DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
An upper trough moves slowly through the Northeast today through Tuesday. It first produces unsettled weather from an initial low pressure area approaching from the southwest later today when its warm front generates some rainfall, especially later this afternoon and evening. A low level onshore flow will add moisture for drizzle and fog tonight into early Monday, and as the first low’s cold front reaches the coast Monday, additional low pressure triggered by the upper trough will prolong rain chances through the day, which finally come to an end in the evening as the low moves by and pulls the front offshore. Behind this comes a shot of colder air for Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, along with a mix of sun and abundant clouds as the upper low still has to finish crossing the region. These clouds can produce a sprinkle of rain or a light snow shower (especially in higher elevations) but no serious precipitation will occur. It will be “seriously chilly” and quite breezy however. So if you plan to be outside for Veteran’s Day ceremonies or any other reason, my suggestion is to dress for below normal chill and a biting breeze with wind chill temps in the 30s. A disturbance in a northwesterly air flow will bring lots of clouds to our region Wednesday, though I expect any light precipitation to stay north of our region. This will be followed by fair and windy weather Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the mid week period.
TODAY: Partial sun early favoring eastern MA and the South Coast, otherwise mainly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA to south central NH early to mid morning. Rain chances increase from south to north late-day. Chance of thunderstorms South Coast region end-of-day. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Occasional drizzle. Periods of rain evening including a thunderstorm chance mainly Cape Cod area. Temperatures steady 48-55 or may rise slightly. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periods of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
The upper flow sends one more disturbance our way via the Great Lakes from the west northwest around November 15 with brief light precipitation possible. After this, the upper flow shifts to take a more robust low pressure system into the Great Lakes mid to late period. Depending on the degree of high latitude blocking in place, we’ll have to watch for that system, if it occurs as prognosticated, to try redeveloping and/or cutting off closer to our area with a greater thread of unsettled weather. This is not a high confidence forecast but a current best-guess. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
The pattern that establishes itself toward the end of the 6 to 10 day period continues here as well, although this outlook does remain lower than average confidence at this time and I’ll continue to monitor pattern trends and medium range guidance’s reaction to them. No temperature extremes indicated.
Thank you, TK
Up to 40 from a low of 38
I’m hopelessly lost on Wordle with two letters (one in correct place) after 3 tries. Would love to have you or anyone here join us
Me too !
After 4 guesses, I have 1 letter in the wrong spot.
After a 5th guess, I have 2 in the correct spot, 1 in the wrong spot and have no clue as to what to do.
I’m going to have to give in and miss the train soon 🙂
I started putting in the few remaining letters I had and the first 3 times, it wasn’t a word.
Last time, it took and somehow worked.
I have no idea of the word.
Good luck everyone, I’m celebrating 6
This will be the day JPD gets it in 3. 😉
Yes 🙂
Yes
Almost. Missed by 1 letter. Got it in 4.
Never heard of the word.
Awesome Tom. I think I’ll put it aside till after church
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK
I got Wordle in four.
Let’s all try to slip that word into a conversation today! 🙂
lol, I will have to look up the definition first!
It’s a doozy. That’s for sure
Don’t bother, just use it at random because it sounds good! 🙂
Yikes. VERY well done
YES!!!
For someone on Outer Cape Cod at 8:20 a.m. on this Sunday morning, the sun is shining and it’s beautiful and they are wondering. “Rain? There aren’t even any clouds yet!” 🙂
It won’t last, but that’s how it is right now.
Thanks TK.
1,353 ❄️
Every day I wonder if it’s a record.
They don’t record it by 6 inch snowfalls, because it’s a useless statistic.
It would probably be one of the longest observed times without a 6 inch or greater snowfall at the airport, but the period of record there is relatively short, so it makes a useless statistic to begin with even more useless.
The only “use” is the fun in counting the days. 🙂
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 5. Consider it lucky to even get it at all!
Also nice Sue!!
The Official NWS Snowfall up to Wednesday AM.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=expected&2025020905
Dear heavens. I made up words like Tom did and got 4. I think I made up a word too. I looked up meaning and still don’t know what it is
Ditto
Good morning TK
47 overnight, 54 now.
Ocean: 53
Wordle: 4
And thank you.
Excellent JPD. We all got it. Celebration in the dining car
All the 4’s today, your conductors.
Outstanding job !!
Thanks TK
Good question I saw from BGWX on X.
What was the one winter storm as a kid or I guess as an adult that changed your life forever in terms of loving the snow?
For me it is the March 1993 Superstorm. A couple days prior one of our meteorologists in CT Geoff Fox said the Big Khuna is coming on Saturday. It sure did. My Saturday bowling league was cancelled. The snow came up close to me kneecaps. I was 9 years old at the time. It was close to a foot of snow when the storm ended. From that point on I have enjoyed snowstorms.
The very first one that laid down enough snow for sledding etc. 🙂
I couldn’t tell you when it was, but I’d say perhaps around 1950 or so. 🙂 🙂 🙂 I was living in Walpole at the time. I was 3 years old and was at the bottom of the hill and some dirt bag hit me with their sled as they came down the hill. I was told the sled didn’t break my leg, but the way I fell on it did.
I’m old enough that I could say the Blizzard of 78.
But, I really think it was this street light at night and from my room’s view, I could use a big branch to block the light itself and it would look like it was snowing even harder. So that 🙂
I don’t quite love snow as much now due to the way everyone drives in it and of course, as a teacher, it can make the school year go very late into June.
Blizzard of 78 takes em all imho. NOTHING has compared since, not to me anyway. I was in SNOW HEAVEN during that event! I loved it beyond belief!!
It was. Taking the sled with my dad to Demoulas (now Market Basket) to get food, during the many days no one was on the road after the storm, is a vivid memory to this day. Then, of course, walking back with a sled full of bags of food. Remember that more than the snow falling during the storm, itself. My uncle on my mom’s side was amongst those stuck in his car on 128.
There are so many. 78 when I was stuck (big smile) at Mac’s apartment for a week. And the several that have arrived on our Dec 9 anniversary. But my memories of days heading out the my brother are at the top too
Congrats on all wordlers for even getting the stinken word today.
Stinkin is one of the words that came to mind. Not the first but a lot more polite.
The flowers at church today were in memory of Mac’s passing 10 years ago this Tuesday
https://ibb.co/s9nBthJQ
https://ibb.co/Lzyy8J87
So nice.
10 years, wow
My mom was 14 years this past August
Time …….
Thank you both. And Tom warm hugs to you. Time says it all
Beautiful
Thank you !
Anyone have a rough idea of when showers might arrive here? My granddaughters horse thanks you
https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Link 2, there are some light showers developing locally
Link 1, there are some heavier showers developing further away.
So, dampness anytime if one of the lighter showers pass overhead and heavier showers later?
Thank you Tom
Thanks, TK
Tied in Tampa Bay, 7-7!
I heard Tony Romo mention how humid it is ….
Tampa airport with a 75F dewpoint.
They have a good tropical, air mass in place down there. Flow right off the still-very-warm Gulf. Not unusual even for November. 🙂
Indeed.
I’ve been lucky to be in Florida the last 2 February’s, that much later in the cold season and even then, we experienced a 70F dewpoint, even in Tampa last year.
But, that might make the brief upcoming cold snap for them even more noticeable.
Some records are gonna go down with this upcoming one. Not for the Northeast. This one is aimed squarely at the Southeast, in terms of departures from normal.
I finally saw it – a comment on a page somewhere that says “wow, winter is off to a crappy start”.
News flash: The half way point of autumn was November 6. Winter begins on December 21. Not sure what has gotten into people’s heads that they suddenly thing winter begins the day the time change takes place. This is what I like to call “retail thinking” – the same planning that puts out the Christmas stuff in the stores in late August…
Yup. There are some folks who want snow so bad, they start judging the season on Nov 1st, coo-koo !
The Christmas tv ads with snow falling all over the place doesn’t help. Plenty of leaves still on the trees locally. Too much “Christmas” too soon.
But we’ve always had that. Even back in the 1980s (and yes, I kept track for years) the average date of the first Christmas commercial was October 10 to 15. That’s about the same now, despite the merch coming out earlier.
It’s really more a social media thing.
Long way to go, but I like the way the Patriots look today. A little bit of a slow start, but they’ve overcome that and then some. Now to keep it going through the 2nd half…
Not a fan of the Bucs hits.
A few questionable ones for sure.
I see a lot of bubbly cloud tops to our south, which signifies elevated convection, perhaps enough to even create a few rumbles of thunder later for Cape Cod / Islands. We’ll have to watch for that.
P.S. .. another thing to watch for, but this is a couple days away still. The HRRR has become rather bullish for snow showers Tuesday midday and afternoon. It will be cold enough to support them. Just a matter of instability / moisture. I’m curious to see what RRFS does (18z run coming out now).
History of lightning strikes with cells south of Block Island:
https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;y=41.6154;x=-69.5105;z=6;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
Still a little work to do to clean up some details, but who thought the Patriots would be 8-2 after Week 10? That’s right, nobody.
Wait. I did. And I am betting you did
I figured maybe just over .500 at this point. 🙂 Definitely not 8-2. But I’ll take it!
Patriots…WHEW!!! 🙂
YAY Patriots!!!
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Ok !
Raining moderately now.
https://weather.us/lightning/massachusetts/20251109-2140z.html
Thanks, TK.
0.36 in at the nearby Marshfield airport.
Saw a 1” amount on Cape Cod close to those red echoes.
Nice little squall line going through there for sure…
From McDaniels. Jones could have used this but I think (hope) mac jones is doing all right.
Patriots OC Josh McDaniels vows not to “over coach” the magic out of Drake Maye’s electric playmaking ability.
#Patriots #DrakeMaye #Playmaker #fblifestyle
I know I’m late to the party. Wordle in 5. Brutal word. Never heard of it in my life.
Well done to get it. I have yet to see anyone who knows the word.
Not cool nyt
A colleague of mine who had a 105-day streak without a fail was working on it today and struggling. I don’t know whether he eventually got it or not.
I hope he did. It’s a very unfair word.
I can’t even remember the word. That’s how irrelevant it is to me. That and I’m just getting old lol.
Either can I but then I rarely can
My favorite memory of snow was April’s fools blizzard, just met my wife in January that year. Anticipating the storm I told her about it and I decided to stay the night with her. We went out at 2 AM to play bc I am crazy about snow. We ran into a heart surgeon who worked at Brigham and Woman’s hospital trying to pull out in his BMW and he got stuck. He said he had a surgical emergency he had it get to so we spent about an hour shoveling him out. To this day we both wonder what happened afterwards, I always like to think we helped him save someone life that night bc he probably did.
Great story! And I certainly hope the outcome was positive for the surgeon and patient!
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