Thursday July 10 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

One more unsettled day before we see improvement Friday and this weekend. Today’s main issue is heavy rainfall this morning, mostly in a band just to the south of Boston down to northern and central RI and eastern CT. While this band can have some thunderstorms embedded in it, the main threat from it is flash flooding to impact some property and of course commuting. Use caution in this area. The disturbance responsible is causing a pretty widespread rainfall across the region – although with a break ongoing as I write this along much of the South Coast. Finally the shower activity will diminish and just become isolated by midday on, but we’ll remain under a blanket of clouds with a cool onshore air flow. As weak high pressure begins to exert its influence on us Friday and especially this weekend, we’ll see improved weather. We can still see some pop up showers on Friday and some areas of fog each night / early morning, but the general trend is for fair and slightly warmer weather and moderate humidity heading through the weekend. The next trough and frontal system arrives Monday with higher humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers with possible embedded thunderstorms, heaviest eastern CT, northern and central RI, I-90 belt of MA during this morning with flash flood potential. Showers taper off becoming light and isolated midday on. Patchy fog this morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Considerably cloudy but breaks of sun develop. A pop-up shower in the afternoon favors southwestern NH and central MA hills. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 82-90. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Frontal boundary may still be over southeastern areas with shower and thunderstorm risk July 15. High pressure dominates with fair, warm to hot weather middle of next week. Watching for next frontal system with shower and thunderstorm threat for later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Pattern shift allows high pressure to build just to west and nearby with an overall warmer to hotter pattern. A west to northwest flow aloft can deliver passing showers and storms as disturbances move through the flow, but can’t pinpoint such events this far in advance.

92 thoughts on “Thursday July 10 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK!

    I’m glad not to face driving this morning right into that area you describe. My thanks to you, Tom, as well!

      1. You’re chuckling while I’m out back building an ark!

        I’m waiting for the rain to stop to take a measurement, though it hasn’t slowed down… I think we’ve had 4 inches of rain if my eyeballing is correct.

  4. Thanks, TK…

    Made it down and back to Green Airport without an issue.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK
    Didn’t miss out on the rain this time. Received/receiving a good slug of it this morning.

    Some areas just South of here really got hamnered!!@ Did well here but not like to the South.

    Comparing TK forecast temperatures with Eric Fisher and there is a disconnect. Looks to me as if Eric has caved to management and has skewed his forecast to what management wants.

    Just an observation and my thoughts. Hope I am wrong.

    1. Same. I just went outside in the thick of it. One bucket that was empty has 6 inches of water in it. I don’t have a rain gauge and it’s purely unscientific but I’m curious what official stats currently say.

          1. And the firehose is still going. We’ve gone well above average July rainfall totals.

            1. You sure have.

              Hopefully this convergence zone sags southeastward because it keeps building back with the SE inflow ahead of this disturbance.

              Hingham’s new total is 4.28”.

              If it sags a bit, you’ll probably get to 5. If it doesn’t, 6-10” is not out of the question by 10-11 am.

              1. We’ve easily coasted beyond 5.38. It feels a little less intense… hoping it slows down a bit more. We’ll definitely officially go over 6 inches easily even though my bucket went over that mark a while ago.

  8. Logan has only had 0.48 through 8 AM While areas just to the South have had 4+ inches

    Norwood has had 2.58 inches And your Saw Tom’s report about Hingham. WOW!!!

    1. 5.08” in Hingham.

      That must have been interesting to watch.

      It’s moderately raining here and we’re under dark green echoes.

  12. STILL MORE RAIN TO COME!!!!
    Perhaps not quite as heavy, but still additional rain.

    1. Please no more. LMAO. The last time I saw this much flooding in the yard – a pipe had burst in the street nearby and it took them two hours to even get out to fix it… so much water from that pipe. And guess whose property was on the downslope and received all of the water from said pipe? lol.

      There’s two things combined that I love: running and rain. So for me to wake up early for a run and say “wow, that is too much rain and too hard of a rain” that should tell you something.

  13. The worse commute into Boston this morning & it was due to flooding in Milton ( 2 hours )

  14. Paula Ebben on ch 4 sent out a tweet that part of the southeast expressway is shut down.

  15. The 00z HRRR and NAM caught onto the magnitude of this last night.

    The 12z runs earlier in the day were dropping hints at that point.

    That strip of area most hit looks to be out of this crazy rain rates at least.

    Next 1-2 hrs, it looks like Cohasset to the bay bridges for heaviest rates, I’m hoping not to the toll of what Canton, Blue Hills over to Hingham experienced.

    2. YIKES!! That’s some water there!!

      Good call NWS with the flash flood warning!!!!

  19. Good grief. It’s chilling reading comments and amounts above. Wow. Be safe all please

    I’m thinking I’m not in that jackpot area but am just north of it ? We’ve had 1.25 here which I thought was a good slug of rain till I read here

    1. Not sure where precisely in Hingham it’s located because I’d estimate I got an inch above what it currently says. I’ll have to take a ruler out again and measure the water in the bucket.

      1. 7 inches even in the bucket that’s on a flat surface in the open (not catching rain from any other source than the sky) out back. Meanwhile 5.76 at the linked location (which based on lat/long is 3.2 miles away from my location)

          1. Thankfully not. We used to have flooding there at even one inch of rain but it got reinforced after a house fire in 2010.

  21. One more pulse, NOTHING like this morning’s rainfall rates, but probably good for another .25 to .5 solidifying between 495 and 128 and headed for the hardest hit areas.

  23. Just got an alert on my phone for Flash Flooding in Boston.
    I nearly jumped out of my chair, the alert was so loud!!

    No flooding here at my location.

    1. Those alerts can really get you sometimes — but I’m thankful for them even if they don’t apply 99% of the time.

  25. As of 10 AM, about 1.19 inches at Logan. Plenty of rain, but pales in comparison to areas to the South!!!

    We probably got a little more here as we a SW of the airport,
    BUT still NOTHING like to the South.

  27. It took me the last three days to get to 2.71. I can’t imagine more than twice that for some here

      1. Wow. That’s cool. I’ll share with the friend I mentioned who failed today. Thanks

    2. I failed. Had the last 4 letters in correct order after 4 guess, but tried the wrong word for the next 2 tries as there were several possibilities. Just bad luck on this one.

      1. About the same here, JpDave, had 3 of them in the right spot and just couldn’t finish it off.

      2. My friend who I’ve never seen fail, Failed today too. He had 4 (I think) with the last four and couldn’t get first letter either.

        Sometimes I go back to what I did for the first few years….pencil and paper. I have a pretty good system. It doesn’t always work but did today.

    1. Sounds like a great location for the camp! I guess they don’t learn down there in Texas!

      1. There are investigations into FEMA flood map accuracy, sirens for the area having been denied, and the nws folks responsible for getting word to specific areas being short staffed causing them to notify the area too late.

        These are all in progress from what I understand.

        Also and something that truly has me seeing red…..two weather folks on FB have shared a post asking how people feel about cloud seeding. I know some folks here also follow one of them, not sure about the second. I’ve blocked both

        1. They were NOT short-staffed. This has been debunked numerous times. They brought in extra meteorologists. Normally they have 2 on staff, they had 5 that night.

  31. Wish I had better news today, but I’m afraid things have reversed course with my mom and heading in a not-good direction.

    Doctors at this point say that things are slowly shutting down and the decision has been made to move her to rehab not to recover, but to be made more comfortable than the hospital can make her.

    It’s a great rehab and they know her well there. She’ll be in good hands for whatever time is left. And there’s always the chance for a miracle. Time will tell…

    I’ll update when I can.

    1. So sorry TK. A similar situation happened to my mother so I do know the feeling.

    3. TK I am so sorry to hear this news. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family during this time.

    5. My prayers for peace for your Mom, you and your family, TK.
      Please take care of yourself.

    6. My thoughts are with you TK, your mom and your family. May she be comfortable and I hope you have the opportunity to spend a lot of time with her in the coming days.

  32. We went through an almost identical health situation with my father a bit of a rallying then we had to do the home hospice. He lasted a week.
    Sending my best to you and your family TK.

  35. I’ll be tied up alot in the days ahead, but the blog will continue to be updated daily and I will add commentary here and there.

    One comment about now – been hearing a lot of “this never happens” around social media today about heavy rain south of Boston. That’s incorrect. Look back at statistics and you’ll find many, many, MANY heavy rain events of 4+ inches. If one happens to occur over a high-impact area, it’s going to be blown out of proportion by media / social media – the latter of which is so much more “available and accessible” that it can make everything seems extraordinary. And it may be “extraordinary” in one or several aspects, but they take it to the extreme – i.e., go way overboard with it.

    Let me give you a PRIME example…

    After some air tragedies in the first half of 2025, media started to focus on reporting every single incident. Meanwhile, actual FACTS and STATISTICS show that air incidents (crashes, etc.) were DOWN, NOT UP, in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Facts. That’s it.

    Heading off to the rehab shortly…

  36. So sorry to hear about your mom, TK. Take the time you need to be with her and don’t worry about the blog updates!

    1. Sometimes a good portion of the regular routine helps, but I’ll definitely scale back wherever needed. Thank you. 🙂

  38. TK please don’t worry about the blog. Our thoughts are with your mom, you and your family.

  40. TK, I’m sorry to hear the news about your mom. We have just gone through this in part of our family. My prayers are with all of you.

  41. To TK,

    I am sorry about your mother. I understand where things are at and it was the same case with my own mother a number of years ago. It is so difficult. My thoughts are with you.

  42. TK – You and your family are in my thoughts at this difficult time. I wish you all peace.

  44. Tk I am so sorry to hear about your Mom . Please let me know if you need anything at all .

  46. Late night weather thoughts…

    Local news saying that this morning’s heavy rain caught everybody offguard.

    Not correct. This was a well-forecast event and many forecasters predicted up to a few to several inches of rain as a potential, including flash flooding.

    Once in a while you have a rain event that the drainage system is overwhelmed, because it’s not built to handle it, and the infrastructure adds to the problem. We build roads that collect water, sometimes like animal troughs.

    These weather events have ALWAYS happened. Always!!! They are NOT NEW!!!!And the mainstream media needs to stop acting like we’ve never had things like this happen in the past. Statistics will show they have. I mean come on. The #’s are RIGHT IN FRONT OF US, but they are systematically ignored, except those of us who would like to talk about the entire picture, not just the cherry-picked version. It’s time to put the drama aside. It’s time to start focusing on where the actual immediate problems are – and it’s our own design of our living space.

    1. Nevertheless, is it acceptable to mark July 10, 2025 as the “South Shore Flash Flood of 2025” for weather historical purposes?

      I hope Jimmy will post a reminder one year from now here on the blog with official NWS data. Now that I am living in Quincy it won’t take much to refresh my memory. All I had to do was look out my window. It was all the talk at the dining hall yesterday morning here at my facility during the event.

      If the temperature was 35-40 degrees colder…40-60” of snow for the South Shore and just over a mere foot for Boston.

      May I move the decimal point once to the right…just for laughs? 🙂 ❄️

      1. It’s a very significant event, no doubt about it. My issue has been for a long time with media making it sound like this is the first time it’s occurred in the area – their wording – the people they interview and how they edit those. If that was the first, what was Leominster. What was any set of major rain / flash flood events we can go back and look at through the years / decades? I just get tired of the drama, really. Odds are, unless you live in a really, really flood prone area, if you live around here you’re only going to see one event if that magnitude, maybe a couple, during your lifetime, unless you chase them………

        And then there are other areas in the country, Texas for example, that are much more flash flood prone. The difference though, Texas is huge in comparison to MA, so that’s still going to spread the events out in that way, although history shows, for example, the Guadeloupe River is particularly high on the list for flash flood prone basins.

        All I am asking is for them to spare the unnecessary drama (they won’t, ratings, clicks, etc.) and keep things in historical perspective (the won’t do that either – takes away from the drama which again sells). Bottom line: My real issue is news has become entertainment and not really just news anymore. To me, that’s sad.

  47. So sorry to hear about your mom, TK. I will continue to pray for her. You take care, too. At least she is in a rehab that knows her and will take good care for her.

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