Sunday November 23 2025 Forecast (7:42AM)

125 Comments

COMMENTARY

A reminder that a lot of guidance shifting is not unusual during transitional patterns. It’s something that a seasoned meteorologist is used to, and while it can be frustrating from the perspective of using the guidance as a tool, it’s also part of the experience of this science and can be used as a learning opportunity about patterns and about how current versions of various models handle things and display biases and shortcomings. Again I hate to continue to bring up non-meteorologist weather pages on social media, but they’ve made it very difficult to communicate properly during the last few weeks, and I hope when we do see such things or get asked about them, we are letting our friends know to take not of the difference between these pages that exist for hype, clicks, shares, etc., and the blogs and pages that exist with the aim of communicating the information properly. We cannot afford to lose the latter, along with our professionals in the field

On a different note, a reminder that I have posted the winter forecast and created snow contest pages for this coming winter. Each can be found in the menu at the top of the main blog page! The winter forecast was also posted as a regular blog post, like the daily forecast update, so there are two places to access it.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

There are several weather systems to keep track of as we finish the weekend and head to Thanksgiving. Your Sunday will feature the return of some cloudiness and eventually a rain or snow shower opportunity as a weak clipper low pressure area dives southeastward via the Upper Great Lakes, crossing our region this evening. It’s a minor system – no significant impact is expected from any light precipitation that falls. However, if it precipitates hard enough to wet the ground and it can’t dry quickly enough, some icy patches can form overnight and early Monday as the sky clears out and temperatures fall below the freezing point in some areas. During the day Monday expect a sun/cloud mix but dry weather as an area of high pressure moves across the region. This high will then shift off to the northeast by Tuesday. During this time, low pressure enters the Great Lakes and its extending warm front will increase the cloudiness in our region and lead to a period of rain Tuesday night to very early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, this area of rainfall moves off to the northeast but low level moisture means lots of clouds, areas of fog, and perhaps an additional passing rain shower. A more organized line of showers is expected to cross the region with a cold front Wednesday evening as the parent low exits the Great Lakes and moves across southeastern Canada. This sets us up for for a blustery, cool (but not too cold), and dry Thanksgiving Day with sun and passing clouds. I do expect dry conditions for morning road races and the many traditional high school football games that take place, but fields that are natural grass may still be wet from recent rainfall.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Scattered snow and rain showers mid afternoon on. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a rain or snow shower possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

A colder west to northwest air flow from the day after Thanksgiving – aka Black Friday – and Saturday November 29 – aka my daughter’s birthday. 😉 I’m looking for mainly dry weather but a disturbance moving through can cause a few snow flurries on Saturday. Another small low pressure area approaches on the final day of November and may bring some light snow/mix/rain for parts of the region. There are indications of a quick building ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US that would provide a warmer spike of air to arrive a just in time for the start of December, but a frontal boundary can be nearby as soon as December 2 introducing the chance of some wet weather. Confidence is low on this part of the forecast as there are a lot of variables to consider.

The front that brings Wednesday’s showers should clear the coast and be offshore pre-dawn Thanksgiving, which looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and high temps in the 45-55 range regionwide along with a moderate westerly breeze. We then experience a dry stretch with a colder trend Friday 11/28 and Saturday 11/29 – maybe a passing snow flurry from a disturbance moving through at some point but no issues for travel. High pressure slides to our south to end November and start December with fair weather and a milder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Storm track into Great Lakes – up and down temperature pattern with a couple episodes of unsettled weather. A lot more refinining and detailing will be needed!

125 thoughts on “Sunday November 23 2025 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  2. I’ve been informed by a long time meteorologist in the field that the AMS meeting in January is going to talk about what can be done about the non-met, weather fear & hype pages that are undermining the ability to communicate good information.

    2. I don’t think you can put the genie back in the bottle. When pages are incentivized monetarily to hype any potential event, all bets are off. And just like television psychics – people pay attention to when they hit and ignore most of the misses. I don’t think there’s anything anyone can do to mitigate the muck and mire these pages, youtube channels, etc. do to the meteorological reporting ecosystem.

      2. I often wonder whether the monetization of sites is a good or bad thing. I suppose it depends on the site.

        1. It depends. It’s not a bad thing, but it becomes a bad thing when the person is compromising content just to get the bucks.

          I’d rather see Beavis & Butthead style pages that are for entertainment than ones that put out information disguised as a legit source of it, knowing they’ll fool enough ignorant people to make a buck while not caring that the information (content) is a load of bullcrap.

      1. Welcome. Nice to have some company. I was hopelessly lost, then after 3 guesses, I thought I had it on 4. NOPE. Finally got it on guess 5. There will be a 2 or a 3 today, I’m sure of it. 🙂

  8. Thanks Tk . Leaving for work this morning at 5:30 there was the first really heavy frost . My new ride has super max defrost & it worked awesome .

    1. My Honda CR-V has regular defrost but for some reason it literally has the job done in about 3 minutes even from cold start. Never had a vehicle do anything like that. 🙂

      1. My wife just got a 2029 Honda CRV with 60K on it this fall , do you like it Tk? I just traded in my truck at Halloween for a 2022 Ford Edge with 19,500 miles . It’s a very nice ride & fully loaded, but I miss my truck . It’s cheaper to drive & I have an excellent warranty 4 yrs or 100K whatever comes first AWD.

        2. I absolutely love my 2014 that has nearly 180K and drives like it’s brand new. 🙂

          I bought it in 2017 and not including regular maintenance, it’s only been to the shop ONCE to fix an issue common to that year’s model. That’s it.

  9. Football musings….

    I would like to see an additional stat for quarter backs and that
    would be completion percentages when the “throw aways” are removed. Would be curious to see how much that would raise the percentage AND it would give a much better idea of how
    accurate a quarter back is. How many throw aways per game are there? I’d say somewhere between 1 and 5 depending upon how the game goes.

    Thoughts?

      1. Yes, that could get a bit subjective at times, but “usually” it is fairly obvious. IF in doubt, don’t count as “throw away”.

  12. Re: AMS topic

    I think it’s the reader that the solution lies in.

    Can’t really stop anyone from producing a weather page.

    I mean, these weather pages about 5 days ago posted the Thanksgiving day snowstorm and told their readers it was looking good for snow and cold

    And now, obviously, we see how inaccurate that will end up being.

    So, it depends on the followers to reflect for one minute and realize someone putting out maps and general forecasts 10+ days out isn’t going to produce something that is helpful.

    Otherwise, I don’t know what’s going to make progress.

    Continue to educate the reader and you do a great job of that, TK !

    1. Bingo. I absolutely agree. A small part of that is the reader who responds. These folks look for hits….negative or positive. Without them, they have nothing. They know exactly what they are doing. I could repeat my favorite tactic but ….

    2. Yes. I did not expand on this above, but it’s basically the only approach that’s going to work.

  14. JpDave, that tropical thing is an obvious snowacane. It should appear on social media soon if it hasn’t already.

  16. ha ha ha fat chance it is even there come that date, let alone come up here as a snow storm. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Wouldn’t that be something?

  17. Thanks TK. 38F and cloudy here in Coventry after a low of 22.

    Just spoke to my mother in Amsterdam NY and she said it is snowing there and the ground has been whitened.

          1. I said “if it verifies”

            Judah said “Our AI subseasonal model, which I can credibly claim as world’s best is predicting that the most expansive region of most likely extreme #cold on earth stretches from the Canadian Plains to the US East Coast 3rd week of Dec.”

            1. Oh sorry, my bad. THEN I’ll joining you with
              the IF it verifies.

              Judah a bi full of himself? no? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. May be a silly question and way to vague since there are many stars.

    There is a star that has been rising brightly every night in my front, east facing window and traveling across to the SE window. I know it’s a star because it twinkles.

    Anyone know what it it? I can grab a photo tonight if clouds clear

    Thank you

    1. Might need a pic and exact location E or SE and a star/ planet near it. Otherwise it’s a Longshot.

      1. I didn’t think planets twinkled.

        Longshot will get a pic first night clouds clear.

        Thank you both

    3. the entire team looks off. Bengals have speed just like the Ravens. I am worried we are going to have 3 total loses. Also our Oline is being taken out by this terrible field.

        1. I did not say that, just stating facts an dour oline is banged up in just one game and that injury to Will looks to be bad

  25. The internet is judging the Patriots game on one quarter. Kind of like judging the entire winter before the solstice. Still don’t get why people insist on doing stuff like that…

    1. My comments are reserved for the 1st quarter. The Pats are more than a touchdown favorite in this one as they should be

      Personally I believe that even a 10-7 season might get them there. 12 wins is a lock for the playoffs.

      It’s funny how this stuff goes. There was a year when the Pats went 11-5 and didn’t make it to the playoffs. On the other hand, there are 2 or more teams that have made it to the playoffs with just 7 regular season wins.

      1. Yes it was a poor 1st.

        But often this season, the1st has not represented their play in quarters 2, 3, and 4. 🙂

        1. It hasn’t.

          I know my reasoning for getting on them is, against a 3-7 team, a poor 1st qtr will get you down 10-0 with a reasonable chance to come back.

          Against a playoff team, it might be 17 or 21-0 and that much harder to come back.

          And I’ve always believed you develop playoff habits during the regular season. Can’t go far in the playoff with poor defensive 1st series or overall poor starts by your QB

            1. Game over! Season over! Dynasty derailed! 😉

              In fact let’s just skip the 2nd half, award the Bengals enough points for a 1-point win, and be done with it. Go Bruins! Onto the Red Sox! 😉

              #TKtheDramaKing

            2. Hmm. They didn’t do much with that 2nd half kick-off. 😉

              Game not over! Season not over! Dynasty back on the rails! 😉

              1. This kind of reminds me of what it would be like to react run-to-run starting at hour 384 on a snowstorm on the GFS. 😉

              2. No question they have issues. How many times weee they stopped when right on top of the goal. But we’d be hard to name a team without areas that need work. Or a person for that matter.

                1. It’s always a work in progress. Even the best teams.

                  This season (the result of this game not included until it’s over) what we have seen is this team overcome the challenges and the mistakes.

                  But they need a strong 4th quarter. Time to step up.

  26. The Pats have had some 1st quarter / 1st half issues this season and the team is highly aware of their slow starts.

    This is also one area Tom Brady was highly aware of … he knew the importance of it.

    1. We just had a snow shower here that was enough to briefly dust the dirt & part of a cold rooftop (no heat source underneath it).

      1. Thank you all. And that Could well be. But do planets twinkle? This one has a very distinct twinkle.

        1. Planets do not usually display a twinkle as they are too close to us to have that effect take place … If you are seeing a bright celestial body with a distinctive twinkle (multicolored if you have a clear enough view) you are likely looking at bright star Aldebaran.

          1. That was always what I understood. Thank you. I downloaded sky watch and hopefully can see tonight. I’ll look for Aldebaran.

  29. I don’t pay much attention to ads. But I love the Amazon one of the older ladies sledding. Has me smiling every time. Song too

    1. And to your question, from the link above:
      “You might see planets twinkling if you spot them low in the sky. That’s because, in the direction of any horizon, you’re looking through more atmosphere than when you look overhead.”

      1. Awsome. Thank you so much. I did know that about stars vs planet. Or thought I did. The sky has fascinated me since I built my first solar system….right after I built the weather Station. Awfully nice of you to look that up.

  36. Patriots need to work on their goal line OFFENSE!!!

    0 for 8 on first and goal from the 1-yard line!

    The DEFENSE won this game when they had to at the end. Was there pass interference on the final play? 😉

  37. Radio and music fans may want to take note of this station that’s been around in different forms over the years. The call letters now belong to John Garabedian, long time Boston radio person, and a favorite of mine. He’s now at the helm of this listener-supported station which plays no commercials, just interrupted music and one of the most variety-packed playlists…

    Click here for a sample of recently played songs. This is one of the two best stations in this area now (the other being 92.5 The River).

    https://wjib.com/recently-played/

  39. Thanks, TK.

    Someone mentioned the lack of variation in temps this month – Eric Fisher? – and he’s right. It’s been remarkably November-like in its consistent dreariness, lack of much of note happening in terms of temp swings or precipitation. This is PRECISELY the kind of weather I had for 20 years while living overseas in Northwestern Europe: From late October through fFbruary, I experienced LOTS of gray, MANY days in the 40s and nights in the mid to upper 30s, loads of nothingness, and REALLY dark (latitude difference). So, I am used to it, but not in Boston. I don’t think I’ve experienced this gray and temperate a November here since the late 90s.

    1. Yes, it was E.F. who brought that up. Many of our months are temp roller coasters – but this one was more like a kiddie coaster. 🙂

  40. On the Pats, while I no longer watch the games except a quarter here and there, I do follow the team and am very happy they’re doing well. MUCH better than I expected.

    I am thrilled the Bruins are also doing better than I anticipated.

  43. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Joining car 5 for this one.

    Pats win and I saw snow flurries. Makes for a good day no matter how it happened. 🙂

  44. Pats will overcome the injuries. It happens to every team. It’s something they (and every team) need to deal with during the season.

    Pats .. 10-2. I maintain, anybody who realistically thought this team would be 10-2 after 12 games is not telling the truth. 🙂

    I would have been happy with a .500 record at this point.

    1. Thanks TK. Shame on Ch. 5 for not posting amounts. Hopefully Eric (Ch. 4) won’t go down that route.

      2. Here you go Philip. From TK. Might be last Friday

        That’s because forecasting a snow amount for an entire season is basically impossible. You can guess one. And you can guess it based on your overall thoughts – but one number is never going to really do the job of representing anything realistically.

        Yes I ask for inches and tenths for the contest, but that’s because it’s for fun.

        In my actual winter outlook, I will give a 10 inch range, and even that is pushing it. There are just simply too many variables in play.

      3. I wouldn’t shame them for making that choice. They still presented a well-prepared report explaining why they think winter will unfold a certain way. There is no requirement to post #’s for snow. Why don’t they post #’s for total precip? Highest temp? Lowest temp? Strongest wind gust?

        CPC doesn’t post snow amounts either, yet their long range forecasts are the most widely seen and shared of any.

  47. Still reading and with a big smile. Going thru some issues and Aldabaran is the eye of Taurus My younger brothers sign. Brings me comfort

    Aldebaran is a bright orange giant star in the constellation Taurus, known as the “Eye of the Bull”. It is approximately 65 light-years away, has a surface temperature of around \(4010\) Kelvin, and is about 44 times larger than the Sun. The star is also featured in fiction, notably in the anime series Re:Zero and Saint Seiya.  

  48. Rescued a 6 this morning (Monday) on Wordle.

    Very lucky, I had 2 letters through 5 guesses.

    I’ve failed and played better.

    I was repeating letters I already knew weren’t in the word or repeated a letter in the wrong spot, so I’ll take that 6, happily.

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