A low pressure trough traversing the region from west to east through Friday will bring us a period of unsettled weather. If you step outside this morning you’ll already notice there has been a spike in humidity as a warm front passed the region during the early morning hours, boosting dew points. We’ll have a healthy southerly air flow in this warm air mass today and as the upper pattern pushes a surface cold front slowly into and across the region later today through the first half to two thirds of Friday, we’ll have an increase in rain shower activity, becoming most widespread tonight and early Friday when there can be downpours and even some thunder. A little low pressure area forming on the frontal boundary may delay its departure for a few hours during the day on Friday, but it looks like all of the rainfall should be offshore by mid afternoon, exiting Cape Cod lastly. In will flow drier air behind that for the upcoming weekend, but it will be a mild weekend as we maintain a southwesterly air flow both at the surface and aloft. Look for the sunniest day of the two weekend days Saturday. Sunday may feature more cloud cover at times as a disturbance approaches. For now, I am keeping that day’s forecast rain-free, although some guidance has hinted at the chance for some shower activity before the day is over, especially to the west, so this will be something to keep an eye on. Unsettled weather more certainly returns early next week as another trough and frontal system approach and move in from the west…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with intervals of sun during this morning. Generally overcast with an increased chance for showers southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some likely heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, above 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers including some downpours ending from west to east in the morning except lingering near the MA East Coast and NH Seacoast into early afternoon and Cape Cod until about mid afternoon. Clouds break for sun west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Low pressure trough overhead brings cooler air but still a rain shower chance October 18 then departs with dry/cool weather following that, until a moderating trend in temperature later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Progressive pattern but with the mean trough position Great Lakes to Northeast on the larger scale. This does mean a couple precipitation threats exist, but no long-lasting unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-13-2022

High pressure shifts offshore today with another fair weather day for us. After a cool start like yesterday, we turn mild again, but this time you’ll notice more of a breeze than we had yesterday when we had high pressure overhead. Now we’re in the region between the high and an approaching low pressure area from the west, which helps create more wind. Our run of nice days will come to an end Thursday as the trough from the west moves in, and its accompanying frontal system triggers showers which will move into the region by later in the day. The wet weather likely is most widespread at night into early Friday, when some downpours may occur, along with some gusty winds. We have to watch for a thin squall line which may be embedded in a larger area of widespread showers and rainfall too. Everything pushes offshore during Friday behind a wave of low pressure that forms on the frontal boundary but moves by quickly. Some guidance prolongs rainfall over Cape Cod and even far eastern MA into early Saturday but I am not buying into this scenario. Looks like a mainly fair weather weekend with narrow high pressure shifting through the region then offshore, and with the mean trough position still to the west, the upper and surface flow is mainly southwest, meaning a milder weekend than the previous one.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 62-69. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially by late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, above 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers ending from west to east in the morning. Clouds break for sun in the afternoon but passing rain showers still possible, and more widespread showers may continue over Cape Cod. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

The first few days of this period will be dominated by a trough of low pressure drifting eastward through the region with unsettled weather and a cooling trend – details to be ironed out in the days ahead. Fair, seasonably cool weather should be with us for later in the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

No big changes here. The large scale pattern keeps the general trough position in the Great Lakes and Northeast, a bit drier with variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-12-2022

Late-day showers especially north and west of Boston provided enough ground moisture for areas of fog overnight and early this morning, but that will dissipate soon with the sun rising into the sky. High pressure builds into the region today then shifts to the south and east Wednesday. This provides fair weather, cool mornings, and milder afternoons both days. A fairly amplified trough of low pressure will be approaching from the west during this time and then will move across our region later Thursday through Friday. An associated surface frontal boundary will bring a swath of showers to the region later Thursday into Friday, maybe coming in a couple waves. Fair weather returns later Friday as a developing low pressure area on the boundary pulls the front more quickly to the east at that time. This sets up a nice start to the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.

TODAY: Early fog patches especially in Boston’s northern and western suburbs, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind calm early, then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially by late in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, above 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers ending from west to east in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

October 16 should see dry weather to round out the weekend but we may end up with more clouds at least in advance of another trough heading this way. This trough brings a shower chance early next week followed by fair but cooler weather by the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Large scale pattern keeps the general trough position in the Great Lakes and Northeast, not amplified enough for much rainfall, but allowing for additional deliveries of cool autumn air with 1 or 2 brief precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-11-2022

A disturbance and old frontal boundary will cross the region from west to east today with abundant cloud cover, but only a limited shower chance, confined mainly to the afternoon hours and northwest of Boston. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday then shifts offshore by midweek. This brings fair weather and eventually a slight warming trend. Our nice weather will be put to an end later in the week as a trough and frontal boundary approach from the west bringing showers to the region, some possibly heavy, later Thursday into Friday, before pushing offshore later Friday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. A brief rain shower possible mainly west and north of Boston during the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers ending from west to east in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. . Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Upper pattern features trough of low pressure to the west and high pressure at the surface to just offshore during the October 15-16 weekend. This leads to a fair, seasonable weekend, not quite as cool as the preceding one, and quite nice for any autumn outdoor activities both days. The trough to the west is expected to edge eastward and bring some unsettled weather at times during the October 17-19 period, but definitely not 3 days of solid rainfall – just chances of rain showers from time to time and a cool-down.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

As low pressure departs the region but the mean trough position still from the Great Lakes to Northeast, expecting mainly dry weather with 1 or 2 brief precipitation threats, and temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-10-2022

After a showery very early morning Saturday in far southeastern New England, we’ve been enjoying a nice weekend so far, and despite a very chilly start today we have another nice day coming up for today as well. You’ll notice some patchy clouds crossing the sky from west to east, favoring areas to the north and west of Boston first and a bit further southeast later. This is a result of a weakening / dissipating secondary frontal boundary that is doing nothing much than slightly reinforcing the cool, dry air we have here. You will hardly notice it other than the cloud patches and a bit more wind today than we had yesterday as the atmosphere mixes up with the sun’s heating. So this is the type of day you need careful placement of your wind-sensitive yard sale items or maybe to zip your jacket on your walk. 🙂 A disturbance and old frontal boundary cross the region from west to east Monday with more clouds and only a small chance of a few brief rain showers. After that, nice weather returns as high pressure builds in then shifts offshore and we see moderating temperatures, especially by midweek. While we stay mild for Thursday, that is the day that our unsettled weather chances increase significantly – this as a frontal boundary pushes this way from the west in association with a more amplified trough of low pressure moving in this direction via the Great Lakes and Midwest. We will likely see showers before Thursday ends.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing, then clouds return pre-dawn. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief rain shower possible afternoon mainly west and north of Boston. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increase from west to east. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

While models differ a little on timing of exit of wet weather with frontal passage, going with a wet start and dry finish for October 14 as the front pushes offshore, then a narrow but slower moving high pressure area moving in for dry and seasonable to mild weather for the October 15-16 weekend. This time I don’t think we get as strong a cool push due to the orientation of the upper pattern not allowing a more direct delivery of polar air. That trough to the west will also help initiate another unsettled weather threat in our region during the October 17-18 time frame as well, although it’s too early for details on timing.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

As low pressure departs the region but the mean trough position still from the Great Lakes to Northeast, expecting mainly dry weather with 1 or 2 brief precipitation threats, and temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-9-2022

The cold front that went through late yesterday slowed down temporarily as a little low pressure area ripples along it early today, keeping clouds in place in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT, along with some showers to start the day from the MA South Shore into eastern RI eastward to Cape Cod. These will exit by mid to late morning and clearing will continue to move in from the west, with the remainder of the day featuring sun and passing fair weather clouds and the true feel of fall with cool air and a developing breeze. Tonight is going to be the coldest night of the season so far, with many areas dropping below 40 for the first time since last spring. Locations that see the wind drop off adequately will run a high chance of seeing their first frost of the season, but this may be prevented in some areas by the breeze and air that is too dry, as well as some coastal and urban areas which will not be cold enough for it either way. Regardless, Sunday starts with a chill and will also be a cool day with a breeze, maybe up a few degrees for high temps over what we see today. There will be a little boundary crossing the region during the afternoon and evening – basically the remains of a secondary cold front – that will bring some cloud patches, but not expecting any showers with it. High pressure builds in then eventually shifts to the south and east from Monday through Wednesday with fair weather and a moderating temperature trend.

TODAY: Clouds early to mid morning eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI, including showers from eastern RI across southeastern MA at first. Otherwise, sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost, especially away from the coast and in lower elevation suburban and rural areas. Lows 28-35 with coldest in the deepest valley areas, except 36-43 coastal plain and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun and patchy clouds during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A trough of low pressure will approach from the west then cross the region October 13-14, first with fair and mild weather, then with rain showers likely as a cold front moves into and across the region. This front exits the coast with a narrow area of high pressure building in for the October 15-16 weekend and I am expecting dry and seasonably cool weather at that time. Another trough approaches at the end of the period and may bring additional unsettled weather to the region by then.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

The trend on medium range guidance has been to slow the progression of the pattern slightly, with a trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast, far enough west for a threat of additional unsettled weather early this period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures may be milder early in the period before returning to near to below normal. This outlook is only moderate confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-8-2022

Big difference yesterday when we got that west and southwest breeze with high pressure, coming after a stretch of cool, damp, unsettled weather. Almost felt like mid summer for a bit there, but you can’t fool us, mother nature! We were paying attention to that ever-lowering sun angle and earlier sunset time! But that aside, we can get some very nice weather at this time of year too, as yesterday showed us, and today will again for the most part. Today we deal with early clouds from a departing weak disturbance, but go back to lots of sun for several hours, and another warm-up to 70+ for many, but now it’s limited. A cold front charges across the region late in the day and this evening, bringing a few more clouds and perhaps a passing rain shower to some areas, but for all areas a fresh Canadian cool air mass arrives behind the front overnight and for our weekend. Although this time, the cool air will not be accompanied by overcast skies or an onshore flow with wet weather. This time it comes with bright sun, passing clouds, dry air, a gusty breeze (especially Saturday) but the classic feel of New England autumn. So while you’ll need an extra layer or two, you can still go out and enjoy your weekend autumn activities if you desire! In fact, some areas that see the wind drop off adequately and outside of urban and coastal influence may see their first frost Saturday night / Sunday morning. Technically, this should fall shy of being a freeze, but you know at this time of year your time is limited before that comes… Look for the nice weather to continue into early next week too, but as high pressure slips off to the south and east, we’ll see temperature moderation. There will be an old frontal boundary though that slides through the region on Monday and while I don’t expect this to “mess up” the weather in terms of rainfall, it may help put a few more clouds in the sky on that day. Another high pressure area in eastern Canada doesn’t look like it will be strong enough this time to push that boundary cleanly though and it will just dissipate over the region as that high just joins the one sitting to the south. Long story short, after our recent unsettled spell, it’s back to a dry stretch. We’ll continue to see our foliage colors coming in especially with the cooler days / chilly nights, but you still have to head north if you want peak color. Although we seem to be running earlier than the recent average, our turn for peak color is still a little way off…

TODAY: Early clouds, then lots of sun, then late-day clouds with a slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower especially west and north of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, then clearing. Lows 39-46, coolest interior hills. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior low elevations, 38-43 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing especially interior lower elevations.

SUNDAY: Sunshine except a few patchy clouds return during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

High pressure offshore, trough to the west but not close enough for unsettled weather yet means a fair and mild October 12. Timing of next trough and frontal system looks like later October 13 to early or middle of October 14 which brings some unsettled weather (rain showers) and mild at first, then the arrival of a new cool air mass. This system will be progressive and the early call is for another very nice weekend for October 15-16 but on the cooler side again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Milder trend early period, mid period rain shower threat, then hints of the coldest air of the season so far arriving before the end of the period as a progressive autumn pattern rolls on with the mean trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-7-2022

Low pressure to the south of New England ends its extended stay and pulls off to the east today, and clouds associated with it will follow suit and exit – with that departure taking longest from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod. But by the end of the day pretty much everybody will have seen some sun. Milder air also arrives today as the wind shifts to west and southwest. However, don’t get used to the mild weather. We get one more mild day Friday but a strong cold front crosses the region during the afternoon and evening, maybe producing a brief passing shower. This sets us up for a fair, breezy, and cool October weekend. The chilly air gets reinforced later Sunday with another cold front, keeping the cool dry regime going to start next week as well. This pattern will continue to accelerate fall foliage season, which is likely to be running ahead of normal by up to several days, and so far with strong signs of being more brilliant than last year, at least in some locations. Keep in mind that despite some decent rainfall since September, reducing drought, there are some trees that already went into “survival mode” from drought stress, and may have already dropped some leaves.

TODAY: Clouds give way to more sun, first inland, last Cape Cod region. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from west to east by day’s end.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 37-44, possibly colder in sheltered lower elevations. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but may drop to near calm in sheltered lower elevations..

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A late-day shower possible in southern NH. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

High pressure over the region shifts to the south and east early to middle of next week with a moderating temperature trend. Next cold front follows after that, current timing late October 13 to early October 14, with a shower threat and a return to cool / dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Some up and down temperatures, tending to average near to below normal, with limited precipitation chances around air mass changes.