Saturday November 1 2025 Forecast (8:04AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

A cool opening weekend for the month of November, starting rather breezy today as the air flows around the back side of a storm in eastern Canada, then diminishes for Sunday as high pressure builds in. We’ll still see some cloud patches around today from back-side-of-low air flow, and Sunday maybe some high and mid level cloud patches from a small upper disturbance moving by. The weather pattern going forward through these first several days of the 11th month of 2025 will be active, with a “system” about every other day. During this period our timing is later Monday and later Wednesday. The Monday system actually is two systems, one southern stream and one northern stream. My thoughts are we see no phase, the southern one passing just out to sea to our south, while the northern stream features low pressure tracking eastward, passing to our north, and dragging a cold front through here Monday evening when there can be some rain showers. This sets up a breezy, cool, dry Tuesday with a northwesterly wind. But the fast-moving pattern sends a small high pressure area just to our south and the wind switches to southwest Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure and frontal system – a slightly more robust northern jet stream disturbance. This brings the chance of more significant rain showers by that evening.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine / cloud patches. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Early clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Similar pattern – quick moving systems passing by. A cool, breezy, dry November 6. Next small system moves through with a rain/mix shower chance late November 7. Timing suggest next wet weather chance is brief but better later November 9. Will fine-tune. Temperatures variable – averaging near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Watch for a storm system tracking through the Great Lakes early to mid period with more unsettled weather. Late period indications of a broad, slower-moving or potentially “cut-off” type system bringing another chance of unsettled weather. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

88 thoughts on “Saturday November 1 2025 Forecast (8:04AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Happy All Saints Day!

    1,345 ❄️

    Since this is the first month that we are vulnerable for snow, I decided to post the “count” again. 🙂

    1. Remind me what the count means?

      # days since a 6 inch snowfall?????

      We had a 7 inch snow here in JP last year. Perfectly placed foe Ocean enhancement.

    1. You have company. A word didn’t become clear until after 3 guesses, and then I picked the other word only to get the correct one on guess 5.

  6. Thanks TK
    Will see if Boston ends up getting a 6 plus snowfall this winter and the count will stop.

  7. Maybe will get lucky and end it early and have a storm like we had December 5th-6th in 2003.

    1. Well-underway in its formative stages…

      Never in my time of long range forecasting have so many factors had the potential to go one way, or completely another. Funny that I was talking to someone else about the same thing, finding out others have a similar feeling. This is also in addition to two long range forecasts that I saw last week at the SNE Weather Conference (Judah Cohen & Kevin L. from ch 25).

      I usually start to gather the “puzzle pieces” in late summer / early autumn, via ongoing large scale, long term indices and their expectations, then as we get closer and closer I pull the info-gathering in to things that are less long-term predictable. A lot of guess-work starts to come into play when you get to things that can change frequently during a season, so you have to try to figure out how the longer term things may impact the behavior of the shorter term things.

      This (so far) has lead to what I first mentioned, and I don’t expect that to change in the next 2 weeks when I issue the actual forecast. That said, I do have an “idea” of how I think it’s all going to play out. Stay tuned…

        1. Yes. There will be sun, clouds, rain, snow, wind, calm, mild, and cold. 😉

          Haha!

          Not really any hints yet. 🙂 I want to make sure I have it sorted. There are a LOT of variables, more than usual.

  11. For those who care, the World Series will be won tonight (game 7), or early tomorrow morning depending on how long the game goes.

    Prediction: Toronto.

    1. Unless the Red Sox make some serious off-season moves, I predict that they are ALREADY DONE for the 2026 postseason. I still maintain that the Red Sox ended the regular season running on fumes which, as usual, SAK totally disagreed. They had the Yankees very much on the ropes and let them get away.

      Of course, Toronto would have clobbered the Sox anyway but at least I would have had the satisfaction of eliminating the Yankees head-to-head.

      1. I agree with everything SAK said this season. I seldom ever disagree with him on sports. He’s pretty much always correct with factual-based information. People can have varying opinions, of course, but I see no reason to disagree with anything he ever says about any teams that I also root for. Easily the most sports-knowledgeable person of everybody I know.

    2. What an ending to that game last night !

      The Dodgers certainly have a Red Sox connection with Mookie Betts, Kiki Hernandez and their manager Dave Roberts, whose steal in game 4 of the 04 ALCS helped turn that series around.

      With that said, rooting for the Blue Jays.

  12. The last time Boston received 6”+ was on January 29, 2022. I forget the exact amount but I believe it was at least 24 inches. ❄️

    Even Quincy received 6” in a snow event last year while good ole Logan came up well short at 5.2”. ❄️

    When you translate the above date to “days” it’s even more painful (1,345).

  13. I will be watching game seven of the World Series tonight. It has been an entertaining series. First world series to go to a game seven since 2019 between the Nationals and Astros. Last two game seven’s the road team won 2016 Cubs 2019 Nationals.

  14. Melissa (2025)
    Milton (2024)
    Michael (2018)
    Maria (2017)
    Matthew (2016)

    5 M-storm names retired in the past 10 years.

    These also join…
    Michelle (2001)
    Mitch (1998)
    Marilyn (1995)

    Running short on M-names!

    1. My college roommate is the long-time, play-by-play voice of the Fisher Cats and he told me that eight current Toronto players, the manager, the pitching coach and the hitting coach who are all Fisher Cat alums!

  16. Yes, I saw the GFS 12z operational run.
    Yes, it can happen. It has before. No, it likely won’t.

    Moving on… 🙂

        1. For November THAT is nice potential! I bet the snow weenies are already on top of this, lol.

          What more do you want for early November JPD? 🙂

            1. It’s easier to snow in April than in November. Maybe it takes awhile to get rid of all the summer heat leftover?

              1. The ground is warmer and the water is warmer in mid to late autumn than mid spring, and most often the upper air pattern is also colder. This is why it’s easier to snow in spring than autumn around here. It always has been, even when the AMO was negative (which by the way, there are signs it’s heading in that direction more rapidly than I originally thought, but more about that later).

        2. Not every potential is in feet my friend. This would be a nice early season event if it were to occur and instantly put much of the area at well above normal for the “season-to-date”, with a long, long way to go of course.

          However, we know how these model runs are to be taken.

          1. Yup, you are correct. However, even as depicted Boston would have quite a slug of rain before any limited changeover. What does it show an inch or 2 at best. Let’s see what shakes out. 🙂

  18. I’m hoping for lake cutters this winter. I know it’s a pipe dream. When I fractured my right ankle 4 years ago 14 screws and a titanium plate, I’m paranoid about ice and snow. I’m 70 years old.

  20. Re: a conversation above: the sci-fi movie, the day after tomorrow ……… after the storm ends, the snow is deep enough to cover the library the people are taking shelter in and almost to the top of the Statue of Liberty.

    This is what JpDave is looking for accumulations. Anything else is underwhelming. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Well, that’s certainly a set-up for one disappointment after another. I’d want to be (and am) happy with what Mother Nature gives us. Season to season, month to month, week to week, day to day, hour to hour, minute to minute. It’s all fascinating to me. 🙂

      1. Oh yeah …..

        I’ve never met him, but I really like JpDave and his enthusiasm for big outcomes in the weather.

        When he’s not impressed with snow amounts, it brings a chuckle and I do always think of that movie.

        I do think he found Feb 2015 to be good 🙂

        1. Good?????? How about EXECELLENT!!! I loved every minute of it!!! Now, that was a Winter to remember.

      2. Fair enough. I’m always happy with what we get but will always hope for more prior to the event.

    2. C’mon, I’m not that bad. Early season snow of 6 inches would do it for me. Into Winter, anything less than a foot is a waste of time.
      Spring, a 6 inch snow would do the job.

  21. Hopefully a couple HOLY CRAP BATMAN from JpDave this winter. I think the last one was back in January 2022 which I believe was the last Blizzard Warning for SNE

    2. I think the winters here have changed significantly & I’m betting same old thing as it’s been the last few yrs , however I’d really like a couple of really big weekend snow storms where I can bang in at work & enjoy it

      1. I actually already explained in detail why each winter was the way it was. They have not changed significantly in a permanent way.

        Once again (and I have a feeling I’ll repeat this a lot more), you don’t just suddenly go into below normal (or above normal) anything and stay there. That’s not how weather / climate works.

        3, 4, 5 winters that are leaner snow winters doesn’t suddenly mean the winters have changed. As I have stated a zillion times already, look back at the winters of 1978-1979 through 1991-1992 and tell me how many were above normal snowfall years in Boston. And then do the same thing for the same number of years that followed that. 😉

        I’ll wait…

  22. Not sure it was mentioned, but don’t forget to set your clocks back 1 hour at 2AM or whenever you go to bed.

  26. The whole turning of the clocks this is the worst of the two switches, I like going back to the summer time way way more. Always hate losing an hour of sunlight in the afternoon just for it to be wasted for the ride to school and work not that it even matters, I still had to wake up to school in the dark just to get home to just have maybe a half hour of sunlight. Give me more sun in the afternoon, yeah I know we do not technically loose sunlight but the way the world works, you loose it unless your one of them weirdos that wake up at a god-awful hour in the morning 😛 The only thing waking me up at 430 in the morning is going skiiing and hitting that first lift. End of rant,

    I feel so bad for those hit by Hurricane Melissa, more and more images are coming out. Its going to take a long time to recover and it sickens me that there are people in the USA that are against helping them out.

    In terms of this upcoming winter, I don’t know, there are signs that it could be an average to good winter. You all know what that means when I am saying it. Some rather potent analogs are popping up but like TK I tend to wait until later in the month to see certain signals before I get to excited.

    1. I am one of the people who like the flip back to standard time now. We did the “stay on Daylight Saving Time” experiment in 1974 and everybody hated it. If we do it again, it’ll be the same result. We don’t want to be sending elementary school kids to school before sunrise, which is exactly what will happen in many areas. They at least get home before sunset even in the darkest part of the year with the current set-up.

      As far as the winter analogs for this year, there are a few OK ones, but I’ve never been that big on analogs, personally.

      CanSIPS is still insisting on a cold start to winter.

  27. Thanks, TK.

    That was the best Game 7 I’ve ever seen (and one of the best World Series). The game had everything. As my son told me, “Dad, this game is nuts.” It was. Cinema at its finest throughout. In fact, it was better than a thriller movie.

    I was rooting for Toronto, but don’t have any strong attachment to the club. I can only imagine how badly it must feel for the Blue Jay players and fans.

    Even though I like winter, I’m always melancholic for a day or two at the end of the baseball season. I miss it when it’s not there: The routine of a daily sport, a complex yet simple game. While I like hockey, it’s not the same as my passion for baseball. And I’m largely indifferent about football (I hardly watch the sport anymore) and am mostly bored by basketball. I like soccer when it’s played at a high level, but that doesn’t really happen in America.

    1. That double tap to touch home plate by the Dodgers catcher, I do think, had him out by a millisecond and the Blue Jays led the whole game and had a 4-2 lead needing 5 defensive outs.

      I felt so bad for them.

      Amazing theatre though and credit the Dodgers.

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