10:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
And on we go. The 2 waves of low pressure are now by, with Friday’s relatively mini snow event certainly overtaken by Saturday’s more impressive one, especially if you are located south and southeast of Boston in southeastern MA and in parts of RI, where double-digit snow totals were fairly common. See comments section for more on snowfall amounts. Where do we go from here? Down, then up. At least in terms of temperature. First we have a disturbance and arctic cold front to come through today and this may generate a few snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon and evening. Though I am not expecting them to be widespread, any area that does get one can have briefly heavy snow and very low visibility, and they can quickly coat roads and make them slippery. So if you are traveling this afternoon and early tonight, be on the look-out for this. The temperature then drops way down tonight, with snow cover only aiding the fall. Some interior areas will go sub-zero (F). Monday, recovery will be modest, with many areas struggling to get back to the 20s. The arctic chill will be brief, however, as a warm front approaches Tuesday and high pressure offshore also sends some moisture in from off the Atlantic to the south. This will combine to produce the risk of some light precipitation. Then Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll be in the battle zone between colder air to the north and milder air to the south, with a couple disturbances in the area. It will be hard to time these until we get a little closer, so the forecast below will reflect this in a general sense and will be tweaked as needed.
TODAY: Sunny through midday. Partly cloudy this afternoon with isolated to scattered snow showers by mid afternoon in southern NH and central MA to CT, by late afternoon anywhere. Highs 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with scattered snow showers and snow squalls, then clearing. Lows -5 to 0 interior valleys, 0-5 most areas, 5-12 coastal and urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22 early then rising overnight. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers Cape Cod and RI morning-midday, eastern MA midday-afternoon. Chance of light snow central MA and southern NH afternoon may mix with or turn to rain. A few rain showers southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 35-43. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 33-40. Highs 45-53.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-53.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
A boundary will likely be in the area for much of this period with disturbances moving along it. This is a period of high uncertainty, detail-wise, but for now it appears that it will start out fairly mild with a risk of rain showers and eventually end up colder with a chance of some snow/ice/rain. Not seeing indications of a large storm during this period, but episodes of unsettled weather with the possibility of some significant temperature fluctuations. Will be looking at this period and fine-tuning in future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
Indications are for a mild overall regime with occasional unsettled weather taking the form of rain more likely than ice/snow, but again we may be near boundaries fairly frequently so quick changes are possible.

9:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
Only minor tweaks to the last update to snowfall amounts, otherwise everything looks about the same as the previous discussion from yesterday afternoon regarding this fairly high impact storm (especially for southeastern MA) today. A quick timeline for snow, which is already falling along the South Coast and the first flakes reaching the South Shore, takes the snow into Boston by late morning then expands it rapidly north and west through the region by midday and through the afternoon. An ending will progress west to east mid to late evening, with Worcester area being out of the snow by around 10PM and Boston by midnight. Snow showers will linger on Cape Cod overnight. Blizzard conditions are likely along the South Shore and across Cape Cod. It’s important to remember that even though these conditions in this storm are predicted for where the heaviest snow totals will be, blizzard conditions are not determined by a snow amount, but rather 3 or more consecutive hours of very low visibility produced by sustained or frequently gusting wind of 35 MPH or greater. The snowfall forecast numbers will be posted below in the detailed forecast and will be similar to those on the previous forecast, but the greatest amounts are still expected over Cape Cod and the South Shore of MA. Once the system pulls away, Sunday will be a day featuring sun and passing clouds. By afternoon and into the evening, some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible as a disturbance and cold front move through from northwest to southeast. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. With a fresh snowcover, it may get especially cold in some areas Monday night and early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, moderation will be noted. By Wednesday, the next low pressure area moving in from the west will send its center northwest of New England, putting this area on the warm side with the threat of rain showers and temperatures quite mild in comparison to the next few days. On to an updated detailed forecast…
TODAY: Snow spreads from southeast to northwest morning through midday and continues through the afternoon, heaviest over southeastern MA. Blowing snow with blizzard conditions at times Plymouth County of MA through Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs 18-23 southwestern NH and central MA, 22-27 elsewhere 27-32 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH early but increasing to 10-25 MPH inland and 15-35 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially south of Boston from the South Shore through Cape Cod and the Islands.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow gradually ending from west to east then some breaking clouds toward dawn but continued snow showers Cape Cod. Snow accumulations 2-5 inches from Lowell to Worcester to Hartford northwestward including southern NH except the immediate coast, 5-9 inches from Newburyport including the immediate NH Seacoast southwestward to northeastern CT including the upper portion of the I-495 belt, 8-12 inches Cape Ann to Boston to Foxboro to much of RI except possibly heavier outer Cape Ann, 10-18 inches over all of Southeastern MA with localized heavier amounts possible portions of the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning snow showers possible Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 20-28. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late day or evening 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5 interior areas, 5-12 coastal areas. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8 interior, 8-15 coast. Highs 33-40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise early morning into 40s. Highs 47-54.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Mild with episodic rain showers January 12-13. January 14 may turn very mild briefly before it cools down for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
Fairly mild pattern still expected with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

4:44PM

This is an extra blog post to update the storm for some changes. Much of the information under the updated section is the same as in the previous post. Another post will be made on Saturday morning.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
We now have a well-sampled weather system by reliable guidance and can safely detail snow amounts for the upcoming event (wave #2). The first one went by Friday morning and delivered the expected snow in most areas, but a few locations actually received more than expected. This is not highly unusual in a cold situation and with some marginal ocean-enhancement. Some totals of 4 to 7 inches occurred where I had only 1 to 3 inches forecast. This is a difference of a very small amount of melted precipitation, so you can see how being off just slightly can have a big impact on your snow forecast. The same applies to the coming situation. It’s going to be a cold storm with fluff factor and ocean enhancement involved again, but I will do my best to try to get this as accurate as possible. The low pressure wave, larger and stronger than the first, is still going to be a very progressive system so it will be basically about a 12 to 15 hour event starting Saturday morning with the first flakes arriving on Cape Cod via ocean effect snow showers, then the storm’s snow shield spreading north northwestward across the region during the morning and midday before pulling away from west to east during the late evening hours. Ocean effect snow showers may linger on Cape Cod until about dawn on Sunday. The snowfall forecast numbers will be posted below in the details forecast and will be higher than on the previous forecast, but the greatest amounts are still expected over Cape Cod and the South Shore of MA. Once the system pulls away, Sunday will be a day featuring sun and passing clouds. By afternoon and into the evening, some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible as a disturbance and cold front move through from northwest to southeast. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night. With a fresh snowcover, it may get especially cold in some areas Monday night and early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, moderation will be noted. On to an updated detailed forecast…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-23. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow develops on Cape Cod early. Snow develops elsewhere during the morning and midday from southeast to northwest. Heaviest snow is likely from the South Shore just south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands during the afternoon. Highs 22-27 except 27-32 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH early but increasing to 10-25 MPH inland and 15-35 MPH and gusty coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow gradually ending from west to east then some breaking clouds toward dawn but continued ocean-effect snow showers Cape Cod. Snow accumulations 1-3 inches from Lowell to Worcester to Hartford northwestward, 3-6 inches from Newburyport southwestward to northeastern CT including the upper portion of the I-495 belt, 6-10 inches Cape Ann to Boston to Foxboro to much of RI except possibly heavier outer Cape Ann, 10-18 inches over all of Southeastern MA with localized heavier amounts possible portions of the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod. Lows 15-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH coast.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning snow showers likelyCape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to +5 interior areas, 5-12 coastal areas. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8 interior, 8-15 coast. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Much milder with a few episodes of rain showers January 11-13. Colder, dry January 14. Next threat of precipitation January 15 may include snow but too far away to be certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Fairly mild pattern with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

3:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
Colder weather has arrived and will last most of this 5-day period. A wave of low pressure will pass southeast of New England today, bringing a period of snow to southeastern MA and RI. Accumulation of snow will be generally minor though enough to shovel and possibly plow mainly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A second wave of low pressure will take a similar path, passing southeast of New England Saturday night. This wave will be larger and a little stronger than the first, and the envelope of snow will likely progress a little further northwest than the first one and be a little heavier as well. Accumulations are again expected to be heaviest over Cape Cod and the Islands but some of this will extend a little further northwest. Some ocean enhancement is possible due to wind off the water over Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore of MA, and possibly outer Cape Ann MA. This exits during the early hours of Sunday although some ocean-effect snow showers may continue into Sunday. During the day on Sunday, a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and a surface cold front will likely cause a round or 2 of snow showers especially in the afternoon. This will introduce the coldest air of the stretch for Sunday night through early Tuesday. But later Tuesday, it will have moderated somewhat, and the dry weather that dominates Monday will continue on Tuesday.
TODAY: Overcast morning with snow of 1-3 inches Cape Cod and Islands, dusting to 1 inch southeastern CT, RI, and southern suburbs of Boston to metro Boston, few flakes or nothing to the northwest. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 15-23. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast morning. Overcast midday and afternoon with snow developing from south to north but probably not reaching south central and southwestern NH as well as north central MA. Highs 26-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with snow of a coating to 1 inch southeastern NH to east central MA eastern CT, 1-3 inches Cape Ann to Boston/Providence, 3-6 inches to the southeast except over 6 inches possible in portions of the South Shore, Cape Cod, and Islands. Partial clearing overnight except lingering snow showers South Shore of MA through Cape Cod. Lows 16-23. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Morning snow showers likely South Shore and Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered snow showers anywhere afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH morning shifting to W afternoon.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 18-25.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-15. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Mild with wet weather January 11. Slightly cooler but still unsettled at times January 12-13. Colder and dry January 14. Possible unsettled weather with rain/snow by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Fairly mild pattern with a couple precipitation events possible, rain favored over snow.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
Cold air dominates the next 5 days. There will be a couple snow threats as waves of low pressure pass soth of New England Friday and early Sunday, but favoring southeastern areas, though an additional disturbance from the northwest may produce scattered snow showers all areas Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly eastern MA, RI, and southeastern CT, accumulating from nothing or a dusting northwest of Boston to 2-4 inches over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind light N to NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of snow possible southeastern areas at night. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow showers likely southeastern areas. Chance of snow showers elsewhere. Lows 15-22. Highs 26-33.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 18-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Turning milder. Risk of unsettled weather mainly January 11-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
Overall mild with a couple precipitation events favoring rain.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)
We transition to cold but not before a fairly mild day today, although a lot of clouds and a gusty breeze will be around as well. Once a cold front passes this evening with a few rain/snow showers, the cold air comes in and hangs around through the coming weekend. We also continue to eye a couple snow threats from waves of low pressure which will pass south of the region Friday and Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Risk of rain showers mainly west and north of Boston late in the day. Highs 46-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers early. Lows 27-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow, favoring southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 16-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow at night favoring southeastern areas. Lows 12-20. Highs 27-34.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow favoring southern and eastern areas. Lows 15-23. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)
Fair and cold start to the period then turning milder with unsettled weather at times January 11-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
Milder pattern with a few episodes of brief unsettled weather with rain showers favored.

2:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
An initial disturbance passing south of New England this morning and early afternoon will bring spotty light drizzle/rain, some of which may freeze on surfaces northwest of I-495 this morning. During this time, a stronger low pressure area will be moving rapidly northeastward through the Mid Atlantic States and will send areas of moderate to heavy rain through southern New England late this afternoon and early tonight. This low will move beyond the region overnight and early Wednesday but it will remain fairly mild until a cold front arrives later in the day Wednesday with one or two rounds of passing showers of rain and snow, rain favoring most areas with any initial shower and snow more possible in areas north and west of Boston if there is a second area as the colder air comes in. Thursday will be a fair but colder day. A wave of low pressure will pass south of the region Friday but may be close enough to bring some light snow to parts of the region, especially southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Fair weather should return Saturday behind this system.
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Scattered light rain/drizzle morning and early afternoon, some freezing on surfaces far northwest of Boston this morning, then more widespread rain which may be heavy at times late-day. Highs 37-45 northwest of Boston, 45-53 Boston southeastward. Wind E up to 10 MPH morning, E to SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times early, tapering off to spotty light rain and drizzle after. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Risk of rain showers mainly west and north of Boston late in the day. Highs 46-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers early. Lows 27-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow, favoring southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 16-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 27-34.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Wave of low pressure should remain offshore and a cold northerly flow may bring a few snow showers January 8 but cannot rule out low pressure to the south passing closer so will watch. Fair and chilly January 9-10. Milder January 11-12 with possible unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Milder pattern with a few episodes of brief unsettled weather with rain showers favored.

1:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
A broad area of low pressure will approach today and then move southwest to northeast through the region during Tuesday. Other than a slight risk of some light freezing rain in north central MA and southwestern NH in the early hours of Tuesday, this will be a plain rain event for the region. This system will pull away on Wednesday and we’ll have a day with lingering clouds, increasing wind, and a fairly mild start but cooler finish. This will lead to a colder ending to the week. An offshore low pressure area may bring some cloudiness to Cape Cod on Thursday, and then another wave of low pressure passing south of the region on Friday will bring more widespread cloudiness and perhaps some snow into parts of the region, but this does not look like a significant system at this time.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast early, spreading north overnight with a slight risk of freezing rain north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 31-40 evening, rising slightly later. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 42-54, coolest southwestern NH north central MA, mildest southeastern MA. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows 35-42. Highs 43-50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows 18-25. Highs 30-38.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas. Lows 18-25. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Continuing to watch the period January 7-8 for the threat of some unsettled weather, with snow favored if moisture is far enough north. Fair weather expected January 9-11. Temperatures below normal early period, near normal late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Unsettled weather returns early in the period but milder air will mean rain will be favored over snow. Fair weather follows with no major cold.

11:41AM

Happy New Year to all of you! Wishing you all the best for 2017!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
High pressure provides a bright and breezy start to 2017 for this first day of the year, though there will be some passing diurnal clouds, cumulus and fractocumulus, blotting out the sun at times. A broad and complex low pressure area will approach Monday, first with a wave of low pressure developing on a warm front south of New England, sending cloudiness into the region though rain should hold off except possibly along the South Coast later in the day. The main low pressure area will then push through from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, bringing a more widespread rain to the region as it will be warm enough both surface and aloft to support just rain. This will be beyond the region by Wednesday which will be a dry and windy day, with a mild start and colder finish. Fair and chilly weather will dominate Thursday as we continue to be in a west to northwest flow pulling in colder air from Canada and the Great Lakes.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-20 interior valleys, 20-28 elsewhere. Wind diminishing to calm.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast early, spreading north overnight. Lows 33-40 evening, rising slightly later. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 42-54, coolest southwestern NH north central MA, mildest southeastern MA. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows 35-42. Highs 43-50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows 18-25. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
Continuing to watch the period January 6-8 for the threat of some unsettled weather, with snow/mix favored if moisture is far enough north. There is about an equal chance at this point that this activity passes south of New England. Fair weather expected January 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
Jet stream shifts back to the north with milder but at times unsettled weather. Low confidence this far out and will fine tune.

1:50AM

I would like to thank each and every one of you for following this blog not only during 2016, but going all the way back to its beginning at the end of 2010! Please celebrate the new year responsibly and safely. Best wishes to all for a happy and healthy 2017!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
High pressure retreats to the east today and tonight as we say goodbye to 2016 and welcome 2017, a low pressure area tracking eastward just north of New England will send an area of precipitation eastward across southern New England, but this will be a relatively minor event. The time frame and temperature profile will result in snow for western to north central MA, northwestern CT, and southwestern NH by mid evening with some minor accumulation possible, so watch for a few potentially slippery spots for walking and driving. Toward midnight, the area of precipitation should be from the I-495 to I-95 belt from southeastern NH through eastern MA down into CT and northwestern RI as a mix of snow and rain, and after midnight areas to the southeast will see just light rain as it will be too mild there to support snow. By Sunday morning, it’s all offshore and a weak area of high pressure approaching from NY State will result in fair and nice weather for the first day of the new year. This high will drift eastward through Maine into the Canadian Maritimes during Monday as a broad and complex low pressure area begins its approach from the southwest, bringing cloudiness into the region by Monday, possibly wet weather by Monday night, and certainly by Tuesday. This looks like a rain event but icing may be possible at the start if it arrives Monday night. This system will move away on Wednesday and fair weather will return, but colder air lagging behind will allow it to be a mild day.
TODAY: Sun dimmed at times by variable high cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early gradually shifting to W then SW.
EVENING: Clouding over. A period of snow southwestern NH, western to central MA, northwestern CT with minor accumulation possible here. A period of snow and rain with no accumulation of snow expected in southeastern NH, northeastern and east central MA, southeastern CT, and northwestern RI. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
OVERNIGHT: Mainly cloudy. A period of light rain southeastern RI and southeastern MA. Lows 27-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20-30 elsewhere. Wind light varaible.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of ice/rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Highs 46-53.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Watch the period January 6-8 for the risk of some snow/mix but activity may stay to the south. This period will likely be book-ended by fair and chilly days January 5 and 9 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
The next time frame to watch for possible unsettled weather is January 11-13 but somewhat milder weather is expected during this period.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces today, especially this morning. Melting/drying should take place during the day with a gusty wind and dry weather behind the departing storm of yesterday. The next system will be much weaker, moving in from the west and producing only a little light snow for New Year’s Eve Saturday night except light rain near the South Coast. This will exit early Sunday, the first day of 2017, with a generally dry and pleasant day expected as high pressure moves in, but this will quickly slip off to the east and broad low pressure from the southwest will bring at least cloudiness and the threat of some wet weather later Monday into Tuesday.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces especially morning. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows 27-35.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers South Coast early. Highs 38-46.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/ice late day or night. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
Fair and somewhat colder January 4-6. Risk of snow/mix around January 7-8.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Fair weather early in the period. Unsettled weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

1:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Nothing fancy. Let’s get right to the facts and my best shot at forecasting this upcoming storm and the weather heading out of 2016 and into the early days of 2017. First, the storm. No big surprises or breaking news here. Still looking at a parent low pressure system moving into southeastern Canada and giving way to a newly developing low on its trailing front, moving from off the Delmarva / NJ coast later today to across far southeastern New England this evening and then into Downeast Maine by early Friday, heading into the Canadian Maritime Provinces from there. What does this mean for southern New England? It means an area of snow/mix/rain moving in from west to east this morning and midday, snow mainly higher elevations western and northern areas of MA and into southern NH, rain to the south and with a mix area in between. As the new low takes over some heavier rain will move up across parts of RI and eastern MA later in the day and evening. The rain/snow line will likely progress pretty far to the west, to the vicinity of the Connecticut River. An exception may be the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH which may hold onto snow for most of if not all of the event. This very fast-moving system will then will drag colder air in behind itself as it moves beyond the region. The question is does the cold air come in quickly enough to change the rain to snow all the way to the coast in MA and NH before the precipitation comes to an end. I believe it will have the greatest chance of changing in the northern reaches of the I-495 belt eastward to the I-95 belt in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, but here it would be brief enough to limit snow accumulation at the very end of the event. Will monitor and update. See forecast periods below for expected accumulations. I expect all precipitation to be done by around midnight. Once the system accelerates away, look for strong and gusty winds overnight and into Friday, which will gradually diminish later Friday. Any snow on the ground and standing water will start to freeze up in the early hours of Friday. With luck some of the pavements will dry quickly in the strong and gusty wind, but be aware of potential icy areas Friday morning, even where snow did not fall. Looking ahead to the final day of 2016 on Saturday, a weak system will approach from the west and may bring a few snow showers to the region later at night, though it may be mild enough for a few rain drops near the South Coast. This will exit early Sunday, the first day of 2017, with a generally dry and pleasant day expected as high pressure moves in, but this will quickly slip off to the east and a broad area of low pressure organizing to the southwest will spread cloudiness into the region during Monday, and depending on timing, it may get wet before the day is over.
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain develops west to east morning-midday with minor accumulation of snow possible in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH, then rain dominant except in highest elevations for most of the day. Highs 33-45, coldest in highest elevations of north central MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH in southeastern MA late.
TONIGHT: Overcast evening. Mix/snow highest elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, rain elsewhere, then changing to mix/snow eastward across northern MA and southern NH but remaining as mainly rain elsewhere, then all ending southwest to northeast by midnight. Snow accumulations of a coating to 2 inches mainly west of I-95 in southeastern NH and northeastern MA as well as the hills of central and south central MA and northern CT, building to 4-8 inches in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to NE then NW to the west of the storm track, SW then W to the east of the storm track, eventually W all areas 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH except 50-55 MPH southeastern MA later at night.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces especially morning. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows 27-35.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers South Coast early. Highs 38-46.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/ice late day or night. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Complex but weak storm system brings a chance of rain at least early January 3 before fair and slightly colder weather returns later and continues January 4-5. Next unsettled weather threat comes late in the period with odds favoring rain over snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather most likely to start and end this period with dry weather in between. Temperatures near to above normal.

3:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
High pressure brings dry and chilly weather today. The much-talked-about “false nor’easter” arrives on Thursday. No, this storm will not be a classic nor’easter. What we have is a parent low pressure area on the Pacific jet stream moving rapidly across southeastern Canada – a common storm track in this pattern. The front that trails from it will focus energy and moisture and with some upper level support a new low pressure area will form on the front and strengthen fairly quickly as it tracks from off the New Jersey coast to across far southeastern New England by Thursday evening then accelerating into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes Friday morning and beyond. For southern New England, the initial precipitation before the second storm forms will move in from west to east during the morning and midday, mainly as snow/mix far inland and rain possibly starting as mix further east. The second storm will only serve to pull in warmer air from off the ocean and bring largely a rain event a good portion of the region with the exception of higher elevations from north central MA and southwestern NH westward through western MA and northwestern CT. It is in these areas that 4 or more inches of snow are very likely. Any snow further east will have to wait until the storm is accelerating away. Only then will enough cold air flow in to start changing rain to snow, but this will also occur as the precipitation is getting ready to exit. So the drop off in snowfall may be very rapid with perhaps 2-4 inches in the I-495 belt especially north of the Mass Pike, and 2 inches or less to the east. It may never snow at all along the coast from Cape Ann to Boston and especially to the south. This area is a bit of a wildcard and it will come down to a tight squeeze in timing. Behind this comes a blustery and colder but dry day Friday. Looking ahead to New Year’s Eve on Saturday, a dry day is expected, but at night a weak low pressure system approaching from the west may bring a little light snow. This does not look like a significant system at all and may just add to the festive atmosphere of the evening. This should move out by the morning of the first day of 2017.
TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Sun prevails in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 23-31. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix develops in the morning southwestern NH and higher elevations of central MA into northwestern CT. Mix to rain developing in areas to the east later morning and midday. Highs 32-40 occurring late-day. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain except snow higher elevations of southern NH, central MA, and northwestern CT. Then precipitation changing to mix/snow from west to east as it tapers off from southwest to northeast later at night. See above for accumulation forecast. Temperatures ranging from near 32 in snow areas to 40-45 Cape Cod during the evening falling to 27-35 overnight. Wind S to SE shifting to E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to NE then N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sun and clouds day. Clouds with a risk of some light snow at night. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40. Evening to nighttime temperatures generally 27-33.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 37-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Low pressure area approaches on January 2 with a chance of mix to rain into January 3 before departing with drier weather returning. Generally fair and colder January 4-5 then a risk of some unsettled weather by January 6.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
Pattern remains generally the same, temperatures averaging on the milder side of normal with a little unsettled weather at times mainly early and again late in the period.

2:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)
For the final 5 days of 2016, an active weather pattern we will see here in southern New England. It starts with the passage of a cold front this morning, with mild temperatures and rain showers, followed by a drying and cooling trend behind the front during the afternoon. Colder air will settle in tonight and Wednesday as high pressure moves toward the region from the west. This high will then push off to the east by Thursday as the next area of low pressure moves eastward across eastern Canada. Its cold front will approach New England from the west but as it gets to the northern Mid Atlantic, a new low will form on it and intensify as it tracks from near the NJ coast to likely over southeastern MA by early Friday, before exiting via the Gulf of Maine while deepening during Friday. First, the big question will be the track of the new storm and the rain/snow line that will set up somewhere in the area. Though there will likely be rapid redevelopment and intensification of low pressure off the New Jersey coast that will then track toward far southeastern New England, it will be a very progressive system and not have a lot of time for cold air to become established widespread across the region. So at this time leaning toward a wetter versus whiter scenario for all of southeastern MA and RI into parts of east central MA and southeastern NH, with more snow as you go back to the west and north. Will work on snow amounts for the next post. Behind this will come a shot of cold air for the end of the week. A weak break-away low pressure system from a larger system in the Midwest will bring the chance of some light snow later on New Year’s Eve.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with rain showers ending. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Developing precipitation during the day, ending overnight, falling as mix to rain southeastern areas possibly ending as snow, snow to mix/rain likely ending as snow northwestern areas. Will refine this forecast on next post. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 22-30. Highs 30-38.
SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly sunny day. Mostly cloudy evening. Chance of light snow late night. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)
New Year’s Day a weak system should bring light rain/snow showers. A larger system may bring mix to rain later January 2 into early January 3 followed by drier weather later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)
No major changes to the overall pattern. A couple of precipitation threats, with rain favored over mix/snow. Temperatures above normal.

2:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
The pattern remains similar to what we’ve been seeing with a general storm track across the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. These systems drag their fronts through New England and produce our precipitation threats, often rain-dominated, but sometimes other precipitation types occur depending on timing and local conditions. We’ll be dealing with 2 of these systems during this period, one today to early Tuesday, and another one on Thursday. If the moisture sneaks in quickly enough, some spotty flakes of snow and pellets of ice may develop in parts of the region during the day today as clouds become dominant. By evening and tonight, warm enough air will result in just rain showers, although cold air trapped near the ground may allow any of that rain to freeze on some surfaces in interior northern MA into southern NH for a while before it eventually warms up enough there to eliminate that issue. This system will push offshore putting an end to the rain showers early Tuesday. A period of dry weather will follow through Wednesday. But the quick-moving pattern brings the next system in on Thursday. For now, this system looks like largely a rain event as a redevelopment of low pressure on the passing front will likely be occurring too late and in the wrong position to be the type of system that would result in significant snowfall. However, cold air moving in quickly on the back side may mean a brief period of snow for some areas at the end, provided moisture hangs around long enough. The end of the week should end up dry but much colder.
TODAY: Clouding up. Spotty light snow/sleet showers possible midday and afternoon. Late-day highs 30-36 southern NH and northern MA and 37-44 southeastern MA and RI. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely except brief freezing rain possible in portions of southern NH and interior northern MA. Patchy fog. Temperatures rise to 38-48. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with rain showers ending. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, may end as mix/snow some areas at night. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 22-30. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
New Year’s Eve outlook: Dry and cold. New Year’s Day outlook: Snow/mix to rain but does not look like a strong weather system. Another system may bring precipitation, favoring rain, later January 2 into January 3. Should dry out by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
Same general pattern with 1 or 2 precipitation threats. Rain favored over snow but far too early for any high confidence.