DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)
The systems on the weather map today and over the next several days might resemble an array of toys in a toddler’s play area. Lots of stuff in play to influence our sensible weather today, this weekend, and early next week. Avoiding a long descriptive run of words that would tire you out as much as cleaning up after the toddler, here’s as concise a summary as I can muster… Today, we have an approaching cold front still well to the west with a warm and humid air mass in place, a pre-frontal disturbance, and the development of both a South Coast sea breeze and East Coast sea breeze. Initially the disturbance is already causing a cluster of showers / t-storms in north central MA to the NH border. In the very short term (up to 9:00 a.m.) this cluster will initially build heading toward the I-495 belt from near Rt. 2 to southern NH, but should then fade while drifting east. This area will be briefly strong with some hail probable and perhaps some damaging wind gusts. Look for 2 more areas of showers / t-storms to fire off this afternoon – one in a similar region to this morning’s, somewhere north of I-90 and well west of I-95, another triggered by the South Coast sea breeze boundary somewhere near I-90, most likely west of I-95 (watch radar if possible to see this in real-time). The first batch should drift east northeast in response to the disturbance triggering it, while the second batch drifts more to the north in response to the South Coast sea breeze boundary. The East Coast sea breeze boundary may act as a barrier to the storms’ ability to push into or east of the I-95 belt – something else we’ll have to watch once the activity develops. During the peak of today’s convective activity, the most organized storms can produce torrential rain with local flooding, frequent lightning, and isolated damaging wind gusts. With the loss of daytime heating and the washing out of the sea breeze boundaries, we’ll be left with a mainly cloudy evening and overnight with just isolated showers and patchy fog forming. Saturday, the cold front mentioned previously will be moving slowly but more steadily across the region from northwest to southeast. While it will be a little cooler than today it will still be humid and we can see some isolated to scattered showers ahead of it, and then likely a more organized band of showers along it as it traverses the region from about noon to about sunset – not in a great hurry. Part of the reason for this is an offshore low pressure system which initially helps limit the front from being active, and delays its arrival as well. We will see if the front ends up under-producing its potential due to that offshore system – something we see at times. Thunderstorm chances are lower Saturday due to the lack of solar heating and resultant instability in the atmosphere. Drier weather follows the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday, but the front isn’t going that far and tries to make a run back our way later Sunday with at least more clouds and possibly some additional wet weather Sunday night. Currently, I’m optimistic that an area of high pressure will dry us out again for Monday, with just enough push to get the job done. But that won’t last long as the next trough and frontal system comes along from the west on Tuesday, returning clouds and showery weather to the region – details TBD.
TODAY: Most of the sun shines through wildfire smoke in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT early morning, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers and thundrstorms in a cluster north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH early to mid morning, diminishing to showers while drifting to the east. Additional scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas near and north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers morning-midday, then more widespread showers move through northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, mainly SE to S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers early, favoring eastern MA and RI, then partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix, then mostly cloudy by late-day. Evening shower potential south and west of Boston. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Clouds thin for sun but wildfire smoke aloft potential again. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)
A drier westerly air flow returns middle of next week but still a shower chance with a trough passing by later June 11 or June 12. Cautiously optimistic that high pressure will control with a dry weather stretch late next week, but this is not high confidence as there are hints of blocking and some guidance is not so “fair”.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)
Indications are for fair weather early and end of period / unsettled later mid period. No major temperature extremes indicated.
Thanks TK !
Excellent discussion, as always !
Thanks, TK!
National Donut Day! 🙂
Oh …… I might have to give in to will power and get a jelly donut after school to celebrate.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Made 92 yesterday here. Currentltv76 with dp 64 with overnight low of 71.
I predict not a drop of Rain at my location, although I woll be watching. Had the briefest of a shower overnight sometime as my porch roof was totally wet and street was damp.
Today is the anniversary of D DAY.
I’ll never forget. My Dad was in the 2nd wave to hit the beaches of Normandy and marched all the way to Germany. He came home while many others did not.
God bless your Dad, Dave, and all who stormed the beaches on this day.
I second Captain’s thoughts !!
Thanks Tom.
Thank you Capt.
I’d also like to echo Captains thoughts, Dave.
🙂
Thanks Tk
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a cell heading towards Lawrence.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
I inadvertently erased one section I wrote for Saturday about the offshore low limiting shower activity tomorrow. That’s the basic summary in case you don’t wanna go back and re-read the discussion since I have edited and added it. Same deal as what I mentioned yesterday anyway. 🙂
If I’m reading the velocity radar correctly, may get a NW land breeze in Boston soon, as I think I see an outflow boundary, not strong, but one nonetheless, headed towards Boston.
Logan currently has a NNE wind at 15 mph with temp 73.
Still 76 here.
Thunder started around 6:30am here in Chelmsford, rain at 7. Some vivid, frequent lightning accompanied by torrential rain. It’s 8:00 and quickly winding down with rumbles. Thankfully, the toddler didn’t wake!
Always nice to see you here, flower girl. Very happy your little guy did not waken.
Thanks, TK.
We had a quick 0.8″ of rain this morning with lots of lightning and very little wind.
Tom, Logan has switched to a due North wind and temp jumped to 76. 🙂 You called it. great job!
Little to no change in latest SPC outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Thanks, TK.
77 here, dp 64
Not long after I wrote that there was very little wind here, I got a text from my son. His drive from here to work usually takes 20 minutes. Today it was over an hour. There was a lot of wind damage in Ayer and multiple road closures.
If you’re familiar with that area, you’ll know where the rotary is on Rt 2A. He sent a photo of trees and telephone poles across Rt 2A just as it exits the rotary heading west.
I’m very familiar with that area. And Oh my.
Thank you, TK
74 up from 67. 65 DP
If we had weather, I slept through it
Now Logan’s wind is ENE and temp back down to 73
Thanks TK
78 here, dp 64
Logan’s temperature is down to 70 with ESE sea breeze.
Thanks, TK.
Bronchitis still going strong, unfortunately. Really sucks not to be able to talk.
I wish I could be as healthy, physically, as Trump. I do think he will outlive us all, despite his bad habits. He never appears even slightly ill. Frankly, even when he had Covid he looked a lot better than I did when I had it.
I cough and sniffle or have a scratchy or sore throat probably 30% of days in a given year.
I exercise daily and eat healthily, hardly ever drink. But take it from me, it really doesn’t matter much. It certainly doesn’t improve my health or even lower my bp.
Hope you start to see improvement soon, Joshua !
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025060612&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025060612&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025060612&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kind of neat, I don’t think this is a traditional low with fronts, I think this is more of a thermal low.
Another sign severe weather may be occurring inland, to the north and west.
Look at the convection pop between 495 and 95.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Looks pretty dry for Eastern MA from Boston area South
I meant for today.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Was just out. Pretty good East wind here, yet it is still 78.
Pretty nasty storm just West of Worcester
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Woburn High School is going ahead with the 6:00PM graduation ceremony outdoors and I think it is the correct call. Shot of a shower or thunderstorm just prior to it, but it should move through and the rest of the time frame through 8:00PM will be rain-free.
A cell just popped up by 495 just South of the pike. Not sure if it will have staying power or not.
pooforama!!!
WPC surface map
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
SClarke has a T warning box over his area.
I hear lots of thunder and it’s raining.
Of course, this is the evening that we’re driving to North Conway for tomorrow’s wedding.
Ugh. Safe travels. Lots of lightning in NH too Wedding is tomorrow and not tonight?
It’s hard to compete with Donut Day, but for any guitar players out there, today is National String Change Day!
Make that WORLD String Change Day:)
🙂
How about World String Cheese Day? 😉
86° temp 76° dp down here in Sarasota Gulf of Mexico temperature 85°. When I come back to Warwick next Wednesday looking warm. Then to take a dip in the 57° ocean temps at Narragansett.
I keep getting pop ups about a thunderstorm warning in sutton. It on wunder for me too.
I get there is a warning for part of Worcester county. But I have NEVER received a message or txt that sutton is under a warning unless it applies to sutton.
Is this part of the nws staff rollback
My younger daughter postponed a trip to the store because id the warning. It turned out to be a flood and not T storm warning. Not sure where flood came from Either. Not a drop here today. Maybe something coming
Wow, quite a radar.
Arrived on the Cape Cod Canal to low clouds and fog, it’s mild and humid. 1/4 mile backup, if that, to Sagamore, I expected a lot worse.
Any rain down this way tonight Tk
Well it’s not timely now, but the answer would have been no. 🙂
Sox down 5-0 vs Yanks in 1st. Still haven’t gotten the side out!
Total rainfall for Swampscott =0!
ditto here as I expected
I can’t tell is JimmyJames had storms.
Mark?? Maybe nothing so far just like here ?
Six down 7-0 at bottom 2nd and not out of it.
*Sox
Not much rain here Vicki. We were at my daughter’s confirmation tonight at a church in Willimantic and it didn’t rain at all there. Roads were only partially wet when we got home in Coventry. Most of the activity missed us to the north.
As of now, my sons graduation is still on for outside on the football field tomorrow am at 10. Superintendent is going to consult his on call meteorologist again first thing in the am and make a final call at 7am. If it is looking wet, they will move it inside to the auditorium and tickets will be restricted to 6 per student. I’m happy with the way they have handled this so far.
Red Sox now leading MLB with 57 errors.
Yeah I heard somewhere that most of the rain Friday would be to the north and west. 😉 At least I think I heard that somewhere…
Fog, mist and drizzle here in Coventry CT this am. Got this message from the superintendent at 7am….
Unfortunately, the weather pattern changed for the worse from late yesterday afternoon and the outlook is not good for our Graduation Ceremony. At 5:20 a.m. this morning the meteorologist provided me with the following update specific to Coventry:
“drizzle, fog and mist in your area through 10 am. A light rain is expected to develop during the 10 am to 11 am period with increasing intensity after 11 am or so.” With that, the ceremony is being moved inside. It will be held at 10:00 a.m. in the Veterans Auditorium.
So far anyway this forecast is correct…
MHS is going outside at 2pm for graduation.
It will be a great day no matter what, but I do hope the weather holds.
Happy graduation day to all !!
They’re going to get it in with one sprinkle otherwise dry.
Thanks TK !
New post…