-stable air into southeastern areas. That low itself may trigger a few showers this morning on Nantucket and perhaps Martha’s Vineyard, but its main rain area will stay over the water. That low actually serves to keep showers from forming and moving in sooner, giving the front a pause. But as the front does move slowly along, it will be the focus for a widespread area of showers. Just enough instability along the leading edge of this will allow for some new development of showers and possible isolated thunderstorms, but for the most part we’re looking at a non-severe event dominated by “just rainfall” messing up some more outdoor plans. Finally, the front starts to accelerate offshore this evening and tonight with drier air arriving, though some lingering low level moisture can result in fog patches. Sunday, a weak area of high pressure moves in with a sun/cloud mix, but we won’t have to worry about any shower activity (yay!). While winds will be light, a general onshore flow will keep the coast coolest. The frontal boundary that moves through will not be that far away as it becomes stationary to our south tomorrow – sound familiar? It should as this pattern has happened several times this spring. A wave of low pressure will be forming on it to our southwest and moving out south of our area on Monday. Initially this will result in more clouds coming back in later Sunday into early Monday, and perhaps some shower activity favoring the South Coast. About half the computer guidance takes this system far enough north for showery Monday, while the other half of the guidance keeps it further south with less impact. I am leaning toward the drier scenario with a narrow but just-strong-enough ridge of high pressure to our northeast holding just enough dry air over our region. This will not be the case Tuesday, however, as a stronger push from a trough and low pressure area from the southwest will bring a warm front through with some rainfall, then a cold front to follow with showers. The cold front pushes offshore as low pressure passes to our north Tuesday night, resulting in improving weather by Wednesday with a drier westerly air flow taking over. Wednesday may be one of those “warmer behind a cold front” days, which are not unusual for this part of the country especially in spring / early summer when you’re replacing a marine-influence warm air mass from the south with a land-warmed air mass from the west behind the front. I feel pretty confident in calling for that scenario even though it’s “day 5”.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Region-wide light fog through mid morning. Patchy thicker fog near South Coast all day. Isolated light showers possible anywhere this morning except mid morning showers more likely Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Widespread showers and possible leading edge thunderstorms northwest to southeast midday to end of afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW then NW from northwest to southeast late in the day.

TONIGHT: Any early showers near South Coast / Cape Cod ending, otherwise partly cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH followed by coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers south of I-90. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early including a chance of showers south of I-90, then partial sunshine. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. WindE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Dry, warm westerly air flow June 12. Disturbance / frontal system brings a shower chance June 13. High pressure builds in after that with dry weather and seasonable temperatures, coolest coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Unsettled weather early in the period followed by a more summery feel to the weather pattern, pretty much in time for the official arrival of summer (solstice occurs late at night – 10:54 p.m. June 20).

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

The systems on the weather map today and over the next several days might resemble an array of toys in a toddler’s play area. Lots of stuff in play to influence our sensible weather today, this weekend, and early next week. Avoiding a long descriptive run of words that would tire you out as much as cleaning up after the toddler, here’s as concise a summary as I can muster… Today, we have an approaching cold front still well to the west with a warm and humid air mass in place, a pre-frontal disturbance, and the development of both a South Coast sea breeze and East Coast sea breeze. Initially the disturbance is already causing a cluster of showers / t-storms in north central MA to the NH border. In the very short term (up to 9:00 a.m.) this cluster will initially build heading toward the I-495 belt from near Rt. 2 to southern NH, but should then fade while drifting east. This area will be briefly strong with some hail probable and perhaps some damaging wind gusts. Look for 2 more areas of showers / t-storms to fire off this afternoon – one in a similar region to this morning’s, somewhere north of I-90 and well west of I-95, another triggered by the South Coast sea breeze boundary somewhere near I-90, most likely west of I-95 (watch radar if possible to see this in real-time). The first batch should drift east northeast in response to the disturbance triggering it, while the second batch drifts more to the north in response to the South Coast sea breeze boundary. The East Coast sea breeze boundary may act as a barrier to the storms’ ability to push into or east of the I-95 belt – something else we’ll have to watch once the activity develops. During the peak of today’s convective activity, the most organized storms can produce torrential rain with local flooding, frequent lightning, and isolated damaging wind gusts. With the loss of daytime heating and the washing out of the sea breeze boundaries, we’ll be left with a mainly cloudy evening and overnight with just isolated showers and patchy fog forming. Saturday, the cold front mentioned previously will be moving slowly but more steadily across the region from northwest to southeast. While it will be a little cooler than today it will still be humid and we can see some isolated to scattered showers ahead of it, and then likely a more organized band of showers along it as it traverses the region from about noon to about sunset – not in a great hurry. Part of the reason for this is an offshore low pressure system which initially helps limit the front from being active, and delays its arrival as well. We will see if the front ends up under-producing its potential due to that offshore system – something we see at times. Thunderstorm chances are lower Saturday due to the lack of solar heating and resultant instability in the atmosphere. Drier weather follows the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday, but the front isn’t going that far and tries to make a run back our way later Sunday with at least more clouds and possibly some additional wet weather Sunday night. Currently, I’m optimistic that an area of high pressure will dry us out again for Monday, with just enough push to get the job done. But that won’t last long as the next trough and frontal system comes along from the west on Tuesday, returning clouds and showery weather to the region – details TBD.

TODAY: Most of the sun shines through wildfire smoke in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT early morning, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers and thundrstorms in a cluster north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH early to mid morning, diminishing to showers while drifting to the east. Additional scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas near and north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers morning-midday, then more widespread showers move through northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers early, favoring eastern MA and RI, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix, then mostly cloudy by late-day. Evening shower potential south and west of Boston. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds thin for sun but wildfire smoke aloft potential again. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

A drier westerly air flow returns middle of next week but still a shower chance with a trough passing by later June 11 or June 12. Cautiously optimistic that high pressure will control with a dry weather stretch late next week, but this is not high confidence as there are hints of blocking and some guidance is not so “fair”.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

Indications are for fair weather early and end of period / unsettled later mid period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Today we will have our first taste of the heat / humidity combo as much of the region away from the South Coast makes a run at 90 with dew point readings in the 60s – not oppressive and high end heat, but early in the season these conditions are more impactful than mid summer due to high sun angle and the “not-used-to-it” effect for many people. So if you are outside today, protect yourself from direct sun when possible and stay hydrated! Lingering smoke from Canadian wildfires will add to the hazy look of the day. I’m looking for dry weather other than the small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly 2 regions: 1) North of I-90 / west of I-95 due to a little help from lifting of air over hilly terrain. 2) South of I-90 close to a sea breeze boundary separating marine air from the hotter air mass over land. While the chance is very low in any one spot, any location that does get one could experience a brief very heavy downpour. Any of this activity will diminish and dissipate this evening and a fair, warm, humid night is on tap. Clouds become more dominant heading into Friday with more substantial moisture heading into the region, and this will likely lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms in what I expect to be up to a couple clusters – the first that may form in the morning to midday, the second sometime in the afternoon to very early evening. Activity Friday will favor areas near and west of I-95, and near to north of I-90 in MA, as well as into southern NH later in the day into evening, based on current expectations. These storms’ main impact will be heavy rain with local flooding, but I cannot rule out a severe storm with isolated wind damage. This activity lifts to the north for a quiet evening on Friday, but as a cold front comes into and slowly across the region Saturday, an additional opportunity for showers exists. I think the thunderstorm threat Saturday is limited to eliminated due to a more stable atmosphere overall. Part of this will be due to a small wave of low pressure passing by just to our southeast, putting a southeasterly air flow over much of the region, injecting a more stable layer of marine air, and more abundant cloud cover also making solar heating more limited. The timing of the showers Saturday is still TBD, but I do think there will be many rain-free hours in any given location. Sunday’s weather looks quite nice as the front pulls offshore and a drier air mass arrives. This will persist into Monday as high pressure builds across the region, promoting fair weather.

TODAY: Hazy sun much of the day, eventually some clouds pop up later. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mid afternoon to sunset. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas near to north of I-90 and near to west of I-95 midday to late afternoon. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79 except cooler coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Next trough and frontal system brings unsettled weather June 10 into June 11 then fair weather returns with high pressure returning. Temperatures variable, no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Indications are for fair weather early period / unsettled later period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

Canadian wildfire smoke aloft and variable high clouds together limit the sun at times today which will shine but in very filtered fashion. Our warm-up continues as well with a southwesterly air flow, which persists through Thursday, along with a gradual increase in humidity to “noticeable” levels. While the thickest smoke plume moves out tonight, we can still see varying amounts of it Thursday. We also have to watch for an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few locations, but the triggers will be limited, so the odds of any one location seeing something are small, and would favor north of I-90 and with the help of orographic lift in hilly terrain. Basically a 1 in 10 shot is what we’re looking at. The outlook remains the same with a frontal boundary settling into the region Friday into the weekend with a couple of weak low pressure waves and an upper pattern preventing a clean frontal passage. This presents the opportunity for a few to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with uncertainty as to timing and coverage. Current leaning is greatest chances of activity in the WHW forecast area is Friday morning and midday and again Saturday afternoon and evening. However, don’t make solid plans on that leaning – just have back-up plans if possible. I realize many graduations and other late spring / early summer events take place these days, dependent on weather, and it’s a tricky set-up. Looking ahead to Sunday, I still feel that a push of the frontal boundary to the southeast will be sufficient to clear us out with fair weather returning.

TODAY: Sun filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms, possible favoring areas north of I-90 if they occur. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning to early afternoon. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring late-day / evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Brief fair weather June 9 then a stretch of unsettled weather middle of next week before fair weather returns end of week. Details of the trough and frontal system bringing the unsettled weather not quite known as of yet. Temperatures variable, but not extreme.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

Indications are for fair weather early period / unsettled later period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

This is going to be a “big diurnal” day. We haven’t had many of those this spring with an active pattern of wind and cloud cover preventing such set-ups, but today’s is ideal. Overnight, high pressure moved in and some initial clouds dissipated and moved out, leaving us with clear, calm conditions. Temperatures responded by falling quickly – a process known as radiational cooling – an idea set-up where any warmth from the day radiates easily to space as the air is not mixed by the wind. But today’s atmospheric set-up, with high pressure moving in aloft and the surface high center shifting to the south is one that allows a strong warm up. Often in this set-up, your coolest morning spots become your warmest afternoon spots, so areas like Taunton MA, for example, that sit in the lower 40s as of sunrise for low temps, will probably peak around or just over 80 for a high temp – a nearly 40-degree “diurnal” or difference between morning low and afternoon high. A location where the diurnal will be much less will be Boston’s Logan airport, sitting in the upper 50s early this morning without the full benefit of radiational cooling, eventually to have their temperature rise thwarted by a weak sea breeze, so they go from the upper 50s to perhaps near 70, a “diurnal” or only around a dozen degrees. These specific examples suffice to explain our late spring set-up today with the exception of the rest of the details of the sky conditions. A few patchy mid level clouds may appear in the sky later, and a few fair-weather cumulus may pop up during the day, but the sunshine minutes will be much higher than previous recent days. One limitation will be the trend toward more filtering of the sun by an increasing wildfire smoke plume aloft (from Canada). This will be with us into tomorrow as well, as we have a slightly more pronounced west to southwest wind and a warmer day, even for eastern coastal locations. It’ll be the South Coast most affected by the ocean air in Wednesday’s set-up. Thursday continues the warm up, even qualifying for a “hot” day for areas away from the South Coast as we make a run at 90 – a few places reaching it – and a little more humidity with dew points reaching or breaking 60. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest later Thursday, but its approach will not be aggressive and it also will have limited moisture to work with, and the lack of triggering mechanisms for convection, so I suspect as of today’s update that Thursday’s shower and thunderstorm chance will be minimal, with isolated activity favoring areas well west and north of Boston later in the day. The tricky part of this week’s forecast continues to be the Friday/Saturday time frame when the aforementioned frontal boundary will sag into our region and hang around for a while, and we watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure to drift up our way from the southwest. Yes, once again this means our wet weather chances increase as we head to week’s end, but what I need to still work out as timing of greatest shower and thunderstorm chances. At “days 4 & 5” there really is no way to know the finer details of convective development and the smaller scale triggers that don’t exist until these showers and storms exist, which play a significant role in governing their behavior, so I’m at a loss of ability to go into much detail just yet other than saying that Friday and Saturday look humid and unsettled.

TODAY: Sunshine, patchy clouds, and variable high altitude smoke, tending to increase later in the day. Highs 71-78 except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

Currently leaning toward a push of drier air and return to fair weather to finish the weekend on June 8, fair weather early next week and unsettled weather with a trough and frontal system approaching by mid week. Temperatures variable, but not extreme.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

At least one round of unsettled weather, favoring later in the period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

Upper level low pressure pulls away from the region today and high pressure builds in our direction, but the northwesterly air flow between the two of them keeps us cool, and cold air aloft still allows some clouds to pop up during the day today, in addition to the existing ones moving along in the air flow – similar to but less extensive than yesterday. If you were paying attention, you noticed a veil of wildfire smoke overspread the sky from the south late yesterday (into last night). This was actually from Canada, but it took the indirect route around the upper low and then into our region as the circulation started to lift to the northeast. Since then it’s cleared back out, but we’ll be seeing it return more directly in a northwesterly air flow aloft later Tuesday, Wednesday, into Thursday, before getting pushed back out late week, at which time the sky will likely be more cloud-filled anyway. But before that, we have fair weather, lots of sun, and a strong warm-up in store as high pressure slips to our south Tuesday and Wednesday, into Thursday. Later Thursday, the approach of a cold front from the northwest can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the region. That front will then move into our region and temporarily become quasi-stationary with a couple rounds of probable showers and possible thunderstorms at some point Friday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny but increasing high altitude smoke late in the day. Highs 71-78 except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun filtered through high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke aloft may thin somewhat with filtered sunshine, then a sun/cloud mix with isolated to scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 most of South Coast and 70-77 Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

A frontal boundary nearby to start the weekend brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms June 7, then a push of cooler and drier air brings fair weather for June 8. Fair weather early next week with high pressure in control, and a trend toward unsettled weather with a low pressure trough moving in toward midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

At least one round of unsettled weather in a transitional pattern – details TBA. No major temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

Change the month / change the pattern. I used to joke about this with colleagues in my early days of forecasting. It just seemed like this happened enough times that it was a “thing”, but it’s really just a coincidence. We start June today with lingering effects from the pattern we had much of May, but immediately begin a transition to a newer pattern which will dominate the next 5 days. Today we welcome June but continue to feel impact from yesterday’s storm system as low pressure swirls in eastern Canada while drifting away. We’ll be under the influence of its circulation through Monday, but most notably today when we have a gusty breeze and start the day with a fair amount of stratocumulus clouds in the storm’s back-side circulation. Additionally, as clear patches allow more sun to shine, the cold air aloft in combination with the solar heating of the surface will trigger cumulus cloud development. I don’t think the cloud cover will be as extensive as last Sunday’s similar set-up (if you recall that), but the sun will most definitely be limited, along with below normal temperatures, so it will be a bit cool-feeling if you’re outside. Additionally, I cannot completely rule out a spot shower wandering into the region mainly north and west of Boston late in the day. Monday’s weather will be less breezy and more sunny, and while it’s still on the cooler side of normal, you’ll feel it as warmer out there with the combination of less wind and more sun. High pressure slides south of our region Tuesday through Thursday, and those days will feature a significant warm-up – a nice summer preview. Fair weather will be ours Tuesday and Wednesday, also much of Thursday, but a cold front approaching from the northwest later Thursday can trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity. The details of that threat, unknown at this point, will be clarified as we get closer to that day.

TODAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. A spot shower potential late-day, favoring areas north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 62-69. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior valley locations. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late-day. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

A frontal boundary will be nearby June 6-8. This time, no big low pressure areas – different pattern. What we do have to work out is a couple of waves of low pressure that will have an impact on the front’s position and associated shower / thunderstorm threats. It’s pretty far into the future, but my current leaning is the frontal boundary stays to our northwest June 6 (Friday), then moves through in the early hours of June 7 (Saturday), settles to the south, before making a temporary run back this way later June 8 (Sunday). The sensible weather from this scenario would be a shower and thunderstorm threat Friday night and first thing Saturday, and a shower threat later Sunday. Indications are for high pressure and fair weather early the following week (June 9-10).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Continued uncertainty about the details of the pattern, and current leaning in this time frame is for weak blocking with high pressure north, low pressure south, and our region favored to be on the drier side of that pattern, but having to watch low pressure to the south, “just in case”. Again, don’t hang up on any details here – this is just a general idea for now.