Tuesday October 7 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)

108 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

One more “feel of summer” day today with an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of an approaching cold front, which will deliver showers late tonight into Wednesday as we transition to a cooler air mass at midweek. Dry weather returns from west to east as the front moves offshore later Wednesday, though some areas south of Boston may not see clearing until after the sun goes down. Dry weather dominates Thursday through Saturday. This period of time starts breezy and cool with high pressure centered to the west, then goes tranquil but still cool Friday as the high builds overhead, then we see a temperature moderation Saturday as the high slides offshore and we get its return flow from the southwest.

TODAY: Fog and stratus areas limit sun in some areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with most sun late morning to mid afternoon and less sun from west to east later in the day. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely overnight from west to east. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Showers end midday from west to east with a clearing trend late-day from the west. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Radiaton fog patches. Patchy frost low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

The big question to be answered is how does the weather turn out for the balance of the long weekend (October 12-13)? Guidance is inconsistent on how to handle low pressure down the coast to the south. Run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistency is at maximum rendering the guidance untrustworthy. Given the pattern overall and recent guidance biases, in general, my tendency is still to lean toward the drier scenario with the low staying to the south. There’s at least some chance that it drifts far enough north to spread more clouds into the region Sunday and a chance of some rainfall, especially in southern areas, later Sunday or Monday, but this seems at the moment to be the most extreme foul weather scenario potential, which isn’t the best news since we are in need of rain to slow down expanding dry conditions. Either scenario is followed by mainly dry and slightly cooler weather heading into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall pattern still looks dry with zonal flow and a couple quick shower threats from passing fronts.Temperatures variable but close to or slightly above normal overall.

108 thoughts on “Tuesday October 7 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    61 overnight, 63 now

    Ocean temp: 63 ( Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 5

    1. I somehow saw it in 4, not having a great deal to work with after 3 guesses. I’ll take it.

        1. Good going. I think I need a better pair of glasses as I am just not seeing the words! 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. I was ready to make a solid guess at 4.
              Used a valid word (think the old show land of the lost) that I thought for sure was it, but NOPE. It was not. So the next guess on 5 got it.
              I needed the 3rd guess just to get in that position.

    1. Tk is likely correct on this one and that whole system stays South. We shall see. I one way I hope so, but we DO need the rain, so I am good either way.

        1. OH, my bad. I think I should just go back to bed. It has been a very bad day already and it’s just getting started!!!!!

          1. You CLEARLY stated overnight into tomorrow!!!!!
            Apparently my not seeing words affliction has carried over to WHW!!!!!

            1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

              I don’t trust that weekend system to produce much of anything up here.

              Hoping for a solid rain, but not optimistic

  12. Approaching cold front doing a nice job advecting in the moderate-higher humidity as dps now in the low to approaching mid 60s.

  15. This upcoming 3-day weekend would be a good opportunity for Murphy’s Law to apply for a change. We could really use a good dose of beneficial RAIN!

    I have noticed that when we get into these “drought” situations, rain events tend to remain south and/or OTS much like snow events in the winter.

  16. Thanks TK. Still a tricky forecast with that coastal low 🙂

    Unrelated: Read any NHC forecast discussion these days, and chances are you’ll see the Google Deep Mind model mentioned. It’s pretty much become their go-to on everything.

    We are rapidly nearing the end of “traditional” numerical weather prediction. My guess is that if models like the GFS and Euro exist at all by ~2030, it’s going to be as completely redesigned models that are the same in name only, or else as second-rate legacy products to a vastly superior fleet of AI models.

    1. When there is reference to Google’s DeepMind, it can be confusing because DeepMind, I believe, has several AI models … GenCast, GraphCast, MetNet, NeuralGCM, and some sort of a tropical storm model. Some of these are deeply involved with traditional models. For example, GenCast was/is using ECMWF data and GraphCast was/is involved with the GFS/ECMWF.

      Some of the AI models were “trained” using traditional model data but it’s hard to keep up with what’s going on. The other day I saw a track for Jerry labeled DeepMind and I had no idea which model they were using or if the track was an average mean of all the AI models.

      2. I definitely get confused on it too. I think when they reference it, they’re referring to an ensemble of all those components you mentioned, and treating the ensemble mean/highest probability forecasts as “the model”. But yeah it’s definitely not a single deterministic source.

  17. Back to the drawing board on the weekend system, lol

    Not agreeing on where it is, but the 12z ICON and 12z GFS sure seem a lot more phased btwn northern and southern stream energy

  19. Someone mentioned AI.

    For my work, it’s mostly unusable, certainly unreliable and inaccurate (most of the time, actually). I actually find it burdensome, because when I think I can cut corners and use AI the information it spits out is not accurate. So I have to go to my usual method of a properly vetted literature review.

    1. I’m not surprised. I use it for a personal issue that I’m dealing with. In that instance and because it is closed subscription, it is exceptional.

      1. Such an amazing place.

        We always stayed at the eastern slope inn… not quite on the same level but an old one too. So I’ve never been to the mount Washington. Hard for me to believe with the years we spent in the area

    2. I actually just recently took advantage of a 30% off deal Omni was running and made a reservation there for the last weekend in January. We did it last year and had a great time. Did cross country Saturday and downhill Sunday. It is one of the nicest cross country ski areas in the east and the scenery is just amazing if you hit the weather right. And of course the hotel is magnificent and in a league of its own.

      1. Love this. My son and friends used a coupon for New Year’s Eve a number of years ago. I forgot about the cross country trails. I always did downhill. But know they are known for cross country.

        1. We stayed in the condos at Bretton woods on our company trips. They are amazing but in a new way

        2. Both the downhill and cross country areas are beautiful. The downhill area isnt terribly challenging but the snow conditions and views were great and they have a lot of nice cruisers and easy to moderate gladed runs.

          Its definitely helpful to have a coupon or discount to go there (or go in the off season). The hotel has gotten very expensive.

  23. The short range guidance is starting to shorten up the amount of time it rains in any given location. No surprise. This was about where a little wave of low pressure forms on the front as it goes by, and it forms west of our area which first holds the rain band back a bit, and then whips it through more quickly.

    Lower rain amounts (even tho some downpours can occur), shorter duration. Sun should return to all areas in the I-95 belt westward starting early afternoon and may appear all the way to southeastern MA before sunset Wednesday. This marks the end of the warm spell and for the region no more shots at reaching 80 degrees until sometime next spring.

    Also the potential is now for low temps falling below freezing in some locations Friday morning, and we may see the growing season come to an end ahead of normal in some locations.

  24. Blue Jays are toying with the Yankees in this game so far.

    Up 6-1 and still batting with 1 out in the top of the 3rd..

    I would be exceedingly pleased to see the Yankees get destroyed in this game and have their season come to an end.

    1. Of course I say that and now the Yankees are having an inning. But I don’t believe in sports jinxes, so we’ll see how it goes.

      1. WordPress isn’t sophisticated enough. 😉

        Hey though, at least I like your hockey team (they have been my #2 team since the 1970s). 🙂

    1. NO deficit now!

      They certainly are not going to lay over and die despite what it looked like earlier in this game.

      This has the makings of a very long game though…

  26. Here you go Mark.,, maybe.

    To “create a middle finger” on a WordPress site, you can insert the middle finger emoji () using your operating system’s emoji keyboard or by copying and pasting it from a website. Alternatively, if your theme or plugins include Font Awesome support, you can use the Font Awesome middle finger icon code, such as .
    Using the Middle Finger Emoji
    Find the emoji: Use your operating system’s built-in emoji keyboard (e.g., Command + Control + Space on Mac, or the Windows key + period/semicolon on Windows 8+).
    Copy and paste: If your OS doesn’t have one, find a website with the middle finger emoji and copy the symbol ().
    Insert into WordPress: Paste the emoji into your WordPress post or page editor.

  27. Aaron Judge finally has a postseason moment hitting a game tying three run home run in the bottom of the 4th.

  28. Wait. I thought the season ended when the Red Sox didn’t qualify… could I have been wrong yet again??????

  29. Yay! Now you can flip me off properly Mark. 😉 Go for it!

    BTW the Yankees are now in the lead by a run. 🙂

    I still don’t believe in jinxes. 🙂

  30. TK – I hope you are correct about no more 80s until next spring. Any more 70s? Can they go away as well?

    I imagine 60s will always be with us throughout the winter from time to time.

    1. This area commonly touches or exceeds 70 a few times from here on, obviously becoming less likely with time. But 70s are NICE, so I’m not sure why anyone would wish away a late season 70+ day. 🙂 It’s not like it’s hot. 🙂

      A few areas have a shot to reach the low 70s on Saturday. That’s the “warmest” day I see out of the next 7 to 10.

      1. I want the chill now. I am DONE with this summer (like) warmth. 🙂

        I believe the latest 70 is in November sometime during the 1950s?

        1. Boston has hit 70+ in December on several occasions.

          Dec 1 2001: 71
          Dec 4 1982: 70
          Dec 6 1982: 70
          Dec 6 2001: 72
          Dec 7 1997: 76
          Dec 9 1966: 70
          Dec 29 1984: 73

  31. I think they should just retire the name “Karen” from the list before it even forms so the media can stop making stupid jokes about the name. 😛

    I haven’t seen it in any Boston media thankfully, but several meteorologists I follow around the country – some of them have done it. Ugh. IMO it’s a dumb joke and a waste of posting time and space. That’s my 2 cents I’m glad to give. 😉

    1. What did I miss re Karen. Been a rough day so have not kept up. Sorry. We also have Debbie downer. Is that the same

      1. Just the general use of the name about certain people on social media. The joke is rather inevitable, but I don’t think legit media outlets need to be making it.

        A trend I’ve seen in the last few years for some actual professionals to start lowering their standards. I am still of the opinion that most of this is driven by the bosses for clicks and shares – and it’s unfortunate it happens at all.

        This is why I run my site the way I do. Do I joke about things? Sure, I am not one to shy away from a pun or a joke now and then, but usually I try to make it fit the discussion in a good way. 🙂

        Boston media (what I’ve seen of it – more Ch 10 than anything) has been quite good of late. Kudos indeed. I haven’t paid too much attention to the other stations of late, but the posts I’ve seen have been good. 🙂

        Hope you have a better day tomorrow!

        1. Understood. I was never a fan of Karen or Debbie. But not sure what this referred to. Thank you. A way to go before a better day but fingers crossed

  32. The phasing on the 00z icon continues to improve with a more intense coastal storm yet.

    Is this an outlier or something to be seen in all the other 00z model runs?

    2. Before, the ICON was the only model not bringing it up fully. Recently it’s shifted in the other direction. I don’t find the model reliable enough for regular use, so I’m not as versed on its biases as I am with some of the other guidance.

  34. Guidance is trending cooler for Friday daytime. Adjustment probably in my high temp fcst tomorrow’s update.

    After dressing for the feel of summer the last few days, I’m going to be reaching for the heavier sweatshirts / hoodies … I am going to 2 high school football games late this week (Thursday in Woburn and Friday in Marshfield) and both look rather chilly!

  35. And the Yankees live to play another day! Good news for Mark & JJ. After trailing 6-1, they rallied and then some for a 9-6 win. The two teams go to Game 4 tomorrow!

    In fact, all 4 series can end tomorrow with wins by Seattle, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles. Will they all end? I’m going to bet no.

      1. The Red Sox didn’t really have anything to do with tonight’s result. 🙂

        They were underdogs going into the wildcard. I’m just happy they made the playoffs after half the fan base had them counted out after the first week of the regular season. 😉

  36. TK – I’m with Vicki. What is it about the name “Karen” to be made fun of? Where’s the joke?

  37. Boy, the northern stream energy on these newer runs really looks impressive !

    I think we might be headed for a deep, intense east coast cyclone.

    Might unleash most of its fury on the mid Atlantic and not necessarily New England.

    While the king tides end Friday, the tides this weekend everywhere are no joke.

    A sub 990mb system will cause problems wherever the worst onshore wind sets up.

  38. I might offer this setup has potential to be more impactful than if you had a cat 2 hurricane coming up the coast.

    Sure, if your near the hurricane, you’d have a big impact, but this scenario could be intense over a much, much larger area.

  39. Again, not saying it’s New England, it could be the mid-Atlantic …..

    But one reason I could believe in an intense cyclone scenario is …… the atmosphere hasn’t really had a big release, if you will, on this side of the hemisphere.

    It’s been a blah, muted hurricane season, I don’t recall a big mid latitude cyclone in a while.

    I just kind of think there’s a lot of energy in the ocean that needs to be released and even though it would be done differently than in a tropical system, an intense mid latitude cyclone is definitely one way the atmosphere can release some energy and use up some oceanic heat content.

    1. Ugh, the 0z GFS and 0z Icon now showing a full fledged rainy/wind blown nor’easter Sunday night into Monday.
      Was hoping for a miss with this one as my son will be home for the holiday weekend and we have tickets to the “Trail of Terror” in Wallingford Sunday night.

      Not sure why the Canadian isnt running and Euro isnt out yet but not liking the trends so far today/tonight.

  40. TK, I spared you the FU emoji as the Yankees took care of that for me tonight. Keep the snide remarks coming…..it is working!!

    1. Haha!! Of course. 🙂 Hey you already got my Sox. What else do you want? A world series? 😉

  42. A night of insomnia ……

    Euro has a stronger cyclone too, stronger phasing but its evolution keeps the system further south, which is quite possible.

    But it’s another model with a stronger cyclone.

    Interestingly, the euro AI was kind of like, meh ….

Comments are closed.