Wednesday July 9 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

We’re back in an unsettled weather pattern that started with a few showers and thunderstorms in the area yesterday that blossomed into a more concentrated belt of storms coming in 2 parts and giving much of the region from I-90 southward quite a lightning show including some areas of torrential rainfall. Today, the disturbance that triggered the final round of storms late last night is still moving through with additional showers and embedded downpours this morning, but this activity will diminish today as the disturbance departs. We are left with a light but regionwide flow of marine air from the Atlantic as a frontal boundary sits just to our south. Areas of fog will result, and a general cloud cover with limited breaks. Any breaks / solar heating along with existing surface boundaries can fire off a few more showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon – mainly near the South Coast and also inland generally west of I-495. As another disturbance crosses the region tonight, these will be morphed into a more general shower area that will give much of the region some needed rain overnight into Thursday, with heavier thunderstorms probably confined to areas well to the west – generally west of the WHW forecast area. This activity will diminish leaving us with just a lot of clouds and maybe a spot shower on Friday. Some weekend improvement seems in the cards as weak high pressure builds in, we go rain-free, and experience a modest warm-up.

TODAY: Areas of fog. A cloudy start with fairly widespread early showers and embedded downpours.. Mostly cloudy – partial sun possible – later morning on with pop up afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms mainly west of I-495 and south of I-90. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. A shower possible in the evening. Widespread showers return overnight including thunderstorms with heavy rain. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, tapering off west to east afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower possible. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Disturbance and frontal system brings a shower / thunderstorm chance to the region July 14 into July 15 followed by fair weather by the middle of next week. Next shower / thunderstorm chance comes at the end of the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Early period, moderate humidity and temperatures, mainly fair weather with high pressure to the north dominant, keeping low pressure to the south far enough away to limit shower chances. Mid to late period some indications of high pressure building aloft with hotter weather again.

79 thoughts on “Wednesday July 9 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    WIMP show here last evening. Sure there was some lightning and some rolling thunder none of which was awe inspiring.

    Frankly, I was disappointed. Didn’t get all that much rain here either and my lawn needs it.

    We’ll see tonight.

  4. Wow!! The house feels like a tropical rain forest it feels so damp!!! YUCK!!! I hate to have to run ACs with the outside
    temperature ONLY at 69!!!!!

    YUCK YUCK and more YUCK!!)@#*(!)@*#*!@()#*!@_#_!@*#_)!*@_#)@#*!_@#*_!@*#_*!@#*!_@#*!_@#*!@_#*_!@#*_!@*#*#!

    Calgary is looking might tempting…..

  6. Thank you. TK. Prayers for your mom continue. Hope you are taking care of you also.

  7. Thank you TK!

    The storms were quite loud with vivid lightning in the sleepy little town of Halifax.

    Wordle – took 4 guesses today

    2. 6 for me. Well, at least I got it.
      It finally jumped out at me. WISH it would jump out a little sooner. Getting rather frustrating. 🙂

  8. Yikes. One strike less than 0.1 from house and another doozy 0.3. The second was one of the most vibrant I’ve ever seen followed by a crack of thunder that left me a bit unsettled. It was distinctly a lightning bolt within another lightning bolt. I don’t know if there is a term for that but when I checked lightning pro, I was not surprised to see a double strike.

    1. Nothing close to us. Just some distant flashed and a few rumbles of thunder. Nothing remotely alarming. Just a complete ZERO here!

      1. Darn. I was hoping some would make it to you.

        Even the line that was too far from us to hear thunder gave us a literally constant lightning show for close to an hour.

  9. Thanks, TK!

    Hope Mom is improved. Continued prayers and best wishes for her improved health!

    Wild times between 12:45 and 1:00 this morning! Severe Thunderstorm Warning followed by a Flash Flood Warning. I am not sure what part of the region or county had the flood warning. We had 0.40. Quite the lightning show!

    1. I think SouthCentral had a lot of rain. But I wondered where the warning was for. I believe I saw one specific to my area. We had 1.32 with both systems combined.

  10. Colorado State has updated their seasonal hurricane forecast for the Atlantic and lowered their numbers a bit, but is still expecting an above normal season. The new forecast calls for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, with a seasonal ACE total of 140. The 30-year averages are 14.4, 7.2, 3.2, and 123 respectively. Their initial forecast in April was 17, 9,4, and 155.

    1. If I saw ACE before, I do not remember it. For those who also may not have remembered it:

      Seasonal ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, is a metric used to quantify the intensity and duration of a hurricane season. It’s calculated by summing the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds of all tropical storms and hurricanes during a season, at six-hour intervals, while they are at least tropical storm strength according to Wikipedia and StormGeo. This provides a more comprehensive measure of a season’s activity than simply counting the number of storms

    1. https://ibb.co/svdzknLj

      I don’t know. Clearly, the front is at the south coast as Long Island and the Vineyard are in the southerly wind soup.

      Seems to me a disturbance along it would cause the heaviest rain to be north of the front, so unless the front sags further south, I think the models showing further north for heavier rain somewhere have a better chance of verifying.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Hope your mother is doing okay. I’m sure they’re trying the heavy-duty antibiotics, like ampicillin.

    It feels like Manila or Saigon out there.

    Went to an air-conditioned place to cool off and froze. Left after 30 minutes. I don’t like AC when it’s set that cold, which it often is. Then of course I go outside and immediately get hit by a wall of swamp-like air. I can’t win in summer.

    But I did listen to my all-time favorite piece of classical music:

    Feliz Mendelssohn’s Violin Concerto, Op. 64, performed by the Berlin Philharmonic, conducted by Herbert von Karajan, with first violinist Anne-Sophie Mutter.

    Second on my classical hit list is Antonin Dvořák’s New World Symphony

    Third is Brahm’s only violin concerto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFl9xuYP5T8&t=114s

    More German composers round out my top 10. Along with the Czechs, they’re absolutely brilliant. All of them.

  14. Yesterday’s heavy rains where they did occur would be just run off, not really helping dried out lawns. Correct?

  17. Today will be less than 24 hours. It might be one of the shortest days ever recorded. It is forecast to be 1.3-1.5 milliseconds shorter than 24 hours.

    This has to do with the earth’s rotation, the position of the moon, and probably other assorted stuff. This will repeat on July 22nd and August 5th. If you have a USA atomic clock, you will “see” it. (BTW, atomic clocks are not all that expensive.)

    Anyway, I know that the 1.3-1.5 milliseconds will throw off your sleep tonight so please adjust your bedtime accordingly!

    1. Thanks – that’s very interesting.

      I wonder if I can get a partial refund from by ISP for the shortened month. 🙂

  18. Word from the hospital is she’s bouncing back and they’re thinking about a released to rehab as soon as tomorrow…

  19. Funny, I hadn’t even really realized until today that I’ve drifted away from the GFS over the last few months to the point I look at it “once in a while” and seldom have it influence me, and I feel like the result has been positive for forecast verification. What does that tell ya …. 😉

  22. Really glad to hear about your Mom, TK.

    One of my heroes in science is Fleming (penicillin); the other is Jenner (vaccines).

  23. Wasn’t hot today. Just wet.

    73 / 68

    I’m watching to see if whatever Is dropping down from the NE goes over here

  25. Sox up 4-0 after 5th.

    If they win, they’ll have back-to-back sweeps. They will also be 4 games over .500 … which hasn’t happened since August of last year.

    1. And a huge 4 game series vs Tampa, at Fenway, starts tomorrow. Tampa is 1 gm in front of the Red Sox for the last wild card spot.

      1. Tampa is two games ahead of the Sox for the second to last spot and Seattle is one for the last wild card spot I believe.

        1. Fun to see the Sox playing well.

          They need to finish this lead off tonight and then it’s a very meaningful series, which they haven’t had a lot of midway thru seasons the last few years. I’m looking forward to it 🙂

          1. Shouldn’t be a problem. Sox up 10-2. Yankees beating the Mariners. Could be tied for that last wild card spot in an hour or so. I agree. The team is becoming likable.

            1. Thanks, I forgot about the Mariners and they just lost. Yay, tied as you described.

  26. Eric F with another twitter post, this time a sounding that shows the column having moisture similar to the moisture available around a tropical system.

    I don’t think this event is a widespread 1-3 inch rainfall. My concern is, it’s 0.5 inches here and 0.7 inches there and I’m some tiny convergence zone, it’s an out of control amount.

  28. I am in West Hartford for a four day golf tournament and the weather definitely had a Florida feel to it. While it has not rained a lot this summer the rain threat feels present most days. We had a big downpour for the minutes and it just added to humidity. I didn’t play too well today as I was pretty tired from watching this great storms on the south coast from midnight to 2am.

        1. The 00z 3Km NAM, though not as impressed, is forecasting more rain than its 12z run earlier.

  30. Raleigh, NC getting crunched with rain

    Greensboro in the western half of this state, 3+ inches and going

    The line from NY southwestward is dumping excessive rains

    The rains earlier in TX, then NC from Chantal, now tonight again and what happens in southern New England tomorrow morning?

    Heart of summer, it should be humid and rain a lot, I would say this is the higher end of that average expectation, collectively.

    1. What time period do you expect the mechanisms to arrive in southern New England to support heavy rainfall? Looks to be approaching fairly quickly from the southwest and has already entered SW CT. 3-11 am?

      1. Sorry, I fell asleep, lol.

        Looks like a weak low is in SE CT and it’s this slowly blossoming area of heavier showers to be watched next 3-4 hrs. From NE CT to Boston’s SW suburbs.

  31. Tk, I’m sorry to hear of your mother’s health decline. I pray that she is able to go to rehab tomorrow and recovery is quick.

    1. We’re trying to decide whether to pull the plug on a planned drive to Rhode Island (Bristol area) this morning. Any updated insight would be appreciated!

    1. I didn’t see this until after I sent the above, but it confirms our decision. Thanks for responding!

  34. Once again thanks all for the well wishes for mom!

    It’s on the schedule to transfer her today – so we’ll see if that does happen and how it goes.

    New post…

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