DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

As we head through mid May we are further away from the days of early spring which are often dominated by lingering Canadian cold, chilly ocean water, and a still fairly dynamic jet stream, and we are inching close to the days of summer which are characterized by a jet stream that is much weaker and often lifts itself at least over or many times north of our region. We’re in that transition time now. And the weather pattern will reflect it. There are no particularly strong surface features to impact the weather here during the next 5 days. What we will see through the weekend is daily diurnal cloud development, today from the lingering atmospheric conditions that triggered yesterday’s clouds and scattered showers, only today the clouds will not build enough to produce showers, as it is a tiny bit more stable with high pressure to our west edging a little bit closer. That high will never really “get here” as it sinks more to the south and allows an upper level disturbance to get a bit closer Friday then drift across the region during the weekend. These 3 days will feature an afternoon shower chance which runs at about 10% Friday, 30% Saturday, and 50% Sunday, but even with that 50/50 shot of passing showers Sunday afternoon, it’s not worth cancelling any outdoor plans for. Just keep an eye on the weather each of those days if you plan to be outside. By Monday, that disturbance will be beyond the region and we will see a slightly cooler, dry northerly air flow to start, which probably goes to an east or southeast wind during the day to the north of a frontal boundary which will have stretched out to our south. So while Monday will likely be free of any risk of rainfall, we may see an abundance of high and/or mid level cloudiness fanning into our area north of that boundary.

TODAY: Sunny start, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, mostly clear overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny start, then partly sunny midday and afternoon with isolated afternoon showers possible. Highs 67-74 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 67-74 except cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of ground fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny,. Scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Current idea is one low pressure area passes well to the south early May 18 and a disturbance from the west may bring a shower or thunderstorm later. High pressure should dominate thereafter with fair and mild to warmer weather at least to start, but then have to watch for the possibility of cooler air arriving from the north or from the ocean, and possibly a shower threat again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Best chance of wet weather around May 24-25 otherwise mostly dry with variable temperatures, not likely any significant departures from normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

A lobe of energy associated with upper level low pressure will cross the region from northwest to southeast today, bringing a shower threat mainly this afternoon then moves off to the southeast tonight setting the region up for a couple very nice days as high pressure builds into the region. Another disturbance will drift eastward across the Northeast this weekend, bringing pop up afternoon and early evening showers each day.

TODAY: Lots of sun to start, then lots of clouds with passing showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of ground fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny,. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Continued lower than average confidence on the outlook beyond a few days. Current thinking though is that low pressure passes south of the region May 17-18 with some clouds for a time but generally dry weather, then high pressure dominates with fair and seasonably mild weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

Best chance of wet weather mid period. Not convinced we are all that warm and may end up near to below normal in temperature once again.

C-19 Chat Post – May 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Upper level low pressure and it’s associated cold pool of air aloft will move across the region through Wednesday resulting in variable cloud patches and diurnal cloud development both days. The best chance of any shower activity will come in the form of a few sprinkles favoring the hills well north and west of Boston this afternoon, near the South Coast from a disturbance passing quickly through the region tonight, and one more lobe of energy with a trough swinging through during Wednesday afternoon. I’d previously thought Wednesday would have less of a chance than today, but that’s going to turn out to be the opposite. Anyway, by Thursday and Friday, a weak area of high pressure will provide fair weather, though by later Friday more cloudiness will be appearing in advance of the next disturbance, an upper level low pressure area which will bring cooler air in aloft and set the stage for pop up showers when we get to Saturday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A passing very light rain shower possible mainly well north and west of Boston this afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower during the evening mainly near the South Coast. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Upper level low pressure hanging around May 16 will help trigger some diurnal cloud and scattered shower development. A warm front approaching May 17 brings clouds and eventually some risk of light rain. Brief warm sector potential with a chance of showers/thunderstorms May 18. High pressure moves in to bring fair and slightly cooler weather later in the period. Not a high confidence forecast with quite a bit of uncertainty.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Leaning dry/seasonable to start and wetter/milder later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

A wave of low pressure brought 90% of its rain to the region from around midnight to sunrise this morning, and the other 10% will be exiting via the eastern coastal areas by mid morning. And that’s it. The rest of the day, clouds will start to break with the arrival of drier air, although complete regional clearing is not expected. Another disturbance has to move through from west to east tonight and may trigger a quick passing rain shower or two. An upper level low pressure area with lots of cold air aloft has to cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and will be responsible for the development of diurnal cloudiness each day (clouds that form from the sun’s heating of the ground and the heated moisture in the air rising into colder air above). Some of these clouds may grow enough to produce a few showers Tuesday afternoon, but they should not quite reach that capability on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday with nice weather, though by later Friday a disturbance will be approaching from the west and may already be sending at least some cloud patches into our sky.

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain exiting eastern areas early. Clouds breaking for partial sun by midday and afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind N to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then a cloud/sun mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

A slow-moving but fairly weak upper level low pressure area will drift across the region from west to east during the May 15-16 weekend, with both days having the risk of isolated to scattered showers, but mostly rain-free and seasonably mild. The early part of next week holds uncertainty. There are still signs of a warm-up, but how extensive it is and how long it lasts is a question any time there is chilly air still nearby, which there will be, in eastern Canada. More to come on that…

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Leaning cooler to start, then moderation, mostly dry, and maybe finally a chance of some rainfall later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

High pressure brings nice weather to southeastern New England for Mother’s Day, and I would like to wish all moms reading the blog today a very happy one! The rain, which has made an appearance many times on this day over the years, will be holding off until later tonight as low pressure makes a run at the region, passing through on Monday morning when the rain will come to an end. We will have a pool of chilly air aloft that has to come across the region between late Monday and sometime Wednesday, so we’ll see some cloudiness at times but minimal chance of any additional rainfall, just maybe a passing shower sometime Tuesday. By Thursday, high pressure is expected to provide pleasant spring weather.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for partial sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then a cloud/sun mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

A fair and mild May 14 before a disturbance from the west brings the chance of a few showers May 15. Generally dry weather, starting seasonable then a warming trend the remainder of the period, though by the end of the period way may see the approach of a cold front with a shower/thunderstorm risk.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Going with the warm-up scenario later in the 6-10 day period and a cool-down with mostly dry weather May 19-20 followed by a gradual moderation. Still fairly low confidence on the pattern this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – May 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure well offshore southeast of New England and an upper level disturbance sliding east southeastward across New England today into this evening will provide lots of clouds but very limited rainfall, amounting only to the few showers that can survive into the region from the west or develop in marginally unstable conditions later today into this evening. High pressure moves in and provides nice weather for Sunday – Mother’s Day, but high cloudiness will be streaming in rather quickly during the afternoon ahead of the next area of low pressure. This low is going to be on the weak side and rather quick-moving, with a shot of light rainfall for Sunday night into Monday morning before it departs oceanward. There will still be some upper level energy and cold air aloft hanging around through Tuesday, so lots of clouds may linger Monday even as drier air moves in. The core of upper level cold will be moving across the region during Tuesday. Lots of clouds are expected that day and any sunshine that does occur will just help initiate more cloud development, and possibly lead to a few pop-up rain showers. This, combined with a gusty northwesterly breeze at the surface will make for a rather chilly feel. This will ease a bit Wednesday but with still some cold air aloft we will see additional fair weather cloud development, though likely less extensive as the day before.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon and southern NH through eastern MA and RI by evening. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and a few possible rain showers early, then gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for partial sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then a cloud/sun mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

An area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather for the middle of next week. Not biting on current model solutions of a low pressure area bringing rain about May 14, but leaning toward a weaker system bringing a chance of rain showers around May 15. Fair weather and a potential warm-up after that if high pressure is stronger toward the Middle Atlantic region, which may be the case.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. It will depend on whether or not the warm-up occurs in the latter portion of the 6-10 day forecast period. If so, there may be a period of unsettled weather as another cool air mass arrives from Canada by the middle or end of the period. Timing and details will be impossible to figure out this far in advance. Just know that there is the potential for some volatility and a more drastic temperature change than I had previously indicated.

C-19 Chat Post – May 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

The latest US Drought Monitor release on Thursday indicated that conditions have improved somewhat, and that southeastern New England, while largely running abnormally dry due to a precipitation deficit (year-to-date) of up to a few inches, also has a large portion of eastern and southeastern MA with “normal” conditions at this time. Most of the drought is now confined to areas to the north and west. This is the result of a series of beneficial rain events since April. Will that trend continue? It’s hard to say for sure, but recent trends point to us sliding back into a drier regime. We’ll be in between systems today as low pressure evolves too far offshore for direct impact and an upper level low pressure area hangs back to our west. That upper low will come across the region Saturday with lots of clouds and a few rain showers around, but definitely nothing close to a rainy day. A small area of high pressure will cross the region with nice weather for a good portion of Sunday, but clouds will already be racing in ahead of the next low pressure system, which as very flat and progressive system will move through Sunday night and the first part of Monday, when we have our best chance at a light to borderline moderate rainfall. After this system exist, a dry and cooler air mass arrives during Monday into Tuesday with a northwesterly wind flow. Some cold air aloft may trigger cloud development and possibly a few pop up rain showers on Tuesday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

While model guidance indicates possible rainfall from low pressure passing south of the region May 14-15, this system may end up further south than currently shown by guidance. This should be a mostly dry and cool period for southeastern New England, but will watch to see what that system does.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

For now not making any significant changes to the forecast of continued west-to-east movement, limited rainfall, and near to below normal temperatures, but there are a few signs that the overall movement of systems may start to slow as we go through the period, and if so, the location of features will have implications on the specific weather here. Fancy way of saying there is still plenty of uncertainty in the medium range.

C-19 Chat Post – May 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

It’s a good thing we’ve had a handful of beneficial rainfall events recently. The trend is now back toward drier weather in the medium to long term. This will show even during the next 5 days when a system that initially looked promising for delivering more beneficial rainfall will fail to do so. After high pressure provides us with the nicest day of the week so far today, low pressure will develop south of New England on Friday, but another disturbance to its west which was forecast by much of the guidance to grab it and help it strengthen into a stronger storm, much closer, and much more rain-producing for here, is not going to do the grab and the low to the south will “get away” to the southeast, only grazing the area with clouds and some east to northeast wind later Friday, while the area that was to the west of it gets pulled southeastward and may clip our region with a few rain showers later Saturday. That is how your “storm” turns out. High pressure builds across the area with fair weather expected Sunday. A faster-moving low pressure area makes a run at the region late Sunday night into Monday with a risk for some rainfall, but that does not look like a strong system.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring Cape Cod overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers eastern coastal areas early. Chance of rain showers later in the day mainly west and south of Boston. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a possible rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

High pressure should be in control of the weather for most of this period. We’ll have to watch for low pressure to the south again later in the period which may very well stay to the south and miss the region. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

No changes to the overall outlook of a generally zonal or west-to-east large scale pattern with minor systems bringing a couple of rain shower threats and variable temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal.