DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

Low pressure passing north of our area today will drag a cold front through the region by later in the day. The air will be relatively mild ahead of this front, probably the last 40+ degree day for much of the region for a while. Although Boston broke their second longest stretch on record of days with above normal temperatures yesterday with a below normal day, there will be one more above normal day today before we head into a stretch of below normal for the remainder of this five-day forecast period (and probably beyond). This is a result of a continued blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere which has now adjusted itself to grab a piece of the arctic air that has been residing on the other side of the hemisphere and deliver it to the northeastern US. Granted, we won’t see anything like the cold that has been experienced in parts of Europe & Asia, but in a relative sense, it will feel quite cold compared to what we have experienced this winter so far. As that cold air arrives, the frontal boundary leading it in will produce a few showers and with marginal temperatures and a little bit of convective action in the atmosphere, these may fall as rain, snow, or even graupel depending on their location. This type of set-up often makes for picturesque skies as well, so a little show is to be put on by the atmosphere to mark the change, and then it’s onto a cold & dry weekend with air coming from Canada on a gusty northwest to north wind. While we’ll have plenty of sunshine both Saturday & Sunday, for the first time in quite a while it may fail to reach freezing throughout most of the region with a few possible exceptions on Sunday. The cold remains in place early next week. That much is certain. What there is continued uncertainty about is a snow threat. Low pressure will be passing south of New England between late Monday and Tuesday, and we continue to see some differences across the various computer guidance we look at, some of them bringing a light to even moderate snowfall into at least southern areas, while others indicate a complete miss. At this point, I continue to lean toward the miss scenario, but with the door open for at least some light snow to reach southern areas, especially the South Coast. But at day 5, that leaves plenty of time to figure this part of the forecast out.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain, snow, and/or graupel possible mainly mid to late afternoon and favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow showers possible in the evening. Clear overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 24-31. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible near the South Coast. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with some South Coast light snow possible morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

As we move through the final 5 days of January we should see the blocking pattern continue and the storm track suppressed to the south with another system likely moving out south of the region around the middle of the period, but it may become quite a large ocean storm and bend the air flow around enough that some ocean effect snow showers may reach some coastal areas somewhere in the January 29-31 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Still uncertainty regarding the blocking pattern’s status. With low confidence I believe it holds but weakens during the first several days of February. As far as sensible weather for us, probably still on the drier side overall but any shift in the blocking pattern’s strength or position could open the door for some unsettled weather, which we’ll have to monitor.

C-19 Chat Post – January 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A broad area of low pressure will track north of New England through Friday, dragging its warm front through the region today, which may result in a touch of light snow from northern MA northward, and its cold front across the region on Friday, which will be a milder day and see a passing rain or snow shower. Most of the region will be dry though on both days. This weekend, a piece of modified arctic air slips out of Canada into the Northeast as high pressure sets up shop north of the Great Lakes, so we will be cold and dry here. This cold/dry air will hold into Monday as we start to watch a storm approaching the East Coast from the Midwest. Normally this would be rather concerning in winter, but it is not nearly so this time around. More about that after the detailed forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with a period or 2 of very light snow possible in southern NH and northern MA. Partly sunny later. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW by late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

While we need to continue to monitor a passing storm system south of New England January 26 to early January 27, and there is still uncertainty regarding how far north the track will be, there will also potentially be an elongated trough behind it to watch as well. But right now the leaning is that we’ll continue to have the atmospheric block set up in such a way that low pressure over the Maritime Provinces of Canada will help keep this storm from becoming too strong and from coming too far north, so odds favor a miss or just a glancing blow favoring southern parts of the region. Dry/cold weather follows this for January 28-29. May need to watch for another approaching low pressure system by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Potential impact by low pressure both at the start and end of this period. The odds however continue to be on the side of mostly quiet weather. There’s still a lot of uncertainty at this point on the duration and strength of the blocking pattern this far out – does it hold, weaken, or break down? – a question that cannot be answered yet.

C-19 Chat Post – January 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A disturbance moves through the region today with lots of clouds and some snow showers as the air continues to trend colder. The best chance of snow showers will be south and west of Boston where a small accumulation may occur. This energy will ignite an ocean storm south and east of New England which will pull even colder air in tonight. A broad low pressure area will track north of the region Thursday and Friday pushing a warm front through the region Thursday followed by a cold front on Friday. A tiny bit of light snow may occur with the warn front but most of the energy and moisture for that will pass to our north, and then the cold front may be good for a rain or snow shower Friday as it turns briefly milder between the two fronts. Once the cold front is through, it’s dry and windy for the coming weekend along with the coldest air we’ve had for quite some time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston where a coating to 1/2 inch may accumulate. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with brief very light snow possible northern MA and southern NH. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

While there is some uncertainty remaining regarding the passage of a storm system in the late January 25 to early January 27 time frame, odds favor this system passing far enough south for little or even no impact, with generally cold and dry weather being dominant throughout this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The pattern seems stubborn to watch to change much, and while there is another “window-of-opportunity” around January 30-31 where we need to watch for a possible storm system, again odds favor more dry weather to dominate as we go from January to early February, perhaps with a temperature moderation getting underway.

C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

The next 3 days will show a cooling trend as a couple disturbances in a west northwesterly air flow bring only minor snow shower threats but serve to bring in colder air from Canada. We may moderate slightly on Friday ahead of a cold front which will arrive by evening and introduce even colder air by the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers, especially west of Boston. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Dry/cold January 24 as high pressure builds just north of the region. Watching for a storm threat in the later January 25 to early January 27 time-frame as low pressure likely passes to the south of our area, but uncertain on how close it will be. Dry/cold for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Still a lot of uncertainty in the overall pattern though still leaning toward a weakened blocking pattern but weather that is mostly on the dry side with a cold start and then a possible moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – January 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

Today will be the mildest day of the week before we start a colder trend. Don’t look for an arctic blast though. This will be a gradual process as the large scale features shift to a allow a little more cold into the Northeast than we have seen for the entire month so far. The weather pattern will still be active, but quiet. How is that possible? Active but quiet? Yes. About 3 disturbances will pass by, one today, one later Tuesday to early Wednesday, and another Thursday, but none of them will result in any meaningful precipitation. That is how we can be active but quiet. 🙂

TODAY (MLK JR. DAY): More sun than clouds morning. More clouds than sun with a risk of a passing light rain or snow shower during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Blocking continues. Colder, dry weather is expected for the January 23-24 weekend. There is a storm threat in the January 25-27 window but it is too soon to know any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Blocking may weaken or break down. Will have to watch for additional storm threat, but odds favor cold/dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Many times we talk about a “break in the action” in reference to a short quiet period of weather in the middle of an active stormy pattern, but this time we had the opposite, a short-lived stormy period, i.e., one important storm system moving through yesterday, and now it’s back to a quiet pattern in which only minor disturbances cause minimal precipitation chances but otherwise it remains generally dry. The blocking pattern we’ve been in now for about a week will remain in place. The difference this time is it adjusts itself enough to allow a trend to colder weather here – not the brutal cold that much of Asia & Europe have seen in recent days, but a trend to a near to below normal temperature pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Blocking continues. A weak system may produce a few snow showers early in the period. We will watch for a storm system to survive a little better as it approaches later in the period, but it’s far too soon to have any certainty on this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Jury’s out on blocking. We may see it weaken or even break down, although odds still favor seasonably cold to slightly colder than normal and on the drier side. It’s a very low confidence outlook and will continue to monitor the pattern drivers.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

In comparison to our weather over the last few weeks, this is a pretty wild day, starting out with moderate to heavy rainfall and some decent wind. The passing potent low pressure area causing this is the exception to the rule of what will continue to be a fairly benign pattern going forward. Upon the passage of this low, which will cut northeastward across New England today, will arrive drier air once again that will be with us into the middle of the coming week. So, as of the writing of this blog update, a few more hours of rain at most, ending from southwest to northeast by the early afternoon. An additional passing rain shower is possible during the afternoon, and an even lesser risk that a stray snow shower makes it into the WHW forecast area tonight as colder air arrives in the wake of the departing low pressure area. A few rain/snow showers may cross the region on Monday (MLK Jr. Day) as some of the lingering energy from the original low pressure area crosses the Northeast. The next energy looks like it is going to be kept from organizing and also held mostly to the south as our blocking pattern goes on, so heading into the middle of next week the most we’d see is some clouds and a few snow showers as it will be colder at that time.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunder. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind ESE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to S 5-15 MPH midday then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Blocking continues. Minor, weak systems may produce a few snow showers at times as the overall temperatures will average near to below normal. It doesn’t look like any organized storm systems will impact the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Blocking may weaken. This change may allow for a better chance of being impacted by a more organized low pressure area sometime during this period, but that is far from certain. The odds still favor a drier pattern overall.

C-19 Chat Post – January 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Very little wind allowed low level moisture to hang around overnight with lots of clouds, but the temperature slipping below freezing in many locations has resulted in some black ice formation where surfaces did not dry off from yesterday’s precipitation, so be aware of that if venturing outside this morning! As the morning goes on we will see the temperature rise sufficiently to eliminate this problem, and enough dry air work in from a small high pressure area to the north of us to bring some sun today. A broad area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send an occluding frontal system our way on which a new low will form and move over the region Saturday morning and midday. This will result in a solid area of rainfall, not that wide, but moderate to heavy, moving across the region from the pre-dawn hours to the midday hours of Saturday, before a dry slot moves in during the afternoon to put an end to the wet weather. A period of moderate and gusty southeasterly winds will take place with the rainfall, so driving will be a little bit of a challenge Saturday morning before conditions improve. A drier, colder westerly wind will evolve after the low’s passage, and snow showers will be occurring in the mountains to our west with only the slight chance that a few of them survive in snow flurry form into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Expect a dry and chilly day Sunday with a gusty westerly breeze, and similar conditions for Monday, Dr. MLK Jr. Day, with the addition of a snow or rain shower risk a low pressure trough moves across the region. Another small area of high pressure should provide fair and chilly weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun and cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives west to east toward dawn. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH evening, increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas overnight.

SATURDAY: Overcast into midday with rain, possibly heavy at times. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SSE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to SW 5-15 MPH midday then W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

What we know: Blocking pattern continues. What we don’t know for sure: Day-to-day details. Best guess on sensible weather: Best storm chance January 22-23, but may be a smaller system if one forms ahead of it offshore on January 20, which is quite possible. This could result in the second system being weaker and further south. Still much to iron out.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Biggest question here: Status of blocking pattern – does it stay in place, weaken, or break down? Still working on that. Because of this uncertainty and normal uncertainty at medium range, can’t get detailed, but can say that expected indices are more indicative of near to below normal temperatures and leaning slightly drier versus stormy at this time.