Sunday July 6 2025 Forecast (7:58AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

An area of high pressure slides offshore today while aloft the wind blows moderately from the northwest. Your Sunday starts off with moderate humidity and sunshine filtered by high clouds moving through in the aforementioned upper level flow. These high clouds thin out allowing brighter sun, while the offshore high starts to deliver higher dew point air to the region and the temperature heats up as the day goes on, turning what was a comfortable morning into a much less comfortable ending to the day. At least there is zero rain chance, making it a clean sweep of three rain-free days for the holiday weekend. Things are about to change, however. During Monday, high pressure sits offshore to our southeast, continuing to deliver high dew point air. Meanwhile, low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley will begin to push a cold front our way. Additionally, tropical moisture from the remains of Chantal (a tropical storm coming ashore this morning in northern South Carolina) will be heading northeastward around the periphery of offshore high pressure. The increase in low level moisture combined with the fact we’ll still be in a fairly hot air mass will lead to the development of tropical showers of the isolated to scattered variety, perhaps a non-severe isolated thunderstorm or two in the region s well during Monday afternoon and early evening. However, these should fade / dissipate with the setting sun Monday evening. Tuesday will be a more unsettled day with more cloud cover, less heat (still fairly warm), high humidity, and much better shower / t-storm chances. Expect a ribbon of moisture associated with the remains of Chantal to bring some heavier showers and potential thunderstorms to southeastern areas of the WHW forecast area, particularly eastern CT, RI, and mostly east of I-95 in MA during Tuesday morning over a period of a few to several hours. This should be followed by a pause, then additional showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the region, but starting to the west and north and moving to the south and east with time, as the cold front moves across the region. This front should get far enough to the southeast to bring this activity to an end by early Wednesday morning after lingering into Tuesday night. The daytime hours of Wednesday look dry, mild, and moderately humid as a very small and weak area of high pressure noses in from the Gulf of Maine. As we head into midweek, the jet stream to our north will sink a little to the south, establishing a weak zonal flow pattern aloft. During this time, the next trough / disturbance will approach from the west, and it looks like a surface low pressure wave will travel along a frontal boundary still to our south, held there by high pressure in eastern Canada. This would be a mainly cloudy, occasionally wet, and cooler set up here for Thursday.

TODAY: Sun filtered by high clouds morning / brighter sun afternoon hours. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 South Coast and 73-80 Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 68-75, warmest in urban centers. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Any early isolated showers dissipate. Shower/thunderstorm chances increases especially east of I-95 overnight. Lows 71-78. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA early, then redeveloping from northwest to southeast midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 70+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower early in the day, favoring eastern areas. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

Continued easterly air flow and unsettled weather with shower chances July 11, then a transition to fair weather over the July 12-13 weekend (still a shower / t-storm chance July 12) with slightly warmer and humid weather. Watching another potential disturbance to the south to bring mild, high humidity, unsettled weather to the region early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Heading through the remainder of mid July the strongest indications are for a pattern favoring a weak jet stream near or just north of the region, surface high pressure dominant in eastern Canada and low pressure dominant to our south. This leaves the region vulnerable to unsettled weather at times but without sustained major heat being a threat.

106 thoughts on “Sunday July 6 2025 Forecast (7:58AM)”

    1. I believe that for Tuesday, maybe even Monday on rainfall. The dps are projected to be in the 70s.

      12z HRRR projected dps for tomorrow morning

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025070612&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      00z euro dps for Tuesday

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025070600&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      00z GFS precipitable water values for Tuesday

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=pwat&rh=2025070600&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. 101F in Boston that day. 3rd 100F+ reading in the last 4 days of that amazing stretch.

      Jokingly, it was probably 85F where the sensor is nowadays. I’m guessing this value was from somewhere near the state house. That doesn’t diminish the reading at all.

    2. July 1911 in Nashua:

      7/1 92/56
      7/2 97/67
      7/3 105/72
      7/4 106/76 (106 is the NH state record)
      7/5 105/72
      7/6 103/78 (2.14″ of rain)
      7/7 87/72
      7/8 90/57
      7/9 96/62
      7/10 103/70
      7/11 102/74
      7/12 99/72
      7/13 90/63

      6 days over 100 and another at 99. Brutal.

  7. I think the biggest thing working against me on Wordle is my vocabulary knowledge isn’t the most expansive, so when I get 3 letters say, I’m thinking of options, but then, I know it can’t be those because a previous guess has eliminated a required letter. That’s ok, this game will improve the scope of my vocabulary. 🙂

    1. I have three letter after three guesses and am stumped again. Oddly it often seems difficult to me when I have three even though my Mind wants to think it’s easier. I’ll get back to it after church

      2. I actually got today’s word, but it took me 5 guesses.
        I had a word I didn’t know existed. Had to look it up, as I also had to do for the final answer. Pretty hard one today, imho.

    2. Part of problem as well. I was more into science, so I didn’t read much and my vocabulary suffered for sure. But through work experience it has improved greatly. I think my bigger problem is the way my brain is wired. It just sees a bunch of mixed up letters and has a problem putting them together to make sense. Part of the problem may be my approach. I continually work on that, hoping to hit upon something that works for me.

      I’ll keep trying. Fun game, if not very frustrating at times.

      1. Sometimes I try something that seems like a bad idea, and maybe is. I really don’t know.

        Say I have a yellow R in the first slot after the first guess. I might try guessing something like WORRY, assuming that makes sense with the results of the first guess. It could be a bad move to repeat the R, but maybe it’s worth it to increase the chances of locating it.

        It took me four today.

        1. I don’t think it is so bad. I have tried something similar, but I have NOT had your success. 🙂

    3. My focus for the work I did was vocabulary and technology from the understanding side and more so from the application side.

      Today’s word was tough. Took me five and only through elimination

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Humidity. Dew point. Worse swear words than the one that begin with f.

    For those interested, my latest Forbes articles feature vaccines, ZYN nicotine pouches, smoking cessation products, drug prices, pharmacy benefit manager reform, HIV prevention drugs, Make America Healthy Again promises and pitfalls: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

  14. Happy birthday SSK. 🙂

    82 here so far, not exactly a formula for 90, is it?
    However, as TK indicated, the heat builds during the afternoon,
    so I expect that temperature to rise significantly. We shall see.

  16. I’ve been reading on the meteorology setup for the tragic flooding event in Texas.

    Complicated setup, some of which went right over my head.

    Something to the effect of the convergence of northerly flow aloft over Texas meeting up with big moisture aloft moving north from what was Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche.

    My big picture takeaway is the tropics have already had a big effect on the weather.

    My heart really goes out to those campers and their families as well as many other lives lost. Devastating.

    1. It was a combination of several things, which by coincidence occurred directly at the top of a rise leading to an area very prone to flooding.

      This is not the first time there. In 1987 there was a similar event that washed away a boys camp. Many of them survived, but some were lost.

      That area is a well known flood plain. The largest floods, of course, are going to be very rare, because you need a specific combo of several things to take place. This time it did.

      Some people have blamed NWS staffing issues for this, but those claims are completely unfounded. The NWS had warnings for a major flood event out several hours before it occurred. It seems like somewhere along the line those warnings were either not communicated or not heeded. The tragedy (life loss) could have been largely avoided, as it looks.

      1. I am absolutely not placing blame. That would be just plain wrong.

        Thank you for this discussion.

        I wondered about Nws. Is it possible for any of its instrumentation to show/predict a flood of that proportion. I read from a 34 inch rise in 5 hours to 20-26 inches in 90 minutes.

        Do we know if the area has sirens since it is prone to flooding?

        Was there a way for the warnings to reach these folks or is the area too remote?

    1. HMON / CMC – really just a remnant low and tropical moisture plume.

      Early Tuesday event for far southeastern New England.

      1. Some have us getting a brush but most seem to be RI, Cape and Islands. Same as you.

  19. Red Sox won its 10,000th game yesterday. 🙂

    Is #10,001 later today expecting a bit too much? 😉

  20. Interesting that heat of 1911 occurred decades before our current global warming.

    1. Rain delay over. That might of been the fastest rain delay in the history of the MLB!

  25. Very interesting comments from an ex-NOAA head. He did not blame cuts for TX flooding and explained why. But I absolutely believe what is he predicting is where we are heading. As an aside, I’d bet neither NOOA or NWS will hesitate to openly blame for any one incident for fear of retribution/more cuts. I stopped listening when Noem started go speak.

    https://youtu.be/-O2nO60wXuU?si=1qC3iaZfUXEM3pYn

    1. Noem spews utter nonsense. She has the mental capacity of a rock!!

      Sad days now and ahead! What a shame!

      1. There have been off-and-on debates about how smart she is. To me, she has been overrated. Noem is known as the “puppy killer” after shooting her own dog. There has been back-and-forth discussions on that too.

        This is not meant to be a political comment at all, but from what I have seen and heard, I believe she suffers from delusions of adequacy. I would seriously say that about her regardless of her political affiliation.

    2. Wow!! he certainly tells it like it is. I commend him!
      Thank you for sharing.

      1. My pleasure. I came across it accidentally but he made absolute sense based on what I’ve read and our local Mets have said.

  28. now 91 here, dp 70

    Did I say YUCK? Well let me say it again…. YUCK!!!

    TK is probably doing hand stands out in the yard loving this weather!! He and SSK can have it. I’m with Joshua on this one.

  29. Has anyone watched Castle? My granddaughter who is interested in criminal justice had me watching the rookie. I loved it. And have been struggling to find another series to binge. I finished west wing for the second time yesterday. My granddaughter suggested Castle. One episode in and I like it

      1. I couldn’t get into lincoln lawyer. My girls really like it too. I’ll have to try again. Thank you for both

  32. Fun with numbers. A “100 year flood” means that it has a 1 in 100 chance of happening in any given year. There are approximately 250,000 rivers in the US. That means, on average, a “100 year flood” should occur roughly 2500 times per year across the country.

    1. Imagine how that compounds when you add in the pollution man has caused that stretches to every corner of the land, water and sky

      1. This is strictly math, nothing else.

        However, CO2 is NOT pollution. Without it, there are no plants.

        1. Climate warming happens. Science shows that our pollution (certainly not limited to CO2) is fact and is exacerbating what would otherwise be a normal occurrence . While weather may bd an expertise you have, pollution was my husbands field of expertise. We can table the discussion.

  33. Really raining at the PGA tournament right now. Being held in the Quad cities area, IL.

  35. I predict my high temperature will occur between 5 and 6 PM.
    Just the way it has been going lately. 🙂

  36. Thank you for the Birthday wishes . I did an estimate in Halifax this morning & sat by the pool all afternoon

  37. Poor reporting circulating social media. If you see a story about a plane crash off Nantucket, don’t share it. If you see a story about a small plane making an emergency landing on a beach there, with no injuries, you can share that one, because it’s correct.

  38. Visited Mom earlier. Maybe a little tiny step backwards today…

    The C02 continues to be a little elevated so they are playing around with oxygen etc. to see if they can get that more regulated.

    Also some abnormal #’s found in bloodwork related to liver function, so they are working on finding a cause there.

    Otherwise she’s resting (sleeping a lot, but was up for a while). Transfer to rehab is on hold until they get the above 2 things in a more satisfactory condition.

    2. Hope they can give you answers quickly. Always important in healthcare. Also of course hope all turns out well!

  39. You’ll see rain icons slathered all over media for the next 5 days, but we’re not actually going to rain that often (and in many areas not all that much) during this stretch of time.

    While it is true some areas will likely see heavy downpours a time or two, many will not, and the total “it’s raining” hours will be far less than 50% of the time Monday through Friday for pretty much any given location.

    1. That always seems true! There is always a push to make news out of normal or less than normal precipitation!

  42. Looks like high temps are landing right where I expected them to.

    Dew points are generally 65 to 69 across the region – pretty uniform. Bedford is giving a reading of 70, but I believe their dew point reading is incorrect — too high by about 2 degrees — and has been that way often during the last few years. There are no 70+ dew points in SNE at the moment, with the exception of southwestern CT.

    1. I walked around outside for a few minutes and it felt pretty good actually. The breeze helps and I’m probably used to warm/hot temperatures now. I have felt far worse.

      Will I feel different tomorrow walking outside?

      1. The breeze is quite nice. After my visit the hospital and the grocery store, which both had ice box AC, walking outside around my local pond in the heat with a nice breeze felt pretty nice.

        Tomorrow, the dew point will be higher (70+) but to compensate, the wind will be a little bit stronger with more prominent gusts. So, not all that different, especially since there may end up being less sun, especially in the afternoon.

  43. TK – How significant will Chantal’s moisture be for southeastern sections on Tuesday?

    1. Marginally significant in a kind of localized way. Might be some street flooding in some areas. Based on current trends, I’d say the highest chance of this is the Outer Cape and Islands.

  44. TK – Sorry about your mother’s setback. Hope she gets back on track soon! 🙂

    1. They are working hard on it!
      She was sitting up again for dinner, which is good. COPD has become official as one of her diagnoses.But yeah, we pretty much knew that anyway.

  45. It’s odd that Kristi Noem is in Texas. But it doesn’t mean her presence there is wrong.

    My issues have less to do with Noem than cuts in the NOAA. Could it be more efficient? Yes. Every organization, government or private, could do with some reform. But I think the process of budget cuts has been arbitrary while the reductions themselves are far too steep. I feel similarly about the NIH. Being prepared with contingency planning – whether it’s the nation’s defense, its police and firefighters, its meteorological infrastructure, its basic research and science – is not about efficiency.

  46. I’m not always a fan of D.T.’s communication style, but I completely agree with him here…

    This is regarding what happened in Texas, in terms of weather, forecasting and response.

    The link is from a different meteorologist.

    “The National Weather Service in Central and Southern Texas did its job And so did the local TV media.

    The people who didn’t do their job were of course the Texas local officials. Even the Texas Department of Emergency Management has come out and said they received ample one the night before of extreme flooding being a possibility since it’s happened before on this River back in 2015.

    When disaster hits always blame the weather forecast. Indeed we saw the same thing with the Buffalo blizzard back on Christmas a few years ago or the governor of New York blamed the local NWS forecast out of Buffalo for not predicting the event when in fact it was predicted two days almost 3 days ahead of time.”

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/9g5AnqQ827F184w9A

    1. I am hearing that from every corner. DT is well coached and propped. He’d never blame nws or noaa because it would call attention to his cuts. Am I cynical? Maybe. But the individual is remarkably transparent. 😉

      1. You absolutely will. That was never my point. And I am hearing the very same from every professional. Nws did its job. My point was that even if it were due to the cuts, T would never admit it. As far as his blaming officials, that might be true. But that’s to be decided by proper authorities and not him.

  49. I just saw SAKs 2011 temps above. I believe it was June 2011 that was Very similar to June 1982. Cold and drizzly.

  50. Well, that was interesting from the 00z HRRR for Tuesday. Low-mid 90s. Hmmmmm ….

    1. 00z NAM is near 90F and this model is too cool by a couple degrees because it’s dps are too high.

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