Sunday October 19 2025 Forecast (6:56AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure drifts offshore today and a southerly air flow develops and strengthens. This will make a cool, calm morning (with a nice sunrise including a crescent moon and venus while it was still dark enough) into a breezy, warmer midday and afternoon with plenty of sunshine, though clouds will start to increase later ahead of our next bout of unsettled weather. This is due to a trough and low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes, and its frontal system which will march our way from the west tonight into Monday, and develop a new low pressure area on it. This will bring a band of rain into the region that will move through but can also produce a few additional showers as the new low wraps up and passes through Upstate NY into southeastern Canada later Monday. A narrow area of high pressure brings fair weather Tuesday, but with the mean trough position still over the Great Lakes and Northeast, the next low pressure system will quickly move in for another showery day on Wednesday. This set-up looks similar to Monday but a little less potent on the low pressure area. Fair weather arrives for Thursday behind that system.

TODAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds later the day. Highs 65-72. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers probable west of I-95 by daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely including the slight chance of a thunderstorm morning and midday, then breaking clouds and partial sun but with a chance of an additional rain shower afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning showers. Breaking clouds midday on with additional rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A weak trough / front can bring a shower October 24 before high pressure brings dry weather for the October 25-26 weekend. Another low pressure system threatens unsettled weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Large scale pattern features a low pressure trough Great Lakes / Northeast with a couple chances of unsettled weather heading from the end of October to the start of November – details TBD.

64 thoughts on “Sunday October 19 2025 Forecast (6:56AM)”

    2. Wow – I would hit the jackpot with 17″. I better get the snowblower running!

      Oh wait – that’s not snow?!

      🙂 🙂

  6. WOW!!! on Wordle

    I feel totally INFERIOR today.

    5 for me as I was hopelessly lost.

    This game sucks the life out of me!!!!!!

    SClarke probably got it in 1 today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. You are as well. We all get 5s and 6s and fails along with the 3,4 and occasional 2.

        Great job everyone

        1. Yes, but I get MORE 5s and 6s. 🙂 🙂 🙂
          I knew this game would be trouble for me before I started.
          I have had many years to know how my brain works.

          I just looked at today’s game for me. I had NO CHANCE whatsoever, until after the 4th guess and then It finally came to me. I experimented with a new starting word that got me 3 letters, all out of position. Next 2 guess yielded NOTHING more. 4th guess, was a strange word, that revealed an additional letter out of position. From there I was able to get it.

          Frustrating game.

          My results after 119 games

          https://ibb.co/FLPQt1Bm

  7. The Euro shows a 958 MB system that WAS tropical.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025101900&fh=318&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    I am no expert, but this looks to me like it would still be tropical????

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2025101900&fh=318&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Tom posted 10 days, but this is the Euro 0Z run total precip

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101900&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Would this qualify as a drought buster? Assuming, of course, it were to verify. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. At that time of year it would never be tropical this far north. At MOST it would be in transition still. More than likely post-tropical.

      Most likely: That doesn’t come close to verifying.

      2. Though I do not know exactly why, the models always seem so overcooked to me when it’s this far out.

        1. Biases tend to lean toward more of this than the opposite. It’s a limitation of modeling. The balance between trying to use the best possible resolution and going out further in time ………….

          Problem is, too many people take these operational simulations as gospel.

          One of the “high school FB mets” grabbed that one run of the GFS the other day that showed a massive hurricane coming up the East Coast.

          “Halloween will likely be cancelled all along the East Coast!” was the claim.

          Two runs later and the system is GONE. Any update to that post (that shouldn’t have been made to start with)? Nope. Nothing. Crickets.

  8. So the pattern for late October into November I see emerging is a main storm track that takes lows into the Great Lakes and generates a lot of up-and-down temps here.

    How much you wanna bet by mid November there are a bunch of weather weenies on the net exclaiming how bad this winter is, weeks before it even starts? Never fails to amuse the hell out of me that people asses things before they even get underway. 😉

    1. Well, if that verifies, you’ll see me complaining, but only about that stretch of weather and not the Winter. However, I would be very much concerned that it might carry over into Winter.

      I Expect another below average snowfall Winter, but hoping for a bunch more.

      1. This time of year is a good time to have that pattern. It’s not winter. It would also continue to help chip away at the precipitation deficit.

  18. Could be a wild, Monday morning commute.
    Thoughts, TK?

    4:05 pm discussion from Norton:

    Together, this should support a batch/line of widespread rain
    with embedded heavier rain and a few thunderstorms. This will
    favor a period of heavy rain rates in areas as the line goes
    through, potentially exceeding 1-2″/hour. The positive is that
    this should move through quickly, but the heavy rates may impact
    the morning commute and/or cause minor nuisance flooding in
    urban/poor drainage areas. Strong to potentially damaging winds will also accompany this line. The question will be how much of the winds aloft from the strong LLJ will translate to the surface level. High- res guidance has been aggressive with a
    period of strong gusts accompanying the line; however, the early AM timeframe may limit efficient mixing. The strong forcing should be enough to bring at least gusts 30-40 mph along the line. Can`t rule out localized damaging gusts 50-60 mph within any stronger cells/storms. It will likely remain breezy behind the line/front with SW/WSW winds with gusts 20-25 mph.

    2. Generally agree, but the odds of the highest wind gusts are a little low. Could be a good solid line of moderate to heavy convective rainfall but only for up to an hour or two at heaviest, then it cuts out of here after maybe lingering as lighter showers for a bit.

      The Wednesday system looks similar but to a lesser degree as it stands now.

      Friday I think just carries the chance of a quick-passing shower.

      Those are the 3 systems to contend with during the coming week while we have a general trough over our region (centered to our west at first, then drifting eastward).

      2. Thank you from me too, TK.

        Do you have an idea of Saturdays weather? Our oh my Goule festival is on Sutton Common

        1. Looking good right now. Sun, passing clouds, a light to moderate breeze and high temps in the upper 50s.

    1. Well, since the weather has no idea what day of the week is, I’ll say it’s just a coincidence. Also, since I can’t determine details for coming Mondays, even figuring that out as is becomes a no-can-do thing anyway. 🙂

      Basically, it is as meaningless in my opinion as the string of “rainy weekends”, most of which were dry for the majority of hours. They’d literally count a 15 minute shower on a Saturday morning as a rainy weekend, and I do not count that.

      That entire thing was glorifying the negative for views, shares, and clicks.

      1. I’ve noticed that recently it has only been raining on days of the week that end with a ‘y’. Tomorrow will be yet another example of this pattern. This has to be more than a coincidence.
        🙂

  21. Maye had a 91.3% completion percentage.

    Drake broke the previous record which was held by the greatest of all-time Tom Brady… who had a 88.5%.

    And he can run and throw the long ball

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