DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Our block goes on and the long-talked-about storm system at the end of the week is almost here, since it’s almost the end of the week! No changes from yesterday’s thought process, so this is basically a repeat of that. Elongating low pressure redevelops off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks just south of New England, possibly over the Islands and Outer Cape Cod through Friday to a position just east of New England Saturday, before moving away, with upper level low pressure still to swing through during the weekend. The unsettled results will be re-outlined in the detailed forecast section below. Still looking for dry, chilly weather to start next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast, especially higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH where a coating to 1 inch of snow may fall initially. Lows 31-38 evening followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward, mildest over Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coast, may shift to S late day over Cape Cod and Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain likely through the evening hours, tapering off to rain showers overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind briefly variable around Cape Cod otherwise E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to W overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers may turn to snow showers from west to east before ending. Highs 38-45 morning, then turning colder. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Mainly dry, seasonably cold for the first couple days of this period. Keeping an eye on the December 22-23 period for a potential storm system in which it’s far to soon to discuss any details. Cold with lingering snow showers for Christmas Eve assuming current timing is correct.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

One or two potential disturbances with precipitation chances, otherwise mostly dry with temperatures averaging below normal. Will be able to go into more detail on the late days of December soon.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Large scale blocking goes on, driven by Canadian high pressure. A large offshore storm pushed a cold front through the region overnight, accompanied by snow showers, which coated the ground in some places, but much of that then blew into crevices by strong winds behind the front. The gusty winds will continue today but with lots of sun and passing clouds. A few of these clouds may produce a snow flurry, but the better chance of this will be over Cape Cod. It will feel quite a bit colder than yesterday, even though the temperature is only slightly lower, due to the stronger wind and resultant wind chill effect. The gusty wind keeps up this evening then starts to relax overnight while shifting to northeast as low pressure to the east starts to lose influence and high pressure to the north drives the air flow. With time, that will combine with the air flow around the approaching low from the southwest, turning the wind more easterly as Thursday goes on. This brings in ocean stratus, while clouds from the approaching low will be coming in above those, so Thursday turns out to have little or no sun. Low pressure is set to track just south of our region on Friday, an elongation / redevelopment of an initial storm that was entering the Great Lakes region, as described in previous discussions. It’s pretty apparent now that this will be a mainly rain event for the WHW forecast area, although there could be some snow with a bit of accumulation at the start over interior higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH, but too much mild air from the ocean means all areas are rain for the bulk of the event. There may be a decent temperature contrast on Friday, as the storm’s main precipitation shield passes through, depending on the exact track of low pressure. If it comes up across far southeastern MA, a quick jump to 50+ temps may occur over Cape Cod and the Islands, while it’s quite a bit cooler off to the north and west. As low pressure pulls away on Saturday, improvement will be slow to occur, and the return of colder air means that precipitation can switch from rain back to snow …. however … this will be taking place after the main precipitation has departed, so I am only expecting a transition from lingering rain showers to snow showers. Colder air moves in for Sunday but the passage of upper level low pressure and a trough that was once the initial storm means a few snow showers may occur. Otherwise expecting a mainly dry Sunday.

TODAY: Sun, occasional passing clouds. A few snow showers possible near eastern coastal MA but especially Cape Cod. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast, especially higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH where a coating to 1 inch of snow may fall initially. Lows 31-38 evening followed by a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward, mildest over Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest coast, may shift to S late day over Cape Cod and Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain likely through the evening hours, tapering off to rain showers overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind briefly variable around Cape Cod otherwise E to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to W overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers may turn to snow showers from west to east before ending. Highs 38-45 morning, then turning colder. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A dry, cold pattern is expected for a good portion of the week leading up to Christmas, but we’ll be watching for low pressure to impact the region late in the week – far too soon to speculate on any details with this possible system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)

One or two potential disturbances with precipitation chances, otherwise mostly dry with temperatures averaging near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Not making any changes to the ongoing forecast at this point in time. Large scale blocking pattern continues as high pressure sits to our north and northeast. A large low pressure area to our east will do a loop and at its closest pass helps initiate some snow showers, especially across Cape Cod, Wednesday. Low pressure heads for the Great Lakes Thursday, energy elongates, and new low pressure forms off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday night and Friday. While the exact track of that low is still TBD, it will likely bring a good swath of moisture across our region during this time frame, with odds favoring rain in coastal areas and rain/mix/snow further inland with mix/snow more likely in higher elevations. Still can’t detail it more than that. Will be able to add more detail tomorrow and certainly by Thursday morning’s update. I do expect precipitation to linger into early Saturday from the first part of the system…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Possible snow showers near eastern coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast. Lows 31-38 evening, may rise overnight. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, but some mix/snow possible interior higher elevations. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain likely but some mix/snow possible interior areas especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with rain except mix/snow possible interior higher elevations, then breaking clouds with a possible rain or snow shower. Highs 39-46 by midday but turning colder during the afternoon. Wind variable becoming N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Upper level low pressure crosses the region December 18 with a few snow showers possible. Generally dry and chilly weather is expected early to middle of next week then may have to watch a system for a precipitation threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)

One or two potential disturbances with precipitation chances, otherwise mostly dry with temperatures averaging near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Low pressure that produced a Sunday evening snow event exits to the east, pushed out by high pressure today, but some ocean-effect snow showers continue for part of the morning in the MA South Shore to Cape Cod area. The large high, which is centered over eastern Canada, is part of a blocking pattern which also features a sprawling low pressure circulation to its south, and our east. For the most part we are dry and chilly into midweek, but the low to the east gets close enough by Wednesday so that its circulation may help kick off some coastal snow showers that day. As it pulls to the east, the next low pressure area to our west will approach and move in by the end of the week. There is still some uncertainty as to the detail of how it plays out. A main low pressure area approaches the Great Lakes and a new one should form near or just off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, the track of this ultimately helping to determine precipitation type. Leaning toward a rain event for the coast and rain/mix/snow over the interior with fine-tuning to do.

TODAY: Clouds give way to a sun/cloud mix. Snow showers through mid morning MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Possible snow showers near eastern coastal areas. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arriving overnight, may start as snow away from the coast. Lows 31-38 evening, may rise overnight. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, but some mix/snow possible interior higher elevations. Highs 38-45 north and west of Boston, 45-52 Boston southeastward. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low pressure departs Saturday – rain/mix may end as snow. Upper level low pressure crosses the region Sunday with a few snow showers possible. Generally dry and chilly weather is expected early to middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Two potential disturbances with precipitation chances around December 22 and again later in the period. Overall pattern is mostly dry with variable temperatures averaging near to below normal.

Another week, another C-19 chat post. I’ve nothing much to say here except during the last few days I feel like I have recovered 100% from my bout with it. No more fatigue. No more feeling winded when I walk. None of it. I’m back to 100% and in some ways even stronger than I was before getting it. Anyway, carry on…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Quick Sunday update today! A small low pressure area advancing eastward runs into a big blocking high and expends the last of its moisture over our area later today and tonight, resulting in a minor snowfall for most areas, before the system redevelops to the south and scoots eastward, to become part of a larger low pressure circulation south of blocking high pressure. Surface high pressure will control Monday through Thursday with dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few snow showers may be around the South Shore to South Coast of MA especially morning. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except rain/mix/snow South Coast. Potential snow accumulation mostly less than 1 inch except 1-2 inches interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA to northwestern RI, and up to around 3 inches possible in isolated locations. Lows 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Blocking continues. High pressure to our north, one storm system to track heading toward the Great Lakes but doing more of a pivot track as the energy elongates and redevelops further east. Leaning toward the axis of low pressure staying just south of New England with precipitation impact window December 16 into the weekend. Initial leaning is for a rain/mix beginning and more of a snow or snow shower ending to the system. However, a lot of fine-tuning will be needed so it’s far too early to even think about locking into anything. Cold, dry weather later in the period as high pressure regains control.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)

Blocking pattern continues but shifts a bit with high pressure nudging eastward from eastern Canada to Greenland and another high building into western Canada. This opens the door for more potential cold from the Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast. Sometimes when this type of a shift takes place you get a disturbance running through the Great Lakes or somewhere in that vicinity, a brief milder interlude then a shot of cold. It’s too early to know how it plays out for sure but that’s one possibility as we head toward Christmas.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

You’ve heard it over and over now – blocking blocking blocking. So I won’t go on in detail this update. High pressure from Greenland extending into eastern Canada. Low pressure taking shape to its south in the Atlantic. There’s the basic set-up. Today we become blanketed across the area with a layer of stratus clouds from the ocean – in fact much of the region is already covered by it as I write this, and some ocean-effect snow showers are ongoing from the MA South Shore to the South Coast region. I was a bit reluctant to go for these initially, but the moisture is there, and they are there, so look for these occasionally today into this evening, and some of them may result in a small accumulation, up to 1 inch or so, favoring the colder surfaces. The lower clouds will likely remain in place through Sunday, although the ocean-effect snow shower activity will diminish. However, as this is going on, a small low pressure area in the process of running into blocking high pressure will be moving into our area from the west. It will have enough moisture with it when it arrives to produce a shield of precipitation – mainly in the form of snow but mix/rain over Cape Cod and the immediate South Coast – on Sunday evening. As the dry air wins the battle, the area of precipitation will shrink, break up, and eventually be pushed out to the southeast, but not before a minor snowfall accumulation occurs, especially from the Monadnocks of NH through central MA and into eastern CT and northwestern RI, where up to 2 inches may occur. Further east, only coatings to locally 1 inch of snow is expected. With recent mild weather, the ground is still warm enough so this accumulated snow will not really hang around for long, and it will likely vanish as dry weather returns to the region on Monday. From the Monday to Wednesday period of next week, as the block remains in place, the surface features will be high pressure to our northwest and a broad low pressure circulation over the ocean to the eastern of New England. We stay dry for the most part, though a disturbance passing by around Tuesday may cause a few snow showers, and we see an increase in wind and temperatures that will be seasonably chilly – even a touch below normal by midweek.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers MA South Shore to South Coast including RI – minor accumulations of generally under 1 inch expected. Highs 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional snow showers continue MA South Shore to South Coast, and RI, and maybe as far north as immediate Boston area, again with minor accumulation possible. Lows 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A few snow showers may be around the South Shore of MA especially morning. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except rain/mix/snow South Coast. Potential snow accumulation less than 1 inch except 1-2 inches interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA to northwestern RI. Lows 26-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a brief passing snow shower. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Blocking continues. Expecting high pressure stretching across eastern Canada and a storm track to our south in general, but during this period I’m only expecting to have to watch one main system. Adjusting the window slightly to December 16 into the December 17-18 weekend. That doesn’t mean a 3-day storm, necessarily, it just means we have 3 days as the window to watch for potential impact from that passing low pressure area. More precise timing, precipitation types/locations, and overall impact can be focused on as the event gets closer. Based on the current expected time window I’d expect dry and seasonably chilly weather to be back with us later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

I’m basically leaving this unchanged from yesterday’s update. Blocking continues, but large scale pattern configuration shifts a little with high pressure’s core in Canada shifting back toward Greenland as another high pressure area builds through the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. The troughiness between that opens the door for additional cold weather, perhaps some arctic air, coming out of Canada into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, but mostly minor weather systems – i.e., no big storms. But again that is far out there and a lot of monitoring and fine-tuning (as I often say) will be needed as we head down the home stretch toward Christmas…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

A blocking pattern will be in control of our weather for the foreseeable future. This pattern features high pressure at upper levels over Greenland extending into eastern Canada, and for this period of time will thwart storm systems from fully impacting our region. Surface high pressure in eastern Canada provides fair and chilly weather today. Two low pressure systems make runs at the Northeast from the west during the course of the weekend. The first will fall apart well to our west sending only high and mid level clouds into our region Saturday as some lower clouds also move in from the ocean due to a northeasterly air flow at the surface. The second low will have slightly more success getting far enough east to give us a heavier overcast and its snow shield will be pushing into the region Sunday evening while it is running into the high and drying up. Net result – minor snow event, favoring western portions of the WHW forecast area, i.e. southwestern NH through central MA to eastern CT. With milder air in place, any of this that reaches the South Coast region would probably be at least mixed with if not all rain – but very light amounts would occur either way. High pressure regains control of the weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow by late afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Guidance: Until GFS is fixed, cannot rely on it for this period of time. Typical beyond-day-4 uncertainties applied to other guidance along with known biases. Blocking continues. The high pressure area will likely be elongated from southern Greenland through eastern Canada during this period, with an upper level trough over the US Midwest to Northeast. Watching the December 15-17 window for a storm chance. Again guidance solutions (ensembles) are very wide-ranging with this system telling us there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the outcome for this area. My current idea is that we see a low pressure area that will head toward the Great Lakes initially but unable to continues, therefore undergoing some kind of redevelopment / east southeast movement. Questions to be answered include what type / variety of precipitation if we get direct impact, or does it end up moving so far south we get skirted or even missed? Fair, colder weather returns for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Early hints are upper high pressure scoots back toward Greenland with another upper high in western Canada. In between is the trough position with disturbances dropping out of Canada, through the Great Lakes and Northeast. Again remember that with guidance uncertainties and the typical “too far in the future for details” applied that we can’t have any kind of high confidence on day-to-day details, but the idea is a chilly pattern with a couple opportunities for precipitation – probably favoring snow over rain. But we have a long way to go to fine-tune this pre-Christmas period of time everybody will be paying close attention to.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)

A much-talked-about blocking pattern will control our weather in the days ahead. While often there is an assumption that blocking means we are in for days of unsettled weather (perhaps cold and snow in winter, overcast with rain and drizzle in spring), this is not necessarily the case. The resultant weather in any given location comes down to the details of the block and where systems are located and how they move. It’s complex. Focusing on this particular 5-day period, we find that mostly dry weather will be in control with Canadian high pressure centered to our north. Disturbances will be generally passing to our south, but one will make a more solid run at us later in the weekend, likely to be thwarted by the high to the north – the result being that it will have only minimal impact on us. Nevertheless, it’s worth watching closely because a slightly weaker high and/or a slightly stronger low and the results could be more significant.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the afternoon favoring central MA, southwestern NH, and snow or rain in eastern CT and RI. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, except rain/mix along the coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Blocking pattern continues. One storm threat comes mid to late period – timing and precipitation type uncertain. Details to be worked out. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern expected to continue. Obviously low confidence but one or two systems may bring some precipitation to the region during this period. Temperatures variable – averaging near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A complex blocking pattern is taking shape and will have direct impact on our weather in the days ahead. First, a slow-moving trough and frontal system being slowed by a large high pressure area near Greenland will give us wet and mild weather today before a cold front pushes through, and Canadian high pressure brings dry, slightly colder weather for late week. The weekend has been carrying some uncertainty in its outlook for a few days now and this continues. We’ll have a large high pressure area extending across eastern Canada while low pressure sits off to our south, drifting to the east. The question is how close does this low come to us, and how much does the air flow between the low to the south and the high to the north add moisture to our weather to increase the chance of unsettled weather. Guidance, some of which is very unreliable, continues to vary on this. I continue to lean toward a lot of clouds, but mostly precipitation-free weather for the weekend at this time, but will continue to keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

It’s important to keep in mind that this continues to be a low confidence outlook with a complex blocking pattern and uncertain guidance performance. There are 2 potential storm systems that can impact the region with some kind of precipitation during this period. Temperatures may be variable but should average close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Low confidence but anticipating a blocking pattern will be continuing with near to below normal temperatures and at least one threat of precipitation. As previously stated, there will be a lot of monitoring and clarification needed as we go through time.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

A developing blocking pattern will slow weather systems down, and this will be evident as we enter a 2-day stretch of unsettled weather from a system, that in a progressive pattern, could pass through in a matter of hours. First a warm front approaches today, clouds take over, but rain holds back until sometime this evening across most areas, then we get into frequently wet weather through a good portion of Wednesday as first a warm front passes, then a cold front approaches.. As low pressure drifts north of our region, the cold front will finally move through Wednesday night and into the early hours of Thursday. For Thursday’s daytime through Friday, high pressure from Canada will nose into our region with dry weather. While this is going on, the next low pressure area will be heading in this direction via the Midwest, but it’s also going to be a slow mover, and may be pushed far enough south so that we only see its cloudiness for the start of the weekend, but its precipitation stays out of our region. Not a high confidence portion of the forecast still, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Expecting blocking to continue but still not totally clear on how it impacts our weather directly. Current feeling is low pressure is held to the south for the most part, but occasional clouds and a touch of unsettled weather on the northern edge of an initial system may get in here early in the period and a better chance of getting a larger impact system in comes later in the period – but don’t take this as a guarantee of anything specific. There remains a lot of questions about the pattern and what it results in here. One extremely broken main piece of computer guidance (recent GFS model “upgrade”) is not going to help figure anything out either.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Continued expectation that at least some form of a blocking pattern will continue and the trend is seasonably cool with a slightly increased for an episode of wintry weather in here somewhere, otherwise a mainly dry pattern. Much fine-tuning to come (you’ll hear this for a while, yet).

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

An area of high pressure slides offshore to our east today but we’ll have a nice early December day, and then things shift in an unsettled direction. This takes place as a frontal boundary heads our way from the west, but fairly slowly. Its parent low pressure area, passing to our north later Tuesday through Wednesday, will be slowing down in response to a developing blocking pattern in the atmosphere, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. By Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will have pushed offshore and Canadian high pressure will poke in enough to dry us out, along with cooler, but not-too-cold weather. Some guidance brings wet weather right back in as early as Friday, but I’m leaning away from this idea right now in favor of high pressure holding it off to our south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Breaking clouds overnight. areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

What we do know: The weather will be driven by a blocking pattern. What’s more uncertain: How the pieces in the atmosphere work together to give us our day-to-day weather. For now, I lean toward high pressure to the north of us being just strong enough to largely hold off a couple lows to our south at first, then giving way to the low pressure at some point later in the period. A low confidence outlook here is for mostly dry weather for the weekend of December 10-11 but maybe with lots of clouds around at times, then a cloudier and potentially wetter (maybe some frozen precipitation too) weather early next week. Obviously lots of fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-20)

Expecting the Greenland block to drive the overall pattern, but what is not certain is exact position of features and strength of the block, so the range of possibilities with our weather is rather wide. Also the ability to drive pure cold air right into our region may be somewhat limited by the set-up, so temperatures may hang closer to normal rather than falling below normal. For now leaning toward a drier pattern overall but having to watch storminess making runs at the region.

Updated C-19 chat post for this week…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather today but there will be a gusty breeze as the high center is off to the south a little and low pressure sits over eastern Canada. The high moves off to the east Monday, another fair weather day with a bit milder air. The next low pressure area, tracking north of our region toward midweek, drags a frontal boundary toward us later Tuesday and Wednesday, but it takes its time, and we get a mild southerly air flow along with unsettled weather as a result. Right now, cautious optimism leads to a forecast of drier and slightly cooler weather on Thursday as the front pushes through and Canadian high pressure noses into the region.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain developing in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Blocking pattern is expected, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. At the same time there will be some persistence of a ridge in the southeastern US. This pattern likely means a stretch of unsettled weather as we’re caught between as disturbances try to pass through the weakness between highs. For this period, it looks like any precipitation will more likely be in the form of liquid than frozen as it may be hard to establish cold in the region, but this is not a certainty as this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Greenland block drives the pattern. A lot of uncertainty here with indications, based on the position of the block, that we can see storms pushed to our south ranging all the way to ones that try cutting through the Great Lakes. I think the take-away for the moment is unsettled but not overly so, and variable temperatures, with a lot to work out in the days ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Low pressure moving east northeastward across southeastern Canada will drag a frontal boundary through our region by this evening, with a round of rain showers ahead of it and another along it – so an unsettled Saturday. Fair weather returns with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday before the next system from the west brings more unsettled weather in the form of rainfall as mild air dominates Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 36-43. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. We will be near additional unsettled weather systems as this transition takes place but it’s hard to tell which days will feature more clouds and unsettled weather at this point. Fine-tuning to come. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. There are also trends on some recent guidance that the magnitude of the cold may not be quite that grand – more of a near to below normal style chill. Monitoring in progress – clarification to come ahead.