Sunday October 5 2025 Forecast (7:31AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

No significant changes on this Sunday update from what’s been here the last couple of days. High pressure parks itself to our south the next few days with a continuation of the current warm spell, with fair weather. This morning is a little cool as a clear sky and light wind allowed for good radiational cooling, but we’ll warm up decently today, and then a lesser version of cooling takes place tonight and especially tomorrow night as we start to establish a more prominent southwesterly wind across the region. This also drives temps back up each day, with Monday probably being the warmest day for the region overall. An approaching trough sends more clouds into the region later Tuesday, and a cold front and associated band of showers will cross the region some time during the first 12 hours of Wednesday – timing to be refined further as the next few days go by. This will introduce a much cooler air mass later Wednesday and Thursday with the return of dry weather.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83 though a little cooler along the coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, again a little cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight. Chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning. A sun/cloud mix in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Leaning toward a moisture-starved front going by sometime late next week (~October 11) with just some clouds, but the shower threat staying to the north. Also watching a low pressure area to our south, but expecting it to stay far enough south to keep rain away, but maybe toss some clouds into the region mid period. Otherwise, looking generally dry with a bit of temperature variability but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Previous hints of more trough / unsettled weather in this part of the country are less prominent on medium range guidance, so leaning toward a continued dry pattern and monitoring trends going forward. Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

66 thoughts on “Sunday October 5 2025 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Up to 50 from a low of 49. 49 DP also. I much prefer the colder nights than what we will have Tuesday overnight

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    54 over night, currently 56

    Ocean temp: 62 (Boston Buoy)

    Wordle: 3

      1. 4 is very good.
        HAD zilch on 1st guess.
        Went for all the marbles and guessed a word I thought of last night. Oh well, I gave it a shot. I deserved zilch.
        3 letters in position on 2nd guess. Piece of cake from there.

      2. When I got 3, somehow I KNEW you would get it in 2.
        Just knew it. btw, If I used my usual starting word, I would have had it in 2, but I was a smart ass trying to get it in 1.

    1. Oh, you are in Maine ! I thought maybe your phone had some fun yesterday and changed Pembroke to Poland. Glad you got such great weather !!

            2. I said Friday where I was Poland Maine, it’s where my folks live . It’s a 3 hour ride from pembroke .it was absolutely perfect weather & yesterday it was almost hot .

  6. Really strong dry signals in the seasonal guidance (CFS & CanSIPS) for the next several months (through February).

    The chilly signals are still there but not as prominently as the previous couple runs.

      1. Doesn’t bode well for an above average snow season or even average. BUT I do believe we were below average precipitation during the snow blitz in 2015 ( I could be wrong on this, but I swear I remember that), so perhaps there is still some hope.

        1. The 2015 snow blitz period (late January to early March) had about “normal” precipitation for the period but WELL ABOVE normal snowfall.

          By the same logic, a drier than average winter can easily produce near to above normal snowfall. We’d have it happen. It’s not as uncommon as you might think, especially if the overall pattern is cold.

          Time will tell, but the dry signal is definitely strong and the cold signal is significant enough to be mentioned.

  8. I love any movie/series/show concerning time travel.
    I found another one with a different twist to time travel.
    It’s called The Way Home

    Unfortunately, it is a Hallmark production and I LOATHE hallmark, but I put up with some of the shitty acting because
    I wanted to see how it went. Pretty nifty little story going on there. I am at the beginning of season 2 now. It is a bit slow in places, but it should keep your interest if you go for this sort of thing.

    Available on Netflix.

    1. Hey hey hey. Big hallmark fan here. I don’t watch for quality although some of the actors are quite good. I watch for quiet comfort. For the record, I couldn’t get into the way home.

      1. I know that type of show is not for everyone.
        As I said, I am really into these type of shows. 🙂

        1. I’m just teasing. I absolutely understand. I’m
          Not into time travel but there are a couple of time travel hallmark movies that I really like.

          1. InaccuCrapola was hyping an isolated shower off the coast of Florida the other day as if it was going to turn into a cyclone and destroy the state this weekend.

            How did that go? 😉

            We’re approaching the end of the active middle section of hurricane season now. The large scale pattern does favor that system (95L) to develop out there, but never threaten the US.

  14. 73 at Logran with an active East wind.

    East wind has just reached here, but it has made it to 80 once again.

  15. I caught the last bit of the first half for your Cowboys, JimmyJames. Wow two 90+ yard drives. I am Rooting for a win for you.

    I’ll have a bit of trouble with the chiefs buffalo game. Although I’m sure I’ll root for buffalo as I’ve always liked them. I know folks here don’t like the chiefs and that is absolutely all right. We all have those teams. I can’t stand the jets. My grandson is such a huge swiftie that I cannot help but admire what Travis and Taylor do for others. Doesn’t mean I’m not a Pats fan. I have never had a problem shooing for the best for teams my friends follow.

    1. I was wrong again. I looked up the chiefs game fit my grandson and then the Pats for me. I had the bills with the wrong team. 🙁

  16. Thanks TK.

    The 12z Euro says “so long, drought!” about a week from now. Likely? Probably not, although its AI companion happens to agree with it as well. I think the bigger takeaway is that pattern predictability for the East Coast, which has been pretty high lately, kinda falls off a cliff by early next week. Major question marks both in the Pacific and the Atlantic that leave a lot of options on the table for the middle portion of this month.

    Always a fun time of year for forecasting. It’s really the only short window of time (October) during the year that you can get meaningful interactions between deep tropical features and mid-latitude storms. Time will tell how it plays out this year 🙂

    1. Two times during the past 4 or 5 weeks the medium range (ECMWF included) has flipped our pattern to quite wet in its late stages, and both were failed projections. I’m of the opinion that the third time will not be the charm. Leaning dry again. 🙂

      Also, very true about October!

  17. TK – I am still puzzled as to how an overall dry pattern can produce even normal snowfalls with obviously no moisture supply.

    Can you give past examples when we received decent snows in very dry patterns?

    1. You can have below normal precipitation yet if most everything falls as snow, you can have above normal snowfall.

      It’s happened many times over stretches of some winters.

      2015 is an example in that it was relatively “dry” for how “above normal” the snowfall was. Astronomically above normal snowfall amounts with near normal precipitation. It’s the same thing as having above normal snow and below normal precipitation.

  18. The Yankees are facing a real MLB lineup now and their pitching suddenly looks a little different than it did vs the Red Sox

  19. So, I will come out and say it. I have been increasingly leaning on the GFS a bit more in recent weeks for SNE weather guidance. First with its MOS temps which have been very good. If you asked me today, which 12z guidance has a better frail grasp on the upcoming mid term pattern evolution, than the other, I would lean to towards the GFS.

    What has frustrated me is forecasters who jump on whatever is the most recent run of the ECMWF and announce its verbatim prognostications as likely outcomes. It does not help that most apps now use the 00z and 12z ECMWF as their forecast output and its recent run to run volatility has caused a lot “looks like 4 days of rain coming” followed on the next run by “looks like 4 days of record warmth statements from the public.

    I think the pattern is generally dry. A frontal passage very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with a general 0.25-0.5” of rain, a cool down, then a warm, and then repeat. With each cool down and each warm up getting a little more cold and a little less warm, as purely a function of the calendar and climatology.

    1. The ECMWF has been struggling more lately. The GFS is still showing some of its biases in a strong way, but I’m pretty much on auto-pilot now with those. MOS is better, yes.

      Totally agree on the pattern upcoming…

  21. They could just stand on the field and pass the ball
    Back and forth. Fewer penalties and injuries

  23. The Patriots have won back-to-back games for the first time since 2022.

    The Patriots are 2-0 in the AFC East for the first time since 2019.

    🙂

    1. Only issue I had was the number of penalties on both sides of the ball at the worst possible time. Fortunately they were able to overcome them.

      In the future they had better clean those up!

Comments are closed.