C-19 Chat Post – July 30 2020

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

One cold front came through the region late yesterday but due to warm air aloft, shower and thunderstorm development was quite limited, with most of the activity (small downpours and a few thunderstorms) being limited to near the South Coast in the most humid air with a little help from convergence. Now we have a batch of less humid and slightly cooler air in the region today, which by definition will still turn out to be a hot summer day. You’ll just notice it being a little easier to take than yesterday was. Reminder: If you are working or exercising outside, it’s still important to take breaks and hydrate, even if it’s “not as bad”. Also of important note, while today will be a dry (rain-free) day for the vast majority of the the southeastern New England region, the front that went by yesterday is not that far to the south and some moisture still moving up along it has produced an area of showers and thunderstorms south southwest of New England overnight, and a piece of this may clip Martha’s Vineyard and the elbow of Cape Cod and likely crossing Nantucket during mid to perhaps late morning… We get some of the humidity back Thursday, but not really any up-tick in the heat from today. This will occur as another cold front approaches and moves into the region. Similar to yesterday, a few showers and storms may ignite with the approach and passage of this front, but I’m not expecting widespread activity and the risk of any severe storms is quite low. This front likely will hang itself up near the South Coast for a while on Friday and a little ripple of low pressure may move along it, keeping cloudiness over the region for a time on Friday and possibly some wet weather especially near the South Coast. Finally, high pressure should win out and provide nice weather for later Friday and Saturday as we make the transition from July to August. Sunday, look for an increase in both humidity and cloudiness as a some tropical moisture moves up from the southwest. While right now I think we may get through most of that day rain-free, at day 5 there is some uncertainty with the timing of such a threat, so just looking at it as a threat of afternoon showers at this time and will adjust and detail as it gets closer.

TODAY: Lots of clouds South Coast, especially Cape Cod, through mid morning with some passing rain showers islands and elbow of Cape, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast.. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

We’ll be watching a tropical system (currently TD 9 in the eastern Caribbean and forecast to become TS Isaias as it moves through the Caribbean and toward the Bahamas and/or South Florida by the weekend. While we have a pattern in place here that supports southerly air flow and tropical moisture, typical for early August, we’ll have to keep an eye on the track of this system, even if it dissipates over the Southeast US, for potential enhanced rainfall somewhere in the early to middle portion of this forecast period. Too early for any definitive call on this.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 29 2020

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A cold front crosses the region today, triggering showers and thunderstorms for some locations. This frontal passage will take the edge off the heat and humidity for midweek, and a second front will come through during Thursday cooling it down a bit more to end the week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity August 2. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 28 2020

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 27-31)

And down the home stretch of July we come! Mid summer heat will be dominant through Tuesday as upper level high pressure controls the weather here. But a cold front approaching on Tuesday will set off some showers and thunderstorms for some, possibly not all, of the region. What it will do for all the region is bring the heat and humidity down somewhat for midweek, a trend that will hang on right through Friday as a weak reinforcing trough passes by during Thursday. One potential fly in the ointment is we may have to watch that trough line early Friday as a little wave of low pressure may form on it, at least holding cloudiness in the region for a time on Friday and possibly becoming the focus for a little wet weather. But this part of the forecast is low confidence and subject to tweaking as the week goes along.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highest humidity this morning then may dry out slightly this afternoon especially north of I-90. Highs 92-99 except cooler parts of South Coast especially Cape Cod. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid again. Lows 73-80, warmest in urban locations. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity for the August 1-2 weekend. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 27 2020

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 26-30)

Summer heat, July-style. This along with building humidity will be with us through Monday and into Tuesday until a cold front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday and knocks the humidity and heat back a few notches by the middle of the week. Although a couple troughs still needing to swing through during midweek will keep the threat of a passing shower or storm in places both Wednesday and Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Less humid. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Cooler, dry end to July then a gradual return to warmth and humidity in the early days of August with limited shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Weak west to southwest flow aloft with that pattern being “typical” summertime, warm with limited but occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. Also may need to watch for a tropical system threatening the region at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 26 2020

9:00AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 25-29)

Three days free of thunderstorm threats but not free of heat and building humidity. That will be this weekend and Monday for southeastern New England as high pressure shifts south of the region and a westerly flow taps the heat and humidity south and west of the region and pulls it in here. Tuesday and Wednesday will be when we’ll see a couple disturbances enter the region, triggering the threat of showers and thunderstorms once again.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Leaning a bit more optimistic about dry weather and lower humidity to end July. More humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat may return to start August. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how these days play out, detail-wise.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Weak west to southwest flow aloft with that pattern being “typical” summertime, warm to hot, limited but occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. Also may need to watch for a tropical system threatening the region at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 25 2020

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 24-28)

Despite an active pattern in the last few weeks with frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms, we have managed to find ourselves in a basically unchanged “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought” status according to the latest Drought Monitor data. There are exceptions – a portion of southeastern MA, eastern CT, and Nantucket, that are not showing any significant dryness at this time. However with no switch to a pattern that is going to provide a series of widespread, beneficial rainfall, I don’t expect much to change over the next few weeks, and we may yet seen an expansion of dryness in the longer term. We will revisit this, but now to focus back on the regional weather in the shorter term, i.e., the next 5 days. The cold front that brought another round of thunderstorms to a good portion of the region yesterday sits just offshore this morning. Some higher level moisture is still streaming northeastward and will be responsible for a fair amount of high and some mid level cloudiness for a while today, though we will see it move out eventually. In addition, the lower level air flow only being weakly from the north will allow for some sea breeze development during the afternoon, and these may provide enough convergence to pop a few showers mainly across RI, eastern CT, and adjacent areas of southern MA, so I cannot make today a totally dry forecast for the southeastern New England region. I can do that tomorrow though, as a dry and stable air mass will be in place as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends itself into southern New England. This keeps winds light enough so that we may again see some sea breezes, but not enough moisture for any showers. Want more summer heat? Regardless of your answer, it’s coming back Sunday and lasting into early next week. This will come along with an increase in humidity once again as high pressure moves to the south of New England. A series of troughs approaching from the north will provide an increasing risk of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, though that risk may come down a little bit on Wednesday as slightly drier air sneaks in behind one of them. That’s a detail I’m not confident of yet.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds with limited sun morning. Fewer clouds with more sun afternoon, but isolated showers possible eastern CT, RI, and nearby southern MA. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind N up to 10 MPH except coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy southern MA southward with a slight risk of a shower early, otherwise mostly clear. Patchy fog forming in lower elevation areas (valleys, swamps, riverbeds, bogs). Lows 56-63. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms late in the day. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Warm to hot with a risk of showers and thunderstorms July 29 then a push of drier air is possible by July 30. Still uncertainty but cannot rule out a cooler/unsettled final day of July if we get low pressure south and high pressure north to set-up. Improvement would follow for the August 1-2 weekend. Still a lot of tweaking potential with this part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Mostly zonal flow, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – July 24 2020

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 23-27)

Yesterday’s shower and thunderstorm activity behaved about as expected. Today brings another threat of showers and storms, this time in a very warm and humid air mass ahead of a cold front, which will pass by during tonight and early Friday morning, bringing the threat to an end. Thunderstorms today may be strong to locally severe, and while I don’t expect this to be a widespread issue, all should be on the look-out any time this afternoon through early evening for the potential. Cooler and drier air arrives during Friday, behind the front, and sets up what looks like a nice late July weekend with driest air Saturday and a bit more humidity and heat Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will pass by late Sunday night into the early hours of Monday with just the slightest risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, otherwise Monday should be mainly dry and on the hot side.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny through mid morning with a brief passing light shower possible. Sun/cloud mix with showers/thunderstorms possible any time this afternoon . Thunderstorms may contain torrential rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. Humid. Highs 84-91, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH (variable, stronger, gusty near any thunderstorms).

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms possible evening, mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH, except variable and gusty near any storms early.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 88-95. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Higher humidity and a risk of showers / thunderstorms July 28 into July 29. High pressure north and low pressure south may combine for more cloudiness, onshore flow, and cooler temperatures July 30-31, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty in this part of the forecast. Improvement or nicer weather should take place by August 1 regardless.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Fairly zonal flow, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities in the early days of August.

C-19 Chat Post – July 23 2020