7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
High pressure slips away today. The 3rd in a series of major storms impacts the region Tuesday as low pressure evolving today over the Mid Atlantic moves off the coast and turns northeastward, passing southeast of New England, interacting with an upper low approaching from the west out of the Great Lakes. The interaction of these and track of the main storm will determine exact snowfall amounts, especially where the heaviest bands set up. For now, going for these to be from the NH Seacoast through Cape Ann MA and over southeastern MA. Still some wiggle-room left so check updates in comments below. A new blog post will appear tonight if necessary. Quieter weather behind the departing storm as it now appears any additional unsettled weather will be forced to the south of the region later in the week after just upper level low pressure and the offshore storm combine for a few snow showers at midweek.
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving south to north from about 10PM on, may start as mix/rain parts of Cape Cod. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern areas. Blowing snow at times. Temperatures generally steady 25-32. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest coastal areas.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow ending. Total accumulation a widespread 8-16 inches, but 16-22 inches possible NH Seacoast, Cape Ann MA, southeastern MA except lesser amounts outer Cape Cod and Islands. Blowing snow at times. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17-18. Risk of unsettled weather March 19 to early March 20, then dry again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Risk of rain about the middle of the period otherwise dry to start and end the period with temperatures closer to normal.

10:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Today provides a break in the harsh weather that has been March so far, as high pressure dominates, but don’t get used to it. Here comes another storm threat. As described yesterday, this next threat will be comprised of a complex set-up with a developing coastal / ocean storm in the subtropical jet stream off the Mid Atlantic, and a strong disturbances coming eastward from the Great Lakes associated with the polar jet stream, and a trough of low pressure connecting the two, as if they are extending their arms to start an atmospheric dance. Although they will not be fully joined until beyond the region, the intensification of the southern stream system system and its northward turn, as well as the development of moisture between the two system, will likely be enough to bring a significant snowfall on Tuesday. Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure will bring blustery, chilly March weather with a snow shower threat midweek.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late. Lows 24-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast with snow, but possibly mix/rain for a time immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Early call accumulations a widespread 4 to 8 inches except under 4 inches immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Highs 31-39. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
A more progressive pattern evolves during this period with the threat of light precipitation as warm air tries to move back in March 16, but probably fails as low pressure passes over or south of the region with a rain/mix/snow threat to start March 17 then windy/colder later that day and March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19 for the final day of winter, with clearing to follow, if current timing holds, for the Vernal Equinox on March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
Quick warm-up early in the period, then another storm threat followed by a shot of cooler air late in the period.

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure offshore and high pressure trying to build in from the west results in a dry day but with a chilly wind and some clouds and even a few snow showers today. more sunshine and less wind Sunday with high pressure more in control. We’ve been watching the storm threat for early next week for quite some time and the current thought process is that the main storm will pass well offshore to the southeast late Monday night and Tuesday while a northern jet stream system and a connection between that and the offshore storm will be enough to produce some snow here, though not a big storm. Will detail the snow chances and eventually amounts as it gets closer. A combined larger storm offshore by Wednesday means a chilly northerly flow and upper level energy will still trigger the chance of snow showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing snow showers possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure hangs on with additional wind, cold, and snow showers March 15. Pattern starts to progress with the next system bringing clouds and a threat of light precipitation March 16 and a shot of mix/snow for part of March 17, depending on its track, before wind/cold arrives March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
Progressive pattern but still active with another storm threat by late in the period.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
An upper level low pressure area will cross the region this afternoon and evening, triggering some snow showers and possible snow squalls. Anybody that experiences a snow squall can see visibility drop very low in brief heavy snow and gusty wind, but it will not last long. High pressure builds in for a decent weekend, though it will still be breezy and chilly between the advancing high and low pressure offshore especially early in the weekend. Watching the next storm system that will pass south of the region later Monday and early Tuesday, but perhaps close enough for a period of snow/mix. Upper level low pressure lingering over the region Tuesday will at least produce snow showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Isolated heavier snow squalls possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers/squalls early. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
Another upper level low pressure system crosses the region March 14-15 with a snow shower risk, and will watch for the spawning of a stronger offshore storm system. A faster-moving weather pattern evolves and advancing milder air may bring a risk of light precipitation by March 16, high pressure brings fair weather March 17, and a low pressure wave and cold front brings a risk of rain showers by March 18. Timing a little uncertain with this being beyond 5 days away.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
A more progressive pattern means up/down temperatures and passing weaker weather systems.

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
5 years ago on March 8, we were dealing with the lingering end of a very big snowstorm in the region. Though this storm’s snowfall was not as big in much of the region, it was still quite significant and will be a little slow to end in portions of the region during today as low pressure pulls away toward the Canadian Maritimes. In the comments later I will talk about snowfall amounts and how the forecast worked out. But moving on, forecast-wise now, we’ll be watching upper level low pressure coming through the region with additional rain/snow showers Friday and part of Saturday, and then will eye another low pressure system by late Sunday and especially Monday. The track of that storm is uncertain but the leaning is that it will be a little further south than the last couple with more of a grazing than direct hit. But this is not a high confidence forecast.
TODAY: Cloudy. Lingering snow with up to 1 inch of additional accumulation through the morning mainly east central and northeastern MA to southeastern NH. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
Additional snow showers as upper level low pressure crosses the region March 13, followed by another threat of some precipitation by March 15 with yet another upper level system, and then a third system brings a better chance of rain showers March 17 as it should be milder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)
Drier and briefly colder, then a moderating trend but another round of unsettled weather possible by the end of the period.

3:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Some preliminary moisture ahead of the winter storm will bring areas of light snow and some coastal rain during this morning and the first half of the afternoon, with some of this caused by ocean moisture and some of it caused by an area moving in from the west ahead of the main storm. The window of time for the main storm impact, taking place while low pressure strengthens and wobbles north and east off the New England South Coast, will be from mid to late afternoon through about midnight or shortly thereafter. During this time, the heaviest precipitation will occur, with the all-important rain/snow line being a huge determining factor in snow amounts in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor. So even the snowfall call on this blog, the day of the storm, has some uncertainty and will display a large gradient near this rain/snow line. With more confidence I can say that little snowfall will occur further to the southeast and the heaviest amounts will be west of the I-95 belt. During the peak hours of the storm the wind gusts from the northeast may reach 40-60 MPH along the coast, and though the tides are not astronomically nearly as high as during last week’s major storm, there can still be moderate flooding in some locations. Wind damage is also possible, especially with some weakened structures and trees from the major storm. In addition, inland heavy/wet snow will increase the potential for tree damage and power outages there. Thunder may even occur in areas of heaviest precipitation. During the early hours of Thursday, there will be a taper-down of precipitation from south to north, but some back-lash light snow will occur into Thursday morning behind the departing system. An upper level low pressure area may bring a few snow showers to the region Friday which may linger into Saturday as the upper low is slow to move away on Saturday. By Sunday, weak high pressure means a quieter weather day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast, becoming steadier and heavier by mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast. Highs 35-43. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow and rain, heavy at times, with a rain/snow line in the vicinity of a line from near Gloucester MA to near Boston MA to near Providence RI which will oscillate in the vicinity of the I-95 belt. Chance of thunder. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in the vicinity of the rain/snow line, dropping off rapidly from under 3 inches to little or nothing east of the rain/snow line, 6-12 inches west of the rain/snow line but areas of 12-18 inches favoring higher elevations west of I-495 and north of I-90. Lows 27-32 west of the rain/snow line, 33-38 east of the rain/snow line. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, possibly to or exceeding 50 MPH coast, east of the rain/snow line, NE to N 10-25 mph with higher gusts west of the rain/snow line.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering light snow except mix/rain southeastern MA mainly Cape Cod and Islands, during the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Continuing to watch the March 12-13 for a potential storm, which has some chance of just skirting the southern areas or passing out to sea, however an upper level disturbance may still produce some snow/mix/rain March 13. An additional upper level system may trigger rain/snow showers later March 14 and March 15 before improving conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
The transition to a more zonal weather pattern during this period with passing weaker low pressure systems and more variable temperatures.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
A sliver of high pressure brings a decent day today and then a winter storm approaches rapidly Wednesday, impacting the region significantly by late-day and nighttime, diminishing in impact as it moves away Thursday morning. A shot of strong wind and heavy precipitation will occur, with a rain/snow line somewhere in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor or just east of it. This will result in a very sharp snowfall gradient making my snowfall forecast highly vulnerable in this area. Thunder may occur during the passage of the low pressure area, which is likely to track over or just east of Nantucket by early Thursday morning. A follow up upper level trough may bring some snow showers on Friday as it will be quite cold aloft. All of this should be offshore but still close enough for a few rain/snow showers and a gusty breeze Saturday.
TODAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast, becoming steadier and heavier by mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast. Highs 35-43. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow and rain, heavy at times, with a rain/snow line in the vicinity of a line from near Gloucester MA to near Boston MA to near Providence RI which will oscillate. Chance of thunder. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in the vicinity of the rain/snow line, dropping off rapidly from under 3 inches to little or nothing east of the rain/snow line, 6-12 inches west of the rain/snow line but areas of 12-18 inches favoring higher elevations west of I-495 and north of I-90. Lows 27-32 west of the rain/snow line, 33-38 east of the rain/snow line. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, possibly to or exceeding 50 MPH coast, east of the rain/snow line, NE to N 10-25 mph with higher gusts west of the rain/snow line.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering light snow except mix/rain southeastern MA mainly Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Windy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to upper 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Watching from late March 11 into March 13 for a potential storm of rain/mix/snow, but there is some chance this one may skirt the region or miss to the south. Another disturbance brings a risk of precipitation later March 14 or March 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
A couple weaker weather systems and an overall milder trend but some up/down temperatures as the ongoing blocking pattern weakens and tries to shift to a more progressive one.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)
The active weather pattern goes on with one disturbance that dropped a little snow overnight departing now, a break but a gusty breeze today and a more tranquil Tuesday but clouds moving back in ahead of the next storm system which will impact the region Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a rain/snow line with it but it is expected to bring a significant snowfall to a good portion of the region. Early call is that a low pressure are will track northeastward and pass over or just southeast of Cape Cod. An upper level disturbance following this will prolong unsettled weather in the form of a few rain/snow showers on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering light snow showers possible through mid morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 38-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light N to E.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow and rain arriving, with rain most likely Cape Cod and Islands, snow along and west of Boston-Providence corridor, and mix in between. Significant snowfall accumulation expected where it is mostly snow and all snow through the nighttime and overnight, with early call of 6+ inches in all snow areas, 3-6 inches in mix but mainly snow areas, and under 3 inches in mix but mainly rain areas. Highs 32-45, mildest Cape Cod. Wind E to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/rain ends early. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Windy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)
Blocking pattern remains in place. Fair and milder weather but a breezy start to the March 10-11 weekend. Storm threat looms for March 12-13, though too early for details. Improving weather March 14.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
Blocking pattern weakens. One or two systems may impact the region but the overall trend looks like weaker systems and moderating temperatures overall.

12:41PM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
A blocking pattern will be in control of the weather the next several days (and beyond) with a stormy pattern continuing. An upper level disturbance will move north to south out of Canada on its way to being absorbed by the large offshore storm which is still producing rough surf and large ocean swells along the coast. This will result in a minor accumulating snow event tonight. Dry weather returns during Monday and continues through Tuesday but the next storm system arrives via the Midwest by the middle of the week and will bring an assortment of precipitation, the specific type(s) and amount for each location remains to be determined. Snow will be more involved than in the last event, however. This upcoming midweek event will not result in coastal flooding issue or wind issues anything like what was just experienced. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. An isolated rain or snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers evening. A period of snow moving northeast to southwest across the region overnight with accumulations of a coating to 1 inch likely, and locally up to 2 inches possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Lows 31-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering light snow showers possible through mid morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs 38-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: A storm of snow/mix/rain is likely. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Lingering snow/rain showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
Blocking pattern remains in place. A disturbance following the midweek storm may prolong a snow shower threat through March 9. Next storm threat looms in the March 12-13 window.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
Blocking pattern remains in place. One or two system may impact the region but the overall trend looks like they will be weaker.

11:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
We’re all well aware of the major impacts of the storm that is not quite done with the region. As of the writing of this update, the 3rd of 3 high tide cycles expected to cause moderate to major coastal flooding is about to take place. The region remains in the envelope of moderate to strong, gusty winds, especially coastal and southeastern areas, and this will gradually loosen its grip on the region during this weekend, which will be blustery and chilly. A few rain and snow showers will occur today around the outer periphery of the very large storm circulation. An upper level disturbance will arrive and begin to merge with the larger storm offshore later Sunday, and this may bring some accumulating snow showers to portions of the region, though no major accumulation. We get a break between storm systems Monday and Tuesday, but as advertised, the next one arrives with a rain/snow/wind threat Wednesday as the stormy blocking pattern continues. Folks have been sharing reports, photos, NWS stats, etc, and I’m sure will continue to do that in the comments section, so I will not bother posting any of that here, just moving on to the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 37-44. Wind N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest along the coast. Additional moderate to major coastal flooding around the midday high tide.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Minor to moderate coastal flooding around the late night high tide.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: A storm of snow/rain/wind expected. Temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Blocking pattern continues… Storm in the area with snow/rain/wind potential March 8, then lingering wind and possible snow showers March 9. A break with fair weather March 10-11. Next storm threat arrives March 12 with a chance of rain/mix/snow but obviously far too early for any solid certainty.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Storm threat early in the period then a minor system may come through later in the period, however the overall large scale blocking pattern should remain in place at least into if not through this period.

6:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
The storm is here. Much of what was in yesterday’s discussion holds true, and now to try to focus a few things. Slightly faster timeline, wind already increasing pre-dawn and will build to its peak through morning and midday then peak this afternoon through late this evening. Moderate to major coastal flooding starts as the midday high tide cycle approaches, eases only slightly between cycles only to peak again around high tide cycles around midnight tonight and again midday Saturday. The wind fetch will hold some of the water in near the coast keeping the flooding going even during lower tide times. East-facing and north-facing shores are the most vulnerable to major flooding. However depending on the orientation of the lowlands in any particular region, some locations will see standing water flooding from the magnitude of the tide height and the difficulty in draining it out between tides. Other aspects: Wind damage due to powerful gusts. Power outages both due to wind gusts, especially coastal areas, and in over inland higher elevations where any heavy/wet snow accumulates later in the storm. Regarding the snow, always been the wild card and my latest thinking is a slightly faster timing may prevent some of the change-over and accumulation especially regarding southwestern NH and the northern Worcester Hills. Still have some concerns about heavy/wet snow accumulating up to several inches in higher elevations of the southern Worcester Hills to northern RI. I’m not overly concerned at the moment with much in the way of snow elsewhere, but will monitor as timing of the cooling atmosphere and precipitation intensity will determine that snow part of the system. Some locations in the hills of Worcester County actually started as snow in the pre-dawn hours, but it has since warmed enough for rain and the bulk of the precipitation will be rain today, which will lead to areas of street flooding. Beyond the storm’s direct impact, still expecting the blustery conditions to continue right through the weekend, even into Monday, before easing. By Tuesday, we’ll be eyeing the approach of a new storm system, but we’ll talk more about that on the next blog update. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Probable change to snow mid to late afternoon higher elevations southwestern NH and central MA with possible mix nearby to these areas. Moderate to major coastal flooding especially midday on. Areas of street flooding. Areas of wind damage. Temperatures 38-45 through midday falling slowly this afternoon to 34-42 especially interior areas. Wind NE increasing to 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain except higher elevation snow southwestern NH through central MA into northern RI with a mix and/or snow change possible for some of the lower elevations prior to a tapering of precipitation from north to south. Potential snow accumulation of 1-3 inches favoring higher elevations with under 1 inch to nothing elsewhere, but a 3-6 maximum accumulation may occur in some of the highest elevations. Still some uncertainty on these amounts with many locations possibly seeing nothing at all in terms of snow. Temperatures steady 33-41. Wind NE to N 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end, diminishing slightly overnight. Moderate to major coastal flooding and additional wind damage.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 30-37. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a snow shower early. Better chance of snow showers at night. Highs 38-45. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Large scale blocking pattern remains in place and for us here in southeastern New England the next storm threat exists March 7-8 with rain/mix/snow possible. Improving weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Another storm threat early in this period as the overall pattern remains the same, then improving weather would again follow this.

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
A cold front passed through the region overnight with a few light rain showers. This was not a sharp boundary with lots of cold air behind it so today will still be a mild day as clouds increase ahead of the developing major storm system set to impact the region from later tonight through Friday, with lingering effects into the weekend. There has been uncertainty in the details of the storm track, as in how close it will be to the New England South Coast as it does a loop then heads off to the southeast in response to a rapidly developing blocking high pressure area over Greenland to eastern Canada. The large scale has been a fairly easy forecast but its the minute details that result in forecast difficulties. What I do know is that the just-beyond-full-moon high tide cycles midday Friday, late Friday night, and midday Saturday are going to result in moderate to major flooding on east-facing and north-facing coasts, and minor to moderate flooding elsewhere. Property damage is likely as a result of the moderate to major flooding. Strong east to northeast winds are also a certainty, of course strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations as is typical. This may result in damage as well. A large percentage of the storm’s precipitation will likely be in the form of rain due to a marginal atmosphere I expect to be just warm enough to keep it mainly rain. Some flooding will result as a few bands of heavy rain may move over the same areas for several hours. The wildcard is snowfall. With the atmosphere marginal, the combination of colder air aloft and heavy precipitation can change rain to wet snow, and this can occur in a patchy fashion and not a more uniform rain/snow line. This is a very difficult aspect of the storm to forecast as just differences of a couple degrees can mean the difference between no snow, a few inches of snow, and a much larger snowfall accumulation. Going to play the lower side on the snow for now, keeping in mind that this can change very rapidly and updates will come if necessary. The forecast will reflect a mix/change from late Friday afternoon into Friday night before the storm pulls its heaviest precipitation southward and out of the region. The odds favor accumulation in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, and also possibly over higher elevations of northern RI and nearby MA. Will keep the forecast numbers conservative for these areas at this point and allow for a minor accumulation at the end of the storm elsewhere. By the weekend and Monday, this storm will have evolved into a very large circulation as it heads southeastward toward Bermuda, and southeastern New England will remain under the influence of it with some lingering coastal flooding, gusty wind, and a few rain/snow showers, especially Saturday, diminishing thereafter. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH late in the day. Temperatures steady 38-45 much of day then falling slowly late. Wind E 15-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH interior, 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod. Coastal flooding especially near high tide times. Road flooding possible due to heavy rain. Probable wind damage and scattered power outages.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix/snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH, rain may end as mix/snow elsewhere. Early-call accumulation 1-4 inches higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH and possibly northern RI and nearby MA, less than 1 inch elsewhere. Precipitation tapering off north to south. Lows 32-39. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Moderate to major coastal flooding around high tide times.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Coastal flooding around high tide times, especially north-facing shores.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Blocking pattern continues. Next storm threat favoring late March 6 to early March 9 and may include some snow/mix.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Blocking pattern continues. One more storm threat possible favoring the middle of this period.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
High pressure slips off to the east of New England today and a cold front approaches from the north. It will still be quite a nice day to end the month of February. Then it’s time for the proverbial March Lion as we continue to watch the evolution of a blocking pattern and a major storm system. The adjustment today is for a slightly more northward journey of the developing low pressure system which will intensify fairly rapidly and do a loop just south of New England. The main concern continues to be a strong onshore wind flow and coastal flooding. Will get far more detailed on tomorrow’s blog than today, still keeping it on a broadly described scale for this update. The time frame is generally the same although a further south evolution of the storm would have meant a quicker exit of the precipitation portion, so delaying that a bit with a farther north position likely being realized. Still not overly worried about snow as it will be a fairly mild atmosphere, but leaving the opportunity for some mix/change to snow over interior higher elevations before the system pulls out as it will be pulling colder air into itself. I don’t think we’ll see quite the right set-up for a dynamic cooling event to create snow over much of the region. This may be confined to the hills/mountains of western and southwestern New England, outside of my general WHW forecast area. Still looking for a windy/chilly weekend which may start with rain/mix/snow if the low’s loop is broad enough, otherwise it turns out mostly dry during the weekend.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 43-50 then slightly. Wind light W shifting to N, then NE to E at night increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Stormy with rain, probably heavy at times. Rain may mix with or turn to snow interior higher elevations at night. Strong east wind and coastal flooding likely. Temperatures steady 38-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy wit a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then variably cloudy with a passing rain/snow shower possible. Temperatures generally steady upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Dry March 5 and still breezy/cool. The next window of opportunity for storminess is from later March 6 to early March 9. This system may have more cold air to work with therefore presents a better chance of mix/snow over a larger portion of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
The same pattern remains in place. Yet another storm threat favoring the middle of the period.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Some very nice late February weather today into Wednesday as high pressure dominates today then retreats to the east Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the north. Continuing to watch the coming evolution of a blocking pattern and the first storm threat during this pattern. As is typically the case, there remains some varied solutions on the different computer guidance, but the overall idea remains the same for now. The greatest early concern is the coastal flooding threat due to a long fetch of onshore wind. Looking for largely a rain event arriving late Thursday or Thursday night that may end as snow for at least parts of the region Friday before the storm’s precipitation gets pushed to the south. The precipitation type will depend on the exact temperature profile in the atmosphere which will be marginal, as well as the intensity of the precipitation. If the storm is too far to the south you lack heavier precipitation and colder air aloft to be dragged toward the surface. So it will be a fine line. Looking for the system to be far enough south by Saturday that we are largely dry here with just continued gusty wind and a possible rain/snow shower.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 40-47. Wind NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds northern and western areas. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain/snow shower. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Breezy but mainly dry weather with low pressure far offshore and high pressure to the north March 4-5. Next low pressure system approaches March 6 and evolves into a rain and/or snow producer March 7-8. This system may have colder air to work with so something to watch closely.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)
The same pattern remains in place. Storm system departs to start the period then another one threatens later in the period, favoring March 12-13.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Drying trend today as high pressure approaches from the west so a fairly cloudy and foggy start for many will end up much brighter. High pressure moves by the region Tuesday with fair weather, continuing through Wednesday as high pressure slips off to the east. The much-talked-about storm system approaches from the west and impacts the region late Thursday into Friday as blocking high pressure develops to the north. Still leaning toward a slightly further south track to the low center but it will be a broad system so still expecting its rain shield to get in, and may end as mix/snow for parts of the region during Friday due to marginally cold air. The biggest concern will still likely be coastal flooding due to a moderate to strong onshore flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Fog and clouds to start, then dissipating fog and increasing sun. Highs 48-55. Wind NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to Sw.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-52 South Coast, 53-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day or night. Increasing wind. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. The first system should sink far to the south leaving a gusty northeast to north wind and only a few rain/snow showers on the March 3-4 weekend with more tranquil weather by March 5. The next storm system threatens the region March 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)
The same pattern remains in place with a storm system nearby to start the period, a break, then another storm system possibly to watch later in the period.