Tuesday November 25 2025 Forecast (7:52AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

High pressure slid just to our south overnight, extending northward a bit, calming yesterday’s breeze, but during the night a shield of high to mid level cloudiness has overspread the sky and will continue to cover the sky today ahead of an approaching warm front. This front brings our region a period of rain tonight before passing through and putting us in the warm sector of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Wednesday when scattered rain showers can occur. One final band of rain showers crosses the region Wednesday evening with the low’s strong cold front. Behind this comes a dry, chilly, air mass for Thanksgiving Day with a gusty breeze, and a continuation of colder, blustery weather Friday and Saturday (though Friday will be the winder of those 2 days). It’ll continue mainly dry but I can’t rule out a few stray passing snow flurries from the Great Lakes (with the help of a cold pool aloft), especially on Friday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53 evening then rising to 53-60 overnight. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower likely during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55 by midday, then slowly falling. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A trough and frontal system approaches on the final day of November with clouds returning and eventually a precipitation chance -likely rain but can began as a mix some areas. Rain shower chance early December 1 and again later December 2 with frontal systems crossing the region. Wave of low pressure may bring a precipitation threat late period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

We’ll watch for some unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow chances) while our area is near the border of warmer air associated a ridge of high pressure off the US Southeast Coast and a larger reservoir of cold air across the north central US and much of Canada. Much of this period does look dry, however, with variable temperatures.

94 thoughts on “Tuesday November 25 2025 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    40 now, 32 overnight

    Ocean temp: 49

    Wordle: 6 Just barely caught the train. I’ve been left at the station far too often lately. 🙁

  7. If you see the photo of stacked lenticular clouds from Gorham NH today on social media, it’s real. That formation was visible on the satellite loop too just as the high clouds were moving in above it.

  8. Great job on all the 3s. I wasn’t even close on the 3rd guess.

    I have regressed significantly on this game. My mind must be elsewhere.

    1. I don’t trust any of them at this point. That being said, I am eying that Dec 3-4th time frame you outlined above.

      1. Yes.

        Seems like 3 possible outcomes, perhaps.

        1) The SE ridge is stronger and the system goes west of us and we briefly warm sector and have a strong cold frontal passage with showers and then much colder. (the models seem to be backing away from this scenario the last 24-36 hrs)

        2) The SE ridge really collapses, so much so, that some southern stream energy gets strung out south of us and its precip gets shunted south of us, as we are turning colder.

        3) the thread the needle, everything has to come together option of: enough of a SE ridge to send a wave of low pressure and its moisture into New England, while enough cold air is making its way into New England, at different levels of the atmosphere from north to south in New England. A LOT of things have to come together to make option 3 come together to work right.

        1. I seems to me that things have been trending in the direction of option #3. Of course, plenty of time for that
          to get blown out of the water. 🙂 🙂

  11. We have a very crowded engine today.

    Wordle 3 also. But absolute luck.

    https://ibb.co/HTNff2KF

    Well done to everyone. JPD, I suspect we all go thru spurts where focus is tough. I know I do. You’re going in the right direction and yo got it!!

  13. From my post above about 3 possible outcomes

    The 00z GDPS is kind of option 1

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025112500&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    I’d argue the 00z Euro is mostly option 2, yes, it does get some light precip into the northeast, but its simulated SE ridge is really collapsed and its a weak system mostly suppressed to the south and east

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112500&fh=192&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    3) I think the GFS 00z simulation is trying to thread the needle, though it really accomplishes that over NYC and the south coast

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025112500&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    LOL !!

  14. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KABR&hours=72

    Getting clobbered in Aberdeen, SD

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05OC40MTYsNDUuMjc2XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjguMTI2ODc1NzIxODAzODIsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0FCUiJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOnRydWUsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19#/

  15. Preceding the December 3-4th possible system is of course, tonight’s system and maybe more importantly, a system Sunday.

    How that Sunday system tracks and evolves may also have an effect on anything that may happen Dec 3rd-4th.

      1. Awesome Dr S. But Ruh roh. Mine was technically a 2.5. May I please I volunteer to be your assistant engineer. My dr yesterday specifically said “no shoveling coal” I’m sure I recall,those words

        🙂 🙂 😉

          1. Hahahahaha. He really is. It’s rare that a new dr walks in the room and I know I’ll really like him

  19. 12z GFS has changed its tune from its 00z run.

    12z GFS run is for a more suppressed SE ridge and a low headed south and east of us with some moisture making it into the northeast.

    We’ll see if this is an idea all the models settle on, or if its part of everything headed well south and east, so that there is cold arriving but with moisture passing well south and east of new england.

    2. The GFS has not been the first to pick things out lately. Actually not for a long time. 🙂

  20. That aberdeen, SD cam I posted above ….

    It is dark and pounding snow and they have a lot !!

    That upper low is tracking NW to SE under Aberdeen, which is keeping the heavy snow right over them.

  21. It’s important to note that for the last several weeks, on nearly any given operational run, the GFS has nearly twice as many weather systems as any other global model. This is a problem.

    One of the upgrades or tweaks has literally made this model unable to handle a pattern with multiple shortwaves, which is a very frequent pattern. This does not make for a good track record…

  22. 12Z Euro has spoken

    SUPPRESSED SOUTH

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112512&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112512&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    A touch of snow. 10:1

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112512&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Would be festive, IF it were ever to verify.

    2. Wow! Don’t know how that happened? Probably the same reason I suck at wordle! Sorry about that.

      I agree, just a period of interest to be monitored.

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Sunset today at 4:15pm. Ouch! This is the one aspect of winter (and late fall) I do not like.

  25. What’s interesting is that sunset in Nuuk, Greenland, is also at around 4:15pm. Sunrise there is at 10:15am.

  26. The 2 games tonight and 2 games tomorrow night at Fenway for HS football Thanksgiving has now become 1 game tonight and 3 games tomorrow afternoon / evening. They postponed tonight’s 2nd game but totally did not have to. It’ll be mainly dry for the time that was scheduled for. They actually have a better chance of getting wet tomorrow.

    My guess: premature decision triggered by the use of a weather app.

  27. Our isentropic rainfall event will be overspreading the region during the next few hours (already started well south and west of Boston). All reporting stations in CT now have rain. Westerly RI also has rain. All points N & E of there are currently just overcast – as of 6:30 p.m.

      1. Nice write-up!

        My main disagreement here is they may be leaning a little too heavily on the early PV disruption and the 1968-69 analog.

        1. I for one will be pulling the snowblower and shovels out of the shed this weekend as I am confident I will be using them in December.

          Winter forecast predictions so far for Boston:

          TK 45-55”
          JR 50-60”
          Eric 55-65”

          No one going low so far…

            1. It’s TK, Eric, and JR vs. the Gut….

              Do you know if Wankum puts out a winter forecast as well? No one here in CT does that I know of.

              1. Nevermind, forgot Cindy F and Mike W were on the same network and Philip reminded me below that WCVB put out an outlook already. No specific snow amount but they did say this:

                “If I had to describe this winter in one sentence, it would be: ‘Expect a lot of variability,'” Leonard said.

                In other words: Don’t get too comfortable.

                Even an average winter — around 48 inches of snow in Boston — will feel like a big one after several quiet seasons. With La Niña driving frequent storm chances and several atmospheric patterns capable of sending cold air our way, the ingredients are there for a more active stretch.

                Whether that translates to a truly snowy winter will come down to timing — and as every New Englander knows, winter rarely plays by the rules.

              2. He does not . Basically nobody knows what’s going to happen . It’s basically this scenario or that or that!

                1. I would enjoy a couple of big ones Sunday into late Monday type event with snow for everyone. I’ll bang out sick & enjoy it .

                2. I would stop short of saying “nobody knows what’s going to happen”. There are plenty of reliable clues for the big picture. It’s important to know the difference between pattern recognition and deterministic details. This is why I have no problem whatsoever if someone doesn’t forecast a specific snowfall amount for a long range forecast.

          2. I still say that Cindy (Ch. 5) dropped the ball on their Outlook. Harvey would have put numbers for the viewers.

            1. Harvey did a couple outlooks before he retired in which no specific forecast # or range was given.

              Judah would hint at one (based on average) and sometimes would give a round guess. But Judah was a guest, and not employed by the station.

        2. The stat in that article I found fascinating was that the 2008-2018 stretch was the snowiest 10 year stretch on record for Boston and the 2015-2025 stretch was the least snowiest. Things definitely do even out over time to give us that 48-49” average which has been fairly consistent over the past 100+ years.

          1. This is a prime example of the variety we can see over a relatively short period of time.

          2. That the issue. When. It comes to climat change regimes you have these natural up and down but your going to see these massive swings

  29. NOAA & NASA report that the Antarctic ozone hole is shrinking more quickly than expected. Good news there!

  30. Due to steps the global community has been taking. It’s really positive news.

    Yes, it is good news, as the Antarctic ozone hole is indeed shrinking more quickly than predicted, a positive trend driven by the success of the Montreal Protocol and the reduction of ozone-depleting substances like CFCs. In 2025, the ozone hole was the fifth smallest on record, ranking as the fifth smallest since 1992, and scientists from NOAA and NASA confirm the recovery is on track, with full recovery projected for mid-century.
    Shrinking trend: The ozone hole’s consistent reduction is a testament to the global effort to ban ozone-depleting chemicals, a success story in international cooperation.
    Projected recovery: If current trends continue, the ozone layer is expected to fully recover by around 2066.
    Scientific confirmation: Recent studies, including one from MIT, have confirmed with high confidence that the healing is directly caused by the reduced use of ozone-depleting substances, not just natural variability.
    Impact: The recovery of the ozone layer is crucial because it shields the planet from harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays, and its healing is a powerful example of how collective global action can address environmental crises.

    1. Pretty amazing the resiliency of the ozone layer, especially with all the pollution that China and many third world countries continue to put in the atmosphere.

      1. Kind of sort of. We don’t get great awards either.

        the United States ranks second in annual total \(CO_{2}\) emissions, behind China. However, the U.S. is the largest country for historical cumulative emissions, and its emissions per capita are higher than most other countries. Annual emissions: The United States is the second-largest emitter of annual carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions globally, with China being the largest.

      2. The usa is ranked 3rd inpollution and china leads in green energy 2 fold. If big oil and gas gtho of the way the usa would ne way further. Also in developing countries they get incentives by big oil gas and even coal in trades and other ways. Very complicated geopolitics involved. Mand developing countries give off no where near as much as the i95 states

          1. Yet does way more in terms of using green tech than the USA. Regardless lets have the USA be a leader instead and improve our infrastructure its not that dam hard. We have the tech, we just need the big oil and the politicians to put out

  33. 0z GFS delivers another coastal storm 12/7 and the Euro blows up a massive ocean storm just barely off shore around the same time. A few smaller clipper type systems mixed in for good measure as well.

    Interesting times ahead…………..

      1. Interesting, but it hasn’t happened yet. Thank you for the links. Something to monitor, that’s for sure.

    1. I got very lucky with my 2nd guess …. gave me 2 letters in the correct spot and 1 other letter

      My 3rd guess happened to work. 🙂

  35. I am hoping we will see subsequent 00z and 12z runs that have consistency and repeat the general idea of the 00z Euro and GFS.

    Its been too long for those who like a good amount of snow.

    And, in eastern Marshfield, any decent low with decent wind off of the ocean will probably save a snow day.

    It would be nice however if the Euro AI joined in 🙂

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