Saturday February 22 2025 Forecast (7:57AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Over the next several days, you’ll experience a temperature moderation, but a “modified moderation”, so to speak, due to much of the region having a few to several inches of an ice-crusted snow cover. This reflects a lot of incoming sunlight back to space and doesn’t allow it to do as efficient a job at heating, despite its higher / increasing angle. So a high temperature that would have been 50, for example, in a bare ground situation, may only be 46 or 47. But still, we will be moderating, and those 40+ temps are coming to much of the region early next week, even as early as tomorrow in the coastal plain where the snow cover is the thinnest or incomplete. But even today, still a chilly one, won’t feel as cold as recent days with somewhat less wind. We’ll see some patchy clouds around early today then abundant sun as the weather is controlled by a high pressure area to the south (Mid Atlantic Coast). A moisture-starved disturbance will move through our region tonight and early Sunday with lots of clouds, but no precipitation. These clouds break for sun during Sunday midday and afternoon as high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast, but despite it being a few degrees “warmer” that today, it won’t feel it due to a kick-up in the breeze once again. Looking ahead, our mild interlude is good for 3 additional days, Monday through Wednesday, during which time it will be mostly fair, but variably cloudy. We will stand the chance to see a brief rain or snow shower late Monday and a better chance at a few rain showers later Tuesday from a couple disturbances passing to our north, and a cold front swinging through the region early Wednesday will probably produce only some clouds, but will also mark the end of our brief break (more in the next section, after the detailed forecast).

TODAY: Limited sun morning / abundant sun afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds morning / sun and clouds afternoon. Highs 36-43, mildest along the coast. Wind SW 10-15 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing late-day rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower, mainly north. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Colder trend. Watching two potential low pressure impacts for snow/mix/rain chances February 27-28, and March 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Highest potential for unsettled weather March 5-6, again March 8. Temperatures below normal.

56 thoughts on “Saturday February 22 2025 Forecast (7:57AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    1,093 ❄️

    Also, leave it to the WBZ Weather Team to come up with yet another stat:

    This is the first “weekend” in February with NO snow for Boston and the entire area. ❄️

        1. I can’t call accumulation vs. no accumulation 7 and 8 days in advance. Check back on that one.

          Point is: There’s a storm threat that includes the chance of frozen precipitation March 1 and/or 2, as it stands now.

          Had this threat window in place for several days.

          Going to do this the way I always have done it. Refinements will be made as it gets closer to that time.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 17 here last night. We just experienced a pretty cold week.

    1. We’re experiencing a pretty cold winter, in fact.

      over -3F departure at Boston. That’ll come back a bit into the -2’F’s during this final stretch of days, but still will land in the negative for the 3rd straight month. March may very well make it #4 as we go back to generally below for the first 15 to 20 days (overall) and may only recover to seasonable thereafter.

      1. Funny thing, to me it just feels like an average Winter (or how I remember them), even though I know full well it is Below average. Weird.

        1. I have been thinking the same. If that is a 30 year average only, it would explain it. If not it sure feels like what a friend said…an old fashioned New England winter.

      2. Regarding March, do you see any extreme cold or significant snow storms on the horizon. I am not sure about the potential snow you mentioned on the 8th. At least with climatology kicking in, temps can be below normal and comfortably above freezing. I know it’s early but wondered about the big picture. Thanks.

  6. Thanks TK
    I believe this will be the 53rd straight day BOS high temperature has remained below 50 degrees. As Philip pointed out on the previous blog December 31, 2024 was the last time BOS had a high temperature of 50 or higher.

    1. The record from Dec 1968 to March 1969 is safe (99 days). 🙂 But if Logan misses 50 this upcoming “warm-up”, and I think they may, it can extend for a while still. Eventually, climatology will catch up, either way.

  7. The Mount Washington Cog Railway Cam is another favorite of mine. I looked at it last night (around 1:00 a.m.) and it was snowing moderately with little visibility beyond the camera and the nearby lighting. I just looked again (9:00 a.m.) and they have bright sunshine, and just as I looked a train had departed, not for the summit, but for a look-out spot about 4,000 feet up the mountain. They don’t travel to the top during their “winter season”, as conditions are often too harsh and the tracks impassable, or too dangerous to keep passable for whatever brief periods of time they could. So they take rides up here for “look-out” and hot cocoa. I’d love to do this, and ride to the top of course.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-h2Yyy9RHQ

  9. Saw TV Mets posting 50F as a Tuesday high though a couple were actually cautious with their choice of words … saying it would “approach 50.”

  13. Since we have been talking here about medias reporting techniques, I thought this would show how real journalism works. The notes that I type are brief but I think can be understood

    My church book club is reading how to stand up to a dictator by Nobel prize winner Maria Ressa. She founded Rappler, a Filipino online news website. These are how it approaches news.

    Rappler. Measured used mood meter embedded in every story. a reader would click how they felt about a story. The meter Aggregated to display. Purpose …..Learn tends into how public they served responded

    The Metrics for measuring:
    Unique users
    Page views
    Time spent onsite

    Careful not to let reporters see all metrics. If they did, would they stop doing stories that mattered and pursue only ones supported by traffic. Or Would incentive from quality journalism change to click bate.

    Wanted to foster cooperation

    Produced mood reports only yearly

    Happy was the most prevalent emotion.

    Over time disinformation networks exploited greed of FB and YouTube.

    It’s a very small part of the book. But a look into how reporting can be done. Over all. What a fantastic woman

  14. There was some chatter about a flip to a warm pattern in early March, persisting. Didn’t agree with it then, don’t agree with it now. All signs point to near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation during the first three weeks of March. No changes to that long range outlook. Enjoy the brief break while it’s here. 🙂

    Also BEFORE it’s brought up, I am well aware of the sun angle and climatology. These are factored in. Any time I (or other mets) talk about below normal temps in late winter, we’re taken by some folks as if we mean persistent mid winter conditions. That’s incorrect. This is relative to what the long term averages are. I’m well aware of how to do this, since I’ve been doing it for 3+ decades. 🙂

    1. Sorry TK. Maybe I didn’t write it clearly. I meant that after a cold winter the description of below average temps might not be so negative.

      1. Oh it was just a general statement. I’ve had to establish all over the net lately that I actually know what I’m doing, not so much here. Bloggers are wicked smaht. 🙂

        But yes I knew what you meant.

  15. Beware of op runs even above and beyond the usual cautions. Next few days they are going to display some pretty major inconsistencies run-to-run as well as model-vs-model.

    Ensemble trend observation is the way to go…

    1. Even so, I am beginning to see some hints of action on the Euro. Will continue to monitor. Thank you for the reminders and warnings. 🙂

  16. Snow piles on the side of the roads that we will probably see along the St Patrick’s day parade routes.

  17. Was just out to Legacy Place in Dedham.
    2 obervations:

    1. Jamaica Pond, very close to my location, is frozen solid from end to end. Have not seen this in years.
    2. The Charles River from West Roxbury to Dedham is Frozen Solid. Can’t remember the last time I have seen this.

    In the past I have Ice fished on the Charles and also skated on it. Wouldn’t want to do that now. 🙂

    1. They have been ice fishing out here for a bit this winter. In and off. I noticed snowmobile tracks in a larger pond/lake. Nice to see

    2. I drive by the Jamaica Pond all the time and it’s been rare in the last 30 to freeze. It’s rock solid right now.

    3. Horn Pond here in Woburn has had a lot of ice fishing going on. And my son and I walked out to the island a few weeks ago. We took a route that is covered by only a few feet of water, so that spot would be the “safest” in the event of a break. Although the ice was over 6 inches thick at that point. We were not even remotely close to going through.

      1. I had to do a double take when you said “walked” to the island. According to JR, the minimum of ice safe to walk on is 4 inches. Amazing that it’s been a number of years since outdoor ice activities have been able to take place consistently. Back in my day, it seemed like most every winter. With the new climate change, it’s probably going to be more of a “treat” every few years and no longer commonplace. Oh well. Living in the city I never had the opportunity anyway. 🙂

        I imagine next weekend this time that ice on your local pond will be just a memory. 🙂

        1. I remember plenty of unfrozen ponds in my “growing up” winters too, but we haven’t iced over this completely in quite a while.

          1. When I was a kid, I honestly cannot remember a Winter
            where we did NOT have skating on local ponds. Not a single one. Now a long time has passed since then, so who knows how clear my memory is, but I cannot dredge up a Winter without the skating.

            AND we usually started rather early, like sometimes the 1st week in December. We skated on a pond that was only about 4 or 5 feet deep at the deepest point, so It froze rather quickly.

            1. I also cannot remember no ice. Years ago, I spoke with family in both fryeburg and Stowe who spent every winter in both places. Ponds were always frozen But then we had only one Christmas vacation with no skiing. That was mid 60s.

        2. I’d hate to tell at what ice thickness I have skated on.
          And it was a lot LESS then 4 inches. 🙂
          Oh sure, I fell through many times, but the pond was shallow, much like what TK mentions.

      2. I grew up by a small lake (1 mile circumference) in Rensselaer, NY. Most years the town would plow the snow off the ice with pickup trucks.

        1. Awesome. I spent the best part of my youth in north Conway and after skiing we headed to my uncles in Lovell pond in fryeburg Maine to skate. We’d shovel skating space. Once married we’d skate on the pond at Mac’s uncles in Stowe. We shoveled there too. Fryeburg was frozen each winter. Stowe was at first but then not always once into the 80s

          I have to say I like the idea of plowing better than shoveling

  18. Nice to see the MJO outlook in agreement between ECMWF & GFS ensembles.

    This is good news if you want to add to the snow totals before the end of the season, bad news if you don’t. 😉

    1. Would love to see normal snowfall for Boston (49.2”) AND beating Worcester for seasonal total, even if it’s by just 0.1”. 😉 ❄️

    1. I saw earlier. An asthmatic episode / sepsis is so difficult at his age

      He’s been on my mind and in my prayers so much lately. He is an amazing man.

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