DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)
The next plume of Canadian wildfire smoke arrives today. While this plume will not be as dense as the one we experience at midweek, it will play some role in the reduction of visibility and may be detectable by smell for some. It won’t be as prominently visible overall due to the fact that we have low pressure passing to our north, and its warm front spreading a pretty extensive cloud shield into our region too. So while we have some limited sunshine in spots this morning, it will turn out to be a fairly sunless day, and the warm front will cause a round or two of showers to move through the region during this afternoon. Guidance ranges from a few hours of rain to just a brief bout of showers. I think what we see is somewhere in between, but I do think a fair percentage of the region will see the ground turn wet for a while between noon and 6 p.m. before we briefly enter the “warm sector” of the low and get a break. The low’s cold front will then cross our region this evening and tonight, with a pretty solid band of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest potential for stronger storms lies southwest of our region, but within the WHW forecast area some of the more notable activity would most likely be south of I-90. The short-range guidance (a few models) have been somewhat divergent on the exact timing of the heaviest activity. Currently, I’m leaning toward just after dark north and west, and a little later evening (after 10 p.m. to overnight) from the Boston-Providence corridor southeastward. Best plan is to monitor radar in real time if you have plans that involve travel or being outside, and as always check appropriate web pages etc. for updates on cancellations or postponements. The good news is that any rain we get is beneficial. The other good news is that Sunday will be a spectacular day. The front will have moved offshore pre-dawn, and we’ll be into an air mass similar to the one we experienced yesterday, mild air, low humidity, no rain, lots of sun, and smoke pushed back out of the region. High pressure dominates Monday, but we may see some smoke make a return to us at higher altitudes returning the hazy look to the sky. Another low pressure area will be passing to our north after that with current expectations being warm frontal rains on Tuesday and cold frontal showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, with timing and details to-be-determined.
TODAY: Smoke & haze. Clouds increase. A period of showers crossing the region west to east this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. A period of showers and thunderstorms west to east mid evening to after midnight, with some embedded downpours. A strong thunderstorm possible closer to the South Coast. Fog patches form late at night. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH which can be variable and gusty near any storms, shifting to W from west to east overnight.
SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.
MONDAY: Hazy sunshine with high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Potential high altitude smoke. Lows 60-67. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Hazy. Shower chances increases. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)
Fair weather is expected to dominate for several days with a shower / t-storm threat returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. No major heat indicated.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)
Shower / t-storm chances eyed for July 28 and July 30-31. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall pretty close to normal.
Good morning and thank you TK
72 up from 65
Ocean: 68
Wordle: 3
Superb 3
Thank you Tom
1st word did the trick. Thought I had it in 2, but missed by 1 letter. Only 1 possible word left for guess 3.
Wow – amazing!
Thank you SClarke
Wow you are on a roll. So happy you stuck with it
Joining again with a 3! Was a good week!
Awesome.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK !
Wordle : 5
Nice 5 and welcome aboard the Wordle train.
I’ll be joining you Tom .
Good 5. Welcome aboard the train.
I think that many standard 1st words didn’t fare too well with this particular word today., Not that it was a strange word as it was a good word and very common.
Awesome !
I’ll be joining you both with a 5
Welcome 🙂
Nice 5 and welcome aboard the train.
Thank you both. Always happy to be on the train instead of chasing it down the tracks. I heard a rumor that Dave is bringing lemonade. 🙂
Thanks TK
Could see that smoke back looking out my window. Will see if that lowers the severe weather threat today.
SPC shifts everything a little further east with the latest update
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MA_swody1.png?1784377271
Tornado Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MA_swody1_TORN.png?1784377484
Wind Percentages
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/images/MA_swody1_WIND.png?1784377536
Interesting.
Smoke not as severe as the other day when it limited/prevented severe, so we shall see.
I don’t expect anything severe here near the coast. Inland, could be a different story.
Thank you, JimmyJames
One thing that caught my eye was the wind and tornado percentages. We don’t usually see them that high as they are in parts of SNE today.
Agreed. Is this a real threat or spc crying wolf?
I might be wrong but I still think that smoke is going to lower this severe weather risk.
For any fireworks fans reading, Revere has postponed their sand sculpture fireworks display scheduled for tonight to Sunday evening at 9:00 p.m.
Now, for my Pyro Tour, I monitor North Attleboro, which is my back-up display tonight. If they are a go, then I go there!
My back-up back-up is Salisbury Beach, but they will probably cancel soon (if they haven’t already) as they have to prepare the display on a barge to be floated up to 1000 feet off the beach and the entire process requires many hours of work, so if it’s even a marginal situation, they will tend to cancel.
lemon aid
During the recent heat, my wife and I have been enjoying some delicious lemon aid.
I found a recipe online. There are many ones out there, but I can assure that this recipe makes a wonderful lemon aide.
Follow these easy steps:
1. Mix 1 cup sugar and1 cup water in a sauce pan over medium heat, stirring occasionally until the sugar is totally dissolved into the water.
2. Squeeze the juices of lemons to make at least 1 cup of juice. I generally make about 1 1/4 cup of juice even though recipe called for 1 cup. Usually 5 or 6 lemons depending on size. Note: Thoroughly wash the lemons before slicing them, especially with cyclospora out there. A simple cheap juicer does a nice job without too much effort. I generally squeeze 1 lemon and then stir the sugar/water combo.
3. When sugar is dissolved, place the pan in the refrigerator for cooling, then complete the juicing
4. Add the juice to a 2 quart pitcher and then add the dissolved sugar/water and stir.
5. Now add 7 1/2 cups of water, stir and place in refrigerator.
Recipe calls for 8 cups and I have seen recipes calling for 4 cups. 7 1/2 works great!!!!
6. Serve over ice cubes and enjoy!!! I can’t tell you how GOOD it is!!!!
Copied and saved. Love lemonade but I’m lazy and use a mix. I’ll try this for sure
Beats the living shit out of a mix or bottled. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Enjoy!!!!
I’m positive it does. Can’t wait to try
Thank you
Thank you TK. 74/65. up from 56.
I did Some reading on Canada’s forestry program. It seems to have a very strong. And a different type of forest in many cases and what we have.
https://natural-resources.canada.ca/forests-forestry/insects-disturbances/forestry-canada
Of the 28 new wildfires reported in mid-July, Canadian officials classified:
* 15 as human-caused
* Eight as lightning-caused
* Five as undetermined
I have not fact checked the following but was shared by a persons who is relative fights the fires
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, there are 68 fires being combated in the US today. Utah, Texas, CA, Minnesota, Florida, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, North Carolina, Nevada, Wyoming and Virginia are all listed as active fires.
Today is the 40th anniversary of the first “tornado live on the news”. This F-2 storm (before the EF scale was introduced) hit the suburbs of Minneapolis MN and was carried live on the air with exclusive video from the KARE-TV news helicopter, piloted by Max Messmer with photograher / videographer Tom Empey.
This is a link to the YouTube upload of the newscast. I nearly wore out my VHS copy of this newscast watching it so many times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz7ZEF_LQcY&t=632s
Really cool video.
Some inaccuracy there. the announcer said it was an F2 or F3 with winds of 225 mph. Ah no!!!
He was very young at the time, and probably over excited.
He turned out to be one of the best in the broadcast business. 🙂
🙂
Thanks for posting!
This is awesome. I’ll watch in a bit. Thank you
Wow. I couldn’t wait. This is fascinating. Wow again
Thank you TK. Smelled the smoke early this AM.
Thinking the winds might be a little stronger tonight than what is in your forecast. Maybe 10-20 or 15-25 MPH.
Actually I’m glad you said that because that was supposed to be increased. I used yesterday’s as a base and neglected to change 2 things, including today’s wind, which I had definitely underestimated yesterday.
The other thing was tonight’s wind needing more description.
All of it is fixed now!
Dew points are on the rise.
Logan: 63
Norwood: 64
I have a reading of 65 here. I can FEEL the stickiness!!
here we go again!!!!!
New series on Netflix entitled The Hawk starring Will Ferrell.
Some people don’t like him. I actually do.
This series is about golf, in a crazy way. It is dumb and corny, yet I find it entertaining. If you like pure silliness, then you might like this. If not, then probably not.
Trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSRJ6PXHx88
Will look. I also like him
Thanks, TK!
Flash Flood Warnings for NYC, Newark and vicinity.
Tornado Warning for Geneva, NY
Thanks TK.
Warm, humid and dark with thick haze and smoke in the air here in Meriden CT on the softball field. Rain has just begun and looks like it is going to continue for about an hour. They are warming up now for scheduled 2 and 330 games.
I’d be surprised if the severe weather threat isn’t mitigated to some extent by the level of smoke in the air today.
Pouring here. They played a half inning and now are in a rain delay.
75/69. Had a few rain drops
Pouring where I am. Will see what happens once the warm front passes. Mark I agree with you about the severe weather threat.
Had a brief period of light rain. that is all so far.
Brightening a bit and rain has lightened up here in Meriden but they just called the games for the rest of the day as the fields are soaked.
Still smoky and hazy – the rain did not clear things up.
It’s going to take the cold front overnight to get rid of the smoke and haze.
Once and for all.
No, for a day or so and then it will be back.
Darn! 🙁
74/66 here
I took a nap and woke up to 0.18”.
Currently 69 / 68 here with 0.12″ of rain.
69/67 here now.
Need help!
I am away from my house so can’t see radar right now. Can someone please give approximate timing for the next wave of rain tonight? I have to walk a friend’s dog … don’t want to be in a downpour. Thank you.
Not for at least a few hours if I am reading radar properly.
Rafar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standardlo
I will kick myself, but I had to open the slider. At least a little. I love listening to the wind and feeling the cooler air.