C-19 Chat Post – August 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

It’s Bermuda High time! The next 3 days will feature the classic New England hot and humid summer weather courtesy high pressure anchored off the US East Coast, centered in the vicinity of Bermuda. This means high temperatures over 90 for most areas except for a few coastal areas that may fall shy of 90. Boston’s high temps will fall shy of records all three days, which sit between 99 and 101 (all set during a brutal 1944 heat wave). Nevertheless, for the city it’ll be hot and muggy for the stretch with the only chance of a bit of temporary natural relief coming in the form of a possible feeble sea breeze on Friday as the wind field weakens temporarily, allowing that possibility. As for thunderstorm threats, despite the heat and humidity, we will lack strong triggers for storms, with most of those developing each afternoon well to the west. If they can organize into lines, the remains of them can make their way into the WHW forecast area both tonight and Thursday night but would likely be fading away and have minimal impact. Nevertheless, we’ll have to watch for that and otherwise just a few possible isolated air mass storms popping up any afternoon today through Friday. One other note: The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks the next couple of nights, and while we have the moon out of the way this time, what may not be out of the way are some clouds at times, as well as possibly some patches of high altitude smoke. However, some of the meteors should be visible for at least part of each night. Peak time to see them is after midnight to about first light. The thin and fast-moving meteors radiate outward from Perseus, high in the northeastern sky then gradually moving toward overhead as the overnight goes on. A reclining lawn chair and as little light pollution as possible will maximize your view, pending the cooperation of the weather. The heat will be broken by a cold front sweeping across the region Saturday. There is disagreement among the guidance as to the timing of this front. For example one piece of fairly reliable guidance brings the front across the region Saturday morning with limited shower activity, while the other says it’ll be an afternoon passage with a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms. At the moment I am still leaning toward the earlier passage with a day that starts muggy, has its shower threat mostly early, and ends drier, but this forecast is subject to change so check for updates. What is quite certain is that Sunday will be a very pleasant summer day thanks to high pressure that builds in from southern Canada.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 88-95, cooler in a few areas near the South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief shower possible mainly well west and northwest of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 91-98, cooler in some coastal areas especially the South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a brief shower mainly north and west of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 72-79, warmest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 90-97, possibly cooler coastal areas. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially morning and midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 70s falling into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

While we’ll have to keep an eye to the south to some moisture there, right now it appears that high pressure may remain in control over our region for most of if not the entire period with dry weather and low to moderate humidity, as well as a lack of significant heat – only a gradual warming.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure may shift offshore with increased warmth and humidity and also a better chance of shower activity during these days. Also as previously mentioned, need to possibly keep an eye out for tropical activity to the south, or remnant moisture approaching from the southwest, pending the development and movement of system(s) in the Atlantic basin.

C-19 Chat Post – August 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

A low pressure near just off the southeastern New England coast near Cape Cod will drift away to the east today and a warm front will move northeastward across the region during this afternoon and early evening. This means today will be a transition day from the cooler and cloudier but humid weather to breaking clouds with an increase in warmth and further increase in humidity. This is setting us up for three days of classic summer heat and humidity Wednesday through Friday as the Bermuda High sits off the US East Coast. Thunderstorm chances will be limited to isolated and mainly well west of Boston Wednesday, greater on Thursday as a trough approaches, and a slight bit less on Friday as the atmosphere may be a little more stable than Thursday, but yet there will still be a chance that day too. Saturday, a cold front will sweep across the region from northwest to southeast, putting an end to the high heat and knocking the humidity down. The timing of this front will determine when the best chance of showers and possible thunderstorms occur, and the coverage of any activity. Leaning toward the morning and/or midday hours for the main impact of this front for the WHW forecast area, but at day 5 there is some uncertainty on this…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a possible shower this morning. Becoming partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 88-95. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 91-98, cooler in some coastal areas especially the South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 72-79, warmest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point lower 70s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially morning and midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 70s falling into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure is expected to build over the region but centered more to the north, bringing a cooler and less humid stretch of days from the end of the weekend into the middle of next week. May have an increase in humidity and a shower threat by the very end of the period as high pressure shifts to the east.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

High pressure should sink to the south opening the door to more humidity and better chances for shower activity again during this period. Also need to keep an eye out for tropical activity to the south mid to late period, pending potential development and movement of one or two systems in the Atlantic Basin.

C-19 Chat Post – August 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

A frontal boundary and area of low pressure just to the south of New England will combine to make today fairly cloudy and on the cooler side of normal. Showers extending from parts of RI across parts of the MA South Coast including Martha’s Vineyard as of 7 a.m. will linger there and also expand eastward across much of Cape Cod including Nantucket before diminishing. A few more showers may pop up a little further north with the heating of the day, but these will be limited. The frontal boundary to the south will lift northeastward across the region as a warm front Tuesday with some cloudiness and perhaps an isolated shower, otherwise it will introduce warmer and more humid air again. Then the classic Bermuda High heat hump will set up shop from Wednesday through Friday with very warm to hot and humid weather. Each of those afternoons will carry the chance of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, with a gradual increase in chances and coverage each afternoon as it looks now.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely from RI to far southeastern MA into mid morning then diminishing. Isolated showers anywhere this afternoon. Areas of fog early. Highs 75-82, coolest in coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible, mostly during the morning. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 87-94. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

A cold front comes through the region most likely morning and midday Saturday (Aug 14) with a chance of showers/thunderstorm favoring eastern and southern areas before drier and slightly cooler air arrives. High pressure builds in with pleasantly dry weather Sunday (Aug 15). High pressure may sit over the region with continued fair weather and a gradual warming trend for the balance of the period. Possibility that some moisture approaches from the south by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure should sink to the south opening the door to more humidity and better chances for shower activity again during this period. Also need to keep an eye out for tropical activity to the south mid to late period, pending potential development in the Atlantic Basin.

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C-19 Chat Post – August 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

Our region will be between an approaching cold front from the north and a weak area of low pressure to the south today with lots of clouds around. Showers are most likely near the South Coast in association with the low to the south, but the approaching front will trigger a few showers in southern NH and MA during the day as well, though these will be rather isolated. Lingering showers are expected tonight with the low to the south while any showers that developed ahead of the front will fade and dissipate early on. The front will slip through the region and high pressure to the north will switch the wind around to the east across the area for Monday, with cooler but still slightly humid air. A few additional showers into Monday will favor areas mostly from I-90 southward as the frontal boundary and low pressure area will be sitting just south of New England. The low will weaken and move away and the front will come back northeastward as a warm front during Tuesday, opening the door for a more classic summertime feel by midweek with a warm to hot and humid southwesterly air flow and the daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday, with the greater chance of those being on Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly South Coast region. Isolated afternoon showers southern NH / northern MA. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly near the South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly near and south of I-90. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible, mostly during the morning. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 87-94. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

Heat, humidity, and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches on August 13. Front pushes offshore and high pressure moves in with drier weather for the August 14-15 weekend then high pressure may remain over the region with continued dry weather through the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Overall pattern looks dry with high pressure in control, but high pressure should sink to the south with time allowing it to become more humid again with an eventual increase in the shower and thunderstorm chance. We may also need to keep an eye on potential tropical activity in the Atlantic off the US East Coast by later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – August 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

A small area of high pressure keeps the region mainly dry today, but a weak trough approaching from the north may be enough to trigger a few isolated shower or thunderstorms in southern NH and maybe north central MA by late afternoon into evening before they fade away with the setting sun, which will otherwise be filtered today by a combination of high clouds and some high altitude smoke that we’ve seen several times so far this summer. As we get to tonight and Sunday, we’ll be in between an approaching front from the north and a weak area of low pressure to the south of New England. The front will help trigger a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday, especially in southern NH and northern MA, while the low to the south may send a few showers into the South Coast region a few times during Sunday. This system will still be sitting there but drifting slowly northeastward during Monday while the front will have pushed southward across the region and high pressure builds over eastern Canada. This combination may result in a few lingering showers into early Monday mainly over RI and eastern MA, otherwise a cooler maritime air flow will dominate the region during Monday. This gradually shifts to a more southeast to southerly air flow during Tuesday as the front that had gone by from the north later Sunday will be coming back northeastward as a warm front, and this will bring some clouds and possibly a shower to a few areas Tuesday but otherwise expect dry weather. The feel of summer is back for Wednesday with high pressure building off the US East Coast and increasing heat and humidity in our region as a result.

TODAY: Filtered sunshine. A pop up shower or thunderstorm possible southern NH late-day. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring southern NH and northern MA. A few showers possible near the RI and MA South Coast. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers mainly RI and southeastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy morning with a chance of showers RI and eastern MA. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 59-64. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible early. Lows 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

High pressure remains off the East Coast while a frontal boundary slowly approaches from the northwest increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms during August 12-13. Drier air should arrive with Canadian high pressure moving in during the August 14-15 weekend continuing through the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

Overall pattern looks dry with high pressure in control, but high pressure should sink to the south with time allowing it to become more humid again with an eventual increase in the shower and thunderstorm chance. We may also need to keep an eye on potential tropical activity in the Atlantic off the US East Coast by this time, at least by later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – August 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

High pressure builds across the northern Middle Atlantic States and Northeast today into Saturday, finally returning the more typical feel of summer to our region. However by later Saturday the center of the high will shift further east and there will be a weak area of low pressure south of New England while at the same time a cold front slowly moves into northern New England, with both systems then edging a little closer on Sunday. This will result in a slight up-tick in the chances for a few showers and thunderstorms, not so much later Saturday as I think activity will remain outside of the WHW area, but on Sunday. Even still, this will be more miss than hit, so all in all the weekend will not be too bad at all. The front to the north will slip down across the region Sunday night and an area of high pressure in Canada behind it will help deliver a maritime modified air mass to the region Monday into Tuesday while weak low pressure hangs out to the south of New England, keeping any of its shower activity offshore of the South Coast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except slightly cooler in coastal locations. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH including some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming in interior lower elevation areas. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SSW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 59-64. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Predominant pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast with warmer to hotter and fairly humid weather and limited shower and thunderstorm chances for our region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period as high pressure offshore gives way to a stronger high pressure area from Canada which will bring drier air to the region before humidity increases again later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – August 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

A frontal boundary sitting across southeastern New England with ripples of low pressure moving along it has a ribbon of rainfall about where we expected it would be, heaviest in the I-95 corridor, during this morning. The final wave of low pressure comes up and across the region during midday and the rain area will become a little more disorganized and showery before tapering off from south to north during this afternoon. Under the heaviest rainfall we can see some flooding issue, mainly road flooding and poor drainage area flooding, but conditions will improve this evening. This system skedaddles out of here tonight and high pressure builds from the Ohio Valley toward the Middle Atlantic States then offshore delivering warm and dry air to our region Friday and Saturday with moderate levels of humidity. A low pressure trough will approach from the northwest by late Saturday but any showers and storms associated with it are expected to occur in the mountains of western and northern New England. This trough line will be progressing through southeastern New England Sunday and will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but much of the day in any given area will be rain-free that day as well. High pressure to the north of the region will deliver a cooler easterly air flow on Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, heavy at times, I-95 belt eastward, with occasional mostly lighter showers to the west through midday, then numerous to scattered showers all areas first half of afternoon ending south to north thereafter with breaking clouds later in the day. Areas of fog. Highs 69-76. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Predominant pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast with warm and fairly humid weather and limited shower and thunderstorm chances for our region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period as high pressure offshore gives way to a stronger high pressure area from Canada which will bring drier air to the region.

C-19 Chat Post – August 5 2021