Winter Hints

112 Comments

9:47PM

Short and sweet.

I don’t believe the NWS’s extended forecast.

I don’t believe the GFS model (ask me if you don’t know what I mean).

I do believe the European model (again ask me if you don’t know what I mean).

The pattern is going to feature near to below normal temperatures and overall mostly dry weather, but storm threats will not be completely absent. A weak one will pass through at midweek but not produce much precipitation. A more important one will be just south of New England this weekend, initially expected to stay just far enough away to avoid major impact, but should be watched. And I think we may repeat this process in the next week or so.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light and variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light rain or snow in southern NH during the morning. Chance of very light rain in northern MA and light to briefly moderate rain in southern MA and RI in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind light variable in the morning, S around 10 MPH in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers in southeastern NH and eastern MA mid morning to early afternoon. High 43-48. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY:  Partly cloudy and windy. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 31. High 42.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 49.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 52.

112 thoughts on “Winter Hints”

  1. With below normal temps at times, I believe we are vulnerable for snow, but getting any kind of moisture into New England is going to be difficult these next two weeks.

    TK, am I correct that the GFS has no storm but the Euro does?

  3. Well sure enough the 0z GFS is starting to look a bit more like the Euro this weekend bringing a cold storm in here with some interior snow. The GFS centers the action on Saturday while the Euro holds it back till Sunday. In fact the 12z Euro showed 6″+ of snow in a good portion of western and central MA as JMA posted on the last blog . There is some definite blocking going on in the North Atlantic which looks like it wants to stay here for awhile. I think we could have a few more interesting storm chances in here the first few weeks of April as well. Where was this setup the rest of the winter!?

    1. and……I think the 0z EURO then proceeded to shift further south. I think, in essence, the 2 models pretty much reversed their thinking from yesterday and thus still a split decision. 🙂

  5. It really feels like late March this morning temp is 34.7, I expect alot of us to be in the mid 50’s today 🙂

  7. The 00z Euro did shift things a little further south, but not by much. If anything, it continues to show more organization with each run. The position and details aren’t as important at this time as the overall pattern it looks like we are entering. Figures it has to happen now, but it keeps things interesting for a while 🙂

  8. Channel 7 weather blog is saying there is a chance that Mon and Tuesday of next week could hit 70. That’s what I want and warmer.

    2. John I saw that too and was surprised. I think thats what TK meant by not believing the NWS extended forecast. I want the warmth too even though a small part of me isnt ready to let go of snow :O

      1. Get that part gone. I know some people are bummed about the lack of snow this winter. But now winter is over and we transition over to spring. Yesterday am was bad, I dont want that now, nor do I want spring snow. Cool days, rain days I can take that now because it is a transition period. Right now I want to get excited about my time of year. Coaching my son in baseball, communions, cookouts, flowers, vacations and watching my pool get used. These things and more make this my favorite Time of year. Snow and cold mow, BA-humbug.

          1. I hear ya John, I definately enjoy the warmer weather months for many of those same reasons. I guess I just feel cheated out of a winter that never came. I very much enjoy the outdoors in winter. One of the many reasons I live in NE and love it is the change in seasons. Gives me a sense of liveliness and well-being. This year, from the fall through now, the days have for the most part been the same. Three seasons combined into one long blah…

        2. I agree! I’ll eat my new red sox hat if we see any accumulating snow from central mass to the coast. Have any of these model runs that show this kind of thing really verified all winter? Not too often and it wont start now. I see that warm air in here on monday too. It wont be as warm as Pete has it. 70’s? More like high 50’s, and a mid 60 or two here and there. March/april sun is too strong, NAO looks to be either neutral or slight positive as well as the AO. Any other year, I’d say maybe, maybe that snow chance might verify. Not his year.

  10. 0z Euro shifted south but still presented a chance of a moderate snowfall mainly south of a Bennington,VT to Boston line. 0z NAM and GFS are not that dissimilar from the Euro.

    0z GFS snow totals:
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX

    0z NAM snow totals:
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX

    Timing on this varies from Fri night to Sun AM depending on model.

    That being said, both the 6z NAM and GFS have shifted further south. GFS is pretty much a complete miss for all of SNE now. I don’t think this storm is much to get worked up about – even if it is a hit, accumulations would be mainly confined to interior higher elevations.

    Our Fox AM met here in CT also mentioned 70 degrees again by early next week, but even if that happens, we are talking a much more short lived and less extreme warm up than last week.

    1. Forgot to mention that 9 of 12 IWS model ensembles put a bullseye of 12-18″ of snow over Charlie’s house.

  11. Mark I agree this not going to be a big storm and I think if any areas of SNE see witnry weather it would be the higher elevations. I would not be surprised if this is a complete miss.

  12. Drove into Lexington today and it snowed LIGHTLY for around 2 minutes before turning over to a light hail, then stopped all together.

  13. Prior to this potential event, is the airmass preceeding it somewhat similar to the airmass we had yesterday, where there’s a lot of extremely dry air in place over New England….if so, its probably going to have a large effect on tempering down how much precip makes it to the surface on these projections.

  14. Back in January it was the colder drier air that supressed that storm system further south where coastal areas of CT, RI and southeastern MA saw the most snow. As I said earlier I would not be surprised if this is a complete miss.

    2. We were out in Framingham and it was quite dark to the west. Back in Sudbury the sun came out briefly and sky was dark to northwest. Now it is just cloudy and raining – nothing heavy. Doppler radar shows a whole area of rain moving east-southeast. When we first went out earlier, it honestly felt like snow was in the air. Forsythia blooming in Sudbury and everywhere as well as other bushes and trees. The weather is really weird!

  16. Post from NEWW on FB:
    OMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND *** COULD IT BE

    The weekend system has been trending more toward a potential coastal storm depending on your model of choice, however the picture is far from clear.

    With the AO forecasted positive and the NAO slightly Negative it would appear that this system would be less progressive than currently advertised, coupled with a strong feature and cold pool that will be over Eastern Quebec may be just enough to cause an unexpected problem.

    At this time QPF type is also an issue, However despite some 50 degree readings on Friday Temperatures could crash as the feature mentioned over eastern Canada becomes tapped and rotates south toward the approaching Robust coastal system.

    This is something were watching and think the potential for frozen precipitation is far greater than not, As has been the case this past winter nothing is easy or clear cut, this is no acceptation.

    So for now we are not forecasting a snow event but merely showing the potential has plenty or merit and the players will be on the court.

  17. I hope I am wrong because I would like to see one last dose of snow before we turn the calender to April but I think this system stays south of us.

  21. The carrot is there for u to take, there will be no grand finale snow event for Boston to Providence as much as I’d like a blizzard it’s very very very unlikely to happen this year. And yes I’ve look at all the possible models I can Spring is here and is here to stay, hope everyone’s having a good day 🙂

  26. Could it be between 60-70 degrees early next week? I’m seeing a warm up. Maybe tk can comment on this 🙂

    1. Same here. All the snow talk is a wishfull thinking, IMO. 🙂 Might see a flurry, but nothing to worry with.

  27. Both the 12z GFS and NAM are south with the weekend storm (for now anyway) although the NAM still clips CT with some snow. Then we have a brief warmup Mon/Tues before the colder air returns. The GFS looks like it is trying to set up a trough over the east coast mid-late week with a slow moving double barreled low pressure sliding off the NE coast and bringing some snow here (would be significant in northern NE). Interesting setup if it materializes:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=03%2F28%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  29. 12Z Euro not very impressive, even more south than 0Z. Still could change but getting too close to the point of no return

    1. …..and lows in the upper 20’s this weekend. Matt, you need to transport your snow making machine over to Charlie’s front lawn this weekend and bury it!! Since he is a snowlover, I’m sure he won’t mind 🙂

      1. mark already did sleeding hill is open it has gone below 28 the last few nights and got some decent snow making weather i fire the snow maker then i shovel what snow i got into a path then the following night i fire it up some more to put a clean layer on.

  31. a good period of showers moving through the cape and islands.
    Multiple ski areas are tring to stay open such as sunday river and stowe

  32. Peaking at monthly climate data…..the 4 major reporting stations have totaled about 1 inch of precip for March……but, 95% of that fell on March 1st and 3rd. So, not only is the month well below normal, but the last 3 and one half weeks have included plenty of sunny, warm days or sunny, extremely low humidity days.

    I’m pretty sure Marshfield didn’t total more than .05 inch today. I think this weekends system is not going to offer much and that mid week system next week looks like it gets stopped in its tracks out in the Great Lakes and it’s energy gets stretched apart as it slowly has to meander eastward under the upper low in the maritimes. That doesn’t look too promising for precip.

    I know that yesterday had a very cold, dry airmass being advected in. So dew points and relative humidities were going to be low regardless. But to see RH’s in the single digits to low teens and dew points -10 to -15F below tell me that the ground in New England really had nothing of any substance to offer as far as evaporated moisture. Had the soil been wet, I can’t imagine those would have been the values.

    I guess the good news is that the reservoirs and lakes don’t look terribly low, by any means. I’m not sure how that’s happening, but I think it’s a good sign in the short term if the dryness continues another month. Beyond that and maybe we start to see some low waters in our lakes and rivers as well.

    1. Tom – that’s what I’ve been seeing all winter. Well at least along the Sudbury River. Areas around here that are low lying near the river still have water and I can’t figure out why.

      1. Yes, I’m not sure. Perhaps the cool season and low sun angle didn’t make much of an impact on the lakes and rivers.

  34. Update in a while…
    Tweaks: Going to change the timing of the weekend low pressure area faster, and further south. Early next week warmer, later next week colder and potentially stormy. Euro has the right idea but is having a few issues handling the changing of the pattern. And it IS changing. Make no mistake about it.

    2. Yes, if the low pressure wave is far enough north on Saturday, it snows in parts of SNE.

  37. On petes blog he has no mention of snow either this week or next. He did not have 70s for Mon/Tues I think he had mid 50s. Little rain for Sat. Did mention rain for next week. That should say on his broadcast. I have not read his blog yet.

    1. Snow is far from everyone’s mind, there not thinking of winter anymore, sure there will be cooler days but the time of year I dislike alot is only 6 weeks away when it consistently is warm, can’t wait for late Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov again.

      1. Can I ask a dumb question? Why do you not like warm weather? It doesnt get that warm up here. Trust me, I grew up in Oklahoma. Whats not to like about 80 degrees, shorts, flip flops, pretty girls with a nice tan, pools, beach, no coats and 10 layers of clothes, green grass, blooming plants, and the ice cream truck. Gee man, i’ll never understand all you guys who hope for snow in april and dont like spring and summer weather. I’m not trying to be argumentative, just astounded, thats all. 🙂

        1. I’ve lived in Dallas and hated it, met my wife there and got back to NE as quick as I could, after 1 summer there I knew it wasn’t for me, alot of us in NE like our winters just like Florida likes there summers, I’ve gone to Florida and was astounded that people loved 90+ everyday, personally It makes me want to throw up just thinking about it, literally that heat used to make me nausea once a week, i couldnt stand being 90 in early May to just think its gonna get worse and we have 4 months of over 100+ a have a great day brad 🙂

          1. Well, I’ll still never understand. 🙂 I like it hot. I mean real hot. I’d be just fine in Tuscon! I live here for work, not really by choice. When i retire, i swear i’m going where I’ll never be cold again and never, ever even sniff snow flake. I dont even weant to own a coat heavier than a wind breaker. BTW, I love dallas!

        2. The humid heat makes me feel sluggish and zaps my energy. I get frustrated. Also when it get that hot we are inside with ACs on. I figure summer is when we should have all windows open and be on the deck with a martini or beer.

          I’ll have to reverse the question. Why would anyone not like snow and cold? It’s invigorating/refreshing.

            1. Matt you can’t even walk on the beach when it’s excessively hot and lake water feels like leftover bath water and I sadly don’t have a pool:(

              1. go in the water its what a beach is for not to mention when it is 85 or higher it is more like 60s or 70s or 80s on the beach so the beaches usually do not have those hot temps since afternoon sea breeze even a slight one will keep it from going as a high . one day at my house it was tripple digit heat and at the beach it was 75

          2. More than likely? Because I didnt grow up with it. I think it’s what your used to as a kid. I grew up on a farm. Winter was a dead time. Nothing growing, nothing to do, stay inside by the fire and wait for spring planting. I dunno, I just cant move when it’s cold. I have no energy, it’s dark when I go to work, dark when I get home. I cant work outside, or much of anything. The cold bites through me. I cant put on enough layers to stay warm outside, and when i’m inside i have to peel it all off. And to top it off up here, it never really gets to be summer, really. Oh you have what you guys THINK is summer for about 6 weeks, but thats it. Spring? It’s a joke really. Fall’s ok, but I dont care much for that either since I know whats coming. In 20 years up here, this winter and the winter of 94-95 was about what i like in a winter. Even then, I want winter from december thru Feb, then I’m done.

            1. My husband would agree. I actually don’t mind the summer but it’s not. Y favorite. I’d hate living anywhere that didn’t have seasons and snow

        3. I agree brad on the girls, LOL. No with everything. Winter had its chance and it was a dud, it happens. But now it is transition time. Like I said I grew up on the beach and have always loved the summer. Everything you said I like. The warmer the better, and I work outside. People in the trades who work outside all winter enjoyed a nice mild winter. For the people who work outside you know what I mean. I start teaching the kids how to play baseball this weekend, I want some nice weather for us. How can you not be thinking of nice warm days.

          1. Give me 10 to 15 ninety degree days, 4 months worth of 70 to 85F weather, about a month’s worth of solid cold, about 30 inches of snow and try to avoid those springtime stagnant low pressures that can get stuck south of us and I think I’m pretty happy. 🙂

            3. You of all people want the nice warm temps for summer. You bust your but all year to teach the kids. Summer is your reward. I have the highest respect for all teachers. Thank you.

              1. Thanks John….it’s been great to have the summer’s to camp and travel after working in the corporate world for several years after graduating college and having 2 weeks off per year. The first summer, I almost felt a bit guilty, but not anymore 🙂

        4. i have to agree with you Brad. Do not get me wrong i love snow but i like the summer weather as well. I want 30s or lower durring the winter december through march then 50s-70s april then 70s and 80s in june then 85 or higher with those afternoon thunderstorms durring june to september then october through november 40s to 60s. THE ONLY TIME THAT I DO NOT WANT SNOW THE MOST IS OCTOBER!!!!!!!

          1. You get rid of the humidity on the majority of those days and I’ll go with your scenario Matt. And If we don’t have snow in October that’s ok as long as I lose power at least once a year for 3 days

            Speaking of power did I remind everyone earth hour is Saturday 8:30-9:30

                1. To not have power for three days. If you do not have a generator the food would go bad. And with the cost of food so high I would not want that.

    1. Mid April sounds about right. After 20 years, I really don’t expect much decent weather consistently until after patriots day.

  41. They are off shore, but what looked like some light showers on the north shore seem to have bubbled up into heavier, convective looking showers out in Boston Harbor.

  42. I really think I can take about any type of weather except those days in June we seem to get. You know the ones. 10 days of 50’s, raw, wet, cold, cloudy and dreary. Those are the absolute, without a doubt, the worst. Really, those are the kind of weather stretches that make me loathe New England.

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