Thursday August 21 2025 Forecast (8:41AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

Today’s sky will feature some cloudiness, but it won’t be a bad weather day. Initially, lingering clouds from yesterday’s unsettled weather sit mainly south of I-90 while another batch of clouds wheeled in off the ocean to the north and will drift southwestward across a portion of the region this morning. Meanwhile, the high cloud shield from Hurricane Erin well to our south southeast will begin to at least partially overspread our sky during the day (may lead to a nice sunset later for at least southeastern MA / RI). This cloud shield will be at maximum tonight before retreating eastward Friday as Erin makes its closest pass early then accelerates away later (same idea as described on yesterday’s update). No changes to the expectation of larger ocean swells and rough surf – high rip current risk for anyone in the water – so advice is not to go in far enough to be impacted by those if you are at the shore. Cooler than average temps continue today and Friday, though today will be the cooler of those two. Then we get a nice weekend with a warm-up. Humidity will be low Saturday along with light wind and some light coastal sea breezes. Sunday’s humidity will be moderate with a stronger southerly wind developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing on this front still looks late enough to hold the shower and potential thunderstorm chance off until Sunday evening or night, and then Monday will be an unsettled day as that front moves through and additional moisture comes up from the south.

TODAY: Patchy low and middle clouds mixed with sun in the morning. Sunshine dimmed at times, especially southeast, by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Considerable high cloudiness. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston including higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Limited sun early with lots of high clouds, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH Cape Cod, including higher gusts during the morning, shifting to N and gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, a bit cooler at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point climbs into the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

Turning dry and cooler August 26-27. Next disturbance / front may bring a shower or t-storm August 28 before fair weather returns later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure dominates with fair weather and modest warm-up August 31 & September 1. Unsettled weather about September 2 before fair, mild weather returns.

61 thoughts on “Thursday August 21 2025 Forecast (8:41AM)”

  1. I’m going to to a bit of NHC’s work for them…

    The system east of the Lesser Antilles should have an INVEST #.
    The system west of Africa is probably a TD already, but they haven’t declared it as one.
    Also, it’s possible that another TD exists over the open water to the north of the first disturbance I mentioned and far to the east of Erin.
    Somebody is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. 😉

      1. Right? This is kind of lazy for people who like to name cumulus clouds. 😉

          1. Staffing is ok. I just figure maybe hyper focus on Erin? But the thing is, they never used to do that. It doesn’t take all that much to cover them all. I used to do it singlehandedly for my shipping forecasts in the private sector – for the entire world.

            2. I suspect you are correct about focus on Erin which is understandable. But there were 1300 layoffs..probationary and permanent since Feb and March. It was short staffed to begin with.

    2. Thank you. You might want to keep that NHC hat handy thanks to the NOAA cuts by the administration. We will need to rely more on our meteorologists.

  6. I had five for Wordle today. It took putting it aside at about 12:30 and revisiting this am.

  8. Thanks Tk . I am going to my old Neighborhood beach in marshfield on Saturday, it’s been yrs since I’ve sat on it & I can’t wait as the weather looks good .

  9. A couple day wait until Saturday to see if Fairfield CT wins the U.S. Championship. The winner of the South Carolina Nevada game will play Fairfield Saturday. Unbelievable comeback in extra innings for South Carolina down 6-1 in the 7th score 6 runs to beat South Dakota 7-6.

  10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    There’s a pattern change coming. No, doesn’t mean we’re going to get hot.

    But the PNA reflects the ridging and hot western North America the models show down the road.

    The AO and NAO both trending towards positive or slightly positive also reflect a smaller change than the large PNA teleconnections change.

  12. It looks like we got a little over 1″ of rain yesterday here in Williamsburg, MA. It’s back to the amazing weather this morning! We will soon be hiking at the nearby Mt Tom Reservation in Holyoke.

    I got Wordle in 4 today.

      1. Yes, I do.

        I think it’s a cleverly constructed game. I like the way that they come up words that could belong to several different sets, so you have to take your time playing.

        1. I have a love hate relationship with connections so go thru spurts of doing it.

          I wondered if JPD might like it

    1. MJO is unfavorable for the next 10-14 days, which is why nearly all the models have the Atlantic quiet after early next week.

      Things should start to get active again towards the 2nd week of September when the MJO returns to a favorable phase.

        1. But in this case it’s specifically the MJO that will help. The conditions in the Atlantic are not that great this season overall.

          There were a handful of meteorologists who have been talking about that but have been overshadowed and squelched by “other stuff”. 🙂

  17. Pretty Healthy breeze out there and I am 6 miles inland and an awfully long way from Erin’s center. 🙂

  20. Going into a two week period of unfavorable conditions for good tropical development. There can be five zillion disturbances, but if the conditions suck, they’re not going to do all that much.

    Should improve again toward season’s peak, which is about September 10. After that, we’re half way home.

    Hampton Beach was great today. It was a bit cool and the breeze was steady from the northeast, but being in the sun was very comfortable. If you were in the shade, a light jacket worked well.

    Spent 5 hours there (6 if you include brunch). 🙂

    Tomorrow it’s a ride on the Downeaster to Old Orchard Beach. 🙂

  21. CPC has lots of below normal temps again 6-10 / 8-14.

    They should be adjusting some of their longer range outlooks to a cooler regime soon. They’re very shy about doing that initially.

    1. Just hope one week from today is nice weather as I’ll be in Nantucket for 24hrs

  22. Logan’s had three 90+ days this month but are running a temp departure of -2.1F (it will be lower after today) for August.

    Hartford is at -1.7F.
    Providence is at -2.8F.
    Worcester had been running a slight positive departure but is now at -0.1F and heading down.

    A few weeks ago I said the trend for August is cool. Guess what. The trend for August is cool.

  23. It has been a nice break this month from the heat and humidity this month. The one week we dealt with heat and humidity this month was tolerable.

  25. Great SC Nevada game. SC always holds a special place in my heart. But there is way too much talent in these teams to root against anyone.

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