Saturday October 18 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

High pressure dominates our weather this weekend with dry conditions. Early this morning is chilly (30s inland, 40s coast) as the high building in dropped the winds and allowed for radiational cooling to occur. Today, we see a decent temperature recovery into the 60s (mostly lower to middle 60s for high temps). Tonight’s temps don’t drop as much with a developing southwesterly breeze as the high slides offshore. This allows Sunday to warm further into the 60s (mostly middle to upper 60s for high temps) but with a more noticeable breeze than today. You’ll see patches of high clouds today trying to work in from the northwest but they will be basically obliterated by dry air associated with a high pressure ridge aloft. As this ridge slides to the east on Sunday, the intrusion of these clouds patches will become more successful, and we’ll start to lose the sun before it sets. The clouds thicken up in earnest Sunday night ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system. As previously mentioned, a wave of low pressure is going to form on this front and its position will determine the details of Monday’s unsettled weather – a rain event – but for how long? I’m looking for an solid band of rain showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm too. This should cross the region in the morning and midday hours. Strongest indications are that the low pressure wave is going to track just north of the WHW forecast area. This would allow a dry slot to work in behind that initial band of rain showers, with breaking clouds and just the chance of a passing rain shower for the remainder of the afternoon on Monday. This is my strong leaning for the evolution of it, but I’ll watch it for any last-minute surprises. Despite bring a a broad low pressure trough, we will have a small ridge of high pressure at the surface work into our region Tuesday with a fair weather interlude, before the next low pressure and frontal system bring a return to showery weather for part of Wednesday. Leaning toward the first half of the day for the most likely wet weather to occur, and clearing it out late.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain showers probable west of I-95 by daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely including the slight chance of a thunderstorm morning and midday, then breaking clouds and partial sun but with a chance of an additional rain shower afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers arrive pre-dawn. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with morning showers. Breaking clouds midday on. Highs 58-65. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

We stay in the mean trough position but the overall pattern is more dry than wet. A frontal boundary can bring a shower about October 24 but it looks generally dry in general through the October 25-26 weekend before a rain chance arrives at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Staying with the idea of a trough in the Great Lakes / Northeast, but limited rain chances and more often than not seeing dry weather here. Details TBD.

66 thoughts on “Saturday October 18 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    41 here this morning.

    Ocean temp: 56. (Boston Bouy)

    Wordle: 4

      1. Thank you. I really thought I had it in 3, but as per usual, my valid word was not it. Thankfully, next guess was it.

        Hey you got the word, which is always good.

        Today’s word it not used all that often.

      2. Nice 4!!

        I also struggled to just now get in five. I’ve been working on it on and off since midnight

    1. Looking at some guidance, it all depends. Some show the rain out of there by game time, while others say still some showers during the game. Either way, the heavy stuff, hopefully, is out of there.

      Does that sound about right?

  7. Thanks, TK.

    In my opinion, Shohei Ohtani is the greatest athlete in all of professional sports.

    1. He’s pretty good, that’s for sure.
      His ad o. TV, I forget the product, really showed off his swing. One of the best I have ever seen.

      To be on e of the best hitters and the planet and a damn good pircher is simply amazing!!!

    2. Sorry Tom. If you don’t get letters with the 1st 2 guesses, especially letters in the correct position, it is really a tough go.

      You’ll get it tomorrow!!

  11. JPD – Very funny what you posted above!

    Asking a question about the weather for the Pats game then answering it yourself. Lol. 😀

    1. Well, I didn’t get an answer, so what was I to do? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I only looked at some models, so I am still interested in a professional opinion.

    2. My wife is great at that, asking a question and then answering it herself ….

      My wife : What are you feeling for dinner tonight?

      Me: pasta

      My wife: oh, I don’t want that. Let’s go to ……

      1. he he he

        I almost always defer to the wife. Anything she likes, I like as well, EXCEPT for Ziti. I can’t stand that. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        But I’ll eat it, if that is what she wants.

        2. Interesting. Do you like other pasta shapes, just not ziti? How about Ziti’s fraternal twin Penne? 🙂

          1. I am strange, always have been.

            I don’t think it is the pasta, but rather the sauce one
            puts on it.

            We have Ziti with Rao’s Marinara sauce and that combination I don’t like.

            Any pasta with our homemade sauce of ground beef with sauteed onions and green peppers with Hunt’s Whole peeled tomatoes is out of this world. It’s all in the sauce!!!

            1. I barely Cooked when Mac and I started dating. He was a tremendous cook. One of the biggest thrills of my life was when I made spaghetti sauce and he loved it. Coming from a great cook and someone who lived In Rome for years, that was quite the compliment.

              Sorry. As everyone knows, it doesn’t take much for me to take a trip down memory lane.

              Short of it is….i agree. The sauce makes the difference

            2. I totally agree. Last night my son and I made chicken parmigiana with pasta using sauce that my wife made from fresh tomatoes.

              We made enough for an easy second meal sometime soon! 🙂

  12. 3KM NAM for 1PM tomorrow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101806&fh=35&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z NAM at 2PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101806&fh=35&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z HRRR at 1PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101812&fh=29&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z RDPS at 2PM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101812&fh=29&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

    So, to me, it looks iffy tomorrow.

    I guess we’ll get to see how Drake Maye fares in shitty weather,
    unless the action is out of there in time. We shall see.

  14. Haha you guys cracking me up with the Pats thing above. JP .. you can usually answer your weather questions pretty well if nobody gets back to you. 😉 That was a nice laugh in the middle of my busy Saturday.

    I got up before the sun, got my blog written, then hopped into the car and drove to Holliston for a soccer game (friend’s daughter), then back here and right out into the yard to do the autumn shrub / bush / small tree trimming for the final time of the year – one or two more leaf cleanups ahead. Woburn still has 3 yard waste pick up dates, but we won’t need the late one again this year (2nd year in a row everything will be down early)! Difference, last year what was gold (Norway maple) is just going green to brown and coming down. To be expected though!

    After this the hoses come off and drained and rolled up and the outside water gets shut off – the remaining window screens come down, and my son and I finish decorating the grounds for Halloween (including inside where mom lived, which she wanted us to do even after she left us). 🙂 Her legacy lives on!

    This work continues through the weekend – it’ll take 2 days haha!

    Next weekend…
    Saturday: SNE Weather Conference.
    Sunday: Woburn’s Host Lions Club Halloween Parade

      2. I will .. I slip them one myself too for what they did to my son during that t-storm. Love the conference, dislike the company that owns the building that we have it at.

  15. For those who didn’t get a chance to see what Ohtani did last night, here’s a nice recap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFvryLA67bQ

    As Tom said, his second homer was a mammoth blast, Bondsian or Jacksonian. The guy’s pitching arsenal is unreal, too. 100 mph fastball and wicked sliders, curves, and cutters.

    2. One of my friends described Ohtani as once in a generation. My other friend corrected him and said it would be more like once in 5 generations.

      1. It is never easy for me to say since I’m beyond protective of family. Ted was a pure hitter. I won’t compare there since he lost years to service in his prime. But Ted had one exceptional talent. Ohtani has two. Pitching no less. Absolutely beyond great

  18. 12Z EURO still has a hurricane. Each run, different location and intensity, but there.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025101812&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    As depicted, destined to re-curve to the E and NE and OTS.
    Something would have to change to get it up here and likely NOT tropical if/when it did.

    200Mb flow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=200wh&rh=2025101812&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

  19. If you’re up now (and see this before 6:45 a.m.) and can see the eastern sky – thin crescent moon & venus dazzle.

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