DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Summer ends today. Oops. I mean the feel of summer in November ends today. Our warm spell comes to an end after one more day of well above normal temperatures to start the week. A cold front is moving across the region as I write this discussion shortly after sunrise, accompanied by lots of clouds, though a nice sunrise was seen in some eastern areas, including a morning rainbow here at Woods Hill as rain showers approached from the west. This front crosses the region by midday with its briefly unsettled weather, then exits the region, but we’ll have already warmed nicely, and the much cooler air lags the frontal boundary by several hours, so we get the bonus warmth today before we feel the chill set in tonight on a gusty breeze. Canadian high pressure then brings us dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, a gusty breeze Tuesday with the high center still to the north, and lighter wind Wednesday as the high center comes right over the region. By Thursday and Friday, the high shifts offshore and we see a moderation in temperature, with fair weather through Thursday. But on Friday – Veterans Day – we will see an increase in cloudiness ahead of both an approaching trough from the west and low pressure from the south. The latter is currently Subtropical Storm Nicole to the east of the Bahamas. Nicole is expected to meander generally westward, passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday and reaching Florida Thursday, before turning northward and moving across the Southeast States and likely off the East Coast, approaching our region by late Friday just as a trough starts to move in from the west. As it stands now, I’m reasonably confident that we’ll see dry weather through the daylight hours of Friday, including for any Veterans Day ceremonies / parades. It is late in the day and especially at night when we’re likely to see the wet weather arrive from these approaching systems…
TODAY: Clouds and rain showers cross the region from west to east morning. Sun returns west to east late morning through afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ falls through 50s later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers likely by end-of-day, rain at night. Highs 59-66. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable and gusty at night.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
Stormy start to weekend as low pressure passes by November 12, then exits with dry, windy, cool weather for the November 13. Overall theme into next week is dry with below normal temperatures.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period with passing low pressure, then a return to mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures as we’ll be in a new weather pattern which will have shifted the warmth out and the November chill in.